UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@DevinM34 

Yes, I do. Might still pick Matsumoto though. 

Allen vs. Curtis II
Brendan Allen, SUB, R3
This is a good fight. Allen should find a way to win here. Curtis didn't really impress me vs Barriault.

Hernandez vs. Jackson
Alexander Hernandez, DEC
I think Hernandez has more left in the tank than Jackson. Good fight but I'm not super hyped for it

Charriere vs. Mariscal
Morgan Charriere, DEC
Don't like this as a featured bout but Charriere is cool

Bahamondes vs. Giagos
Ignacio Bahamondes, DEC
Hopefully Ignacio gets back in the win column here

Brzeski vs. Walker
Valter Walker, TKO, R2
Walker is a superfreak. Excited for this one

Peek vs. Campbell
Trevor Peek, DEC
I actually rate Peek pretty well. Should be a fun foght

McGee vs. Morono
Alex Morono, TKO, R2
This fight will hopefully be fun because the loser should probably be cut. Makes the fighters more sharp and aggressive.

Budka vs. Almeida
César Almeida, TKO, R2
I rate Almeida highly as a talent but I don't know how far he goes.

No that was Jonathan Reynolds 

Allen vs. Curtis II
Brendan Allen, SUB, R3
ALLEN IS A BEAST, CHRIS IS A WARRIOR. CHRIS TAUGHT ALLEN A VALUABLE LESSON THE LAST TIME THEY FOUGHT. DON'T TAKE ANYONE LIGHTLY. I FEEL ALLEN THOUGHT HE WAS GONNA JUST TUNE UP AND CHOKE OUT CHRIS LIKE HE'S DONE TO EVERYONE ELSE. HE DIDN'T USE HIS SKILLS IN THE FIRST FIGHT AND HE SEEMED ANNOYED THAT THE FIGHT MADE IT TO THE SECOND ROUND, NOT TO MENTION THAT CHRIS IS BEST FRIENDS WITH THE GUY WHO EMBARASSED IN A FIGHT A FEW YEARS PRIOR. CHRIS IS ALWAYS LIVE FOR THE KO BUT I THINK EVERYONE HAS KINDA FIGURED OUT HIS GAME. RESPECT THE POWER. STAY IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOUR JAB, OUTSIDE WITH YOUR KICKS OR ALL THE WAY OUTSIDE WITH YOUR FOOTWORK. HIS STYLE IS KINDA PREDICATED ON YOU ATTACKING HIM...ALWAYS. YOU CAN'T GET KNOCKED OUT IF YOU DON'T TRY TO RUN IN SWANGIN. HE'S HARD TO TAKEDOWN BUT ALLEN HAS SHOWN A LEVEL OF SKILL DEVELOPEMENT THAT NEEDS TO BE RECOGNIZED. I THINK HE'S TAKING CHRIS DOWN, I THINK HE'S BEATING CHRIS UP, AND I THINK HE'S CHOKING CHRIS OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW ALLEN FEELS ABOUT THAT LAST FIGHT THIS COULD GET UGLY FRFR.

Hernandez vs. Jackson
Alexander Hernandez, TKO, R1
THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD OLE SCRAP WITH SOME ACTION FIGHTERS. HERNANDEZ HAS BEEN HERE SINCE 2018 PRETTY ACTIVE. HE BEAT MERCIER AND I'LL ALWAYS BE GRATEFUL FOR HIM MAKING IT EASIER FOR THE UFC TO CUT HIM. DAMON JACKSON IS A SAVAGE KNOWN FOR ACTION FIGHTS. THE WAY I SEE IT SOMEBODY IS GETTING FINISHED AND IT SHOULD EITHER BE HERNANDEZ WITH THE KO IN THE 1ST OR DAMON WITH THE SUB IN THE 2ND.

Charriere vs. Mariscal
Morgan Charriere, DEC
CHEPE IS A DAWG BUT MORGAN IS A BETTER FIGHTER. MORGAN SUFFERS FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF GAMEPLANNING AND RELYING ON HIS STRENGTH, TALENT AND SKILL TO OVERCOME. HE'S FRENCH BUT HE'S NOT THE TYPICAL FRENCH DON'T DO ISH IN THE OCTAGON TYPE OF FIGHTERS, HE DOES ISH. HE'S A FINISHER SO THE FINISH IS ON THE TABLE. I DON'T SEE CHEPE BEATING HIM IN ANY AREA.

Bahamondes vs. Giagos
Ignacio Bahamondes, DEC
CHRISTOS CAN BEAT THIS GUY, THEY ARE BOTH BOTTOM OF THE BARREL BUT GIAGOS IS BETTER AND MORE WELL ROUNDED. I JUST THINK HE'S OLDER AND HE HAS NOT THE BEST GAS TANK BUT HE DOES HAVE A PATHWAY TO A VICTORY SINCE THIS KID DOESN'T HAVE A REAL GROUND GAME OUTSIDE OF THE FACT THAT HE'S TALL AND RANGEY. CHRISTOS HAD HIS LAST TALL AND RANGEY FIGHTER STUNNED FOR A MOMENT HIS LAST TIME OUT AND I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A CLUB AND SUB. IGNACIO ISN'T GOOD THOUGH, BETTER SKILLED FIGHTERS WILL BEAT HIM BUT CHRISTOS DOESN'T ALWAYS SEEM TO HAVE AN ACTUAL PROCESS OR A GAME PLANS WHEN HE FIGHTS.

Brzeski vs. Walker
Valter Walker, DEC
I REALLY REALLY REALLY HOPE LUKASZ IS BACK ON THE SAUCE NOW THAT USADA IS GONE AND HE COMES IN HERE AND BEATS THE BRAKES OFF ONE OF IF NOT THE MOST BORING FIGHTERS I'VE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFE. WALKER IS FROM BRAZIL. HE FIGHTS LIKE THE RUSSIANS. WHEN YOU WATCH HIM FIGHT YOU NEED TO CHANGE THE BATTERIES IN YOUR CO2 MONITORS JUST TO MAKE SURE IT'S VALTER PUTTING YOU TO SLEEP AND NOT THE SILENT KILLER. HE'S LEGIT TRASH AND HE ONLY LOOKS LIKE HE'S GOOD BECAUSE HEAVYWEIGHTS CAN'T WRESTLE AND HE'S HUGE. LUKASZ HAS SUBS AND EXPERIENCE AND NO MORE USADA SO I'M GONNA HOPE HE'S WITH THE RIGHT MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS TO GUIDE HIM THROUGH THIS TRANSITION.

Peek vs. Campbell
Trevor Peek, TKO, R1
I'M PICKING PEEK BECAUSE HE DID A STANDING HAMMERFIST IN A FIGHT. SERIOUSLY CAMPBELL IS THE BETTER SKILLED FIGHTER BUT YOU DON'T GET ANY KIND OF RESPECT FOR PUTTING DOWN A DUDE THAT HADN'T FOUGHT IN 7 YEARS. THE FACT THAT IT TOOK AS LONG AS IT DID MAKES ME QUESTION HIS POWER. THE DUCAN LOSS MAKES ME QUESTION HIS POWER AS WELL AS HIS DEFENSE AND HIS CHIN. THOSE THINGS ARE OF MAJOR CONCERN IN THIS FIGHT IN PARTICULAR BECAUSE IF YOU'RE IN A FIGHT ON THE FEET AND YOU WOBBLE CHRIS DUCAN 4 SEPERATE TIMES AND YOU LET HIM ONE PUNCH KNOCK YOU OUT THEN I KNOW FOR A FACT PEEK CAN DO THAT ONE THING. PEEK ISN'T SKILLED AT ALL REALLY BUT HE'S TOUGH AND HE'S IMPROVING. THE CHEPE FIGHT WAS A SURPRISE TO MANY BUT CHEPE HAS BASICALLY BEEN IN THE UFC FOR LIKE 8 YEARS BEFORE HE MADE IT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE WHO HE'S FOUGHT THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE UFC AND HE WENT THE DISTANCE WITH HIM AND HURT HIM OFTEN. HE FOLLOWED THAT UP WITH A WRESTLING HEAVY WIN. HE IMMEDIATELY IMPROVED AND I DON'T EXPECT THAT TO STOP. I THINK DOG MONEY ON A DAWG OF A FIGHTER LIKE PEEK IS GOOD MONEY. CAMPBELL LOOKS THE PART AND HE'S ONLY BEEN FINISHED ONE TIME BUT WHO IT WAS AND HOW IT HAPPENED SCREAMS MEME KO NUMBER 2 FOR CAMPBELL. I HAVEN'T CHECKED THE BOOKS BUT I'M ASSUMING PEEK WILL BE A +300 DOG. THE SUB COULD BE LIVE BECAUSE I THINK PEEK HAS BEEN WORKING ON HIS GROUND GAME AND HE SEEMS LIKE THE TYPE OF DUDE WHO IF YOU TEACH HIM ONE SUB AT A TIME HE'LL GET REALLY GOOD AT IT. SOMETIMES HEART AND IGNORANCE IS ALL YOU NEED.

McGee vs. Morono
Alex Morono, DEC
ALEX MORONO IS GOOD HE'S JUST CHINNY. I THINK THE COACH WILL GET THE WIN OVER SOMEONE WHO REALLY LOOKS WASHED IN HIS LAST COUPLE FIGHTS. WHO KNOWS THOUGH, I'M MORE THAN POSITIVE THAT COURT BELIEVES HE CAN WIN THIS FIGHT AND IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE BECAUSE MORONO HAS LOST A COUPLE FIGHTS HE WAS WELL ON HIS WAY TO WINNING.

Dumont vs. de Randamie
Norma Dumont, DEC
NORMA SHOULD FINISH THIS CHICK...BUTT...I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SHE FIGURED OUT HOW TO CARRY A CHICK THAT WE ALL THOUGHT RETIRED ACROSS THE FINISHLINE TO DECSION. I PUT DECISION BECAUSE THAT'S NORMA...BUTT...SHE'S LIVE FOR A TKO IN THE SECOND OR THIRD, SHOULD TECHNICALLY BE THE FIRST BECAUSE GERMAINE HAS BEEN GONE FOR 4 YEARS BUTT WE WON'T WON'T HOLD OUR BREATH FOR THAT ONE. NORMA EITHER NEEDS TO SHOW US SOMETHING IN THE OCTAGON OR ON OF BECAUSE THE LACK OF ACTION IN ANY FASHION IS OUTRAGEOUS AT THIS POINT.

Alateng vs. Hugo
Victor Hugo, SUB, R1
VICTOR HUGO TALKS TO MUCH ISH TO NOT WIN THIS FIGHT BY FINISH. HE MISSED WEIGHT ON HIS DEBUT AND HONESTLY HE PROBABLY WOULD'VE GOTTEN TUNED UP BY MARCOS. I LIKE HIS SWAG AND CONFIDENCE BUT WHAT I SEE IS A SLOW POWERFUL STRIKER WHO DOESN'T HAVE ANY TECHNICAL FOOTWORK OR DEFENSIVE RESPONSIBILITY WHO IS ACTUALLY A GREAT SUBMISSION GRAPPLER. NOT TO THRILLED ABOUT THE DEBUT WEIGHT MISS, THE SUSPECT CARDIO OR HIS LACK OF TECHNICAL STAND UP...BUT ALATENG IS NOT GOOD. HE LITERALLY LETS YOU GET YOUR ENTIRE GAME OFF ON THE FEET AND WILL COME FORWARD CONSTANTLY TO GET IN FRONT OF YOU AND LET YOU BEAT HIS FACE IN OR LEGS OFF. HE'S FINISHED ONE GUY IN ALMOST 8 YEARS AND HUGO FINISHES PEOPLE, LITERALLY THE ONLY THING HE REALLY DOES WELL IS CLOSE OUT A FIGHT SMOOTHLY. HUGO WILL SURELY BE A FADE IN THE FUTURE JUST NOT AGAINST THIS FIGHTER. WHATEVER ADVANTAGE ALATENG HAS IN SPEED AND UFC EXPERIENCE HE NEGATES THROUGH ABSOLUTELY NOT DOING ANYTHING. HUGO IS GONNA DO SOMETHING.

Calvillo vs. Rodriguez
Piera Rodriguez, DEC
THIS SEEMS LIKE A SET UP SPOT TO GET THE YOUNGER FIGHTER WITH A GOOD BACKGROUND STORY A WIN TO GET BACK ON TRACK AFTER TAKING AN L. THE ONLY ISSUE IS SHE'S FIGHTING ANOTHER GIRL THAT'S JUST COMING DOWN FROM 125 AGAIN. RODRIGUEZ SHOULD GET THIS DONE AND HONESTLY SHE SHOULD GET IT DONE BY FINISH BUT SHE MAKES TO MANY MISTAKES ON THE GROUND TO BE TRUSTED TO RUN THROUGH A WASHED CALVILLO, PLUS SHE MIGHT EVEN GET SUBBED AGAIN IF SHE HASN'T CLEANED UP THAT BS SHE WAS PULLING WITH ROBERTSON LAST TIME. JUST BECAUSE YOU'RE GOOD ON TOP THAT DOESN'T MEAN YOU'RE GOOD ON THE GROUND, NOTHING OFF HER BACK BUT MISTAKE AFTER MISTAKE.

Matsumoto vs. Argueta
Jean Matsumoto, TKO, R3
MATSUMOTO IS SPECIAL AND DAN IS DETERMINED. NOT SUPER CONFIDENT ABOUT THE PICK BECAUSE I DO THINK DAN HAS A OPPORTUNITY TO BLITZ THE KID AND GET A LUCKY SUB BUT JEAN IS SPECIAL. BANTAMWEIGHT GETS CRAZIER EVERY YEAR AND JEAN IS A REAL DEAL MONSTER ANYWHERE THE FIGHT GOES. FULL FIGHT CARDIO, THE STRIKING IS PERFECT, THE DEFENSE IS PERFECT AND HE DOES IT IN A POSITION WHERE YOU GOTTA COME THROUGH CRAZY AMOUNTS OF COMBINATIONS TO GET TO HIS HIPS FOR THE TAKEDOWN. HE'S NOT GONNA GAS AND HE IS GONNA GIVE YOU THE BUSINESS FOR THE ENTIRE 15 MINUTES. YOU WILL NOT GET A BREAK AND YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO STAND IF YOU CAN'T CHECK A KICK.

Budka vs. Almeida
César Almeida, TKO, R2
CESAR FOUGHT POATON 3 TIMES AND BEAT HIM ONCE. DYLAN DOESN'T HAVE ANYTHING BUT WRESTLING IN REGULAR MATCHUPS BUT IN THIS ONE HE'S NOT SUPER SAFE ON THE GROUND EITHER. CESAR HAS THE SKILLS, POWER AND CARDIO FOR EVERYWHERE THE FIGHT GOES. EXCELLENT EVERYTHING.

Mullins vs. Cornolle
Nora Cornolle, TKO, R1
Nora is the stronger fighter, more skilled fighter and she beat the better fighter in her debut. if russian rhonda is scoring knockdowns with her terrible striking in the first round then Nora is gonna smoke her. you need way more than a jab to beat Thai fighting and i don't see it.

I will be dropping my picks later this week.

Because I feel sorry for all you Poors, I am going to add a new section. My bets for the week.

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Bro if you are that much of an expert or that good at Betting and picking winners and cashing big bank money, why you sell your picks for $10 a month. LOL LOL LOL. What about the millions you are winning? You need the $5 to buy a latte? GTFOH

I should charge. Because something as valuable as my picks should not be free. But why would I charge peanuts when I make real cash money. It's an insult to take that kind of money. So all you lucky dullards will get them free. Always free. Because I actually make money. I don't need it from you Poors.

So look out for my "Billionaire Bonanza Bets" section. Coming soon. You're welcome 🙏 

* Edited at 03.31.2024, 6:42 PM ET *

***, rah.

u said if fiorot cashes that's your retirement card.
- she did. go chill now, please.

u are still here. and guess what? no one still cares about your bets or picks. who and for what you want to charge exactly? for never being out of tomato ranking? that's a real plan.

* Edited at 03.31.2024, 6:53 PM ET *

 Rah123   you are sounding more like  Andrew1047   day by day.

Guys guys. Cmon. Andrew? The guy who picks 3 minus 3000 favourites and parlays them together? And got banned for 100 years after accusing me of having Alts? Accusing me! From the guy who has 1000 alts!

I am trying to help you guys. Make you rich. Like me.

And still all I get is negativity. Like Jesus on the cross... they know not what they do

It's ok I will ignore all negative comments and put out my bets. For free. And I know secretly you will all be using them. 

* Edited at 03.31.2024, 7:08 PM ET *

Allen vs. Curtis II
Chris Curtis, TKO, R2
I'm seeing alot of strong takes for Allen to avenge the loss against Curtis but I just feel like this is a bad match-up for him. I know he's on a bit of a tear, but that's been primarily against grapplers (Malkoun, Muniz and Craig). Whenever he's come up against a striker he generally fights 50/50 (Has beaten Puna/Silva but lost to strickland and curtis). and think it comes down to the fact he's a bit chinny. Curtis has looked a bit old lately in his performances and the game-plan is out on how to beat him (Movement on the outside and not engage in a fire-fight). I just can't see Allen adhering to that gameplan. Add the fact that I don't see him pushing a wrestling pace and I think Curtis can catch him again on the chin.

Peek vs. Campbell
Charlie Campbell, TKO, R2
For as much as we love Peek as he always comes to fight, I think Campbell is the much better MMA fighter. My only worry here is if Campbell shows autism and decides to get in a fire-fight with Peek on the feet it might not end well. If he decides to sit at range and chew up Peek's leg with the kick he will have alot of success. Could see a leg kick KO

McGee vs. Morono
Alex Morono, TKO, R1
Bad match-up for Court. His durability is going on him and I can't see him getting the wrestling going because Morono's TDD is solid. Whether Morono has the one punch power to put away Court I am not so sure but he's a savvy veteran and I think he wins minutes regardless of where the fight takes place.

Alateng vs. Hugo
Alatengheili Alateng, DEC
Haven't done too much tape on this but Hugo could be a bit of a fade spot in the UFC much due to his style being submission or bust. My thinking on this is I'd expect Alateng to come into this fight with a good game plan if he's training out of Fight Ready

Calvillo vs. Rodriguez
Cynthia Calvillo, DEC
Not sold on either lady but I am not sold on Piera at favourite odds. She appears to pack some power but she's quite low volume, suspect cardio and the gameplan is out on her that she can be broken on the ground against someone with good BJJ. She does attack the single leg takedown although she struggles to win minutes on the ground because her BJJ is a bit suspect.Calvillo record looks terrible but I do favour her level of competition. She hates being hit but in the last fight against Loopy I actually liked her volume last fight. I just get the feeling this is a bad matchup for Piera

Matsumoto vs. Argueta
Dan Argueta, DEC
I'm going with Argueta here. Re-watching his tape he either looks like a world beater (Mairon Santos fight) or like the last fight where his cardio fails him and walks forward with an IQ of 3 and takes damage. I worry about Argueta if this is extended, especially if Matsumoto can establish the leg kick as I don't think Argueta knows how to check. My gut feel is Argueta can get the wrestling going early and win 75% of the minutes on the ground. One thing I've noticed on Matsumoto is he will jump-guillotine which I don't like against a wrestle heavy fighter who seems to understand BJJ positions. I would need to see Argueta on the scale before I consider locking in a bet because 135lbs looks tough for him.

Budka vs. Almeida
Dylan Budka, DEC
Picking Budka although there are some reservations, mainly because I thought after his last fight he wanted to move to 170lbs. Watching his tape I feel he understands his limitations in the striking and wont engage too much on the feet. Cardio seems good to push a 15 minute wrestling pace which I think he can have success with here. Even though Almeida won his last fight and his TDD defence held up, I'm not sold on it much due to his last opponent gassing. His best weapon here arguably will be spamming the leg kick. I'll pick Budka ML, maybe he could be live for a late finish as Almeida is old.

Mullins vs. Cornolle
Nora Cornolle, DEC
Going to pick the underdog here. I think Mullins is a bit fradulent. She is tough but she seems to be very hittable and generally her face shows alot of damage in here fights which is not a good look. Her best quality is once she gets the takedown she has a good understanding on maintaining top control for long periods. I'm unsure about Cornolle's TDD defence over 3 rounds but I have a feeling she will be winning minutes on the feet with her striking. I'll pick Cornolle because I think the line is way too wide.

 Rah123  I didn't mean it in a negative way, we need someone to stir up some **** on this forum every once in a while to keep it entertaining.

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* Edited at 03.31.2024, 7:26 PM ET *

Of course Bro. And no offence taken. I've always liked you unlike Piggy the 🐖 

How the **** is Curtis still ranked atp, I get that MW is bad but seeing him in the rankings especially above guys like Robocop and Michel just feels super crazy to me, all his fights are sparring matches

@PiggyBank 

Rah the tomato 🍅 picker

Rich tomato 👍

McGee vs Morono 
Morono KO RD 2

solid veteran fight but unfortunately Mcgee is just cooked. There wasn't a decline in physical skills but after being brutally slept in his last 2 I imagine Mcgee doesn't have much left in the tank. Now despite having no chin, I don't want the recency bias to influence the line too much. Morono hits hard but isn't a finisher. Hes also a bit of a weenie physically; hes in good shape but not a natural athlete and I think that's actually been one of morono's biggest pitfalls. Now Mcgee isn't going to be able to take advantage of this but, I wouldn't say morono holds any physical advantages besides just being younger. Morono's durability is also not good (another one of his key flaws) but Mcgee is not a finishing threat and again, his chin is beyond shot. Mcgee is just an old vet who tries to grind you out; I don't see him having any success doing that because morono always has good cardio & his grappling is good enough to keep it on the feet/get up if taken down. I think the striking count will be close but morono is going to be landing the better shots and he will push a higher pace than Mcgee if needs be. He isn't really a ko guy but has underrated power imo, I think hes gonna land a counter shot and then finish Mcgee from there.

Dumont vs GDR 
Dumont DEC

much liken the other WMMA fight, I wanted to look into this because GDR legit has a good chance here, but its so hard to back a 40 year old who hasn't fought in 4 years + its WMMA so who cares. Dumont is actually pretty good but she underperforms all the time. She also can't make 135 so weigh ins will be interesting. If Dumont wrestles this will be an easy fight. She's likely going to stand with gdr tho so that immediately makes this vert close, as even washed gdr is still a high level kickboxer. Expecting Dumont to lay an egg here but gotta take the younger, more active girl here in Dumont.

Heili vs Silva 
Heili DEC 

this may actually be the weirdest fight on the card. Heili has such a strange fight style; he kind of just does the bare minimum and wins fights. He low-key can crack but doesn't have the iq to finish fights. His boxing is solid but he is a head hunter and doesn't really mix or set anything up; he just kinda throws stuff out there and hope it comes close enough to hitting. He throws at a decent clip but you'll see he lands almost nothing because he doesn't set his shots up & ends up punching the air half the time. Heili is a wrestler but he doesn't use it until round 3 (not lying btw look at his stats), which is probably good here since Hugo is a leg locker. Hugo baffles me; he has a crazy padded record and is also a leg locker -- two of my biggest red flags. his nickname is striker but hes anything but; Hugo throws hard but he tries too hard to be Anderson silva. He keeps his hands low and only throws singular shots while also throwing no volume. I favor heili standing simply because he looks less ******** on the feet, Hugo fights like a clown. The grappling is where it gets strange, Hugo is a heel hooker. He has multiple fights (some may be fixed btw) where he oimanari rolls at the bell and gets a heel hook. If hes not doing this, he willingly pulls guard just so he can attack the legs. I will say, his leg lock circuit is clean, but it's such a terrible strategy for winning mma fights these days. I can see heili getting subbed but how does it get to the ground? Hugo is a terrible wrestler so unless heili willingly plays heel hooks with him, Hugo won't have much success until r3 when heili wrestles. Getting to r3 will be interesting because Hugo's cardio looks terrible. he has fought as high as 170 and he was breathing pretty heavy after 1 round on dwcs. Heili is low iq enough he could lose this, but I really am convinced Hugo is a fraud. Maybe he gets a meme kneebar, but I don't think that strategy will fly in the ufc

Calvillo vs Rodriguez 
Rodriguez DEC 

I low-key wanted to tape this one because I actually think you could make a case for calvillo, but I won't be betting this fight nor could I be bothered to watch either fight. I haven't been impressed with piera even on her dwcs fight. Her striking is aggressive but she is sloppy & relies heavily on takedowns to win fights. Calvillio is washed but she looked decent against loopy (although loopy sucks) and has always had good tdd, so this might be closer than it should be.

Matsumoto vs Argueta 
Matusmoto DEC 

this is a really tricky one. I rate Matsumoto highly but this is a fight he could lose. despite the 14-0 record, he is very green. One thing I like is every fight he shows massive improvements; for example, in his lfa fights he was getting taken down & even lost a round, then he faces a high level wrestler on dwcs and looked really solid with his defense. I think Argueta is pretty bad but he could end up doing what I expected tanner to do here, which is hold Matsumoto down with wrestling. Argueta's wrestling looks elite at times (Lawrence or Santos fight) but then other times he can't even complete a single leg so idk what to think. His top control is dangerous but he is dumb and has allowed all of his opponents to get up with relative ease. regardless of what Argueta shows up, this is a mismatch standing. Matsumoto will probably get hit a few times, but he is levels above on the feet. Argeuta powerful but low volume, very sloppy, and doesn't know how to strike. He just runs with his chin in the air and throws a haymaker from his waist. His cardio is weird too because some fights hes gassed after round 1 yet just fights through it. If Argueta is able to get takedowns I think he can definitely upset Matsumoto; I think Matsumoto is a stud but hes super young & argueta isn't as bad as his ufc record looks. I think im gonna pick Matsumoto for now but I want to see weigh ins first. This is a pick im gonna be flip flopping a lot on, I think both sides have a good argument, even if I think these two are on opposite career paths.

Budka vs Almeida 
Budka SUB RD 3

Debating switching to decision but I have a feeling once budka gets rolling here, this will end in a finish. Ik Almeida has a KB background and beat poatan almost 12 years ago (his claim to fame) but he is no izzy or poatan. His striking obviously looked good on dwcs but not super high level. His actual boxing looked very good, he fought behind a nice jab and you can see he naturally hits very hard. However, he threw hardly anything other than punches & what shocked me the most was his footwork; bro had zero lateral movement, very strange coming from a kickboxer. He is definitely a good striker but I think many people will be able to beat him standing. His grappling surprised me on dwcs, but the more I watch it the more I realize just how trash his opponent was. Fernando had no ground game whatsoever and he was taking Almeida down very easily. Almeida showed surprising awareness on the ground but I think that was more his opponent being terrible than Almeida being a good grappler. Budka is only good at one thing, wrestling. He is gonna shoot and shoot the entire fight and I think that's going to be really hard for Almeida to deal with. most likely will be a really boring decision but if Budka is having easy td success then I don't see why he can't find a submission late; Almeida seems very low level to me, love the price on Budka.

Mullins vs Cornolle 
Mullins KO RD 2

weird fight. Really liked cornolle outside the ufc but once she started facing real comp ive been turned away. I really thought her debut was highway robbery; Edwards didn't do anything w takedowns but you can't sit on your back for 11 min and win a fight imo, especially when you aren't rocking your opponent on the feet. She comes from an MT background, her hands are okay and she's violent but nothing special. Definitely has a standup advantage here tho, Dixon has nothing to offer on the feet. She's got terrible defense (dropped in her last two) but she is a tough girl. her wrestling is bad but im actually kind of impressed with her grappling. She throws a ton of gnp/looks for sub attempts frequently and her transitional grappling is very good imo; she follows you to every position and is just very suppressive. Cornolle is better on the feet but I think she's going to find herself lost on the ground. getting outwrestled by Edwards is already a red flag, now try going up against a girl who actually does something with her top control.

Allen vs Curtis II 
Curtis KO RD 3

Im super conflicted here. Allen rebounded from the Curtis loss nicely, but I don't think hes improved all that much & he hasn't beaten anyone impressive since then. At the same time, Curtis's style has pretty much been figured out & I think the milage on him is starting to catch up. Hes very good at what he does, but he is a flawed fighter. Despite this, Im really not sure if Allen has improved enough to beat Curtis. I think Allen's striking is pretty good but he has so many bad defensive habits. He also doesn't stick on the outside or pick people apart with kicks, so he is going to give Curtis a favorable fight. I think Allen should be able to out volume Curtis but he has such bad head movement that the pocket exchanges are going to worry me. Allen is pretty stationary so he won't do the right things to cut off Curtis & limit his striking. Allen should easily be able to outvolume Curtis but im really worried when Curtis counters him. Allen just doesn't move his head and curtis is a master of counter striking. I also haven't seen any wrestling improvements from Allen that make me think he can get Curtis down. If he is able to get Curtis down, the fight will be over but unless hes taking the back standing (almost did in the first fight) or somehow ends up on the mat I don't see him getting takedowns. That takes away the best part of his game and forces him to stand with Curtis. I know Allen is probably the right pick & I really want to pick him, but I have a bad feeling he has deja vu here; he really hasn't added anything different to his skillset & is still getting landed on by guys like malkoun and getting rocked by Blindado. I also don't like this pick because Curtis is so one dimensional, but that one dimension also happens to be difficult for Allen to deal with

Hernandez vs Jackson 
Hernandez KO RD 1

I don't like Hernandez at 145 but I love him in this matchup. Ive faded Jackson in almost every ufc fight hes had. He is a crafty vet & had a lot of success in the ufc but I personally think his style is so bad. He tries to strike too much when he is really quite poor on the feet; he hasn't been put out in a while but his chin is not good and his head movement is minimal. His striking is awkward and he can hit you with some offbeat kicks. Compared to Hernandez, who is dynamic and explosive, I think Jackson is going to get smoked on the feet. Hernandez's movement is so much better and he is also faster than Jackson. Hernandez will mix in takedowns (and should get them pretty easily) and he is mean on the ground. He postures up and tries to beat the **** out of you with gnp. Jackson is tricky with his bjj but I think Hernandez is fine from top; my only worry is he pulls a stunt and gets subbed late doing something dumb. Besides that, or gassing out bad from a weight cut I think Hernandez is going to smoke Jackson here.


Charriere vs Mariscal 
Charriere KO RD 3

another great fight & also very tricky to call. I like chepe a lot but he has overachieved in the ufc imo; he has looked solid but going to war with peek isn't the best look and he was getting pieced by Jenkins before the injury. Chepe does bring the dog out & go to war, but his striking is not very high level. He is good at just landing volume but he throws strikes from the weirdest angles & has such an unconventional punching style. He has a KB background as well and has translated decent footwork and some good kicks to his game. Chepe's chin has held up very well in the ufc but he is not invincible; hes been put out before and his defense is pretty sloppy. Charriere is no stranger to a brawl but he has better shot selection and he is very accurate when he lets his hands go. He has a really bad habit of fighting to his opponent's level, which translates to pretty low volume at times but chepe only knows to brawl so Morgan shouldn't have volume problems. I originally was worried about chepe's grappling but it's not as good as I remembered. He comes from a judo background & he does have some sneaky trips but his control is poor & he will rush to positions a lot. Conversely, Morgan's grappling is much better than I remembered; he has been put in some really bad positions by some trash fighters, but he has also shown really good tdd at times and some solid wrestling of his own. This is a really close fight but I will go Morgan here.

Bahamondes vs Giagos 
Bahamondes SUB RD 2

watching bahamondes's fights back, he honestly didn't wow me as much as I remembered. Hes still really talented but I think there's more rounding out that needs to be done. His last fight was a disappointing performance imo, even though Klein is good; bahamondes got cracked early and then was pretty flat the rest of the fight. Giagos is solid early on but he gasses hard after 7-8 minutes if he doesn't get finished early. His striking is so sloppy compared to bahamondes's; he has basic kickboxing skills but he swings really wild and looping shots. He can crack, but he is very uncoordinated and has punched himself out numerous times. Bahamondes is very hittable but he is a huge LW and has a dynamic range of striking so I believe he will weather the storm and outpoint giagos easily. Giagos might try to wrestle early but I don't think he will have a ton of success. Bahamondes ko is more likely but I could see a situation identical to the zellhuber & rongzhu fights where giagos dives in for a takedown while gassed & gives his neck up.

Brzeski vs Walker 
Walker KO RD 2

walker is going to win this fight but please don't bet on him, he is so bad. Yes, hes related to Johnny and yes hes undefeated but his tape is really bad. All his fights are against cans and he didn't even look good in most of them; his most recent fight is just pure comedy. Walker is a massive hw but he lacks all the skill and athleticism of his brother. He is so uncomfortable at range and only throws when hes in the pocket or dirty boxing in the clinch. He has okay power but nothing special for a heavyweight. Kind of worried brzeski does what he did to buday, and just out volume him with kicks but he likely can't avoid the takedowns. Walker's double leg was kind of clean in his last fight but I've been unimpressed with his wrestling for the most part; should be enough to get past brzeski though. Brzeski cannot grapple at all & while walker is a ****** heavyweight, he will grind out top control and has some semblance of grappling. Both have awful cardio, brezski's is weird in that sometimes he looks like hes dying but fights through it. I think this is going to look really ugly but walker should win

Peek vs Campbell 
Campbell KO RD 1

love everything about this fight. I respect peek trying to get better & fighting a more relaxed fight against yahya, but I think hes one of those guys who shouldn't stray from their bread & butter. Peek just doesn't have the technical skills to cut it in the ufc, he isn't exactly good when he brawls but at least he can break some low level guys with his pressure. No matter what version shows up though, I think Peek is in for a rough night here. Campbell is pretty underrated imo; that Duncan loss is always going to haunt him but he has some really sharp boxing. Campbell throws everything with killer intent, but unlike peek he is actually calculated and sets his strikes up with feints and combinations. One of Campbells favorite weapons is leg kicks; they aren't amazing but he will throw lots of them and has multiple ko's by leg kick. I don't think peek knows how to check leg kicks nor does he understand what feints are. Campbell definitely has his defensive holes (and he has that bad habit of leaving his chin in the air still) but so does peek; peek has no defense and relies on his chin. Campbell throws 100% with everything and I think his counter strikes & jab are really going to mess up peek who plods forward and throws looping hooks. One thing that worries me is if this gets extended; Campbell's style requires a lot of energy and he rarely goes to decision. If he uses all his energy teeing off on peek there is a chance peek comes back and knocks him out. Watching back the chepe fight, I think this is unlikely as peek was dead tired halfway through but it's definitely a path to victory for peek. Besides that, I think Campbell is going to smoke him

Is it just me or are there going to be a lot of decisions on this card?

Dumont vs. de Randamie
Germaine de Randamie, DEC
Honestly, I don't think Norma is that great. She is the favorite for her

Alateng vs. Hugo
Victor Hugo, SUB, R2
Don't have a great read on this one. I'll go Hugo because I think that Alateng has a limited skillset. If Victor is any good, he should be able to beat a guy like Alateng.

Matsumoto vs. Argueta
Dan Argueta, DEC
I think Dan is just going to rack up takedowns and get a grueling decision. This fight is for his job as well.

Budka vs. Almeida
César Almeida, DEC
Cesar is definitely a confident guy having a win over the Alex Pereira. I think he may land the better shots but I don't know much about the other guy. No bet for me.

Allen vs. Curtis II
Brendan Allen, SUB, R2
Brendan has crazy momentum going into this one. I think he is looking to make a statment. I also think that Chris may not take his career seriously enough. I think he may be one of those guys that just show up to scrap without focusing on winning. Brendan is that guy despite his loss to Curtis. I think Allen comes out here and shows Curtis the improvements. I can see straight punches and good movement from Allen. I can even see takedowns a little later on.

Hernandez vs. Jackson
Alexander Hernandez, DEC
What even is this fight? I think Hernandez wins a decision. This fight could be disastrous in terms of predicting it.

Charriere vs. Mariscal
Morgan Charriere, DEC
Chepe is like that guy that just wins and wins and wins. You sit there scratching your head. However, I think Morgan is going to piece Chepe up and be able to win the minutes.

Bahamondes vs. Giagos
Ignacio Bahamondes, DEC
This should be competitive. I'm not taking anything away from Christos. He has tight boxing with quick punches. I'm just not sure if he is UFC level. Then again, Ignacio has made questionable decisions. I expect Ignacio to get a competitive decision.

Brzeski vs. Walker
Valter Walker, TKO, R1
Brzeski doesn't really have that "it" factor. Walker does. He's probably going to be making a statement here. If not, Brzeski might get a close decision.

Peek vs. Campbell
Trevor Peek, TKO, R2
I think that Campbell is breakable. He reminds me of Tom Nolan in a sense. Very good fight ending power. He can push an uncomfortable pace on the opponent. I will say, though. Peek is an absolute dog. Give me Trevor to take Campbell's soul in 2 rounds.

McGee vs. Morono
Alex Morono, DEC
I expect Morono to hurt McGee on multiple occasions here.