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Detailed Breakdown and Analysis of UFC on FX (maincard)
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01.19.2012 | 8:45 PM ET
Pat Barry vs Christian Morecraft
Barry brings to the table excellent striking (as far as ufc heavyweight standards) and them nasty kicks (in case you didn't know, he won his first four fights with just kicks). Unfortunately, he is incredibly lacking in the ground game, evident in his 3 submission losses out of his 4 total losses. He has fallen on tough times lately (losing 2 straight), and really needs to bring it tomorrow night in impressive fashion.
Morecraft is more of a wrestler, and has a decent size advantage over barry. He has a far better ground game than barry, and sufficient wrestling to be able to muscle barry to the ground. The 2 things that stick out with morecraft are his 2 ko losses (albeit against good competition) and his stretch marks. Stretch marks aside, morecraft is 1-2 in the ufc and suffered 2 devastating KO losses. Arguably, mitrione knocked him out twice. Morecraft is still game though, and was beating struve in the 1st round of their fight, and he managed to get mitrione to the ground before getting a questionable standup call (if i recall). Between those two losses was a fairly good performance against mccorkle, who gasses out terrible and was choked out with ease.
Prediction: Morecraft will definitely need to get Barry down quick, and work his top control and size advantage against barry. Barry wont be facing a huge reach disadvantage as his last fight, but needs to keep his range and pick morecraft apart. Barry is hard to pick though, given his often "***" performances (cc, hague), and morecraft definitely has the tools and mindset to win (he at least admits that he has to take it to the ground asap). However, in the end, i think this will be close to mitriones striking clinic on morecraft, and barry will end up with the 1st or 2nd round t(KO) (but dont be surprised by a morecraft upset).
Barry brings to the table excellent striking (as far as ufc heavyweight standards) and them nasty kicks (in case you didn't know, he won his first four fights with just kicks). Unfortunately, he is incredibly lacking in the ground game, evident in his 3 submission losses out of his 4 total losses. He has fallen on tough times lately (losing 2 straight), and really needs to bring it tomorrow night in impressive fashion.
Morecraft is more of a wrestler, and has a decent size advantage over barry. He has a far better ground game than barry, and sufficient wrestling to be able to muscle barry to the ground. The 2 things that stick out with morecraft are his 2 ko losses (albeit against good competition) and his stretch marks. Stretch marks aside, morecraft is 1-2 in the ufc and suffered 2 devastating KO losses. Arguably, mitrione knocked him out twice. Morecraft is still game though, and was beating struve in the 1st round of their fight, and he managed to get mitrione to the ground before getting a questionable standup call (if i recall). Between those two losses was a fairly good performance against mccorkle, who gasses out terrible and was choked out with ease.
Prediction: Morecraft will definitely need to get Barry down quick, and work his top control and size advantage against barry. Barry wont be facing a huge reach disadvantage as his last fight, but needs to keep his range and pick morecraft apart. Barry is hard to pick though, given his often "***" performances (cc, hague), and morecraft definitely has the tools and mindset to win (he at least admits that he has to take it to the ground asap). However, in the end, i think this will be close to mitriones striking clinic on morecraft, and barry will end up with the 1st or 2nd round t(KO) (but dont be surprised by a morecraft upset).
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01.19.2012 | 8:45 PM ET
Jared Papazian vs Mike Easton
Easton is a very energetic and explosive bantamweight, and looked promising even after a 2 year hiatus in his ufc debut. He holds notable wins over beebe (though it was ********), tuf josh ferguson, and the tuf winner, john dodson. Easton has good power, favors leg kicks, and has good jits (and a very nice guillotine). He also trains with bantamweight champ, dominick cruz, which is always a plus.
Jared Papazian wanted to debut in the flyweight division, but he'll have to do with a fight against easton instead. Coming in at late notice, he's looking to make good use of a big opportunity (especially since this fight is on the main card). He is a very active fighter, has good cardio (gone the distance 2 times for 5 rounds in his last 2 fights), and likes to push the pace. He's very young as well (23) and has notable wins over marvin garcia and abel cullum.
Prediction: Papazian will looks to make a big splash in the ufc; he's talked a big game in the past and thinks that he can beat the best the ufc has to offer. For now, he will have a big challenge ahead of him, in easton. Easton will looks to attack the legs early and often, and expect papazian to push forward. Easton's offense may be stalled, but he will eventually snag papazian in the 3rd round with a submission win or get the decision victory to bring him to 2-0 in the ufc.
Easton is a very energetic and explosive bantamweight, and looked promising even after a 2 year hiatus in his ufc debut. He holds notable wins over beebe (though it was ********), tuf josh ferguson, and the tuf winner, john dodson. Easton has good power, favors leg kicks, and has good jits (and a very nice guillotine). He also trains with bantamweight champ, dominick cruz, which is always a plus.
Jared Papazian wanted to debut in the flyweight division, but he'll have to do with a fight against easton instead. Coming in at late notice, he's looking to make good use of a big opportunity (especially since this fight is on the main card). He is a very active fighter, has good cardio (gone the distance 2 times for 5 rounds in his last 2 fights), and likes to push the pace. He's very young as well (23) and has notable wins over marvin garcia and abel cullum.
Prediction: Papazian will looks to make a big splash in the ufc; he's talked a big game in the past and thinks that he can beat the best the ufc has to offer. For now, he will have a big challenge ahead of him, in easton. Easton will looks to attack the legs early and often, and expect papazian to push forward. Easton's offense may be stalled, but he will eventually snag papazian in the 3rd round with a submission win or get the decision victory to bring him to 2-0 in the ufc.
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01.19.2012 | 8:45 PM ET
Josh Neer vs Duane Ludwig
What you have here is an excellent veteran vs veteran fight, which should be a good one. On one side, we have Josh Neer, who recently made it back in the ufc to a successful re-debut against the polish connection. In that performance, we saw neer get down to the nitty gritty and slice keith up badly. It was a very fun fight, and i expect to see the same tomorrow night. Neer has an above average submission game, but suffers when up against better wrestlers and grapplers. Neer shows up to fight though, and brings it almost every time.
Ludwig is a long time veteran, and is 33 now, but he is experiencing a small resurgence in his career, riding a 2 fight win streak against two tuf fighters. He has good kickboxing, and will most likely use that against josh, who will probably be lured into a slugfest at some point. Ludwig has had a fairly inconsistent career thus far, losing some, then winning some, then going back to losing some more. I missed both of ludwig's past two fights, so I am not really at freedom to comment on those, but from what i know he impressed against sadollah and came back against nick. In a previous interview, he has stated that he wants to put on a show for the fans now, with his title aspirations beyond his reach now. I expect him to do no less, and give us fight fans a fight to remember.
Prediction: Most people are favoring ludwig in this bout, but I'm thinking Neer will take it. They will stand early to the audience's delight, and neer will probably get outstruck for the better part of 2 rounds. However, I think neer will turn it around and outgrapple, outclinch, and outhustle ludwig to a close decision victory, or a late sub.
What you have here is an excellent veteran vs veteran fight, which should be a good one. On one side, we have Josh Neer, who recently made it back in the ufc to a successful re-debut against the polish connection. In that performance, we saw neer get down to the nitty gritty and slice keith up badly. It was a very fun fight, and i expect to see the same tomorrow night. Neer has an above average submission game, but suffers when up against better wrestlers and grapplers. Neer shows up to fight though, and brings it almost every time.
Ludwig is a long time veteran, and is 33 now, but he is experiencing a small resurgence in his career, riding a 2 fight win streak against two tuf fighters. He has good kickboxing, and will most likely use that against josh, who will probably be lured into a slugfest at some point. Ludwig has had a fairly inconsistent career thus far, losing some, then winning some, then going back to losing some more. I missed both of ludwig's past two fights, so I am not really at freedom to comment on those, but from what i know he impressed against sadollah and came back against nick. In a previous interview, he has stated that he wants to put on a show for the fans now, with his title aspirations beyond his reach now. I expect him to do no less, and give us fight fans a fight to remember.
Prediction: Most people are favoring ludwig in this bout, but I'm thinking Neer will take it. They will stand early to the audience's delight, and neer will probably get outstruck for the better part of 2 rounds. However, I think neer will turn it around and outgrapple, outclinch, and outhustle ludwig to a close decision victory, or a late sub.
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01.19.2012 | 8:45 PM ET
Melvin Guillard vs Jim Miller
Guillard is powerful, dynamic, and incredibly explosive. Since his embarassing loss to lauzon, he has since switched camps to join rashad and the blackzilians. Who knows if this will be good or bad for him (it was terrible for johnson for sure). Guillard looked excellent against roller, dunham, and lowe, racking up brutal stoppages against all 3. He has great td defense and lightning fast speed. both roller and dunham had no chance to get off any offense before being completely demolished. However, guillard's weakness seems to stem from his own overconfidence. In his last lost, during the walkout, guillard acted like he had already won. He was dragged back to heart by a lauzon jab and was quickly finished. Guillard's ground game will be put to the test against jim miller.
Miller is a tough, tough bastard. His only losses are to 3 unarguably top 5 lightweights (and all were by decision). He has decent striking, an excellent ground game, and is fairly well rounded. He has a solid chin, which will aid him dearly in this fight. In his last fight, he suffered a disappointing defeat, in which he tried for submission after submission only to get pounded by bendo. Before that loss, he had a nice 7 fight win streak in the ufc. In his two fights before his last loss, he tkoed a very tough shalorus, and submitted a very wily but green oliveira. However, both of those opponents are not nearly as dangerous as guillard.
Prediction: Guillard's power is an equalizer for almost any fight at lightweight. His glaring weakness is miller's strength though. I think miller has a good enough chin to take guillard's shots. Guillard will come out more cautious imo, after his last loss. He will stuff several of millers takedowns early, but i think miller will find a way to bring it to the ground, whether up against the fence or by pulling gaurd. He is weary of guillards striking, and is smart enough to know that he needs this fight on the ground. Guillard may wobble miller early, but miller will get off some shots as well. He must watch out for any counters though, and especially those nasty body kicks of guillard. Miller is a far safer bet than guillard, so i think he takes this by decision.
Agree? Disagree? Thoughts?
Guillard is powerful, dynamic, and incredibly explosive. Since his embarassing loss to lauzon, he has since switched camps to join rashad and the blackzilians. Who knows if this will be good or bad for him (it was terrible for johnson for sure). Guillard looked excellent against roller, dunham, and lowe, racking up brutal stoppages against all 3. He has great td defense and lightning fast speed. both roller and dunham had no chance to get off any offense before being completely demolished. However, guillard's weakness seems to stem from his own overconfidence. In his last lost, during the walkout, guillard acted like he had already won. He was dragged back to heart by a lauzon jab and was quickly finished. Guillard's ground game will be put to the test against jim miller.
Miller is a tough, tough bastard. His only losses are to 3 unarguably top 5 lightweights (and all were by decision). He has decent striking, an excellent ground game, and is fairly well rounded. He has a solid chin, which will aid him dearly in this fight. In his last fight, he suffered a disappointing defeat, in which he tried for submission after submission only to get pounded by bendo. Before that loss, he had a nice 7 fight win streak in the ufc. In his two fights before his last loss, he tkoed a very tough shalorus, and submitted a very wily but green oliveira. However, both of those opponents are not nearly as dangerous as guillard.
Prediction: Guillard's power is an equalizer for almost any fight at lightweight. His glaring weakness is miller's strength though. I think miller has a good enough chin to take guillard's shots. Guillard will come out more cautious imo, after his last loss. He will stuff several of millers takedowns early, but i think miller will find a way to bring it to the ground, whether up against the fence or by pulling gaurd. He is weary of guillards striking, and is smart enough to know that he needs this fight on the ground. Guillard may wobble miller early, but miller will get off some shots as well. He must watch out for any counters though, and especially those nasty body kicks of guillard. Miller is a far safer bet than guillard, so i think he takes this by decision.
Agree? Disagree? Thoughts?
* Edited at 01.19.2012, 8:47 PM ET *
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01.19.2012 | 9:35 PM ET
PRELIMS:
Nick Denis vs Joseph Sandoval
Sandoval has great td defense and solid striking (dont let his loss to watson fool you). Denis packs some power and his last finish was amazing (though he was losing the fight up to that point). Hes got more experience, more power, and this will be a fun striking match.
Prediction: Denis will take this by t(KO).
Daniel Pineda vs Pat Schilling
Pineda is the definition of finisher, having finished all of his 15 opponents in his wins. Pat is undefeated and young, but his lack of experience and lack of good opponents will ultimately lead to his demise.
Prediction: Pat will put up a good fight, but i think pineda gets the submission win.
Fabricio Camoes vs Tom Hayden
Newcomer Hayden meets against camoes, who is making his 2nd run in the ufc. Camoes looked good in his last two fights against steve lopez and efrain (though efrain had him hurt bad in the 3rdround) and will look to carry his momentum into this fight. He mainly loses to better, stronger grapplers. Hayden's a jorge gurgel pupil, and is undefeated at 8-0. His last win was against harry johnson. Like pineda before him, he suffers from a lack of experience against bigger names.
Prediction: Camoes pulls this one out with the submission victory.
Sandoval has great td defense and solid striking (dont let his loss to watson fool you). Denis packs some power and his last finish was amazing (though he was losing the fight up to that point). Hes got more experience, more power, and this will be a fun striking match.
Prediction: Denis will take this by t(KO).
Daniel Pineda vs Pat Schilling
Pineda is the definition of finisher, having finished all of his 15 opponents in his wins. Pat is undefeated and young, but his lack of experience and lack of good opponents will ultimately lead to his demise.
Prediction: Pat will put up a good fight, but i think pineda gets the submission win.
Fabricio Camoes vs Tom Hayden
Newcomer Hayden meets against camoes, who is making his 2nd run in the ufc. Camoes looked good in his last two fights against steve lopez and efrain (though efrain had him hurt bad in the 3rdround) and will look to carry his momentum into this fight. He mainly loses to better, stronger grapplers. Hayden's a jorge gurgel pupil, and is undefeated at 8-0. His last win was against harry johnson. Like pineda before him, he suffers from a lack of experience against bigger names.
Prediction: Camoes pulls this one out with the submission victory.
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01.19.2012 | 9:36 PM ET
Charlie Brenneman vs Daniel Roberts
I'm gonna be honest. Roberts has looked terrible in his last two fights. Brenneman had a decent upset against story, but was almost killed by johnson (in an iffy stoppage). Brennemans a grinder, with roberts being the submissino specialist. For a guy who trains with cesar gracie , youd expect him to have better standup (but then again there is jake shields.) Roberts cardio is also quite awful, and brenneman is known to go to the distance often.
Prediction: Brenneman cruises to a decision.
Kamal Shalorus vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
This is one of the fights im most looking forward to. Khabib has been an extremely promising prospect. I really want him to pull this one out, but he has a tough opponent in shalorus. Shalorus is an excellent wrestler with a granite chin and good power. His striking technique is a bit sloppy though, but training with hardonk now should help him. He is also slightly prone to gassing late in a fight. Khabib is a sambo specialist, and holds an impressive record of 16-0 (even if most of his opponents arent big names). He has good striking, and a good double leg, which i think will serve him well here. He also had decent submissions off his back. Hard fight to pick for me.
Prediction: Want to say khabib, but shalorus' wrestling will be too much. He'll take it by decision.
Jorge Rivera vs Eric Shafer
This is the 2nd toughest fight for me to pick. Shafer looked terrible in his last fight against Simpson. He was literally a human punching bag. I missed jorge's last fight, but in his bisping fight he was holding his own up to the illegal knee. Jorge has good power, and shafer has good jits and a good chin.This will probably be jorge's last fight as well, so i think he'll have that extra motivation to close out his career with a bang.
Prediction: Jorge by decision.
I'm gonna be honest. Roberts has looked terrible in his last two fights. Brenneman had a decent upset against story, but was almost killed by johnson (in an iffy stoppage). Brennemans a grinder, with roberts being the submissino specialist. For a guy who trains with cesar gracie , youd expect him to have better standup (but then again there is jake shields.) Roberts cardio is also quite awful, and brenneman is known to go to the distance often.
Prediction: Brenneman cruises to a decision.
Kamal Shalorus vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
This is one of the fights im most looking forward to. Khabib has been an extremely promising prospect. I really want him to pull this one out, but he has a tough opponent in shalorus. Shalorus is an excellent wrestler with a granite chin and good power. His striking technique is a bit sloppy though, but training with hardonk now should help him. He is also slightly prone to gassing late in a fight. Khabib is a sambo specialist, and holds an impressive record of 16-0 (even if most of his opponents arent big names). He has good striking, and a good double leg, which i think will serve him well here. He also had decent submissions off his back. Hard fight to pick for me.
Prediction: Want to say khabib, but shalorus' wrestling will be too much. He'll take it by decision.
Jorge Rivera vs Eric Shafer
This is the 2nd toughest fight for me to pick. Shafer looked terrible in his last fight against Simpson. He was literally a human punching bag. I missed jorge's last fight, but in his bisping fight he was holding his own up to the illegal knee. Jorge has good power, and shafer has good jits and a good chin.This will probably be jorge's last fight as well, so i think he'll have that extra motivation to close out his career with a bang.
Prediction: Jorge by decision.
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01.19.2012 | 9:40 PM ET
I've read enough books this week.
"Albert Fish... I mean that guy was a real jerk!"
01.19.2012 | 9:42 PM ET
Agree with most of these. Your Neer pick is probably the most unpopular here on Tap, but I've also got him by dec. Ludwig has a large majority here.
* Edited at 01.19.2012, 9:51 PM ET *
01.19.2012 | 9:49 PM ET
I like your picks a lot actually, but I think Guillard is going to be able to fend off Miller's takedowns and finnish the fight first round.
The Ludwig vs Neer fight is really interesting in my mind and I've no idea whom will walk away with then win. Good predictions and Analysis!
The Ludwig vs Neer fight is really interesting in my mind and I've no idea whom will walk away with then win. Good predictions and Analysis!
01.19.2012 | 9:51 PM ET
@niklust.
sorry ahaah i tried to keep them short
@derp
yeah i think neer is some easy money.
@husabye
thanks for your input. Personally, i was on the fence with guillard/miller (might even change my picks again tonight) but miller just seems like the safer bet.
sorry ahaah i tried to keep them short
@derp
yeah i think neer is some easy money.
@husabye
thanks for your input. Personally, i was on the fence with guillard/miller (might even change my picks again tonight) but miller just seems like the safer bet.
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01.19.2012 | 10:11 PM ET
Quality posts. I agree with most of them. I think I just have an affinity for prospects, I went with Khabib and Schilling, but I don't expect their fights to be easy and wouldn't be shocked the other way around. I also like Shafer over Rivera by sub, the level of their groundgames is just so drastically different, and Shafer has a helluva chin.
"God please give me patience, if you give me strength I will just punch them in the face."
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- wolfmanhowl
01.20.2012 | 11:25 PM ET
your predictions were good. i went 9 for 10 in the last two ufc events. the josh neer fight i made 200 dollars. fighters like diaz and neer are always solid b/c the only way they lose is by doctor stoppage or decisions. they can take hits and certainly dish them out.
01.21.2012 | 1:24 AM ET
I was just playing around, I never mean to offend anyone or personally insult them.
Your predictions were really close though, wow!
Your predictions were really close though, wow!
* Edited at 01.21.2012, 1:27 AM ET *
"Albert Fish... I mean that guy was a real jerk!"
01.21.2012 | 4:47 PM ET
@wolfmanhowl
Nice man. I had khabib winning too originally by 3rd round submission but i changed it the day before. I thought shalorus had a granite chin and better wrestling but i was wrong. That would have been a nice perfect pick for me, but ill live. And i like neer too, hes a gritty guy.
@ lust
it got a chuckle out of me.
Nice man. I had khabib winning too originally by 3rd round submission but i changed it the day before. I thought shalorus had a granite chin and better wrestling but i was wrong. That would have been a nice perfect pick for me, but ill live. And i like neer too, hes a gritty guy.
@ lust
it got a chuckle out of me.
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