Nogueira vs. Schaub Predictions

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Nogueira vs. Schaub. Let's see what you've got.

Just remember that jiu jitsu skills aren't lost through aging. Nog might not be at his prime physically but tactically he can still pull off a victory from anywhere. I think Schaub will knock him out, but it's an interesting fight

I'd really like to see Nog win, but Schaub is on the rise, and he's really tough to beat.

I dont agree with u often, but this was bloody perfect. This summs up my complete thoughts on much of Pride fighters transition in ufc.


"This is what I can't stand, you think because guys like CC fedor and NOG lose, they're all of a sudden "washed up" That's not what a real fan says about his fave fighter. Those loses to Frank mir and Velasquez is because they're good fighters, not because NOG is passed his prime, we'd all like to believe that our favorite fighter lost because he no longer has it in him, but its simply not true."

* Edited at 07.13.2011, 6:05 PM ET *

I think Schaub will win by KO in this fight, he has actually looked really good in his last couple fights, even tho he fought washed up fighters.  Maybe after this fight we will get to see him get smashed by a top competitor, Im hoping for Kongo

I'm picking Big Nog by submission more out of hope than that I think it's going to happen. I just want to see Big Nog win one more.

If this fight goes to the ground even once I think Big Nog wins.. but im banking on that not to happen!

@delRose, I just logged in to respond to your incredibly ignorant post. 

Nogueira isn't past his prime? How on earth can you honestly believe that. How can a fighter still be in his prime after 12 years of fighting? All those knee surgeries? All those wars? And you think he's the same fighter?

The guy who took Bob Sapp's powerbombs, Fedor's GnP, and CC's LHK without ever getting finished is all of a sudden getting knocked out twice (once by Frank Mir), is just good as he ever was. That's insane if you honestly think that's the truth. 

I can tell you haven't seen his fights in Pride, or you just don't remember them at all, because his boxing was sharp as hell. Now, he gets lit up by Frank Mir, and is too slow to even fight back? But you say that's the same guy that fought in Pride. 

You are insinuating that the competition in Pride wasn't good. I think you've been listening to Chael Sonnen too much. Frank Mir is not on the level of the guys Nog fought in Pride. Around the same time Mir was the top UFC heavyweight, Liddell came over to Pride and got destroyed. The point I'm trying to make here is that Chuck losing to Rampage in pride (who lost to Wanderlei and Shogun) proves that the competition in Pride wasn't only good, it was better. If Mir would have come over to Pride when Minotauro, Fedor and CC were there, he would have gotten killed, by all of them. 

I haven't even mentioned the obvious physical differences. Nogueira (along with Cro Cop and Fedor) have lost all of their speed. Nogueira has no chin and no explosiveness in his takedowns. His boxing technique has also gone out the window as he passed his physical prime. I can't believe you don't see these differences. 

Age isn't the factor. It's years fighting. Nogueira has been fighting for 12 years, and fighters begin going over the hill in the 9th year (that is a legitimate study, look it up if you think I'm talking out of my ass).

I've made a lot of points, and my argument is kind of all over the place, so if you need me to elaborate on anything, I will. But it's absurd to think the Nogueira fighting today is just as good as he was in pride, and he's just received a step up in competition. Some of Pride's top guys have gone on to have very successful post-pride careers, such as Shogun, Dan Henderson, and Rampage. Some are just getting out wrestled like Rogerio Nogueira. But some are clearly shells of their former selves (Nogueira, CC, and Fedor).

I agree Mino, Big Nog is definitely not the same fighter. That said, I don't think he's completely broken, and think he can survive to a decision here. Schaub is just not that good.

Mir wouldnt of been killed. But mino are you just lurking all the time now???

@danno, I agree with everything you just said 100%. I think he has a chance, especially if these surgeries get him even close to what he used to be (like he says they will). I may pick Nog because Schuab is not too good. 
@thiago, I was off the forum for a week or so after the 132 discussion thread when I realized no one on here has the same opinions as I do, which is ok, but I'm not going to just let someone say something I strongly disagree without at least stating my opinion to the contrary. This leads to fights where I'm the only person on my side of the argument, which stresses me out, and I decided it wasn't worth the hassle. But Tapology has a lot of stuff I love, I can't stand some of the posters or the things they post (like this delRose guy) but some of you guys are awesome. Even the regulars that I am constantly butting heads with (like Heroak and Kalibo) are still cool and I like debating with them. So I've been lurking more, and posting much less. 

And my point about Frank Mir is that he would have lost to Cro Cop, Fedor and Big Nog. I don't think he's bad, I think he's a very good fighter, but those three guys are legends, and terrible match ups for him. He could have beat a few of the guys (like Heath Herring) but I don't think he would have stood much of a fight against those three. (I mean no disrespect to him, but those three are legends)

Oh, and it wasn't me that voted you down by the way, I actually gave you that up vote. 

Ah you should just ignore what people say and voice your opinion I miss you on the forums man!.. I disagree I think frank would win but im probably bias because I love Mir (dont like fedor but like Big nog and Cro cop)... And yeh I didnt think it was you!

Haha, thanks, and I'll start posting more, I just need to avoid threads about Pride guys. 

I'm not a big Fedor fan, but his run in Pride was incredible. I don't think any fighter, ever, would have beat him. Maybe Nog if their were no time limits and fedor gassed after two hours, because Nogueira would never quit, haha. That's why he was awesome, he never lost, he just ran out of time, lol. 

I think Cro Cop would win based on the match up. His striking was unbelievable. He was a force in K-1, and his striking transitioned well. His sprawl was also one of the best in the world. I think that fight would have taken place on the feet where everyone (outside of prime Fedor) stood no chance. And I mean anyone, at anytime. I'd take Prime Cro Cop over even my boy JDS.

Then I believe Nogueira would be a terrible match up for him. Nogueira had great hands and his ground game was (and still is) unbelievable. Mir is strong on the ground, but he is no Nogueira. (Plus I think he was still a brown belt at that point).

Yup you better start posting more just calm your anger down :P .. Yeah but I think the Mir of now would beat them his striking is really great now as he showed against CC and Big Nog and his BJJ is obviously epic... I would pick Mir to beat most though .. And yes Nog has ******* heart for sure!!!

@minotauro's longer response above in response to del rose is 100% accurate. Big Nog is obviously not what he once was... shouldn't really even be debated.

as for @minotauro saying that a lot of people on here don't agree with him, i don't know about that.  you've clearly got a beef with how wrestlers and maintaining top control is winning too many points on the scorecards and partially ruining the sport.  i think a lot of people would agree with you on that, including me.  but sometimes immediately after fights you consider bad decisions you are so fired up!  might seem like everyone/everything is against you in those moments, when really we all just need to take a breather.

* Edited at 07.24.2011, 5:00 PM ET *

I don't agree with the nobody ever, would have beaten Fedor in his so called prime. The guy does now, exactly what he did then, the competitiion is just so much better now and saying that it isn't, would contradict that it is an evolving sport. I'm not against you either minautaro11, it's just honestly, what I think.

@greg glad you agree with my huge post, I didn't really think it was debatable, that's why I wrote so much about it, I really didn't see how that was possible. 

And I think you're absolutely right about me getting too heated. I'm just going to cool it and roll with it. 

Thread is getting off-topic, but the Fedor of today is not the Fedor of 6 years ago against Cro Cop. The Fedor of today is slower, older, not as fit, not as motivated, and is fighting in a cage with unified rules that are not to his style's advantage.

To this point he's still the greatest heavyweight of all time. However he's the greatest based upon what he did in his own era. He beat all the other fighters of his era, and did so for a length of time and manner that no other heavyweight has done.

There are fighters today that I would pick to beat the 2005 version of Fedor. But those fighters of today only exist because Fedor and others helped pave the way for them.  Just because they are better all-around fighters doesn't put them higher in the greatest-of-all-time list.  None of them have done in their own era what Fedor did in his.

Im curious as to how people are saying Schaub isn't that good? He's an awesome PROSPECT who is about to put another legend out to pasture...Prospect means he still has some work to do, but is on his way he'll be there with JDS/Cain eventually

* Edited at 07.24.2011, 5:30 PM ET *

Not to get the thread more off-topic, but who would you pick today over Fedor? I'm just curious because I've been thinking about that too and I think he would handle Velasquez and JDS (although I'd root for JDS). I think I like Cain better than Fedor, but I'd have to pick him in a fight. 

And sorry for getting the thread so off topic, that was all my fault. Back on topic, my prediction will be Nog by sub, despite my rant about him being past his prime. I hope these surgeries that he got specifically to get him back to his old form will work, and if they do this is an easy fight to predict. That's a huge if though, but I'm banking on it.