UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

How do you know Mokaev is 100% healthy?

And howdo you know he would not risk a 4 fight win streak?

He risked his whole career by not tapping to the knee bar. Stupidity.

* Edited at 10.18.2023, 2:26 AM ET *

@Rah123 

after this injury, he was already running sprints uphill overtaking all his training partners
I think that knee bar looked worse than it actually was, was painful, but far from the reality of a serious injury

Hello friend 👋 👋 👋 

Live bet on Mokaev also good idea
Last 2 fight was +100 in Live

Makhachev vs. Volkanovski II
Islam Makhachev
could go either way. leaning islam but could see volk steal a close decision.

Usman vs. Chimaev
Khamzat Chimaev
closer than people think but gonna ride with chimaev at 185.

Aliskerov vs. Alves
Ikram Aliskerov
ikram by whatever he wants.

Wood vs. Naimov
Nathaniel Wood
Nathaniel wood scares me because he somehow always manages to get hurt early in the fight but man he has heart. gotta ride with the favorite tho.

Mokaev doesn’t even need to have td success to win this fight. He just has to create enough scrambles so that Elliott gasses himself out & leaves an opening for the sub 

The only problem Mokaev has is Elliiot is a professional cheater. Just watch the Tagir fight - the amount of fouls is out of control...horrendous. He should have had 3 or so points taken away. He's a master of grabbling shorts opposite of a ref's view, even did it against Altamirano

Makhachev vs. Volkanovski II
Islam Makhachev, TKO, R1
Its impossible to sub Volk, thats why Islam will KO him in early rounds...

Ankalaev vs. Walker
Magomed Ankalaev, DEC
Can't lie i'm having Ankalaev decision but don't be surprised if Walker does something crazy like wins via sub in the last round

Aliskerov vs. Alves
Ikram Aliskerov, TKO, R1
Shame, was looking forward to Imavov (personally thought imavov was the side) this will be similar to the Hawes debut

Nurmagomedov vs. Gafurov
Said Nurmagomedov, DEC
The one fight that if I parlay all the fights, I will be doing two with both these two covered.

Elliott vs. Mokaev
Muhammad Mokaev, SUB, R2
Bring it home the boy!

Basharat vs. Henry
Javid Basharat, DEC
30-27 UD

Dumas vs. Azaitar
Sedriques Dumas, DEC
Dumas looking better recently, not hugely confident but Azaitar...

Wood vs. Naimov
Nathaniel Wood, DEC
Wood can get cracked but he eats them very well

Yu Frey vs. Dudakova
Victoria Dudakova, TKO, R2
Just the one women's fight, we are truly blessed this week

Silva vs. Magomedov
Sharabutdin Magomedov, TKO, R1
Everything will be fine and then like that Silva out cold

Dumas vs. Azaitar
Abu Azaitar, DEC
Split Decision

Yahya vs. Peek
Mohammad Yahya, DEC
Peek has literally no technique and I doubt he found some in four months. He has a 1st round ko chance but that is it.

Jubli vs. Breeden
Anshul Jubli, TKO, R1
Breeden have the greatest chin

Wood vs. Naimov
Muhammad Naimov, TKO, R1
Wood is very technical and I like his style but Naimov is a killer. He is much bigger too.

Yu Frey vs. Dudakova
Victoria Dudakova, TKO, R1
Jinh is way past her prime

Silva vs. Magomedov
Sharabutdin Magomedov, TKO, R1
His profile pic alone is enough to take him

 NoSmokeSport on X: "😬 Kamaru Usman & Justin Gaethje wrestle at the open workout… around the 0:18 mark, Justin asks if Kamaru is alright, and Usman seemingly responds “No, something popped” before awkwardly getting up😬 #UFC294 #UFC https://t.co/IBJg436kn9" / X (twitter.com)   about to see a usman decline im feeling .

everyone get ready.

Silva vs. Magomedov
Sharabutdin Magomedov
bruno just looks like a run of the mill mw ufc old guy, shara has hype, drive, skill. unless something stupid happens shara bullet takes this

Shara Magomedov -265 vs.Bruno Silva +215: Sharabutdin Magomedov is a powerful striker who can throw in nice kicks and body strikes. 90 percent of his wins are by TKO and he has serious power. However, he has no UFC experience yet. Also he is one eyed.Furthermore, Bruno Silva is 1-3 in his last four fights. However, he faced good to decent UFC level competitors in those matchs. Thus, there may be a recency bias against Silva resulting in Silva being undervalued. Bruno Silva is black belt in bjj training out of Evolucao Thai MMA. Silva is also a power house with 87 percent of his wins by TKO. He also has plenty of experience with 7 UFC fights under his belt. Now for the odds analysis: Magomedov’s implied probability is 72.6 percent, Silvas is 31.75 percent. We believe Magomedov is overvalued here because the line should probably be much closer to a coin flip. In our opinion including Magomedov in a parlay would be a very risky wager especially at the current odds. Pick is Silva from a value perspective. Even if you think Sharabutdin wins 50 percent of the time there is a 18.25 edge on Silva. This fight is certain to be a exciting start to the card! Jinh Yu Frey +380 vs. Viktoria Dudakova -500: we predicted Dudakova to be a favorite at -350. The line is currently -500 i.e 83.33 percent. Although the pick will stay Dudakova we can not bet on her as she is to much of a favorite at this time. Nathaniel Wood -340 vs.Muhammadjon Naimov +270:Nathaniel Wood is an English fighter who took to training BJJ at the the age of 16. He is currently training with Great Britain Top Team. Wood has a higher SLPM, higher accuracy than Naimov. Wood is also more experienced with a (7-2 UFC) record.He puts out a good volume in his striking. However, hes a bit reckless and has a tendency to put himself in some dangerous situations. We were impresed by the Tajikistani Naimov’s grappling and clinch work in tape study. Hes training with Elevation fight team a great gym. He has ko kick power and recovers fast when he gets hit. He defeated mullarkey in his first UFC fight and is looking to pull of an upset here against Wood. Based on tape study before seeing any odds we had Wood at -130. At -340 the implied prob is 77.27 percent, and Naimov is 27.03 percent. Thus, from a math perspective the pick is defintely Naimov with a 16.48 percent edge.
For further analysis check out substack in bio! Thanks!

I saw that too. Hope he's fine. 

@tianofcreation 

 The “math” isn’t adding up bubba

Yeah that was sketch supposedly Justi asked if he hit his head which was way over during the takedown.

@tianofcreation 

You also said last week the parlay killers were Ashley Yoder and Alekseeva who both lost.


Keep the substack lil bro.

No guys let him keep doing it. If we fade his picks it’s free money