UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Brad and Cody are both injured so this may play out slower and more measured than many would want.
I expect Brads cuts to open before Cody knee gives out assuming he doesn't just ko him the size difference is pretty funny.

@Joshjeffords 

 

Bro those fights were months ago... they have all healed since than unless new injuries occurred during this camp

(Filming began in February 2023)

* Edited at 08.16.2023, 9:21 PM ET *

Oh I don't have the dates of occurrence I figured was a week or so tape delayed, to avoid leaks and such.

Stand Up Phase:
This fight will be a clash between probably the two heaviest hitters in the strawweight division. Both have decent strike variety, but due to Zhang’s reach disadvantage her strike selection will become muted. Zhang will probably play more of the counter puncher role due to Lemos having, seemingly, better counter punch ability. I predict Zhang to attack Lemos’s lead leg with kicks and throw hook combinations if Lemos rushes in. Lemos will probably establish her strong jab, RLK, and TB to keep Zhang at bay before finding opportunities to land her own 1-2 combinations. 
Clinch Phase:
Zhang has shown herself to be the more competent user within the clinch, electing to use the TC to land strong knees and hooks. I predict Zhang will fight for DU to find trips or find TDs off kicks thrown by Lemos. Lemos’s TD defense, up to this point, has not been strong so that might be a hole that could be exploited. 
Ground Phase:
Zhang has very good scramble ability as well as being active on bottom landing hooks and elbows. I expect Zhang to have the better control, and if the opportunity arises find the crucifix for the finish. Lemos has been shown to jump on submissions when available, but I think Zhang’s submission defense would prevent that.   
Prediction: Zhang wins by 3rd Round Sub
I predict Zhang will be primarily a counter punch in this fight, waiting for opportunities to catch kicks and then find TDs to control Lemos on the ground and find the finish. If Lemos has made significant improvement in TD defense then this fight will become more interesting, but I predict she’ll mostly be using her jab and TB to create space until she can land a strong combination for a finish.
Abbreviations:

TD: Takedown RLK: Rear Leg Kick TC: Thai Clinch TB: Teep to Body DU: Double Underhooks

Tap should add those TUF fights with dates and details now since it's all been revealed.

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Aljamain Sterling, SUB, R1
I think Sterling will keep attempting takedowns until he gets one, and I think he will just need the one to end it all. I feel like if he gets the back of O'Malley he seals the deal unless there is like 45 seconds left in the round, but with how quickly Sandhagen went to sleep maybe O'Malley will need all the time he can get. But I do think that if Sterling can't use effective wrestling that he is toast if the fight is on the feet, I can see O'Malley knocking him out by the 2nd round in that case.

Zhang vs. Lemos
Amanda Lemos, SUB, R3
I think Lemos is different than anyone Zhang has fought before, she won't be safe anywhere the fight goes. I think this might be one of those "domination" type of wins for Lemos.

Vera vs. Munhoz
Marlon Vera, DEC
both have not been finished i see it going to decision

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Da'Mon Blackshear, TKO, R1
I could see this going both ways but i lean to blacksheae

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, TKO, R3
Weidman coming off the injury, shouldnt even be fighting i see a rd2 or 3 tko

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Gregory Rodrigues, SUB, R1
gregory is a far better fighter on the ground and i see him getting a submission on the ground or a tko, but he has been tko 3 times before so i am worried about this one

Moroz vs. Silva
Karine Silva, SUB, R2
Both fighters are extremely good But silva takes the win here in my

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
will be betting on both fighters on this fight because it really is just ehh most of holobaughs losses come from decisions and most of hubbards wins come from decisions but I could very well see kurt getting a early round finish

Gibson vs. Katona
Brad Katona, DEC
really see this fight going to decision could go either way tbh but i lean katona

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Andre Petroski, TKO, R2
Gerald has been tkod 4 times in the past and subbed 8 times petroski is a finish machine with only one fight going to decision so i dont see this going to decision at all i see it ending round 2 via tko by petroski

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, SUB, R2
Again silva is coming off a 9 fight win streak while lee is on a 2 fight losing streak i think silva gets the second round sub or tko and makes it 10

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
How did Kurt Holobaugh get re-signed by the UFC?

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R3
It’s crazy that Magny has 30 fights in the UFC but has only lost by TKO/KO twice! I’m still rolling with Garry by late TKO

Vera vs. Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz, DEC
I think Munhoz is getting the upset here 🤷‍♂️he’s another guy that just doesn’t get knocked out often despite having so many fights. He rarely gets rocked

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
I’m so 50/50 on this fight, it’s literally a coin flip. I could see Hubbard winning the technical fight but Holobaugh winning the dog fight

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Andre Petroski, DEC
I’m picking Andre Petroski but I never count out GM3. He’s always got a chance to catch anyone in a submission.

Moroz vs. Silva
Karine Silva, SUB, R2
I can’t wait to see Karine Silva attempt to avenge one of her losses

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
I got Silva but Andrea Lee probably shouldn’t be a +280 underdog.

Brad Taveres by decsion at +205 is a steal, Brad only had 1 finish in 12 year and people think he wins by ko

da'mon must be holding record with shortest gap between fights now, right? 7 days. he'll lose probably, but what a G.

before it was khamzat with 10 days i suppose. which i  don't get too cuz ufc happens one time per week. or something was different in 2020?

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 2:08 AM ET *

@PiggyBank 

It was during the plandemic, so they had a Wednesday UFC card to make up for the cancelations they had.
 
So, Chimaev fought John Phillips Wednesday on the (Kattar vs Ige , Abu Dhabi card) than turned around the following Saturday and fought Rhys McKee on the (Whittaker vs Till , Abu Dhabi card) 

That's how it was 10 day turn around

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 2:13 AM ET *

makes sense. ty

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Aljamain Sterling, DEC
I do have some fears O'Malley will be able to make this closer than it should be, but on paper, Aljo should dominate.

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, SUB, R1
Lemos feels like the kind of fighter who is tailor made to lose to Zhang.

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, DEC
Magny is a tough fight for anyone, but I don't think he'll be able to handle the speed and striking of Garry.

Vera vs. Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz, DEC
Gut feeling but I think Munhoz has what it takes to beat Vera. Vera isn't unbeatable, and Munhoz is underrated at 135.

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Mario Bautista, DEC
Bautista has more UFC experience and is rightly the favorite. Blackshear has looked good in his last two outings, but I worry about his quick turnaround against someone like Bautista.

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, DEC
Neither man has looked particularly good as of late. Tavares will have the age advantage and is probably the less shopworn of the two, but it's anyone's guess tbh... Could definitely see Weidman winning, but Tavares just feels like the smart pick.

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R1
Tiuliulin has really only beat lesser competition, and has struggled to stay afloat in the UFC. I do have my worries about Rodrigues' chin, but he really should stop Denis early in this fight.

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
Holobaugh is a dog, but he's 2-3 over the last five years. He hasn't even fought (not counting TUF) in over two years. That's not a great look for a 36 year old fighter coming in against a more proven UFC level fighter in Hubbard. Holobaugh, despite all of his grit, has never won a fight under the UFC banner. Save for some craziness, Hubbard outworks Kurt to a decision win and the TUF title.

Gibson vs. Katona
Brad Katona, DEC
Despite coming into this fight with a pretty big height/reach disadvantage, I'm liking Katona to take this. Gibson will be the more dangerous guy early, but as the fight goes on, Katona will be able to rack up points. Katona is just too technical for a guy like Gibson.

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Andre Petroski, SUB, R1
Meerschaert is the kind of guy who can kill a parlay or go out and get blasted in under a minute. Really hard to rely on a guy with his level of inconsistency. While I could totally see him finding a way to drag this fight out and score a late sub, it's yet to be seen how much he has left in the tank. Petroski has speed and power on his side, and he's stepping in against a guy who's been first-round-finished in three of his last four losses. Petroski comes out and makes it nine first round submission losses for GM3.

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
Lee is a crafty fighter with a weird/fun karate-grappler style. Unfortunately for her, she's fighting a muay thai savage in Natalia Silva. Lee is a very dynamic fighter, but I don't think it translates to this level of the sport. The stuff she does can work on someone in Invicta or the LFA, but Natalia is just on another level. Lee has only been finished once in her entire career, so I'll save Silva batters her to a dominant decision win.

Moroz vs. Silva
Maryna Moroz, DEC
Really hard to pick a side in this one. Moroz has a lot of upside despite the betting lines; she's probably got the better gas tank, she's the more technical striker, has more experience going the distance, and has never been stopped as a pro. Hell, she's already got a submission win over Silva! Silva has much more success as a finisher, having won all of her fights by KO or sub... It's very possible that Silva will just come out and flash finish Moroz with a sub, but I just have a gut feeling Moroz will be able to drag this fight out.

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, DEC
Does anyone else feel bad for Weidman?

The man will forever have some hate on him for beating Anderson. Since losing the belt the man went 1-4 being stopped in all 4 losses including the title loss.
After the win against Kelvin Gastelum, he took a year off before returning only to get stopped take another year off, and get stopped again even worse by Dominick Reyes.
The Reyes loss was bad as he was attempting the old trick of changing divisions and whenever a fighter change divisions it either goes good or horrible (Side note it's weird that both Luke and Chris tried this only to be stopped).

After the loss to Reyes, he moves back down to middleweight and grinds out a heavy wrestling heavy decision win. I remember him talking about climbing the rankings again before the Hall fight. He mentioned about the injuries he had to recover from and how the amount of damage taken over the years has made it really difficult for him to wrestler in general. For the first time I found myself hoping that Chris could find some success before retiring and then and then and then
==X===

After finally getting over all the injuries and stoppages he breaks his leg with the first strike thrown and I couldn't help but feel bad as when watching these fighters throughout their careers breaking their bodies yearly it wasn't a good feeling watching a man lose it all once again.  I hope Chris finds success somehow.

With that being said I got Brad via decision
BUT  
THIS IS STILL MY BOY

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 6:47 AM ET *

I know that I'm one of the few people that think that Weidman actually stands a chance against Tavares. It's safe to say that Weidman is not the same as he was a couple of years back. However, he still can rely on his wrestling. Take a look at his fight against Akhmedov. He won that fight by just grinding it out using his clinch work and wrestling. Tavares got good takedown defence, but Chris is relentless when it comes to taking his opponents down. So I can definitely see a similar scenario play out this fight against Tavares.

Tavares has low striking output and doesn't really possess the punching or kicking power to finish fights. The last fight he won by finish was against Jotko, which was back in 2018. Before that in 2011 against Boroni. He fought 22 UFC fights with only two finishes. Yet I see a lot of people thinking he can finish Chris somehow. I really don't believe Weidman's leg will be much of an issue either. He had a grappling match just last March and looked decent (even though he lost). 

Anyways, I personally think this goes the full three rounds with Weidman just keeping Tavares against the fence or pinned on the ground and win this fight on control time.

* Edited at 08.17.2023, 11:53 AM ET *