Penn vs. Fitch Prediction Commentary

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Penn vs. Fitch. Let's see what you've got.

not going to argue if you score it that way. but it just shows the limitations of the scoring system.  penn was the beaten fighter, exhausted and getting pummeled.

his strategy was interesting and cool, and it was incredibly impressive to take jon fitch's back like that... twice.    but i can't look at the overall story of the fight as anything but fitch decisively taking control and being the superior fighter at the 15 minute mark.

BJ surprised me with his ability to compete with Fitch's size. I think a draw was warranted. 

I thought the third round was easily a 10 - 8 round for Jon Fitch which is where I'm sure the draw came from.  I mean Fitch had BJ on his back within seconds and then relentlessly beat on his face until the bell.  BJ did nothing but squirm.  I need to see the fight again, but I think I had Jon Fitch winning the first or second round as well.  Regardless I think Jon Fitch won that fight.  I mean BJ was beaten up and looked like a sad kid while Jon Fitch was happy and celebrating after the fight.  BJ had some impressive submission attempts, but how does Jon Fitch not get big points for not only surviving them, but reversing the position?  How many guys are able to get out of BJ's body triangle and into a dominant position?  I thought Jon Fitch deserved the victory in this fight.

Personally I don't see 3rd as a 10-8... He controlled the round from the top, but I don't feel he was about to finish him... Rd 1 Bj and Rd 2 Bj... but judges must have given JF round 3 10-8... 

I think Penn won the first two rounds.

As for the third Fitch did not do enough damage to cause a 10-8. Sure he controlled BJ.. but that is about it.

i also didn't see the 3rd as a 10-8. he gained top position and then peppered him with little inside shots and elbows. he never attempted to pass and he never threatened to finish. bj was aware of where he was the entire time.

by comparison, that round was almost identical to the first round of the forrest griffin - rich franklin fight a few weeks ago, and nobody thought that was a 10-8.

i personally have no problem with a ref standing a fight up under those circumstances after 3 or 4 minutes, if the top guy is making no attempt to improve his position or finish the fight.

The 3rd round was pretty much a textbook 10-8 IMO. Complete control and outstruck him about 110 to 2. Doesn't get clearer than that. The first round was 10-9 Penn which just leaves a close 2nd round as the difference between 29-27 Fitch or a 28-28 draw.

Fitch outstruck BJ 149 to 2 in the 3rd round according to Fight Metric.  If that's not a 10 - 8 round what exactly is?  I think a lot of people just don't like Fitch while a lot of people love BJ.  I think if BJ outstruck Fitch 149 - 2 while standing, regardless of whether or not BJ was throwing power shots or just jabs, people would be calling for a freaking 10 - 7 round.  Also BJ's face was very bruised up after the fight, it's not like Fitch was raining down little pillow punches or soft elbows.

Apparent quote from Dana "Fitch is saying give me my respect.  He just fought a 155-pound guy to a draw and lost the first two rounds IMO."

The hate for Fitch just comes from all angles..  imagine if this fight was 5 rounds?

Lynx.. did you watch the fight?

All Fitch did was lay and pray in the round, it was not that dominating by any stretch of the imagination. By your comparison, then Frankie and Maynard round one should have been a 10-7.

No offense, but you are completely wrong here. He did not do any substantial damage nor did he even seem to hurt BJ Penn

Personally I scored the third a 10-8 for Fitch.

@TacomaTerror: Your example of the Edgar/Maynard Round 1 being a 10-7 by comparison is unfounded IMO. I've been arguing with people about this since the fight. At the end of the first round between Edgar and Maynard, Edgar was actually doing pretty well. He was moving around and actually stung Maynard with a few shots in the final minute of action. It was clearly a 10-8 round.

By comparison, BJ literally managed zero offense in the third round, and I find the sentiment that Fitch was doing little damage to be unfounded as well. In the second round, I agree that Fitch did almost nothing from the top, but comparing the third round to the first round of Griffin/Franklin is completely ridiculous. As @LynxGuy said, BJ looked like a mess after the fight, and all of that damage was suffered in the third round. Additionally, Fitch got BJ to the ground in the third by stunning him with a hard right hand and shooting right in for the takedown.

I don't think the argument should be about whether or not the third was a 10-8, but rather why more judges aren't willing to give out 10-10s or 10-8s in other fights to create that ever elusive aspect of consistency in MMA judging.

@Tacoma - I don't think you have a clear understand of what people call lay n pray.  Fitch knew he was possibly down two rounds which is why he was so aggressive in the third round.  He wasn't holding onto Penn hoping to get the decision because he did enough in the first two rounds to secure a win.  He was going at Penn hard because he knew he could have lost those first two rounds.  He at least secured himself the draw by giving it everything he had in that third round, landing 149 shots to BJ's 2 and taking the round 10-8 on two judge's scorecards.  That's not what lay n pray is.

What's the deal with me getting a lose because a fight ending in a draw? I mean, a draw wasn't an option, so why am I being deduced and given a loss for something I was never offered?!

I simply feel that in the third round Fitch was never close to finnishing the fight, and that you cannot have a 10-8 round without putting the other guy in immidiate danger and rocking him a couple of times. And Maynard was landing much more powerful blows on Edgar then Fitch was.. really Edgar was in danger of the fight ending and BJ was not.

@Guttural

The likelyhood of a draw is tiny in comparison to wins and losses. They did not give you the option because it would RARELY be used.

I don't think we are going to make an option for picking draw, but we will probably change it so that it won't count as a loss.

Round 1 I thought was Penn's pretty easy...2nd round was really close with Penn scoring a TD and taking Fitch's back so I could see the judges giving it to Penn...3rd round was easily 10-8 Fitch...so I saw a draw, but the majority of times I think a fight is a draw someone usually gets the win

Honestly I though BJ won the second as well by getting his back twice and the sub attempt.

But I thought it could have gone either way, and I think a Draw is the correct call.

I'm a bit excited to see them fight again!