UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Rajabov steps in to fight Ribovics

for people that tailed me on the Muniz play, I'm sorry and it's unfortunate how upside down that fight was - totally unexpected how it went on the feet and totally unexpected how it went on the ground

but at the same time, my analysis there was ******* spot on (brendan allen had huge success with the right kick to the body like I mentioned), muniz's striking wasn't as bad as people were making it out to be etc etc it just so happened that Muniz decided to favor his striking over his wrestling, his only 2 takedown attempts looked flat, Allen has improved gameplanning and fight IQ and the best BJJ player in the ufc somehow got outgrappled




in this moment of unexpectedness though, my superiority as an analyst AND bettor shows. what did I say? did I not say that you should only put Muniz on your secondary parlays (simply because it wasn't a lock)? did I not say if you don't believe in Muniz that much and want value out of this matchup you should bet on the over 0.5 (1.22 value, more than solecki, suarez and bellator frauds)? 

I told you to do all those things at the end of my breakdown because i'm an expert at betting. I'm an expert at making money. I'm an expert at preparing for the unexpected. I'm a beast. I'm a ******* animal. I'm everything put into 1. I am THAT guy.

I think Saaiman has the best value on this card at -250. I also like Araujo as a dog 

saaiman wins and over 1.5 is going to be the treasure prop of this card, probably 2.0 odds on it if not more when it comes out

 

No need to apologize, no one can be right 100% of the time, being right 90-95% of the time is as impressive enough.

Muniz looked like someone who had never grappled in his life. I'm certain he must've had a bad weight cut or something, and Olivas probably heard about it from his BJJ contacts.

It's actually loik radzhabov.

@rah as much as I want trevin to win I don’t think he will. He doesn’t throw anything

Also for anyone wondering, Loik and Esteban train at the same gym (sanford) and have the same manager (ali)

Neal vs. Rakhmonov
Geoff Neal, TKO, R2
Although in my opinion the 60 40 favorite is Shavkhat, because of the value it would go to Neal.

Is Esteban still gonna get an opponent? 

loik

Tapology Survivor Game 90 is up!

 https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/72305?page=1#post-1202786

Bro you have the best picks on here bar none. I always respect and listen to your advice. And the vast majority of the time you are right. Anyone tailing your picks has already made a lot of money. 

Firstly, you make picks. Anyone who choses to bet on a fight is doing so on their own accord. They are almost all adults here (except JR and Bracket & Mezzor who are mentally children). You are not responsible for what people chose to do with their money. You never tell them to bet. You just provide your FREE analysis on fights which is right most of the time, and a damn sight better than most analysts who charge money for their picks.

Also you can't fight for Muniz. You are not his coach
 You can't force him to shoot  double leg (his best takedown) before he gasses out striking. You are not responsible for the stupidity of a high level BJJ player (the stupidest type of fighter) wanting to play power slap on the feet witha better striker till he is gassed. 

Finally it's MMA. If you bet you know what it's about and the risks. On another day Muniz would have won. Just like InnerG would not have been robbbed. I've made money tailing your picks and will continue to do so. I'm grateful for especially your advice and Andrews advice along with the other good analysts on here.

Of course the final decision depends on Mezzors picks and locks. That's just inevitable. 

Neal vs. Rakhmonov
Shavkat Rakhmonov, SUB, R2
Rakhmonov might get caught but probably will be able to submit Neal don’t think he should strike

Gamrot vs. Turner
Mateusz Gamrot, DEC
Gamrot last minute replacement of Dan hooker turner won’t be ready

Garbrandt vs. Jones
Trevin Jones, TKO, R2
Jones has a 4 and a half reach and has the skill to be in the ufc don’t forget he koed Timur valiev

Brunson vs. Du Plessis
Derek Brunson, DEC
Du Plessis got taken down by Darren till.

Marquez vs. Barriault
Marc-André Barriault, DEC
Fireworks.

Machado Garry vs. Song
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R3
Garry should be able to this one done but song can’t be counted out he’s a good counter striker

Martinez vs. Saaiman
Cameron Saaiman, TKO, R2
Saaiman seems to be active and he’s only 22 if he passes tests like these he’s got a bright future.

Basharat vs. Blackshear
Da'Mon Blackshear, DEC
Blackshear being heavily under rated here

Radzhabov vs. Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics, TKO, R3
Loik has never been finished and his only losses to big names like raush manfio, natan schulte, Alex Martinez and Rashid Magomedov great test for Ribovics if he can get the finish

Guys what do you all think about DuPlessis vs Bums?

I need your opinions. I can't believe that I am leaning Bums. Just not been impressed with DDP at all. Espinosa seing how D1 Till was having success on the ground with him.

Thoughts? I am considering a shot on the Dog BumSon. But worried because he truly is a Bum, son.

Don't waste your money on Brunson. Look at his last 3 wins. 
Till- an out of shape welterweight who is always injured & can't wrestle
Holland- a welterweight with bad fight IQ who can't wrestle
Shabazyan- 0 cardio & can't wrestle

I'm sure Brunson will has his moments but as soon as he gets a takedown defended its like he fights as if he's in water. Also has terrible durability.

If you're feeling something in your gut to bet on Brunson then go for it but there's other dogs on this card with better value 

I don’t like ddp but this is an easy matchup for him imo. Brunson is sloppy with no gas tank or chin. Also can’t trust anyone who says they’re retiring and then decide not to