Lineker vs. Kelleher

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I like it.

Brian Kelleher win by stoppage against John Lineker. Tale of the tape: John is 27 going to be 28, 5’3, with a 67 inch reach. Brian is 31, 5’6, with a 66 inch reach. Who’s the superior striker? Answer: Hard to tell whose striking will dominate over the other. Technique + Variety vs Power + Aggression Offense - rd 1 John / rd 3 Brian? Defense - Brian. Technique - Brian. KO Power - John… KO power in his hands. Variety/More weapons - Brian. Hand Speed - John IQ in striking - probably Brian. Aggression - John Chin - hard to tell… both have never been knocked out. Summary of Brian’s striking: constantly switches stance, lots of footwork & lateral movement, variety of tools in his offense, attacks the body/head/legs, will mix his strikes with takedowns but doesn’t really do a good job in setting up or timing his takedowns. Pretty difficult to get a read on what he’ll do & which part of the body he’ll focus his attack on. I think Brian is going to look to land head kicks on John as he’s susceptible to them & TJ Dillashaw found success in doing that as well. Summary of John’s striking: explosive in rd 1 & just about the first minute of every round. Orthodox stance, very heavy on lead leg. Does not check leg kicks but he does attempt to catch some body kicks. Susceptible to head kicks & flying knees because he has his chin up, hands sometimes a bit too down, elbows tucked close to his rib-cage, walks forward, & has his torso overextended whenever he throws power punches. TJ Dillashaw actually landed a clean left head kick in rd 1 breaking John’s jaw. Marlon Vera landed two good flying knees on John as he walked into them. Has some footwork but as the fight progresses he becomes more flat-footed & more desperate to get the knockout punch. He throws a few feints but he’s pretty easy to time. You can tell when he’s going to unload a flurry of power punches because he’ll slightly bend both his legs. By doing this, his punches have more torque + his punches come from hips = generate a lot of power if he lands. Pretty one-dimensional in his striking as he mostly use his hands to box throwing mostly power punches. Does not set up his jab. Uses forward pressure to trap his opponents along the cage as they move backwards. He head-hunts too much. Throws a few kicks… mostly head kicks. Does a flying knee in almost all his fights but for the most part never lands clean because he does not set up his strikes. Willing to absorb a few shots to land one of his own. Likes to use his one-two combination throwing a left hook to the body & then following up with a right hook to the head. Throws a lot of hooks, not enough straight punches or jabs. The reason why he throws more hooks than straight punches is because he has his hands low near waist level. It’s harder to generate power & speed from the hip if he throws straight punches. John’s striking can be nullified by opponents who can threaten him with takedowns, out-grapple him on the ground, & drain his cardio. If John fears being taken down he becomes less aggressive in moving forward. Perfect example is when he fought TJ Dillashaw. TJ wrestled him to the ground for all 3 rounds. The few moments where he was able to strike with TJ he was hesitant in moving forward & it was TJ who was the one advancing forward while John was backing up. Who’s the superior grappler? Answer: slight edge for Brian Kelleher because of the wrestling. MMA wrestling - slight edge for Brian. Brian is more likely to mix his strikes with takedown attempts. I believe he’ll use the tj dillashaw & ali bagautinov blueprint to beat John. Heavy wrestling & drain his cardio. So can Brian take John down & keep him down? Answer: probably not in the first round. John has pretty good takedown defense. Maybe in the 2nd or 3rd round as his endurance fades + he becomes more flat-footed & sloppy as he walks forward which makes it easier to level change on him. Even if Brian can’t successfully land the takedowns, by clinching with him it’ll drain his energy & explosiveness. The longer the fight goes + heavy grappling involved = the better it is for Brian Kelleher. MMA Jiu-jitsu - neither. Both men have either loss by decision or by submission. John loss 8x in his pro career, 3x by submission & 5x by decision. Brian also has loss 8x in his pro career, 5x by submission & 3x by decision. John doesn’t usually go for submissions unless he hurts his opponents on the feet with his punches and they dive for a desperate takedown allowing him to get a submission choke. John has only 4 wins by submission while Brian has 8. Who has a better chin? Answer: Hard to tell, neither man has ever been KO’ed. Brian has been knocked down by punches before, but survived. Don’t recall John Lineker ever been knocked down by strikes to the head. They both either lose by submission or by decision. John is known for absorbing a ton of shots from his opponents in order to land one of his own. However, in his December 2016 fight against TJ Dillashaw he got his jaw broken from a left high kick. However, when he came back in 2017 and beat Marlon Vera his jaw seemed pretty good… he absorbed all the shots with no problem. In that fight with Marlon, John did a better job at pacing himself & threw more leg kicks & spinning back kicks. New wrinkle in his fight-game. Who has better endurance? Answer: Brian Kelleher. John has gone 5 rounds before in 2016 against John Dodson. The fight was nothing but striking, no grappling or much clinching. In 2017, John only fought 1x (due to broken jaw from TJ) & in his return he did a good job at pacing himself. Wasn’t as explosive in rd 1. Since this fight is 3 rounds, cardio shouldn’t be an issue unless there is heavy grappling involved & the fight makes it to the 3rd round… which I think it will so I’m going with Brian Kelleher for endurance. How I see the fight going down: 3 possibilities: a.) john comes out swinging & explosive like the way he use to (before the dillashaw fight). John KO’s Brian with a flurry of punches under 2.5 rounds. Brian wasn’t able to take him down or clinch him long enough to drain his cardio or make him hesitant in walking forward. I don’t think John will come out explosive as he has changed up his game plan since he got his jaw broken by dillashaw. He wasn’t as explosive, especially in rd 1, when he returned & fought marlon vera. I could be completely wrong & John wants to impress the brazilian audience by engaging in a brawl the moment the fight begins. b.) This fight goes the distance with John winning on the judges scorecard even though the fight is a pretty close one. John wins on the judges scorecard because of his aggression, constantly advancing forward, & landing the more damaging shots. It’s a war. c.) Brian Kelleher picks John Lineker apart in the striking & ends up getting the tko or submission stoppage. Why? He’s the superior striker in terms of technique, has more weapons, better footwork, better endurance, & is the more active fighter. Also, Brian can threaten him with takedown attempts. I’m pretty sure Brian will look to drain his cardio by wrestling him in the early rounds. I think John’s loss to TJ has made him less aggressive in his striking & somewhat now less confident in taking shots to his chin. He knows he can’t keep taking shots to the head as he’s getting older & needs to fight a bit more safe/cautious. I’m going with c.) Brian Kelleher wins by stoppage. Upset? Maybe.

Kelleher looked super impressive against what looked like a revitalized Renan Barao in his last one, He stuck to a solid game plan, wore Barao down in the clinch, and then opened up on him and gave Barao PTSD flashbacks of his fights with TJ. Kelleher is tough, has good cardio and looks to be starting to mix things up very well. Stylistically, this is the kind of fight he can win, but if he gets caught on the button once I think Lineker will put him away by strikes or dive on a guillotine choke.

Big step up for kelleher, lineker is a problem for most anyone.