Jones vs. Evans

This is the official discussion thread for Jones vs. Evans. Let's see what you've got.

I see Rashad being stopped by Jon Jones and his brutal GnP. One of the more hyped fights of this era and a true grudge match. Jon is most likely going to be the stronger fighter he is going to have the longer reach and is going to be the more-well rounded striker. Rashad I don't think will be able to hurt Jon with his striking because Jon fights at such a range that it'll be hard for Rashad to get power from that distance. Jon will also be more well-rounded in his submissions and overall will be a new fighter from the one that Rashad saw last year.

Very interesting live breakdown of Jon Jones by Rashad Evans, maybe 78% of us are underestimating exactly how valuable it is to train with a guy for years.

Jones with the third round TKO.

How is Rashad going to do what Rua, Rampage, and Lyoto couldn't? He didn't come close to finishing Rampage, as Jones did, and he got KTFO by the same guy Jones slept. Sorry, Rashad, someone will have to tell you what happened because you won't remeber when you wake up.

@Anik: Let's not forget that Jones ALSO trained with Rashad, it works both ways. Jones KNOWS that they trained together so for the last year I am SURE he has been going over specific things to cover the gaps and even has new moves Rashad is not famiar with. Any way you cut it Jones has an 84" reach, there isn't much to do about that. If some thought Jones let Lyoto fall unapologetically after putting him out what do you think he's gonna do when Rashad is crashing toward the canvas?!

* Edited at 04.15.2012, 2:21 PM ET *

I agree with @Judo. Everyone is making too big of a deal of "Oh Rashad knows him blah blah blah." Well guess what Jones knows him to, it's not a one-sided advantage. And that was when Jones was just starting, he's improved drastically, Rashad isn't changing anymore.

@Danno: I suspectt that the difference in trainiing partners has Rashad changing as well, and to be honest he probably did as little as possible to win against Davis so as to allow Jones to get complacent. I think we will see a MUCH improved Evans next Saturday. He was a psych major, let's not forget.

Still, Jones has been taking out contenders and chaps for a year (four) while Evans was injured and then fighting Davis and Tito. (Technically a prospect and former champion, but the advantage is Jones' with regard to cage training freshness and caiber of opponents).

I would adjust my round pick too. If Rampage was able to make it to round four with a poor stategy why would you think Rashad would fair worse when he broke that fight down so well. Rashad isn't stupid, he won't get ended in the second.

* Edited at 04.15.2012, 2:23 PM ET *

Bones via whatever he wants

Jones, more than anything, doesn't make mistakes. He is always doing the right thing. It's not that he is miles ahead in his striking or grappling, he is just a smart fighter inside the octagon. 

Rashad though, he is an experienced fighter, and also a smart fighter and great game planer. He's even had to deal with the larger HW's back on TUF, so he knows a bit how to handle guys with longer reach. 

Rashad will have to grind it out for a couple of rounds and really push Jones, cause so far no one has really done so. Everyone so far has mostly tried trading shots with him instead of trying to wear him out. And no one has put him on his back. That's what he needs to do I don't see Jones one punching Rashad, though he does throw great combos. Rashad has a slim chance here to catch him coming in. But he won't beat him all on the feet.  

i'm beyond excited for this fight. i might change my pick to rashad by decision. i could see rashad possibly making this fight a bit boring by just grinding out a decision and tryin to play it safe to get the W. even if he does that i'd be happy to see someone finally beat bones

watching the primetime episodes and seeing Jones is a different way has made me care a little bit more for jones, at first i believed he was very fake, but watching these episodes im starting to believe that he is really believing everything he says and is honest about it. If he really is sincere about everything he says he goes up in my book a little bit, he is still wayyyyy to corny for my liking, talking about conviction and stuff like that. Im still a great hater of Jones but he has went up a little bit in my book, 
back to the fight though,
Im really surprised at how many people are thinking Jones is going to run through Rashad, i really dont think so, Rashad has this fight personal in his mind and he is absolutely great when the fight is personal. I think Rashad can really ground and pound Jones for 5 rounds with a possible finish, I actually think both fighters will be on their back at some point in this fight, i just think Rashad will get more takedowns and edge out a decision or possible late fight finish.
 Definitely the toughest fight either person has ever had. 
War Rashad

Rashad makes this a true fight, but Jones suffocates evans with relentless striking

I think its fair to call this fight in favor of Jones... (to me theres no question) but is it worth maybe putting some money down on evans?  If he has been working on his wrestling does he have a chance to maybe win by decision? Potentially even by sub?

I'll be shocked if Evans wins (like most people), but I wouldn't be shocked if Evans gives Jones a fight. Jones is a very well-rounded fighter. Evans compared to Jones' title opponents has the best style to match up with Jones because he's more well-rounded than any of them.

I think Evans is slightly more skilled or at least even at striking/footwork/etc, but that significant reach advantage alone has to give the edge to Jones for striking.

Evans' best chance for victory is turning it into a wrestling/grappling match. The critical question is whether or not Evans can take Jones down to the ground because we've never seen Jones get taken down and fight on his back. I mean Rashad seems to be the best wrestler Jones has ever faced in the UFC and if Rashad is able to be in a dominant wrestling position, then things might get interesting.

Jones by ko 

evans by brutal ground and pound.

This match up stacks up like most over hyped fights.  I believe we will be in store for grapple fest 2012.  You may not like Rashad but he is a thinking man's fighter.  Look for him to initiate the clinch game very quickly.  His stand up is much improved but I have to imagine his BJJ has come along being with the Blackzillians:

Keys to victory : 

Rashad: Closing the distance,  Top Control.  Rashad has improved his stand up but not enough to compensate for the reach advantage of Jones.   He needs to initiate the clinch, push Jones against the cage and secure the high crotch as the single and double will be negated by Jones lankiness and much improved take down defense.   Rashad also needs to watch for the choke up against the cage i.e Machida,  Jones has sharpened his submissions skills 10 fold since they trained together.   I.E. Rashad needs to Lay n Pray, Wall n Stall his way to victory. 

Jones: He needs to take a lesson from the big Swede here and stay on the outside and pick his shots.  Machida really exposed a small flaw in Rashad's game.  Rashad's head movement is excellent until he his pressed against the cage.  Once pressed against the cage his instincts kick in and starts looking for the shot.  This small defect exposed his chin just enough for Machida to tag.  Rashad is a dominant elite level wrestler who will win the game of grappling position.  Simply put stick and move your way to victory.  In addition John will have to avoid the flashy spin attacks against Rashad,  stay straight and true and look for knees in the clinch.  Rashad changes levels far to well to attempt spinning round house / back elbow combinations.

Prediction : 
5 rounds of waiting for John to explode, which never happens.  Rashad by a razor thin decision 48-47.

* Edited at 04.16.2012, 11:29 AM ET *

Jones by KO due to knees. The champ is going to show Rashad a little something new, and its going to look a bit like Penn VS Sherk.

Evans will want to close the distance quickly and not stay in Jones' optimal reach. In order to close that distance he is going to have to move quickly in one direction, giving Jones the opportunity to cut angles and strike. When Rashad gets frustrated that he can't impose his will as easily as he thought he will go for TDs and catch a knee to the chin and then get finished with strikes.

This is my dream scenario, hopefully it comes true. Evans has ill will toward Jones (Much the way Faber does against Cruz) and its not good for him mentally. Holding on to all that negativity will prove to be part of his downfall. As a psych major he should know better.

 

Rashad has fought HW's with big reach before...just saying