UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Hill is probably taking this fight cause he deep down knows he wouldn't be making that much money fighting Ankalaev.

That being said, I think he has a good chance to catch Alex here. This won't be hitting the canvas, so he just needs to focus on his striking. 

Poatan is great, but his striking defense pretty much depends on his reflexes, which I think is a huge problem in heavier weight classes. 

If this was Hill before the injury, I'd give him a better chance, but right now is 60-40% in favor of Pereira.

I'm still sort of on the fence on how I feel the fight will go with Kattar being 35 and coming off another injury, but I think many of you are severely under-estimating Aljo in this fight. I think the size difference is being grossly over-stated. Aljo ran through Sandhagen who is another primary striker that's the same exact size as Kattar. 

I think Kattar probably wins a decision, but I'm nowhere near as confident in that as some of the rest of you sound. 

Well it was a smaller octagon and Cory only threw 2 strikes, we're assuming Kattar does better

Smaller octagon or not, just pointing out Aljo has handedly beaten a primary striker the same size as Kattar. Like Kattar, Aljo walks around very heavy. I'm pretty sure I remember reading he walks around at like ~165lbs. I think he will have some added strength from not killing himself to cut that extra 10lbs. 

Kattar is coming of a torn ACL and has absorbed over 700 strikes in his last 4 fights. People might be forgetting that Max probably took years off of Kattars life with how badly he beat the **** out of him. The fight with Emmett didn't have the same volume but that was another war. 

At 35, I definitely have questions about what version of Kattar were going to get. That being said, his path to victory is fairly simple if Aljo can't have success grappling with him. I just think his health is a massive question mark. 

Just now realised that Kattar has been out for almost one and a half years. Feels like yesterday when he beat up Giga Chikadze.

@foppa420 

Corey made all the mistakes possible in 30 seconds. Naked kick to catch. Pushed against the cage. Turned and  gave up his back. Then flops to his back to make the body lock tighter and the neck crank go under the chin. Everything you dont want to do against a grappler all in less than a minute 

To that same comparison of body size. He failed his 2 takedowns against Sean and then was starched. Kattar and O'malley have the exact same height and reach. 

Corey is also a bantamweight because he weighs significantly less than kattar. I said it earlier in here but kattar walks around near 180 lbs. idk Corey’s weight but he would definitely not be making that cut if he was 180 

The corey that fought aljo was much more content to get taken down because he was confident in his bjj. Now, he’s more wrestling heavy with his gameplan. Kattar is a boxer, his footwork is completely different to Corey’s and he doesn’t throw any leg kicks whatsoever

* Edited at 02.22.2024, 1:52 PM ET *

Should add Kattar will actually turn 36 before this fight happens. While Aljo isn't much younger, there's a very big difference in how the last few fights have gone for both men. 

Aljo has done 3 pro grappling matches since getting finished by OMalley. His strategy in this fight seems fairly obvious. 

Well yeah he is a grappler, if he tries to strike with kattar he will get knocked out. I have never thought aljo’s striking is that amazing. It’s a weird, funky (no pun intended) style where he just attacks with this weird kicks. It’s annoying to deal with but Sterling doesn’t do much damage at all and I don’t think his defense is actually that amazing. We saw how Sean made him look silly on the feet by setting him up. Now that he’s up a weight class, I don’t think his striking is going to be very effective against guys who are the same height as Sean and bigger 

The result might have been the same no matter what, but Aljo essentially got bullied into fighting OMalley. He took that fight on a 12 week turn around after going 25 minutes with Cejudo. That's on par with what Volk, Izzy and Usman did at a point as champions. When Volk fought twice in 3 months it was against Max, a guy he'd beaten twice already, and the shell of the Korean Zombie. When Izzy fought 3 times in one year, he got a LHW title shot followed by rematches against two guys he'd beaten already. When Usman was tapped to fight a 2nd time in 8 weeks, he fought someone he'd already beaten in Masvidal. Aljo had to fight a former Olympic wrestler and champion, followed by the promotions ******* golden goose, in a span of 12 weeks. The UFC did everything possible to get that belt off of Aljo's waist.

All that being said, I think he has enough size and overall skill to be successful at featherweight. Yes, he is essentially the complete opposite style fighter, but Josh Emmett has the same reach and is an inch smaller than Aljo. If this was booked 2 years ago I probably wouldn't even be entertaining the thought Aljo could win here. Sometimes it is to my own peril for sure, but I'm extremely weary about picking fighters coming off long layoffs and/or injuries despite the stylistic matchup looking good on paper. 

I'm leaning Kattar, but I definitely think this is winnable fight for Aljo. I will probably be rooting for him too because the featherweight rankings desperately needs a shake up.  

I get the size comparison but josh emmett is a completely different fighter than aljo. He is the hardest hitter in the division and kattar played that fight very defensive compared to his other ones because he did not want to get caught (and he was robbed badly btw). Aljo doesn’t have any power at all and in fact his game is much more kick heavy, his actual hands are not very good. On the feet, I think this is one of the least dangerous people kattar has fought; I legitimately can’t see aljo doing anything other than just annoying him with kicks on the feet 

Also yes the ufc did bully him into taking the fight but at the end of the day, he signed on the dotted line and said he wanted to take the risk. I don’t think it’s fair to judge the turnaround; should we discount Ilias win because volk should not have turned around that fast? 

And the injury point is totally valid, kattar has taken a ton of damage in his career and is 36, but I have faith he can bounce back; he was able to recover from the holloway beat down and was looking really good until the allen fight. 

* Edited at 02.22.2024, 3:18 PM ET *

It’s not souly about the height and reach, it a lot to do with the style matchup which is going to emphasise the range advantage, it doesn’t matter if they’re a range disadvantage if they’re grappling which is how Sterling beat Sandhagen, and it matter less if your going to be in the inside like Emmet did, The reason I’m sus with Sterling having a reach disadvantage is that he use range tools and is primarily a kicker against someone with a reach disadvantage, Also Sterling has no power in his hands

Also, Doubt he smashes Katter on the ground, Katter takedown defence is the best part of his game, only been taken down twice and in the both time he didn’t get held down for long, doubt Sterling get a Wresling clinic on him

I also don’t think Sterlings wrestling is that amazing, it’s his bjj that’s very good. Most of the time he has to attempt like 10-15 takedowns just to get 2/3. Granted, one takedown and the round can be over but he is still not an amazing wrestler by any means, he is just a very good chain wrestler and drags on you. I think going up a weight class, he’s going to struggle to get it to the ground against a lot of people 

His wrestling isn’t good at all that’s why he couldn’t beat that butt scoot guy

Well actually it was pretty good against Cejudo huh

Crazy how that works

I guess that’s bjj huh, because you don’t have to start standing

Cejudo is a former flyweight who was massively outsized. Olympic level wrestling does not directly translate to mma skills 

The main point I’m trying to make (that seems to go over everyone’s head) is Sterling has had a big size advantage in almost every fight. And yes I know about his height and reach, I’m talking about weight. Everyone knows Sterling was one of the biggest bws, but for a featherweight he is probably around average size if not a little bigger. I’m sure he’s still retained his skills (at least what’s left because I do think he used up his prime now) but fighting 10 pounds heavier changes how you fight. Look at RDA for example, he was a champion at 155 and while he did reach a title shot at 170, he very quickly realized that he couldn’t deal with the wrestling at 170, despite being a pretty good wrestler down at 155

* Edited at 02.22.2024, 5:17 PM ET *

this dude just had a conversation with himself I'm crying 😭

I think Kattar vs. Sterling will happen the same way as when Kattar fought Lamas: Kattar is going to stuff takedowns attempts and puts Aljo lights out with his boxing skills and KO Power. Calvin is coming from a Terrible ACL injury and his mobility may probably be reduced, but he will have the advantage in height and reach and unlike in the Batamweight division, Sterling will not have a size advantage in Featherweight.