UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

While I do agree Chris can win with wrestling, it’s important to note how badly weidmans athelticism has declined. His takedown attempts nowadays are so slow and telegraphed it’s insane; you can tell he’s gonna shoot from a mile away. And he’s just simply not atheltic anymore; everything he does is done in like half speed and he just can’t move the same. Some of his td attempts in the Akhmedov fight were just sad to watch. Plus now, he’s 3-4 years older since that fight and broke his leg badly, so I doubt he’s gonna move the same at all. He also death gassed in that fight as well; if Tavares defends a few takedowns I thjnk weidman is in for a very long (or short) night 

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 12:04 PM ET *

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Mario Bautista, TKO, R2
Don't love the short turnaround time for Blackshear. 2 weight cuts in 7 days? I'll pass.

Vera vs. Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz
Vera is a slow starter. He needs more urgency, plus his last two fights were scheduled for 5 rounds so he has less time to work.

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, DEC
Just don't think the athleticism is there for Weidman anymore.

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Gregory Rodrigues, SUB
FDGTD. G-Rod's ground game gives him the advantage

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Andre Petroski, TKO, R1
Petroski wins via Ground and Pound

I hope O'Malley will win by disqualification 

I honestly think both Taveres and Weidman should retire after this fight. I highly doubt Weidman is going to look good, and Tavares hasn't looked too sharp since 2018. That being said, I think Taveres still has one or two more good performances left and will probably win this fight

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 4:30 PM ET *

Does anyone else think that this fight could get ugly? Weili is a phenomenal grappler, and Lemos best win is a declining Marina Rodriguez. I don't think people realize or remember that Rodriguez is 36 now and lost her last fight horribly. I also just think that if Grasso beats Shevchenko again, the new 1a and 1b for women's p4p at the moment will be Weili and Grasso which would be refreshing since Shevchenko and Nunes have been at that position for years now. Erin Blanchfield and Tatiana Suarez are literally the only threats for the champs in my eyes rn. I don't even think Taila Santos is a legitimate threat

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Aljamain Sterling, SUB, R2
Sterling uses round 1 to get a feel on the range of O'Malley but I do think he ends up taking the back of Sean and it'll be a wrap shortly after. Sean has knockout power and has very good movement that could give Aljo problems but Aljo is so underrated and many just keep sleeping on him. I do think this has the potential to be on of those fights where it seems like an easy Aljo win then he gets knocked out or something but I gotta ride with him. This will get interesting though if Aljo can't get a finish in the early rounds because Sean will always be in your face.

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, TKO, R3
Zhang with a knockout when Lemos gets tired. Lemos is so dangerous in round 1 but she won't be able to keep up with Zhang as this goes on. Zhang is super dominant and she will remain champ. Such a skilled fighter and future HOF.

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R2
Garry should knock Magny out but I will say that Magny is very skilled even though his fights can be boring sometimes. Magny is always live to pull off an upset but the UFC knows what they're doing with Garry. I'm rooting for Neil though.

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Mario Bautista, TKO, R2
Awesome to see Blackshear back in a week but him cutting weight twice is gonna screw him. Bautista will finish a tired Blackshear. Baustista was gonna **** Cody Gabrandt up. This kid is super good.

Vera vs. Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz, DEC
Munhoz will win this fight. Vera isn't a top-5 fighter and you can even argue he doesn't belong in the top-10. He always starts slow and tries to make a comeback when he's down every fight and sometimes he does it by getting a knockout and if he doesn't get that KO he loses. Pedro is a dog and good luck knocking him out too. Pedro probably won't but he also has wrestling in his back pocket. Pedro all day here unless Chito clips him.

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, DEC
If you get knocked out by Tavares that's kinda sad. I do think Tavares stuffs his takedowns because his tdd is insane and pieces Weidman up. I wouldn't be shocked if Chris retires in Boston. I think he's done. He can only wrestle to beat Tavares and good luck getting it there.

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R1
These guys are gonna slug it out until one man falls and I see Denis falling first. I will say that Rodrigues has an extremely sus chin so I wouldn't be shocked if an upset happens but I can't back Denis here even though I do think he's a decent striker. Greg can go for the sub too if he wants.

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
Hubbard and his wrestling will get this one done.

Gibson vs. Katona
Brad Katona, DEC
This fight will be close but I gotta go with Katona because I think he's slightly better than Gibson pretty much everywhere.

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Andre Petroski, TKO, R2
I think Petroski has a good enough defense to be safe from the submission attempts of Gerald and he is a better wrestler than Gerald too. I'm a huge fan of Meershaert and I don't really like Petroski/think he's very good but it's a horrible stylistic matchup for Gerald let's be real here. I see a ground and pound finish for Andre.

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
Lee is tough but Silva is a legit talent. She has everything you want in a fighter event though her record isn't very good but you can't go by that without looking into it most times. Lee will make this a fight but Silva should be able to piece her up.

Moroz vs. Silva
Maryna Moroz, SUB, R3
Moroz is an underrated talented veteran and I think she can survive the first round against Silva here and then get a submission in the third at some point. Silva is extremely dangerous but this is a step up in competition and I know they fought a while ago on the regional scene but I still think Moroz is better.

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R2
I think Magny has more of a chance than the odds give him credit for, but I'm guessing Garry is too fast, powerful, and athletic for him at this point.

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Gregory Rodrigues, SUB, R1
Hopefully Robocop doesn't just try to brawl, because Tiuliulin has a big weakness on the ground.

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
I like both, and Holobaugh looked great in his last fight on the show. But I think Hubbard can stay on top and utilize his well-rounded game.

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Gerald Meerschaert, SUB, R3
Come on gm3, please!

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, DEC
plz dont get knocked out weedman

Gibson vs. Katona
Brad Katona, DEC
Double TUF Champ

lol Magny got sonned 

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 6:57 PM ET *

Garry went full SJW. 

@danromanick 

Idk about Rodriguez was declining when Lemos finished her. Rodriguez was on what? A four fight win streak against top 15 contenders which had Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan on it. I haven't seen her last fight so I'll take your word for it, but Rodriguez was very much in that fight against Lemos. Also unless Lemos's TD defense hasn't improved at all, this might be Zhang's most dangerous match up so far on the feet. Maybe even more than Rose tbh.

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 8:14 PM ET *

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Sean O'Malley, DEC
win

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, DEC
fight

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Neil Magny, DEC
win

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Da'Mon Blackshear, DEC
win

Vera vs. Munhoz
Marlon Vera, DEC
fight

Weidman vs. Tavares
Chris Weidman, DEC
win

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Gregory Rodrigues, DEC
win

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
win

Gibson vs. Katona
Brad Katona, DEC
win

Moroz vs. Silva
Karine Silva, SUB, R2
Karine is going to rip that leg sideways leaving Dixon Cider the proud member of a peg legged onlyfans.

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 9:26 PM ET *

Stand Up Phase: 

Both fighters are dynamic strikers in different ways in this fight. Sterling uses heavy volume and his variety of strikes to set up chances for the clinch and eventually finding the TD. O’Malley uses great timing, technique, and speed to overwhelm his OPP until he lands a clean shot and swarms to a finish. In this fight I see O’Malley relying heavily on his counter striking and movement to confuse and frustrate Sterling before setting up a finish. O’Malley is going to have to be active for all 5 rounds to come out on top, his use of stance switching, jabbing with both hands and TB will need to be on point to keep Sterling at bay. However, Sterling does tend to lower his head when going for singles and doubles. Someone with O’Malley’s timing and speed could easily find chances for quick knees or uppercuts up the middle that could be a disaster for Sterling.

Clinch Phase:

It’s clear to most that Sterling has the advantage in grappling. I see Sterling’s great ability in catching kicks and smooth transitions from striking to clinching to be a major deterrent for most of the usual strikes O’Malley likes to use. O’Malley’s TD defense is primarily effective against the cage, however his TD defense in open space is lacking. If Sterling can maintain prolonged clinching with O’Malley, I could easily see Sterling transitioning from a single leg TD to a duck under and finding the back.

Ground Phase: 

Sterling has superior control both on bottom and top on the ground so unless O’Malley has made a dramatic improvement, it will be a matter of time before Sterling finds the back and ultimately the finish. If O’Malley finds himself on the ground, he needs to immediately attempt to regain his guard and find the cage to stand up. 

Prediction: Sterling wins by 2nd Round Sub

I predict Sterling’s movement and volume will keep O’Malley honest enough to where he can’t be completely comfortable in setting up his power shots. Sterling will eventually find the clinch and transition to the back for the finish. Also, due to this being O’Malley’s first 5 round main event, I could see him not having the cardio to keep up with Sterling if he puts on a heavy pace. If you can dictate the place, you can dictate the pace.

Abbreviations:
TD: Takedown OPP: Opponent TB: Teep to the body

people betting on Andrea Lee should donate to a better cause/place than the bookies pockets...

I thought that Andrea Lee would do better in the UFC than she has.

https://wobbld.wordpress.com/2023/08/17/final-predictions-ufc-292/

@tepid55 

 To be fair you could argue that she should be 9-1 instead of that 5-5. Atleast 7-3 would Be More fitting Record, only legit UFC loss was to Araujo IMO.