UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I’m really confident in loopy. Pretty surprised by the odds on here

Procházka vs. Pereira
Alex Pereira, TKO, R3
surely this doesnt go to decision, but almeida vs lewis proved once again how weird mma is sometimes. i favor Alex here. Ive heard some weird stuff about Jiris shoulder injury recently. its supposed to be real bad. shoulders are rough to come back from in mma. more importantly, i was just unimpressed by Jiri vs a 42yo Glover. he pulled it off late but the fight was too close for my liking. this fight comes a year and a half after Glover. Alex has had 4 fights in that time. he looked ok against Jan after moving up in weight. looks like his size suits the weight. dont think Jiri is shooting for takedowns like Jan did. i think it will take a couple rounds for Alex to get the timing down. Jiri as we know has a very awkward style. i think eventually Jiri gets caught and Poatan makes more history.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R3
Pavlovich is a hammer sure. He hasnt seen a second round since 2017 though. That leaves me with a ton of questions about conditioning. Tom however, has probably the highest fight IQ at heavyweight apart from Jon. I hate that this is short notice, but im still gonna go with Tom. I think he outsmarts Sergei. Hes got the movement for it. Avoid the chaos and the power in the first round and you can work from there imo. We've seen this before with Francis vs Stipe. I think in the second or third round, when Sergei has lost some of the pop, Tom can find a way for a takedown and use ground and pound to finish the fight. Theres just too many questions for me about Sergei if he doesnt get the finish in the first. I dont see Sergei getting subbed. But again, in the later rounds, anything is possible cause we just haven't seen him there.

Madsen vs Gordon 
Gordon DEC 

I'm pretty surprised to see so many people on Madsen here. Madsen has never impressed me all that much. He was an olympic wrestler but his wrestling is not all that crazy for mma. For starters, he is a Greco-Roman wrestler which is not a very optimal style for mma. Despite these accolades, Madsen does not come in with wrestling heavy gameplans. For his mma career, Madsen is predominantly a striker; while he will use his wrestling occasionally he prefers to strike, only using it when he feels its necessary. Madsen has pretty good footwork but he stands very square and doesn’t move his head well; he just looks awkward moving around in the cage and his stance leaves him very open to be hit. Madsen’s striking is just average to me; he is not a bad striker but he’s also not amazing, his jab is solid & being a wrestler of course his overhand right is great. Madsen also throws with power, which has allowed him to win on the feet despite getting outstruck in rounds. He doesn’t really have knockout power, he just throws hard enough to get a reaction. Another thing to note about madsen is that hes almost 40, on a long layoff, coming off of his first loss, and hes training back in denmark instead of fight ready. I don’t doubt that he's still dedicated to the game but he’s lost his momentum and being so old his career is nearing the end. Jared Gordon is also nearing the end of his career; his record looks really bad on paper but I think he is super underrated. Gordon is a veteran & much like castaneda he is a jack of all trades. Gordon’s style is much different but he is just really solid everywhere. Gordon is a volume machine on the feet; he doesn’t do a ton of damage but he is always throwing and picking you apart with his jab and hooks. He throws a lot of leg kicks as well. I was very impressed with how easily he was making reads on bobby’s head movement before getting headbutted too. Gordon’s wrestling is also solid and he is a Danaher black belt so he knows how to grapple pretty well. What was really useful in taping this fight was both of these guy’s fights with Dawson. Madsen was able to defend the initial takedowns but once dawson got him down he was spending the whole round there. When gordon fought dawson he was getting taken down but was never accepting position & was using his grappling to prevent dawson from taking his back. He was also countering the wrestling well and making it ugly for dawson on the feet. This shows a big difference between Greco & MMA wrestling; Madsen may have his accolades but he doesn’t know bjj that well; when Dawson got him down the round was over. Now, Gordon likely isn’t going to wrestle him but it shows that Madsen is likely not going to have much success in holding him down. Since madsen likes to strike, this will probably be a striking match. I just have to favor gordon in that case. His striking is so much cleaner and he is just more comfortable on the feet. I know he isn’t doing so great on paper but I think he is much better than Madsen & will win a pretty decisive decision. 

Kang vs Castaneda 
Castaneda DEC 


This is lowkey a really fun fight. Both of these guys are well rounded & don’t shy away from using their entire skillsets. Castaneda is a jack of all trades. Hes not incredible anywhere but has skills in every area. Castaneda’s best attribute is his cardio; he never gets tired and pushes an insane pace in every fight. His striking is pretty good, he is a muay thai striker & throws tons of combinations mixing in leg kicks and knees. His best weapon is his head kick; castaneda is very good at setting it up & has been able to land it many times, nearly koing people on many occasions. He throws decently hard but he likes to wear on you with his volume until you break. Castaneda’s striking does look ugly at times because he gets hit a lot with his style. Castaneda wears punches very well but he will lose moments in fights looking to land a killshot. Kang on the other hand, is a very clean & technical striker. He has a very long frame for the division & uses his length very well, sticking primarily to his jab and low kick. Kang hits really hard but prefers to fight to a decision. He can dish out some punishment tho; when his jab gets going he will snipe you repeatedly. He’s scored a ton of knockdowns because he throws very hard but prefers to go straight to grappling once his opponent is rocked. Kang has very slick head movement when hes controlling the fight but when his opponents get aggressive he tends to get clipped a lot. Kang has very good recovery when he gets hurt & uses his veteran experience to pull off some survival trick but it does show a weakness to pressure. He also was struggling against brandon davis when davis was walking him down & making the fight ugly by getting him up against the fence and throwing. Because of this, I favor castaneda in this matchup. He gets hit a lot but he is going to force kang to be fighting off of his backfoot & forcing him to stay on his toes the whole fight. The grappling exchanges in this fight (should it end up there) are going to be crazy. I really like kang’s grappling; he doesn’t use it as much as he should but he is slick as hell on the ground. He doesn’t waste any movements but is very explosive and fluid on the ground; he transitions so smoothly and his submissions are sneaky. Hes so quick too. Castaneda comes from a wrestling background but he can grapple pretty well himself. In the santos fight he showed a very good scrambling ability, reacting to everything santos was doing & maintaining top control. I doubt castaneda will be able to keep kang down should he choose to wrestle; kang does not accept being on the bottom & is simply too crafty to stay down there. However, if castaneda mixes in grappling with his pressure on the feet, he could gas out kang by forcing him to use energy to avoid losing minutes on the bottom. I think this will be a pretty competitive fight but I think kang has a harder hill to climb here. He is going to have to fight off of his backfoot & not make mistakes the whole fight where castaneda just has to approach this fight the same way he does all his other ones. Castaneda is also not going to respect the striking of kang which is going to make a difference here



Van vs Borjas 
Van SUB RD 2

I was not impressed with borjas on dwcs. I know i overrated his opponent but he was the better fighter, just lost due to terrible gameplanning; gassing himself out trying too hard for the takedown. Borjas was able to survive on the ground but got taken down relatively easily & was dominated on the ground at moments; if there were 30 more seconds in round 1 he would’ve been finished. What I did like from borjas was his cardio. Despite being dominated round 1 he still managed to push a high pace & did not slow down. While I do like parts of his striking, overall i don’t think hes very high level. He is a boxer and has really clean body shots and a jab, while throwing everything with full power. The problem is that he winds up on everything, so you can not only see it coming, but he leaves himself open in the process. Even dias was landing off of Borjas’s combinations with ease. I think Van is levels above him. I do think Van still has a lot of things to work on but he is incredibly talented. I was most impressed with how quickly he leveled up; I had always liked what I’d see from his fury fights but he had a lot of bad tendencies like really bad wrestling, leaving his chin out at times, dropping for calf slicers, etc. Then he came in against a ufc vet and looked like he’d been in the ufc for years. His wrestling looked very improved & he just broke zhalgas by never slowing down & melting him with boxing combos and leg kicks, even coming close to a finish in round 2. I think this fight will be somewhat close on the feet. Not because Borjas is an amazing striker but because he thrives in brawls & van is not afraid to be hit. However, Van is much more technical. I already touched on how many openings borjas leaves when he strikes & how he winds up on every shot. Van is much more concise with his shots. He has a super clean jab & throws all of his punches very tight. His output is insane too; he never seems to slow down and is always throwing heat. Van’s kicks are also pretty good. He has very strong legs & generates a lot of power with his kicks. He attacks all parts of the body with his kicks but his best move is definitely the head kick. Both these guys are going to be slugging it out but im not sure we see a knockout. Van has shown a great chin and good defense where borjas doesn’t seem phased at all when being punched. For once, Van is going to have a big grappling advantage. I highly doubt he wrestles, but it's there if he wants to; Borjas doesn’t know how to grapple at all & he was getting taken down after throwing shots so easily. I think if Van does hurt borjas on the feet, he will go for a club n sub. I could totally see a ko but i feel confident that both guys chins will hold up. Either way van is going to win

Buzujka vs Emmers 
Emmers DEC 

I really don’t get the matchmaking on this one, Buzukja grinded his way to the ufc but sadly I just don’t think hes ufc level. He is a gym rat but his overall skills are just not that impressive. Some good qualities about him are that he always stays in fight shape, has good conditioning, solid tdd, solid striking, but that's it. He has solid kickboxing skills; throwing a lot of body kicks and punches. His finishing instincts are god awful. On the rare occasion he hurts his opponents, buzujka prefers to go to the ground. He doesn’t really do much on top but can win moments. There wasn’t a whole lot to take from his debut; in his defense, woodson is a veyr hard fight to take on 4 days notice, but regardless dennis didn’t show much of anything other than always being in good shape and durability. He looked very pedestrian against woodson; he landed a few shots but mostly got outclassed in every aspect on mma. Woodson outboxed him for the majority of the fight and even out grappled him. I honestly rate emmers as a harder fight than woodson. His record doesn’t look great but he is really skilled. I don’t think emmers has major holes anywhere, his big flaw is his fight iq. Even in fights he’s winning he will do something stupid. The best example was nearly finishing sabatini & trying to sub him, resulting in getting his knee destroyed. Despite his tendency to do dumb things, Buzujka has no finishing ability so I doubt he would be able to capitalize on a mistake like that. Emmers is a much better striker; he is very lanky & knows how to fight behind that length. Emmers has great combinations, always mixing it up to different parts of the body. He has really good footwork too so it's hard to track him. Emmers is a really solid wrestler as well. He doesn’t use it offensively that much but he is really good when he wants to; even though he was robbed against jenkins, he was able to clearly win the last round in a very close fight with his wrestling. Emmers does have a tendency to make fights closer than they should be, but I truly think he is a level above buzujka.

* Edited at 11.05.2023, 4:06 PM ET *

Lopes vs Sabatini 
Sabatini DEC 

I know this is again going to be the unpopular pick, Lopes has a massive hype train right now and the people love him. I love him too but I can’t ignore that this is a terrible matchup for him. I think Lopes guard is among the best in mma currently, he is just so good from the bottom & is able to find submissions from everywhere. However, I think people are acting like he is an elite talent just because he survived movsar. It was awesome watching him have the balls to do that movsar but I can’t ignore the fact that he got his ass kicked for the rest of the fight. It’s no surprise that wrestling will win over someone playing guard 90% of the time, but lopes has clearly lost twice now at the ufc level (Brito on dwcs and movsar) due to wrestling. Its much easier said than done, because he will attack subs no matter what but if you have good top control and good bjj, then it is pretty easy to just hold him down and win off of control. Sabatini is a very high level grappler, imo one of the best at 145. He is a renzo gracie black belt & has that amazing cage wreslting system all of the people out of there use. I think this style is especially going to be bad for lopes, because he can’t get off any of his subs when his back is to the wall. We saw Brito really shut his game down at the end of the second & for most of the first by getting takedowns and pushing lopes to the wall. Even if Sabatini gets on top out in the open, he has incredible defense paired with great top control. I think he will see everything coming & adjust accordingly. His transitions are on another level. Sabatini will throw a lot of gnp too, I noticed against movsar that Lopes will take an ass whooping on the ground jsut to get a submission off, so sabatini could do a lot of damage on top. The only time sabatini has been “subbed” was when he was in a mir lock & stood up, causing his arm to snap. Outside of diego breaking something, I don’t see him being able to tap out sabatini. Of course, anything is possible but I really don’t see someone with sabatini’s prowess losing on the ground. Lopes’s best chance is on the feet; sabatini is very uncomfortable on the feet & is pretty chinny. Lopes striking is not great but the dude has crazy power for the weight class. You can tell he is still a novice in the striking, he gets confused when his opponents pressure him on the feet, he has no head movement, and he can be low output at times. However, he should have a big advantage here as sabatini doesn’t have much striking to speak of. If im Lopes, im gonna go in there reckless trying to take his head off. He shouldn’t have to worry about the td since hes comfortable on his back & if he shows no respect sabatini is going to get uncomfortable; we saw how jackson was able to sleep him by making the fight ugly. However, I think sabatini is going to have easy takedown success & will win this fight pretty cleanly. I love Lopes’s active guard & I love how he is willing to take risks but on the other hand I think that risk taking against someone so skilled in the grappling department is going to end badly. Sabatini’s top control is incredible & I can’t unsee Lopes just fighting off of his back for 15 minutes. Of course, he could definitely get a finish but I really don’t see a submission happening. I’m hoping we get some exciting scrambles but again, I fear this could end up being a boring wrestling match due to lopes playing off of his back. 



Godinez vs Ricci  Godinez DEC
I’m not usually invested in wmma fights but this is a pretty good one. Both girls are on winstreaks & will likely get a big push with a win. While I do really like this fight, I am shocked to see so many people on ricci. I get shes hot & on a solid winstreak but me personally, im not all that impressed with her. She is a great athlete & I would say she has a well rounded skillset but none of her performances have really blown me away. For starters, she has never been tested. She got thrown to the wolves in her debut and has gotten easy matchups ever since. Oliviera is no longer in the ufc & is just plan awful. Polyana Viana is really bad, she is not a good striker & her tdd consists of pulling guillotine. Penne is ancient and has never been good, and while robertson is a good win, at the end of the day there is a reason she has 8 losses; she is skilled but very one dimensional. Besides Manon, Ricci has not fought anyone who is comfortable striking (or good at it) nor has she fought anyone who can wrestle (the highest tdd of anyone shes fought at 115 is 47%). Loopy can do both those things & does them very well. I will say, I really am impressed with ricci’s timing on her takedowns but, I don’t see her having much wrestling success here; not just because loopy is a great wrestler but because Ricci is too limited. She has a great blast double but besides her inside trip, she only has two waya to take you down. I don’t really think its close in the striking either; loopy may be a wrestler by trade, but she absolutely loves to stand & bang. Ricci has good stirking but she is much less comfortable. Her striking is pretty good, she mixes up her punches well & has good boxing technique. However, she has little to no impact with her punches. She also has a very bad habit of leaving her chin out in the air; I was shocked with how much she was doing it against robertson. Loopy may not have any knockouts but the girl hits like a truck. For her last two fights (and this one) she has moved to Lobo Gym & the improvements she has been showing are great. She has always had power but never knew how to strike, with the boxing coaching from Lobo, she has looked phenomenal; I was blown away with the speed & power she throws everything. I know I sound crazy saying loopy can win by ko but with how much ricci leaves her chin in the air, I think we will at least see a knockdown, if not more. Im taking a lot of risky picks on this card so why not another one; I know a ko in wmma is crazy but I really think we are live for one here. Even if there is no finish, I think loopy is better in every category besides bjj and athleticism, the latter is even between the two i’d say. I think her experience, wrestling defense, and striking are going to win her this fight


Sadykov vs Borschev 
Borschev KO RD 1

I’m really excited for this one. When this first got booked, I was expecting this to be a one-sided mismatch where Nazim was going to use his wrestling to win. After watching tape, it became clear that not only does Nazim hardly wrestle, his grappling isn’t even that good to begin with. All the times i remember him grappling in the ufc, he was never the one initiating it; his opponents would always grapple first & nazim would oblige. For example in his last fight, Nazim didn’t wrestle at all, he subbed mckinney because terrence shot a failed takedown & ended up in an awkward position. Before that, he was sitting in a body triangle for the whole round. I saw him fight the 0-0 (now 1-3) JC De Leon & actually lose a round to this guy because he had no idea how to separate in the clinch; he even let the guy drop him. There’s other things I don’t like too; nazim doesn’t move his head well at all, he has bad fight iq, and overall hes having bad moments against low level competition and getting away with it. None of his performances in the ufc have impressed me either. He looked very good at moments on dwcs but, he kept letting his opponent back into the fight & made it go longer than it should have. His debut, while fun and competitive, was a fight he was clearly going to lose before a premature doctor’s stoppage ended it. He then finished Mckinney but it really wasn’t that impressive; all he did was survive until mckinney quit & basically handed him the win. Nazim’s skillset is solid but he doesn’t know how to put everything together. Offensively, I think his striking is pretty clean; he possesses natural power & his punches are very sharp. However, he has a very bad tendency of not moving his head and oftentimes he will just throw a spin attack for no reason. He is an aggressive brawler but there’s not really a gameplan on the feet. His distance management is godawful; I don’t think ive ever seen someone get pushed to the clinch so easily. Not just saying this because its a trend, but the fact that a 0-0 guy can easily clinch & stall nazim says a lot. I mentioned it at the beginning but before taping this I really had this image in my head that Nazim was a great grappler. Watching the tape, every instance of grappling is initiated by his opponent. I’ve seen nazim get some takedowns but his wrestling really isn’t that good and hes never coming in with a wrestling gameplan. Even when he gets on top it’s not like the fight will be over; Nazim makes tons of transitional mistakes & gets reversed all the time. Hes had multiple times where hes raining gnp from the top and it takes minutes to call the fight off. The reason I focus so much on Nazim’s grappling is because that’s how you beat slava claus. Slava is a very high level kickboxer but he cannot grapple at all. For what it’s worth he tries his hardest to get up & has okay ground defense, but he simply can’t grapple at a high level. When you stand with him, Slava is ferocious. When he strikes, you can see the years of kickboxing experience; no wasted movements & everything he throws is a calculated strike. Slava has insane power and his best weapons are his check left hook and his liver shot. The reason everyone wrestles slava is because you simply can’t stand with him; he is a pretty tall 155er and throws absolute heat. I get why slava is the underdog but I really don’t think nazim is going to wrestle here. In a standup fight, its slava all day for me. His defense isn’t great so i suppose he could get clipped, but he takes shots well & with how little nazim moves his head, I think slava can easily ko him. If he does grapple, I honestly don’t see nazim having a ton of success; he can definitely get slava down but with all the mistakes he makes i don’t see him having a ton of success. Give me the dog here

Costa vs Erceg 
Costa KO RD 2

I was really looking forward to the original booking but this is a solid replacement. While costa doesn’t have the name value that schnell does, he fights basically the same way (bjj guy who fell in love with his hands). Erceg is the rightful favorite & I know people are really high on him after the dvorak fight but I think this is a much closer fight than schnell would’ve been. I really see costa as a better version of schnell. He was originally a grappler who has now fallen in love with striking; my issue with costa is his volume. His striking technique is very good, he loves to rip the body and has punishing leg kicks but he also has insane power for the weight class; he has one punch ko power at 125. However he doesn’t seem to trust himself at times, even on the regional scenes there were fights where he was just throwing nothing. He did a much better job against flick but, we also can’t put too much weight into that performance since flick is a punching bag who shells up instead of throwing back. The activity wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if costa actually used his grappling, but he doesn’t so there are many periods in his fights where he is just doing nothing. It’s funny he choses not to use his bjj because his grappling is fantastic. He transitions so well on the mat and has a very active guard (trains with diego lopes) but he will never use it unless his opponents force him too. This rarely happens because Costa’s defense is pretty great; its 92% on paper & he looks very difficult to take down; he is a massive flyweight, has a low center of gravity, and strong hips. These all combine to make him very hard to get to the ground. Costa’s defense isn’t bad but he does have a tendency to drop his guard; he can take a punch but you need good defense at the ufc level. It’s not like erceg’s defense is much better, in fact, he really doesn’t have much defense at all. Erceg is a very tall flyweight & relies on that height as his defense. He has yet to pay for it but that chin rarely ever moves. His stirking is pretty clean tho. He doesn’t have ko power like costa but he hits decently hard. He isn’t much of a boxer compared to costa but he has a nice jab and good timing on his punches. Hes very good at counter striking or finding an opening in his opponents defense. I really like erceg’s grappling; when he shoots, he goes very low and tries to get a body lock. He will do everything to try and take the back & he is very flexible; having taken the back from many wild positions. His bjj is great too, he will chain subs together very well, especially his guillotine. For as good as his scrambles are, Erceg’s control is not that great. He can win moments but also can be reversed pretty easily. I think the striking in this fight is close but I have to favor costa. I do worry about his volume, but costa is going to have a bigger impact with every shot & I hate how erceg doesn’t move his head. He can eat shots on the regional scene but he hasn’t fought someone like costa. Erceg has also shown hes susceptible to leg kicks.  On the inverse, costa’s defense is lacking at times & he can be dropped. He is also susceptible to head kicks (an erceg specialty) so he will have to be careful here. I think the grappling will cancel out but I do favor erceg there. His takedown entries are great but I do think costa will have the grappling chops to prevent erceg from cutting an angle or getting his back in a scramble. I think that specifically is going to give erceg a lot of issues because he is so used to being able to take the back off of his takedowns. This is a very close fight but I think costa is being underrated here; he has all the skills to beat erceg. 

* Edited at 11.05.2023, 4:09 PM ET *

Jiri vs Pereira 
Jiri KO RD 3

Thi fight is going to be madness; two titans with absurd knockout power who are going to stand in the middle until someone goes to sleep. Poatan is the rightful favorite but I see him having some issues with this matchup. HIs striking is among the best in the ufc; Poatan is very physically imposing and pairs this with insane natural power. So far, Poatan has gotten his opponents to respect him due to his stature & as a result they get drawn into his game. Poatan is a knockout artist but his demeanor is very calm when hes fighting. On the outside, he likes to keep you at bay with his jab & chip away at your legs with kicks. The effectiveness of both these strikes is amplified by his natural power; he has hurt multiple opponents with both. When he gets you up near the cage, he takes over with very clean boxing. His hooks, specifically his left hook are missiles & he is especially good at setting up that left hook. He also digs to the body frequently while also favoring knees in the clinch. There are a few things about poatan’s striking that I think are going to give him issues here. Firstly, his wide stance. Poatan’s kickboxing stance is pretty wide & he always has his hands low. Now, this his how his style has always been & it works for him but you always have to keep your guard up against Jiri. Even if you can read his shots, his power can change the fight instantly. Jiri’s power was something I really noticed when rewatching his fights; obviously I know he hits hard, the man has 25 ko’s for a reason but, everytime he lands a clean punch on his opponents they get an “oh ****” look on their faces & immediately begin playing the defensive. Another thing Jiri does that will give Poatan issues is his ability to create chaos; Jiri brings a level of unpredictability to each fight that you can’t prepare for. Nothing he does is orthodox and he is always striking from weird angles. He also is not afraid of anyone & will get right in their faces and make the fight a war. Poatan can fight when the fight gets ugly, but he is not at his best. His wide style leaves him open to be hit, as we’ve seen in his other fights. For example, Blindado was making rounds very close by pressuring (before getting dropped) and Jan was having success when he walked forward & threw, but he was too tired to consistently press the issue. Jiri on the other hand, is not afraid to march forward for 5 rounds and bringing you to hell with him. While poatan will be able to land on Jiri, I favor Jiri in this scenario due to cardio and speed. Another thing people haven’t been talking about is the speed advantage Jiri has. Jiri moves around pretty quick for a lhw & he is always giving you different looks with his feints, stance switches, and all around general weirdness. Watching his tape back, Poatan is pretty slow. He can obviously move quick when he wants to but the guy is not generally a fast human. His fight style consists of very little movements; he doesn’t waste any energy or movements when he wants to do something. As a result, he is going to be uncomfortable haviung to be constantly on his toes. Being able to keep throwing while avoiding being hit also requires good cardio. Poatan’s cardio is pretty good, and its considerably better at 205 but he has slowed before & its also important to note that the majority of his fights are fought at his pace. Jiri never slows down & also has what I like to call indomitable will; meaning he will keep marching forward despite any physical/mental ailments, a perfect example of this is the glover fight. You can be better than jiri anywhere but you have to finish him to get him off of you. Poatan can absolutely finish jiri but I have to pick Jiri in this fight because I believe the matchup favors him. Poatan is a better technical striker but I think he has an uphill battle with the cardio and speed disadvantages, on top of Jiri’s chaos. I didn’t touch on it because I don’t think he will, but I also give the grappling advantage to Jiri. 




Pavlovich vs Aspinall 
Aspinall SUB RD 1 

Here we go, the clash of the titans. I know there is a lot of heated debate on this one & while I have been adamant as being on the aspinall side, I won’t be mad if pavlovich wins. I love both these guys, they are tanks who have bulldozed their way through everyone in the ufc. Pavlovich had a poor debut, getting taken down easily & subsequently dominated on the ground. Since then, hes gone 6-0 steamrolling everyone. Theres a few things that set pavlovich apart from other heavyweights. For one he is a freak athlete, the guy is absolutely massive & not an ounce of fat on him. Secondly, he can actually strike. Most heavyweights are just fatties swinging bombs but palvovich has good boxing technique. He also has an absurd 84 inch reach which is what really makes him so scary. He throws straight punches with so much speed and power that its near impossible to stand and trade with him. His long reach not only allows him to win exchanges, but it allows him to do thinks like throwing his signature uppercut through the guard. When you break it down, his game is pretty limited; he just spams right hands & tanks every shot until he sleeps you. The funniest thing to me is pavlovich’s utter disregard for everyone he fights, the way he just ate shots from blaydes without even flinching was hilarious yet also terrifying, like how are you supposed to put this guy away? This doesn’t only happen against blaydes tho, literally everyone hes fought just can’t seem to do damage to him. Im still not sure what to think of pavlvoich’s wrestling. If it was elite as everyone says, then he would be using it more. Im sure he’s not easy to get down because hes massive & so wide but we saw with overeem that if you get him down he is not getting back up. I am also very curious about his cardio; the way pavlovich fights, there is no chance his cardio can be good after a blitz like he does for more than a minute. Maybe he really is just a specimen & doesn’t get tired, but if aspinall can survive an early flurry I wonder how pavlovich will look. Pavlovich is a different kind of heavyweight due to his physical qualities, aspinall also has great physical qualities, but the different ways he is taking out his opponents is just different. The way he moves & mixes his whole arsenal together is unlike anything ive seen from a heavyweight before. Aspinall is a massive hw in his own right (i think he even has to diet down to 265) but he is so fast for a hw. His speed is similar to that of gane’s; just super light on his feet & his movements are insanely fast for a hw. One thing I don’t like is how aspinall keeps his chin up in the air; that is a death sentence against someone like pavlovich. However, Aspinall has shown a very good awareness of when to tuck his chin, on top of having great head movement. Its rare to see head movement from a hw regardless, but aspinall’s head movement is super fast & he just sees everything coming. I really worry about him trying this defense against pavlovich but he has shown to have a good awareness of his distance at all times. The tape tells me that nobody can seem to hurt pavlovich but I really think aspinall can have his moments on the feet. I know pavlovich is a monster, but now hes finally facing another elite hw, Aspinall’s striking game is very good. I said earlier he just sees everything, this helps him defensively but offensively it allows him to pick his shots. Aspinall is a very good counter striker & he will throw back almost immediately after you do. Pavlovich has also never faced someone who will kick his legs, so that is something to watch. Aspinall’s main path to victory is wrestling; the timing on his takedowns is so impressive & he sets them up almost as good as anyone in the ufc. If he gets pavlovich down, I think he will cruise, the issue of course is getting him there. This is going to be a quick fight but its so hard to pick. Pavlovich seems to be an immovable force but I think aspinall is more well rounded so im going with him.



Andrade vs Dern 
Dern SUB RD 2

Thankfully the people of tapology are smart enough to pick dern but I have actually seen people making arguments for how andrade wins this fight. Now, I have been a big dern hater but I simply do not get how someone can logically keep picking andrade in 2023. I will always love andrade’s style and how she approaches her fights, but I think her career is coming to an end. Ever since she beat lauren murphy, Andrade has just been taking fight after fight, not caring about the result. I really dislike people who are too active; some people like holland or curtis can do it with no issues but the majority of people can’t. The human body is just simply not made to fight more than 2-3 times a year; even if you win the damage from camps and fights adds up, you hurt your cardio with multiple weight cuts, and you don’t add anything new to your game or fix any holes, you just get octagon experience. Its great when you first get to the ufc but once you reach a certain level you need time to prep for each opponent. It’s not like andrade is winning close fights either, shes getting finished & getting finished badly at that. She was decently competitive with andrade but her last two fights have been complete washouts. Andrade has never been technical but it seems like nobody respects her power anymore; erin stood & banged with her (and was winning) and Yan countered her with ease, giving andrade the worst loss of her career. I have always been frustrated with Dern because she has the talent but never seemed to put it together. However, her last fight was phenomenal. Hill is not amazing but on paper she is a bad matchup for dern; great striker with high output & solid tdd and Dern just dogwalked her. She dominated on the ground like she always does but what blew me away was the striking improvements. She hurt/dropped angela on multiple occasions & while she may not be very technical, the power she was throwing with was great. Honestly, you don’t even need to be technical to beat andarde on the feet, you need a good chin & the balls to stand up to her. Dern wasn’t perfect in this fight, she did get hit at times & there were moments where she ended up on bottom off of a takedown, but these were massive improvements compared to previous fights. After that fight, she went to Fight Ready & was training with Cejudo, so im interested to see what she brings here. Dern has been rocked many times before and has been caught by the same hooks andrade throws before, but I think this new “don’t give a ****” attitude will serve Dern well here. She can make the fight ugly & try and land on the hittable andrade. I’m expecting Dern’s wrestling to look improved in this fight but I can also see a scenario where she just pulls guard or honestly andrade being dumb enough to shoot a td/follow her to the ground. I wouldn’t even be shocked if we see a dern ko either. All I know for sure is that andrade is getting finished & fighting for a 5th time this year is not the solution to fixing her losing streak. 

Frevola vs Saint Denis 
Frevola KO RD 1
I know this is an incredibly unpopular pick but I have been a steamrolla fan the whole way, so I don’t see a reason to stop now. Even if I wasn’t supporting my boy, I still think this is a 50/50 fight. I get why people are on BSD, the dude is a bulldozer & has looked unstoppable since going to 155. However, I think people are once again counting out the skills of frevola (and also slightly overrating the skills of BSD). First, lets talk about the size of the two. BSD is no doubt a massive 155er, likely one of the biggest on the roster but Frevola is not a small guy either; I remember specifically on his ig story 2 weeks after he beat dober, he posted a photo on the scale & he was weighing 190 lbs, definitely not a small lightweight either. Size isn’t the only area frevola can match BSD, he can match him in pace & cardio too (in fact, he can push harder in each area if he wants). I don’t want to put too much weight since it was shortish notice & up a weight class, but we saw BSD get very tired when he couldn’t put away Zaleski and he has gotten pretty tired in some of his fights outside the ufc. His cardio looked endless against moises, but he was also bullying mosies & not facing much resistance back. Frevola is not going to back down from a fire fight and hits much harder on top of that. A few important things I think should be noted in this matchup: First, frevola’s chin is not as bad as everyone thinks. He got slept in his debut (bad look sure but how many other people have had terrible debuts), and getting slept by mckinney was definitely embarrassing but I really don’t think its THAT bad of a loss; mckinney may be a glass cannon but his power in that first round is something else. I'm not gonna sit here & say that frevola is some master of defense, because he's not, but I think his “glass” chin is massively overrated. This brings me to my second point, people dont take note of it as much since he is winning fights but BSD is a complete liability on defense. He’s got a hell of a chin but nearly every fight he is getting hit like crazy & usually has to go through hell ti get his win. Even though he was dominating for 90% of the fight, even moises was hitting BSD back with some counters. In my opinion, BSD has yet to fight someone who can match that power he felt at 170, while he doesnt have the power of a welterweight, there is no doubt frevola hits like a truck. On the feet I really do think this fight is 50/50, its about who can land the kill shot first. I favor frevola because of the power advantage; BSD swarms you with punches but he just breaks you with his pace, hes not a power puncher like frevola. He definitely hits hard but doesn’t have one shot ko power. In the grappling I favor BSD; I am actually very impressed with his top control. He triangles the legs, Russian style and has a very good bjj game. He can be reversed pretty easily & his opponents are able to get up most of the time but, much like the rest of his game, BSD will just keep going until he runs through you. I absolutely think BSD should be the favorite, but I think this line is way too wide. I have gone 3-0 picking frevola on his streak (and called mckinney to beat him but I wasn’t on the site back then) and i’m gonna continue here. 

I’m so hyped for this card, so many bangers and competitive fight, I think this is the most underrated card of the year because they’re not many names on it.

Also, last 2 card wasn’t great so it make me want a good ufc more 

Man there's some really tough picks on this card. A BUNCH of live dogs here.

Can't believe Costa is such a underdog on here to start the night

Procházka vs. Pereira
Alex Pereira, TKO, R1
Alex via KO. Jiri is very hittable. Obviously throws crazy combinations and striking is unique but can see Alex marching him down and landing a left hook putting him out.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R1
Sergei via KO. Both are talented heavyweights but Tom’s fight against Curtis (yes I know he blew his knee out) but Curtis was landing clean punches on him. If sergie lands clean it’s goodnight.

Andrade vs. Dern
Mackenzie Dern, SUB, R2
Dern via sub. Dern gets through round one and drags Jessica down and drowns her. When jessica gets tired she just gives up positions.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, TKO, R1
Denis via TKO. What a fun fight we get the pleasure to watch. Matt’s pace is insane but Benoit looks very good. I could see Matt catching Benoit though.

Sadykhov vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, TKO, R2
Santa via KO. Santaaaaa CLAUSSSS

Ricci vs. Godinez
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
Ricci via Dec. Fun fight!

Tapology got the fight order wrong, Erseg vs Costa is main eventing the prelim, 

Someone should change it, Wikipedia has the correct order 

@Tapology 

Jiri bout to get that title back.. Hope he KO's Perreira 

7-2-1 UFC Sao Paolo.....let's get it this week! 

@DamienHandel420 

Appreciate  that 👌

A few tough ones to call for me are Casteñada/Kang, Godinez/Ricci, Sabatini/Lopez, and Pereira/Prochazka. Can see paths to victory for both sides. 

When I think of this Pavlovich/Aspinall matchup the Bonfim/Dalby fight we just watched is burned into my mind. He's never seen a 2nd round in the UFC and if he gets there I think he gasses and Aspinall melts him.

Tom Aspinal has the shortest  fight time in the ufc at 2:18 and Sergai has the 2nd at 2:23, it’s pretty much the same

Also, it fact both guys have one round cardio, but no evidence for anything above that, my guess is both guy don’t have crazy cardio, expecting both to have 1 and a half to 2 round of cardio

* Edited at 11.06.2023, 1:23 AM ET *

Procházka vs. Pereira
Jiří Procházka, TKO, R3
Pereira has everything he needs to win this fight, but I think Jiri can destroy him with pace. The output of Prochazka combined with his creativity is absurd. I see this going down as technical range-striking in the beginning, pace dictated by Pereira, then more of a technical brawl later in the fight, with Prochazka taking over and scoring a stoppage.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R4
This is almost a dead 50/50. Given a full camp, I would take Aspinall; but Pavlovich, having been in camp for a while, having prepared for two extremely well-versed HW grapplers is a big advantage; on the other hand, you can't quite equip yourself to take five big hooks in any duration of camp, really. Plus, Pavlovich having been five rounds before gives me a lot more confidence in this. He can keep his pace for the full twenty-five without losing a significant amount of sting on his strikes - you could even argue, for that reason, that he gets stronger as the fight goes on - and I simply don't see Aspinall doing him like a ragdoll. Which is exactly what he'll need here. Barring the outcome of a five-round back-and-forth, I think Pavlovich's preparation to be the backup of Jones-Stipe will really pay off here; he'll come in light on his feet, overcome the initial threat of the grappling, and eventually piece up Aspinall. Really pulling for a Tom victory though.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, SUB, R1
I think BSD really is something special, and his evolution is something I'm keenly interested in. If he continues evolving at the rate he is, he's going to be a monster. Great fight IQ, a well-rounded skillset and a killer instinct will make this quick night for BSD.

@DamienHandel420 

totally agree with this in the case of Aspinall, but I think I disagree about Pavlo. Pavlo has been training for 25 minute fights for 6 months, which will always include 25 minute spars. Especially training to potentially take on Stipe/Bones? Tough for me to think the guys gonna come without a gas tank. Tough one for to call as I love both of them… Just think the path to victory by potential decision much more favors Sergei. 

You guys need to remember that Aspinall is the guy without any sort of 3rd round experience here, let alone 5 rounds. Pavlovich has actually gone the distance in both a 3 rounder and a 5 rounder.

Sure, his approach has been balls to the wall ever since the Reem loss, but there's no reason to think he can't pace himself depending on the opponent.