UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

You have a good point regarding damage vs control

Who knows what the judges are looking for. In fact I think they aren't looks for anything. They probably decide who they are giving the fight to before the fight starts 

Lol at people calling most of these fights 50/50

Just tells me that you don't know how to analyse  fights

A good example is the Usman/Parkin fight... you guys really think thats a 50/50 fight???? 🤦🤦🤦

Obviously you either don't watch tape or you have no idea how to analyse fights.

Let me give you guys a helping hand... just to start you on your way to actually being able to analyse tape study

Watch a fight of Parkin. Then watch a fight of Usman.

Concentrate on just one thing to start with. When they throw strikes... is there a speed difference?

Who is going to win this fight should become very clear after about 5 mins of watching tape. Can it go otherwise? Sure, it's a heavy weight fight ... but there are clear advantages on one side here

You're welcome 👍💰💰💰

* Edited at 03.19.2024, 1:01 PM ET *

Is it just me or did the way that the Event Page shows up in your Phone change up ?

Ribas vs. Namajunas
Ribas DEC.
Close fight. But Ribas is in a great moment, I believe she can set her own pace.

Pajuelo vs. Padilla
PajueloTKO R2.
Pajuelo is a brawler, this will be a great fight, although Padilla has his wingspan in his favor, Pajuelo will have to shorten his range to connect his bombs, I believe he can achieve this until the second round.

Severino vs. Lima
Lima TKO.
Openfight, but I'm going to Lima, I want him to win while I restart my run for the UFC, so we can share the Octagon again in the near future, and have a real fight.

* Edited at 03.19.2024, 1:51 PM ET *

Who is everyone's most confident pick on this weekend's card? I'm really liking Namajunas to get back in the win column here against Ribas

Fighter Graphics & Early Bet for Saturday for those interested: https://oddsmokermma.com/2024/03/19/ufc-vegas-89-fighter-graphics-early-thoughts-first-bet-for-saturday/

Ribas vs. Namajunas
Rose Namajunas, TKO, R3
I like Ribas but Rose is the way better fighter and Ribas has terrible durability. I see Rose finishing her with a head kick or something crazy at some point to get back on track.

Williams vs. Tafa
Karl Williams, DEC
Williams will just rinse and repeat with takedowns. If this fight stays standing at any point for too long though there's a chance Tafa puts him out badly because Williams can't strike.

Shahbazyan vs. Dobson
Edmen Shahbazyan, TKO, R1
Edmen needs a win so bad here and the UFC is setting him up for one. He's gonna get a ground and pound finish in round 1 but if he doesn't then he probably gasses per usual and loses. Dobson is a bust and has looked sooo bad in the UFC.

Talbott vs. Saaiman
Cameron Saaiman, DEC
This fight will play out close but I'm actually leaning Saaiman here. If it gets greasy, Cameron can mix in takedowns and I think Payton will get exposed on the ground. I'm surprised the UFC is matching up two good prospects this early but whatever.

Quarantillo vs. Zalal
Billy Quarantillo, DEC
Quarantillo is gonna put a pace on Zalal for 3 rounds. Zalal has the cardio to keep up with the pace of Billy Q but he doesn't have the power to put him out. Billy will roll here. Zalal got cut and is on a nice win streak but he's gonna be welcomed back to the UFC with an L.

Pajuelo vs. Padilla
Fernando Padilla, TKO, R1
Pajuelo is gonna make this a crazy fight and I think Padilla comes out on top. Both guys are hittable but Pajuelo gets hit so much and I think he gets finished here.

Ogden vs. Holobaugh
Kurt Holobaugh, SUB, R2
I still don't know how Ogden wins UFC fights. He's so bad. Holobaugh gonna snatch his neck at some point.

Ramos vs. Erosa
Ricardo Ramos, TKO, R1
I think both guys are evenly skilled but Erosa has a TERRIBLE chin. I think Ramos finishes him early with something crazy but if he doesn't then maybe "Juicy J" can get a submission.

Johns vs. Gibson
Cody Gibson, DEC
Johns wont go for takedowns per usual and he will gas out anyways. Gibson is gonna win this however he wants. I used to like Johns but he's easy to break if it goes long because he gets so tired.

Nguyen vs. Errens
Steven Nguyen, DEC
Not high on either guy but I do like Nguyen more in this spot. I think he will throw way more volume and that'll land him a decision win in a close scrap. Errens isnt anything amazing but I wouldn't be shocked if he drops Steven at some point just because Steven has awful striking defense. I still think Nguyen wins.

Rendon vs. Zheleznyakova
Darya Zheleznyakova, DEC
Both of these fighters are terrible but I have to lean Darya here in her UFC debut. I like her striking way more than her opponents and I think she can stuff takedowns with ease in this spot. Rendon is slow and isn't really skilled anywehrr. She's going to try and take Darya down but she's not gonna get the takedowns and if she does then she's not gonna be able to hold her down. Darya is a huge future fade though but not in this spot.

Severino vs. Lima
André Lima, DEC
I lean Lima by decision because even though both guys are good, Lima can implement takedowns. This fight will play out close but I have to lean Lima because of that grappling edge.

Usman vs. Parkin
Mick Parkin, DEC
Mick Parkin isn't the best but he actually has some skill despite looking like **** in his last fight vs Machado. I fade Usman as much as I can because this guy sucks. Parkin should stuff takedowns and win this fight with his own grappling and I think he can even look better than Usman with the striking too.

@sirwinsalot420 

that numbers you put up doesn't say Sal is the king of split decs at all, he has 180 out of 900 when Lee has 120 out of 500. It actually looks like Sal has a relatively low ratio.

@VicStrk 

a new page design went live today. Here is a tweet thread explaining some of the changes:

https://twitter.com/tapology/status/1770128291241840650

first 5 round fight for Ribas too

I was at my other job when Ribas faced Pinheiro and I hadn't watched that fight until today. Just found out my Pinheiro +250 bet at the time was a very good call.

* Edited at 03.19.2024, 5:05 PM ET *

I'll echo the sentiment that I'm not that high on either guy, but if Nguyen lets Jarno hit him clean like he was letting that walking punchingbag Cunningham do for two rounds, it's gonna be a good night for Jarno Ernjoyers. 

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@Gregory 

love the design. any way in the future where we can get a premium version pay 10-15$ monthly and have the links to all the fights if they are available... youtube, fight pass and espn+ 

@MarioSuperSmash 

bruh not everything needs a monthly subscription 

The sad thing is that they’re are worst heavyweights on the roster then Mick Parkin and Mo Usman, Both are winning fights, so logically the people they are beating are worst, 

They be about 15 worst heavyweight. It’s a very bum division 

The new design is nice. You now have the GOATs approval 👍👍👍

 Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas

Predicted Winner: Amanda Ribas

Method: Decision

Confidence: 60%

Matchup Breakdown: Ribas' grappling advantage and striking volume could play a significant role, especially if she manages to bring Namajunas to the ground. Ribas will likely use her judo background to control the clinch and seek takedowns, while Namajunas will need to leverage her striking and footwork to maintain distance.



Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa

Predicted Winner: Karl Williams

Method: Decision

Confidence: 65%

Matchup Breakdown: Williams' reach and superior takedown defense could neutralize Tafa's power striking. Expect Williams to use his jab and reach to keep Tafa at bay, capitalizing on any takedown attempts to score points or control the fight on the ground.

 

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson

Predicted Winner: Edmen Shahbazyan

Method: KO/TKO

Round of Stoppage: Round 2

Confidence: 55%

Matchup Breakdown: Shahbazyan's precision striking and power could find openings in Dobson's defense, especially if Shahbazyan can maintain distance and use his striking to set up combinations. Dobson will need to close the distance safely and use his grappling to pressure Shahbazyan.



Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman

Predicted Winner: Payton Talbott

Method: KO/TKO

Round of Stoppage: Round 3

Confidence: 70%

Matchup Breakdown: Talbott's striking volume and accuracy provide him an edge, likely leading him to control the stand-up exchanges. Saaiman might look to use his grappling to slow down Talbott, but Talbott's takedown defense and ability to fight off his back could see him returning to his feet quickly to resume striking.

 

Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal

Predicted Winner: Billy Quarantillo

Method: Decision

Confidence: 60%

Matchup Breakdown: Quarantillo's experience and slightly better striking differential suggest he could outwork Zalal in exchanges. Zalal's agility and ability to switch stances could create problems, but Quarantillo's pressure and volume might overwhelm Zalal over time.



Fernando Padilla vs. Luis Pajuelo

Predicted Winner: Luis Pajuelo

Method: KO/TKO

Round of Stoppage: Round 1

Confidence: 65%

Matchup Breakdown: Pajuelo's aggressive striking and ability to maintain a high pace could be key. Padilla might attempt to use his grappling to counter Pajuelo's striking, but Pajuelo's takedown defense could keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage.



Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden

Predicted Winner: Kurt Holobaugh

Method: Decision

Confidence: 60%

Matchup Breakdown: Holobaugh's balanced approach in striking and grappling offers him various paths to victory. Ogden might look to exploit any openings in Holobaugh's defense with his grappling, but Holobaugh's experience and ability to adapt could see him controlling the pace and location of the fight.



Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa

Predicted Winner: Julian Erosa

Method: Decision

Confidence: 55%

Matchup Breakdown: Erosa's reach and volume striking could allow him to dictate the fight's pace, using his range to land strikes while avoiding Ramos's counter attempts. Ramos will need to find a way inside Erosa's reach to utilize his grappling and potentially bring the fight to the ground.



Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson

Predicted Winner: Miles Johns

Method: Decision

Confidence: 60%

Matchup Breakdown: Johns's defensive skills and tactical striking approach might help him counter Gibson's aggressive style. Gibson, known for his forward pressure, will need to find a way past Johns's defense without exposing himself to counter strikes.



Jarno Errens vs. Steven Nguyen

Predicted Winner: Steven Nguyen

Method: TKO/KO

Round of Stoppage: Round 2

Confidence: 70%

Matchup Breakdown: Nguyen's high striking output and power could overwhelm Errens, especially if Nguyen maintains pressure and avoids getting tied up in grappling exchanges where Errens might have an advantage due to his submission skills.



Montserrat Rendon vs. Dariya Zheleznyakova

Predicted Winner: Montserrat Rendon

Method: Decision

Confidence: 65%

Matchup Breakdown: Rendon's grappling could be the deciding factor, as her ability to control opponents on the ground and score points through takedowns might offset Zheleznyakova's striking power. Zheleznyakova will need to keep the fight standing and use her reach to land significant strikes. Rendon's grappling and strategic approach are likely to earn her a decision victory.



Igor Severino vs. Andre Lima

Predicted Winner: Igor Severino

Method: TKO/KO

Round of Stoppage: Round 2

Confidence: 70%

Matchup Breakdown: Severino's relentless pace and versatility in both striking and grappling could prove too much for Lima. Lima's striking power is a threat, but Severino's ability to blend his attacks and potentially bring the fight to the ground could see him finding the finish.



Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin 

Predicted Winner: Mick Parkin 

Method: TKO/KO 

Round of Stoppage: Round 3 

Confidence: 75% 

Matchup Breakdown: Parkin's superior technical striking and grappling intelligence suggest he could control the fight whether standing or on the ground. Usman's power poses a constant threat, but Parkin's ability to dictate the fight's pace and location might lead to a late stoppage as Usman tires or gets caught during an exchange. 

* Edited at 03.19.2024, 10:35 PM ET *

@MarioSuperSmash 

unfortunately we have no access rights to any of that footage!!

Usman vs. Parkin
Mohammed Usman, DEC
A card full of decisions expect a dodgy

Rendon vs. Zheleznyakova
Darya Zheleznyakova, TKO, R2
Rendon is awful with her hands. Although she could power through and score enough takedowns to snag this win, I can't see her reliably entering clinch range without getting lit up by Darya on the feet.