UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Last time Aoriqileng fought, people said he was gonna lose to Johnny Munoz Jr. Now, those same people are siding with him to beat a way better fighter in Marcos.

this card should start at noon, no way we should use our afternoon with a card like this. 

Vieira vs. Petrosyan
Armen Petrosyan, DEC
trains with russian all day, rodolpho a sub specialist

Giles vs. Prates
Trevin Giles, DEC
way more ufc experience

@AyyLmaonnaise 

because based on tape Pauga is not dangerous at all. No real power. And has shown chin issue to one of the worse strikers in UFC.  The Russian dude is simply more dangerous. It’s that simple. Pauga not finishing him or anybody.

Part of me thinks Hermansson might be able to pull off the upset here. Hermansson has a massive experience advantage and can go five rounds at a high pace. When he can get it going on the feet, he has good lateral movement and kicks. Pyfer hits hard but will sometimes just swing wild hooks out of range. His cardio is unproven and he doesn't check leg kicks AT ALL.  All of his previous opponents have kinda just been stationary targets for him and I don't think that will be the case here.
The problem is Hermansson has crumpled against big hitters in the past. He also seems to generally lose to guys more athletic than him. Hermansson also has little to no finishing power on the feet. I'd say I expect Pyfer to just walk him down with no respect, but weirdly enough he seems to kinda bite hard on feints like against GM3 so idk.
I expect Pyfer to look way stronger than there in him though - I wouldn't count on either guy being able to easily secure takedowns, and I think that is going to affect Hermansson's game more than it will affect Pyfer's. Pyfer also has a really good jab and cross. If he can back Hermansson to the fence I 100% expect him to find the chin and put him out. But if he can't it might end up being a long night for him. My biggest concern for him is his really poor leg kick defense.

I fully expect Jack to win the first round,its up to Joe to figure him out and not gas in the process.

Clark vs. Prachnio
Marcin Prachnio, TKO, R2
I do not trust Devin Clark's chin

Marcos vs. Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng, DEC
I've never seen Daniel Marcos fight so I can't offer a strong opinion on this one

In Australia, The Apex Card usually start at 6 or 7 am on a Sunday morning and end at midday, it pretty peak to start the day off with face punching whilst also having the Afternoon to do other stuff. It my favourite thing about Apex card

Lookboonmee vs. Brasil
Loma Lookboonmee, DEC
Loma is just levels better and should be able to outclass Brasil to a 30-27 UD

Clark vs. Prachnio
Devin Clark, DEC
Petrino showed us in Prachnio's last fight that if you can get him on his back he just accepts it and shows no urgency to reverse or get back up. Clark uses his wrestling to grind out a decision.

* Edited at 02.08.2024, 7:47 AM ET *

@pasha well for one he doesn’t need to finish guskov. Guskov’s cardio is untested so all pauga needs to do is survive the opening few minutes and he can grind him out with his clinch style 

Also I don’t think his power is as bad as you say, watch his last fight. He did lose but he rocked modestas badly 2-3 times in that fight. I think he can definitely catch guskov; he doesn’t have any head movmement and a suspect chin. It doesn’t matter how much power you have, if you don’t move your head & take punches on the chin you are going to get ko’ed 


And the Usman ko is bad I agree but you’re just looking at it at face value. It was at heavyweight which is not his natural class (for obvious reasons) and he was pretty clearly dog walking Usman up until the ko; I don’t even think Usman landed more than 10 strikes. There’s a reason pauga doesn’t fight at 265 

* Edited at 02.08.2024, 7:56 AM ET *

 Joe Pyfer vs. Jack Hermansson: Pyfer's grappling and recent form give him an edge in a matchup against Hermansson's striking and experience. The prediction leans towards Pyfer exploiting his ground game to secure a submission victory, considering Hermansson's recent struggles.

Winner: Joe Pyfer

Method: Submission

Round: 2

Confidence: 65%



Andre Fili vs. Dan Ige: Fili's height and reach advantages, combined with a slightly more aggressive grappling strategy, sets him up for success against Ige. The decision win for Fili is predicted based on his ability to control the distance and potentially outgrapple Ige.

Winner: Andre Fili

Method: Decision

Confidence: 60%



Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor Potieria: Bryczek's pronounced KO power and Potieria's defensive vulnerabilities suggest Bryczek could find success striking, leading to a knockout victory. The matchup favors Bryczek's ability to close the distance and land powerful shots.

Winner: Robert Bryczek

Method: KO/TKO

Round: 1

Confidence: 70%



Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brad Tavares: Rodrigues's aggressive striking and grappling blend gives him the tools to secure a late stoppage over Tavares. The fight is expected to showcase Rodrigues's ability to overwhelm Tavares with volume and power.

Winner: Gregory Rodrigues

Method: TKO/KO

Round: 3

Confidence: 65%



Michael Johnson vs. Darrius Flowers:Johnson's experience and striking defense make him a durable competitor likely to outpoint Flowers for a decision win. Flowers's aggressive style may not be enough to overcome Johnson's strategic fighting approach.

Winner: Michael Johnson

Method: Decision

Confidence: 55%



Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan: Vieira's superior grappling and submission skills are likely to dominate Petrosyan, who lacks defensive wrestling capabilities. A submission victory for Vieira is anticipated once the fight hits the ground.

Winner: Rodolfo Vieira

Method: Submission

Round: 2

Confidence: 75%



Trevin Giles vs. Carlos Prates: Giles's well-rounded skill set, combining striking with effective grappling, positions him to outwork Prates for a decision win. Prates's striking advantage is mitigated by Giles's strategic fight IQ.

Winner: Trevin Giles

Method: Decision

Confidence: 60%



Timothy Cuamba vs. Bolaji Oki: Oki's high striking output and efficiency are expected to overwhelm Cuamba, leading to an early TKO/KO victory. Cuamba's identical experience may not suffice against Oki's aggressive striking approach.

Winner: Bolaji Oki

Method: TKO/KO

Round: 1

Confidence: 70%



Loma Lookboonmee vs. Bruna Brasil: Lookboonmee's striking volume and takedown abilities should allow her to control the fight against Brasil, leading to a decision win. Brasil's reach advantage is unlikely to deter Lookboonmee's aggressive strategy.

Winner: Loma Lookboonmee

Method: Decision

Confidence: 65%



Marcin Prachnio vs. Devin Clark: Prachnio's striking volume and finishing ability set the stage for a TKO/KO win over Clark. Despite Clark's grappling, Prachnio's stand-up game is expected to prevail.

Winner: Marcin Prachnio

Method: TKO/KO

Round: 2

Confidence: 60%



Jeremiah Wells vs. Fernie Garcia: Wells's grappling prowess and submission threat are predicted to be too much for Garcia, with a submission win likely once Wells closes the distance and brings the fight to the ground.

Winner: Jeremiah Wells

Method: Submission

Round: 2

Confidence: 68%



Zac Pauga vs. Bogdan Guskov: Pauga's striking defense and ability to outpoint opponents are key factors in predicting a decision win against Guskov. Guskov's power poses a threat, but Pauga's strategic approach should prevail.

Winner: Zac Pauga

Method: Decision

Confidence: 55%



Hyder Amil vs. Fernie Garcia: Amil's efficient striking and solid takedown defense position him to control the fight, potentially securing a submission victory over Garcia. Garcia's negative strike differential is seen as a critical vulnerability.

Winner: Hyder Amil

Method: Submission

Round: 2

Confidence: 70%



Daniel Marcos vs. Aoriqileng: Marcos's undefeated record and striking efficiency suggest he can outmaneuver Aoriqileng for a decision win. Marcos's ability to manage distance and defend against takedowns will likely enable him to maintain control. 

Winner: Daniel Marcos 

Method: Decision 

Confidence: 65% 

* Edited at 02.08.2024, 9:57 AM ET *

just noticed cuamba had fight 6 days ago n having one on this card in 2

@AyyLmaonnaise 

I guess I’ll have to disagree with you here. I can’t see this fight going to a Dec whatsoever. I think the Russian dude is more dangerous, more powerful, looks better at his weight class. And much more likely to finish here than the other way around. I don’t see much danger in his opponent whatsoever. I think the line movement going from +125 to +100 is correct and accurate. Lines being this close makes me think this is correct. I just don’t see UFC trying to feed him a fighter again that’s going to finish him. I think they gave him a fight he can win. His opponent only probably wins by a Dec here. Definitely don’t see this going to a Dec. and as I said. He hasn’t shown he’s dangerous in ufc really at all. 

@AyyLmaonnaise 

also, last thing I wanted to mention. The lines indicate “under 2.5” don’t see how that favors Pauga here. Since he’s just shown he’s just a decision machine. 
This kinda almost reminds me of, Jamal Pogue vs T****s Petersen line. Everyone was taking Petersen by a finish. But, what was odd, based on prop bets, over 2.5 was -130. Meaning the sportsbook was favoring the fight to go most likely to a Dec. Dec, definitely did not favor Petersen , I think we can agree on that. It was favoring Pogues. And that’s what I read. I’ve been wrong before. But, always nice to have a chat with you. I can be completely incorrect. This is the pattern I’ve noticed in UFC. Another pattern I’ve also notice, new comers that come to UFC they lose their first fight, odd wise they are much much more likely to win their 2nd fight. Perhaps that’s because UFC is trying to build them up slower, or give them a much easier fight they can win. Bogdan did not look too terrible first min or so to be honest. But, I think UFC threw him to a wolf too quick, and he was on an extremely short notice. So I gotta forgive him here. 

@MMAi 

love Trevin Giles pick. The polish dude makes me nervous. He has a lot of 1 round finishes, but they are literally against all cans. I think 50/50 for me. Ihor has history of beating polish guys oddly enough lol

@pasha yeah I don’t really think it’s likely to finish, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if pauga can pull it off. I have no money on the fight ending so I will just pick it on here 

I do agree with your logic about the ufc trying to give someone they like a win, but in this case I’m not so sure if it’s true. For me personally, I don’t really get the appeal of guskov. This is obviously his chance to prove he belongs in the ufc but from what I’ve seen of his fights I’m not so sure he is. Given that this is an apex card, I think they’re just pitting him against someone on the lower end to see if he actually belongs. If he wins then they probably get to cut pauga and if he loses he will face a dwcs guy or some new signing most likely 

Then again he is an Ali abdelaziz client lol

* Edited at 02.08.2024, 4:27 PM ET *

@AyyLmaonnaise 

Pouga by TKO +270
Pauga by Dec +350 
Bogdan by KO +135. 

Under 1.5 -125

Idk… Vegas disagrees with you. 

@AyyLmaonnaise 

true stuff. Good read brotha. Lol

My only worry for Pauga is his chin. Guskov is just not a UFC level guy, but at LHW, power/aggression can be rewarded.

Pauga is pretty slick on the feet to his credit, though.

* Edited at 02.08.2024, 5:59 PM ET *

@AyyLmaonnaise 

@pashaboyer Guskov being so one dimensional is what scares me away from him. If I had confidence he could defend a takedown or stay off of the fence he'd be a lock for me. His striking is much more dangerous and Pauga was getting touched on the chin a lot by Bukauskas in his last fight. If Guskov touches his chin it's lights out. Pauga may not be as talented, but he's a smart fighter that's going to come in with a gameplan. I watch that fight against Jordan Wright and I see him implementing the same gameplan against Guskov. If Pauga decides to make it ugly and wear on him for 15 minutes there's not a damn thing Guskov is going to be able to about it unless he clips him at some point.