Contender Series 2023: Week 1

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Almeida vs. Fernando
Lucas Fernando, TKO
Why was the UFC even interested in singing a guy who A, barely does MMA, B, is 35 years old, and C, has only fought cans, and probably STILL fight cans even after this fight is over? It really does not compute with me.

Greatest thing about DWCS is the fighters/ training partners coming in telling us how a certain guy is gonna dominate.

Like the 1 guy who trained with Jailton Almeida or when Darius Flowers was on here or Clayton Carpenter's dad. 

* Edited at 07.22.2023, 9:09 AM ET *

@beefer cuz of his kickboxing career. He went 13 rounds with poatan. However, as we saw last year with Anvar boynazarov, just because you were a good kickboxer doesn’t mean your success will translate to mma. They’re trying to give him a favorable matchup with another striker, but Fernando has the advantage everywhere

Anvar also has no business fighting @ 145 especially in the UFC

Excellent breakdown mate

Thanks mate, later I will do some Vitor Dias tape to do the breakdown of the new fight

* Edited at 07.26.2023, 1:26 PM ET *

Borjas vs. Dias
Victor Dias, SUB, R1
When I found about the short notice replacement I was really expecting to side with Dias, but now I am not as sure as I was originally. Dias has elite BJJ and if the fight hits the ground it will 100% be over. The thing is I am worried about him going down to flyweight, specially on short notice. Last time that happened he looked a lot slower and with mid cardio compared to his last fight as bantamweight. It wouldn´t surprised me at all if Borjas cracked that chin at some point as if something Borjas has it is power. Regardless, I am still picking Dias as he is levels above Borjas on the ground but this will be closer than a lot of people expect

Dammit I thought contender series was this Tuesday! 

Alemida vs Fernando  
Fernando KO RD 1

This is really weird and bad matchmaking. I like both but this is a mismatch. Almeida is gonna be the anvar boynazarov of this season. When he was kickboxing, almeida was a top 3 middlweight in the world; hes gone 13 rounds with poatan, won belts in WGP and SUPERKOMBAT, and had wars with some truely elite kickboxers. Now thats really cool to see of course, but then you realize hes past his prime already, is 35, hasnt fought mma in 2 years (Only been dedicated since this year), and when he has fought, its been exclusively against bums and he finishes them in minutes. To top it off, I cant find any mma footage of his (not that it makes much of a difference). He has been scheduled twice to fight this year but the first opponent pulled out and then cesar got signed. That was dumb af byt the ufc because we have no idea what he looks like in mma, sure he was an elite kickboxer even up until this year, but kickboxing to mma is very different and requires a lot of time to get good at. While the ufc is giving cesar another striker, i doubt he gets it done; fernando is a beast. To start, this dude is a physical freak; standing at 6”3 with a freaking 82 inch reach! Thats just insane to begin with, but the dude has insane output and never seems to slow down. He beat the breaks off of jansey silva in a high paced fight & never showed any signs of slowing once. His striking is just vicious, he doesnt waste any movements and everything he throws is a laser beam; just straight and powerful. Because hes so long, everything he throws is very hard to react to and hes also pretty fast considering how big he is. The power he has is crazy too; every time he lands flush he is rocking his opponent. One thing I dont like about fernando is that while he has good tdd, he gets pushed up against the fence way too easily and isnt that strong in the clinch, which is surprising considering his size; makes me think a good wrestler will give him issues, although thats irrelevant in this matchup. Even tho he is a striker, i wonder if he will shoot a takedown just because i doubt cesar has any grappling whatsoever. Even if caesar comes out hot and starts tagging fernando, i think either 1. His cardio wont be able to sustain a pace, especially if he cracks fernando early or 2. The size of fernando mixed with the size of the gloves will give him a lot of issues defensively and he will get cracked while firing back. Either way, I just think this is a mismatch; fernando is active in mma and looking very good while doing it whereas cesar is a former kickboxer going into mma because of poatans success. Would be cool to see him win tho i just really doubt he can beat someone with so little mma training. 




Grad vs Nolan 
 Nolan KO RD 2

This is gonna be the best fight of the night. Both these guys come to scrap and both have quite the highlight reel. I really like both these guys quite a bit. Starting with bogdan, man is he exciting. Coming from a kickboxing background, grad brings it from start to finish. What i really like about his striking is that he has a ton of speed and hits insanely hard. Part of that is natural power and the other part is the technique; grad throws everything straight and piercing and is just a sniper. He loves his kicks to the body and legs, will also mix in head kicks and has a spinning hook kick he loves. Every time he lands clean on his opponent he is drawing out big reactions. While he mostly kicks at range, bogdan has a sharp jab and sharp crosses. One thing I dont like about bogdan is his size. Bogdan should be at 145 (and went down there his last fight so idk why hes not competing there on ufc; he would be quite good as a 145er) but instead he chooses to stay at 155. He is 5’7 which is as small as it gets for 155. He is a huge, muscular guy so the size is fine but the height is not. We’ve seen him struggle a good bit when fighting taller guys, and his opponent is as big as it gets for 155 so this should be interesting. Grad rolls with punches well but doesnt have the best defense out there. He wears the punches well but ive seen him get clipped hard before. An interesting wrinkle to his game is his grappling. Grad actually seems to know what hes doing on the ground. His wrestling is shockingly good. He is explosive, has solid entries, cuts corners, and is heavy on top. However, im not sure how good it actually is since hes fighting in europe; most guys cant wrestle well and ive also seen him taken taken down pretty easily at times. That leads me to believe he has solid wrestling technique, but his strength helps a lot. He also has good bjj off of his back and his athleticism helps him a ton with scrambling. Tom Nolan is really green but a very exciting fighter. He is another one of those insanely big 6”3 LW and every fight he has is a slugfest. Nolan goes wild a lot but his technique is actually pretty good and he has nonstop cardio so he is very tought to deal with, especially for grad since he wont give him space and grad is at a huge size disadvantage. Nolan likes to pressure you down tothe cage with strikes and then bully you in the clinch with his knees and elbows. Nolan’s wrestling isnt very good but his tdd is decent because hes long and he does have a decent sprawl. When he does get taken down he is always being tricky and tries to get back up. If he does end up on top, his gnp is ferocious. I lean nolan because he is way bigger and the pace he pushes is insane, however i think grad is pretty solid and wouldnt be surprised if he wins this fight. Also, nolan is still really green where grad looks solid.



Szaflarski vs Machado  
Machado KO RD 2

Man what a weird fight we have here. Both guys have certain qualities that make them different from most heavyweights, but neither are very good at all. For how he looks on paper, szaflarski is extremely underwhelming. Sure, he has a lot of experience & a massive frame for the weight class, but he doesnt really do anything that makes him standout. He is a big dude but is sooooo slow. He has very limited movement and just plods forward throwing low volume. I dont like his striking at all; not only is it slow, but he doesnt even seem to have power nor does he seem comfortable on the feet. He throws a jab or maybe a hook and never throws combos. He also fights at a very sluggish pace, and I have a feeling will crack under pressure. He appears to be a grappler, but watching the tape it doesnt look good either. His wrestling is quite bad & the only way ive seen him end up on top is because his opponent fails on a takedown. Normally, his “grappling” involves hanging onto you in the clinch up against the fence, using his size to try and hold you there. When he does get on top, his bjj seems at least decent, but hes also fighting guys who have very minimal grappling, if any at all. Finally, his cardio sucks too, having about 2 good rounds before starting to slow way down. Now, for Caio, wow he might be just as bad. His competition is just as bad if not worse than Szaflarski’s. His resume consists of two wins over 55 year old lee mein, 45 year old edilson lopes, and 36 year old chris larsen. Caio is so sloppy; I will say, he at least tries to fight instead of the boring, slow paced style of szaflarski but man his striking is rough. He keeps his hands super low & tries to avoid most punches with head movement. As a result of this, he gets clipped constantly. Machado also has very poor boxing. He doesnt really know what to do and just kind of throws whatever he feels like. He throws very few punches and mostly just throws weak kicks out in the open. He does throw knees in the clinch which is good since szaflarski does nothing in the clinch, but Caio has also been outmuscled by much smaller, really bad guys before so that does concern me. I think Caio will probably win moments just by being more active and having a power advantage, but hes there to be hit. Caio has some grappling but its very low level. This is a coinflip to me; both guys are bottom of the barrel trash. On one hand, caio is much faster, has a better skillset, and actually tries to fight but the question is, can he survive getting outmuscled by the much bigger guy? I really worry about the size disparity between the two, but I think caio will win by being much more aggressive and having a big speed advantage. If caio doesnt finish him early, this fight is going to get very ugly because neither have good cardio. Not confident in this pick at all


Talbott vs Cortez  
Talbott KO RD 3 

This one should be pretty good. Cortez is an interesting choice to bring back to dwcs; hes mostly getting the opportunity because of his sister but I will say, he has improved since his first appearance on dwcs. He had a tough out in Ceerod, but cortez just didnt look good in general throughout that fight. He was really timid, made some bad fight iq mistakes, and was pretty much just a punching bag for ceerod. In his time since then, he has improved but im not sure if hes ufc ready yet. Dont get me wrong, hi striking is pretty clean. He is a counter striker first and a boxer second. He throws mostly leg kicks and jabs at distance, then uses feints and movement to draw out attacks from his opponents so that he can counter. His counter striking is really clean; he times his shots well and cracks pretty hard. However, he has no killer instinct whatsoever. When he counters, he only throws one shot at a time and doesn't follow up afterwards. Its really annoying to watch because he will hurt people and just not do anything about it. Cortez has some wrestling but its pretty basic. Overall, I think cortez is a solid fighter but not ufc caliber yet; he is a little too limited and really needs to up his volume. Also, his striking defense is still really bad, which is a red flag in this matchup. Another thing i didnt like was taking james settle to decision. That dude is jobber level and cortez couldnt finish him. Talbott on the other hand, is someone who has a very high ceiling imo. Talbott reminds me a lot of sugar sean; not just because they have the same frames and fight in the same weight class, but talbott has a very dynamic striking atyle and fights with that swagger we see in sean. He has super dynamic striking and really good cardio. He uses a lot of big energy movements including very slick head movement, yet he doesnt slow down. His takedown defense is also very good. He has a nice sprawl but also good defense all around. Part of this is because hes tall for the division but he also knows how to wrestle. When he does get taken down, he immediately tries to get back up & doesnt accept bottom position. Now, I doubt cortez will try to wrestle but if he does, he will have little success. One knock i have on talbott is he does occasionally get caught on the feet. His chin is pretty crazy, but you want to avoid having to rely on it. Cortez has good techqniue and can crack, but he doesnt deal well with pressure & i think the constant in-your-face style of talbott, combined with his size and dynamic striking will be too much for him. I really like what I see from talbott & i think he could go far


Borjas vs Dias 
 Dias Sub RD 1

Borjas was brought in to lose against josh van but has now gone through two other opponents now. I really dont understand why the ufc signed this guy other than to have van totally destroy him. Theres nothing notable about him, he is unknown, the tape is limited & the little I can find is very bad. He is a striker with some good power but thats about it. Nothing really special in his striking and he has horrible defense. From what ive seen he cant wrestle at all, and that is the nail in the coffin going up against a bjj black belt. Victor is a pretty underrated fighter. Hes not the most well known and has been grinding on the regional scene for a minute, picking up 2 defeneses of the titan fc flyweight belt. I also think dias should be on an 8 fight winstreak; in his fight vs severino, he controlled the grappling for 9 minutes of the fight, then slowed down and lost the last round. I think Dias is better than borjas everywhere. Dias’s striking used to be a work in progress but it has looked much improved in the last few fights of his. He actually uses feints and footwork now along with some kicks. I feel his striking could still improve more, but as long as he moves his head I think he can deal with borjas easily. I wouldnt even be surprised if he knocks down borjas and gets a club & sub. Dias’s easiest path to victory is the grappling. Dias doesnt wrestle in the open, instead choosing to back the opponent up against the cage and either getting them down with trips or using the cage to take their back. His grappling is really strong. He will triangle the legs and stop the opponents from gaining position. He doesnt do a ton of damage, but he keeps a consistent output of gnp and has really good submissions. My only worry about dias is the short notice. Of course, Dias has been staying ready for a ufc opportunity, but he is a massive flyweight and doesnt have the greatest gas tank there is. I have seen him start to slow, not death gas, but slow down a decent amount sp that could be concerning. Besides that, I think this will be super easy for dias, borjas isnt close to ufc level

* Edited at 07.30.2023, 5:00 PM ET *

Almeida vs. Fernando
Lucas Fernando, TKO, R1
Another MMA event, another Brazilian MMA war

Nolan vs. Grad
Tom Nolan, DEC
Has there been an Austrian based fighter in UFC?... Australia vs Austria.... Vote Aussie!

Machado vs. Szaflarski
Kevin Szaflarski, TKO, R2
Brazilian vs Poland giant war.... Epic

Talbott vs. Cortez
Payton Talbott, TKO, R3
I have liked the look of Talbott, all k.o wins... Lets keep it going... Though Cortez is at Fight Ready

Borjas vs. Dias
Victor Dias, SUB, R2
Dias seems to have good grappling

* Edited at 08.02.2023, 6:54 PM ET *

I’m not gonna lie, after looking through all the contender series cards for this year the talent level for the most part has gone down immensely.

Almeida vs. Fernando
Lucas Fernando, TKO, R2
I know that Almeida isn't far in his mma career and is a kickboxer but his last opponent should be classified as a bum or a stepping stone bc 5-28-1 is 💩.

Almeida vs. Fernando
Lucas Fernando, TKO, R2
vou de Lucas Fernando, por nocaute. Ele está se apresentando como um prospecto. Vem de 4 vitórias consecutivas atuando pelo LFA, vencendo atletas duros. Acredito que ele vence seus adversário na área deste, na trocação.

Borjas vs. Dias
Victor Dias, SUB, R1
O Victor tem um jogo muito ajustado na luta agarrada. Não sei como é o jogo de defesa de quedas do Borjas, mas acredito que será complicado para o peruano conseguir manter a luta em pé.

Based on what? I found his tape to be insanely low level. Plus his original opponent was josh van, who they clearly wanted to win; they only signed Borjas to be a sacrificial lamb 

* Edited at 08.06.2023, 6:56 PM ET *

Heavyweight fights on contenders series are usually very low level, but damn they are fun. I am expecting a goofy fight between Machado and Szaflarski

**** yeah contender series is back