Overeem vs. Werdum II Predictions

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Overeem vs. Werdum II. Let's see what you've got.

@Soccer - I think Bigfoot is just a horrible matchup for Fedor cause of his size, Werdum isn't nearly as muscular. But really, I don't think Fedor is very good anymore at HW, the Carwins and Lesnar's would just smother him.

@Danno I agree...size is so big in fights at that level.

Best HW striker moves 1-step closer to the UFC

Did anyone here ever think the day would come when more people would rather see the Reem in the UFC than Fedor?

I think that day is upon us.

@Geez So true...I really don't care if we ever see Fedor in the UFC or not now, but Reem should be there

Finally a legit opponent for Overeem. I dont see Werdum getting this to the ground; gonna be a short night for Fabrico. Reem Ko1

Werdum might get lucky and sub him, but I don't think he'll win this fight withought Overeem getting sloppy and giving Werdum the chance to capitalize on a mistake.

@ geez. your 100% correct in your assessment.

1. Mental Edge/Confidence/Overall Gameplan - Fabricio Werdum already owns a victory over Overeem. That can sometimes plague a fighter coming into a fight, but on other occasions, it has gone the other way. Since the first meeting, Overeem has put on weight, gained in size, strength, conditioning, and has improved his all around game. Werdum on the other hand is still pretty much the same fight that he was then. There is no doubt what each fighter's respective gameplan is coming into this fight, and either fighter can execute their gameplan at will. Overeem proved this against Rogers, and Werdum proved this against Fedor. In this category, I don't think that either fighter really has a clear cut advantage. Overeem 9/10, Werdum 9/10

2. Experience/Level of Opposition - Alistair Overeem has had more fights, but both fighters have faced the very best HW all over the world. Overeem has a slight advantage in this department, only because he's had more fights, and has been fighting longer. Overeem 10/10, Werdum 8/10

3. Heart/Determination to win - Both fighters have been finished, but that's just proof that any opponent that they face really has to put both fighters away in order to get a win over either of them. This has been proven in Werdum's decision losses to Arlovski, Big Nog, and Kharitonov. Werdum has only lost 3 times by decision the other 8 were either by KO or submission, but in every fight Overeem stayed in there, and fought his heart out. I have to give a very slight advantage to Werdum in this category. Mainly becuause of his recent victories over Fedor and Bigfoot. Overeem 7/10, Werdum 8/10

4. Stamina/Cardio - Both fighters can go 3 or 5 rounds with no problems. In the early days, it seemed that Overeem would gas, but in recent times, he has shown that he has massively improved his conditioning. I've got this area dead even for both fighters. Overeem 9/10, Werdum 9/10

5. Endurance/Toughness - Both fighters have been finished in the past, but in this fight it comes down to who can take a better punch, and in recent times Overeem has proven that he can take a punch better than Werdum. Werdum has heart, but he does have a tendency to get knocked down or rocked when he gets hit. Let's face it, Werdum is no Big Nog. A few years ago, I would've had this even, but now I have to give a clear cut advantage to Overeem in this department. Overeem 8/10, Werdum 6/10

6. Overall Striking - Werdum has been training with Mirko Cro-Cop, but his overall stand-up has not improved that much. Overeem definitely has a very clear cut advantage here. Overeem 10/10, Werdum 6/10

7. Wrestling/Overall Grappling - When it comes to wrestling, takedowns, and overall takedown defense both fighters are relatively even here because of Overeem's strength and size vs. Werdum's technique, but when it comes to sweeps, transitions, and adapted grappling for MMA, Werdum has a very clear cut advantage. Overeem 7/10, Werdum 9/10

8. BJJ/Submissions - There is no doubt that this is where Werdum's bread and butter lies. Werdum's BJJ and submissions are to the HW division, what Demian Maia's is to the MW division, but Overeem's submission defense has improved greatly over the past few years. Overeem 7/10, Werdum 10/10

9. Strength/Size - I think's it pretty easy to see who has the advantage here. Overeem 10/10, Werdum 8/10

10. Speed/Athleticism - Werdum might be a hair faster, but Overeem has just a touch more athleticism. Quite possibly even in this department. Overeem 8/10, Werdum 8/10

Overall Score and Breakdown Overeem 85/100, Werdum 81/100 - On paper, Overeem is the much improved and slightly higher rated fighter coming into the fight, but Werdum's submissions are just as dangerous, and can come out of anywhere just like Overeem's deadly strikes. With a formula like this coming into the fight, it's quite possible that any ending can come from anywhere at anytime. Typical top ranked MMA fight.

Some factors that I have thought of, is that both fighters have won and lost against top competition, but against top tier fighters Overeem has 9 losses with 8 of those 9 losses coming by way of submission or KO/TKO. Werdum in his 4 losses has only been finished once, and that was at the hands of the UFC's #2 HW, Junior Dos Santos.

The last time Werdum fought Overeem, Overeem wasn't not as big, strong, or athletic as he is today.

Overeem's overall fight game has improved, while Werdum's has seemed to relatively stay the same.

I see this fight going down, where Overeem takes a page out of JDS' book and puts a beating on Werdum in the stand-up, while staying patient, and careful to not make any mistakes or get caught on the ground or in Werdum's guard.

Overeem finally gets over the hump, and beats a top tier fighter. Overeem takes this fight via KO/TKO in round 2.

I really want to pick Werdum in this fight, but also really want Overeem vs Cain/JDS too!

I see the Overeem hype train continuing to roll, setting up a 2012 date with the winner of JDS/Cain

reems gonna take this one with a ko round 2

I'm really hoping Werdum pulls this off, but I'm calling it as I see it happening.

Im going with overeem

i see a pattern here.

Changed my pick in this one...I'm starting to feel Overeem is the most overrated man in MMA...His last big win came in 2006 against a current MW in Vitor Belfort, but that was between losses to legit HW Big Nog and some guy named Fabricio Werdum...Since then Overeem's biggest win was against Paul Buentello?

Overeem is the 2nd most overrated fighter. You forgot about that guy who purposely cuts more weight then he has to so he can dominate the weak mw division. But yeah Overeem gets a lot of unjust hype. We'll see what he can do pretty soon.

@p4pgoat, I try to keep an open mind and keep everybody's opinion valid, but seriously? You can't actually believe that Silva is the most overrated fighter. No way. If that is so,...no way.

@michigandolphin if he's as great as people say he is then why doesn't he fight in a weight class that is his natural weight? H walks around at 230. Beating Evans, Jones, Rua and Rampage would be a lot harder then beating Belfort, Sonnen, Maia and Leites don't you think? If that's not valid enough for you then no disrespect but you need to watch a lot more mma.

The only problem with his natural weight logic is if he can make MW and not have diminishing side effects to the weight cut then MW is his natural weight class...I could care less if GSP ever fights in a different weight class or Anderson Silva...Sure there are fights for either one you'd like to see at a different weight, but its not necessary to me for their greatness.