UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@rah agree about krylov. I was very confident in him to beat Spann, but having to cut weight so soon after getting sick is a little concerning. Then again krylov said he wanted to fight so maybe it was just some bs thing. Either way it makes me a little less confident. 

That being said spanns chin isn’t gonna get much better cutting weight twice in a month lol

Volkov vs. Romanov
Alexander Volkov, TKO, R1
body kick

Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Petr Yan, DEC
Hard to be confident in yan because of his recent performances, but I really do think this is a fight he should win. Merab is not a striker on the level of Sean, and while he is an elite wrestler, he does not have the bjj of aljo. The reason yan lost against aljo was because of the bjj, not the takedowns. He would defend 90% of every attempt but once aljo got his back he was helpless. I think he can defend the majority of takedowns from merab, avoid major damage on the ground, and peice up merab

Volkov vs. Romanov
Alexander Volkov, TKO, R2
I’m really shocked the ufc made this matchup. Romanov is fighting a step up after losing his biggest test yet. Now, I could see him having success early with his wrestling but after round one romanov is gonna be dead. Volkov did get ragdolled by aspinall, but the difference there is aspinall was perfectly level changing; Romanov is more of a sumo style and likes to slam guys down. Volkov historically has very good tdd and outside of the aspinall fight it has held up very well. On the feet he is just way better than Romanov. I think his front kick to the body is gonna pay dividends against a gasser in romanov

Nurmagomedov vs. Martinez
Said Nurmagomedov, TKO, R2
I think said is incredibly overrated but he has been winning a lot recently. Martinez on the other hand is very underrated and has been improving every fight. Not only is he winning, but he seems to have nailed the weight cutting aspect (something he has struggled a lot with in the past). This could be a closer fight than the odds suggest, but I feel like said is just gonna find a way to win

Petrino vs. Turkalj
Vitor Petrino, TKO, R1
This is a very hard fight to call. I think anton does get a good amount of hate; he’s not amazing but he’s not as bad as everyone thinks. His striking is a nightmare, but his cardio and grappling are very solid. Petrino is a very fun fighter but I have a lot of doubts about him. Outside the ufc, his big holes were gas tank, striking defense, and grappling. On dwcs, he actually looked improved a decent amount. Now, the fight was still very sloppy, but he fought a good opponent (imo), and he did show improvemts in his ground game. His cardio is always a concern because he is a giant and puts everything into every shot. That being said, petrinos striking is actually very good. He has great power and good technique. I think he can get anton out of there early but if he gets repeatedly takendown it’s gonna be a long night

Ramos vs. Lingo
Ricardo Ramos, DEC
Oh look, another outmatched opponent for Ramos. Ramos is kinda like a jake matthews; been in the ufc forever, is still really young, chinny, has a well rounded skillset, and only beats outmatched opponents and loses to any top 30 opponent. Lingo is a decent fighter; solid takedown defense and solid boxing, but he has barely won his last two fight against bad comp and has been out forever. Ramos has been out for a while but I think he’s way better than lingo. I don’t like how Ramos just spams spinning elbows like an idiot and I wish he would just go to his grappling more, but he should comfortably win.

Krylov vs. Spann
Nikita Krylov, TKO, R2
As I already said, I was previously very confident in krylov, but now cutting weight twice in 2 weeks is a little concerning, especially with how much of a wild card Spann is. That being said I’m still gonna pick him

Brzeski vs. Williams
Karl Williams, DEC
Williams is just a weird fighter. He’s barely been a pro and hasn’t fought good competition, but he has shown a well rounded skillset. I’m very on the fence with brzeski. His pre ufc tape is abysmal, but in the ufc he seems to have fixed his cardio issues. All that being said, I have a very strong feeling brzeski will crumble against anyone who can wrestle. I don’t think Williams grew up a wrestler, but at least he kinda knows how to wrestle. I just really don’t trust brezeski despite the fact he got robbed last fight

Aldrich vs. Lipski
JJ Aldrich, DEC
This seems like a mismatch. Lipski has been dissapointment after dissapointment recently and now she’s getting a step up in competition after an embarrassing showing against cachoiera. Jj is a very underrated fighter. She was once bad but has really rounded out into her frame at 125. Very solid kickboxing and decent graplling (when she decides to use it). If she grapples, I think she will dominate lipski, if she stands in the feet, she will win but it will just be slightly more difficult

Bautista vs. Cannetti
Mario Bautista, SUB, R1
Why was this fight even scheduled. Bautista should be fighting for a ranking. They must want cannetti gone. I don’t see how Bautista loses; he’s better everywhere

Nam vs. Silva
Tyson Nam, TKO, R2
Glad to see nam is the favorite here because I was leaning him from the start. I do like Bruno silva but after watching back all his tape he was not as impressive as I remember. His two ufc wins are against very bad competition and despite having a close fight with tagir, I was not impressed against taha or dvorak. I’ve also noticed silva has a tendency to get countered bad, as it’s happened in a few fights. Nams entire game is just a very low volume counter striker, but his power is quite ridiculous for the division. I’m not super confident in nam, as it’s hard to back a 40 year old 125er, but he has shown consistency, and I haven’t been totally impressed with silva. This is a pick I might switch after rewatching some fights

Gravely vs. Henry
Tony Gravely, DEC
I don’t really know how to feel about Henry after his last fight. He looked amazing against barcelos but struggled very badly against a good counter striker in assuncao. He has a weird style where he just wants to get in your face and pick you apart. Gravely isn’t the best striker but I do think he is improving in that area; especially against basharat he was having good success in the first round with striking. Gravely also has very good wrestling, and I am not impressed with Henry’s tdd. I do worry about gravely getting subbed while on top, but he has shown a lot of improvements in defensive bjj recently

Harris vs. Nurmagomedov
Carlston Harris, SUB, R2
I actually think abubakar isn’t as bad as everyone says. He’s definitely not amazing, but he’s not a total fan. Solid wrestling and striking but he’s just mediocre. I really like Harris. Despite his age, I think he’s got a very good skillset and has also beaten a fight level of competition. He doesn’t have an amazing chin, but he hits hard and has very clean striking. I think the best part of his aspect is his ground game. He has great takedown defense and very good bjj. He specializes in anacondas and darce chokes. I think the striking is pretty close, but Abubakar won’t have much wrestling success, and I think Harris will find the sub.

Assunção vs. Grant
Davey Grant, TKO, R3
Assuncao is washed, but he showed in his last fight that his skills are still there, he’s just slowed down a lot. He isn’t as fast as he used to be, but he’s still got iq and good counter striking. Of course his ground game is always good. davey is older but has been in the prime of his career. He’s got a very awkward yet effective striking style. It’s hard to be fully confident in Davey because he has gassed before, and he does have a tendency to get hit cleanly. I might switch to assuncao but I feel like he’s gonna get chinned.

Dumas vs. Fremd
Sedriques Dumas, TKO, R1
I do think fremd is skilled but he’s clearly too green for the ufc. He already was chinny but has shown bad fight iq in his last fight. I’m very high in dumas. He has a lot of natural talent and has been improving every fight. Very slick kickboxing, large frame, improving ground game. I think he has fremd covered everywhere

Horrible news guys. Mezzor is banned. What are we going to do for this card?

Oh actually its ok, his alter ego Sasquatch is here

LOL picking against all of them.

And then laughing at you because Magomedov lost, and apparently he had an infection at the time 

Only 1 person dumb enough 

The problem with Romanov is threefold. 

1. His top control is not great 
2. His finishing ability on top is not great against anyone good (this now does not include Cyril Gane)
3. His cardio is weak

He also fancies his striking 

I don't think there will be a finish in that fight.

The question to me is can Romanov win 2 of 3 rounds with his wrestling. Now that's a question. 

Over 1.5 is a lock

I really don't know much about Henry pre UFC and don't know what to make of him in his UFC fights

Do you think he can defend/get up from Gravelys take downs? If he can he has the cardio to outlast him. If not he is done

Initial reaction is this card is difficult to bet on

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I actually thought Fremd was really impressive on short notice against Fluffy. I was absolutely dumbfounded at the fighter that showed up against Tresean Gore.

Even if the fighter that made Fluffy work hard for a 15 minutes decision shows up I think hes going to have huge problems with Dumas, who is still developing but has some scary athleticism. 

@rah Henry’s pre ufc tape is actually not good. He seems to have improved just as he was getting to the ufc. His atakedown defense was really bad outside the ufc. It didn’t look very good against assuncao. I think gravelys cage wrestling is very underrated. He’s improving a lot each fight 

My initial gut reaction is Romanov is outmatched by Volkov. However, I will say that Romanov seems to be adding a new wrinkle to his game each fight (including getting in much better shape). I thought he clearly lost his last fight but did well to try and adjust mid fight and made it competitive. That was the first time hes ever been really tested and I dont think it was a terrible showing. He just finally got humbled and its better to be humbled in a somewhat close decision than eventually getting flattened by someone like Tuivasa, Aspinall, etc. 

But I think Ayy might have nailed it with those Volkov body kicks. If Romanov isn't catching those kicks and trying to put Volkov on his back or just out right dodging them its going to absolutely zap his cardio.