UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Knutsson looks comparatively huge!  Thanks for the link!

Posting to see my tier.

Roman, Holland & Shevchenko LFG 

Grasso vs. Shevchenko II
Alexa Grasso, SUB, R3
history will repeat. Grasso should be even more confident now

Holland vs. Maddalena
Kevin Holland, TKO, R2
This should be a great fight. both really good.

Rosas Jr. vs. Mitchell
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R1
Rosas no problema

If more than 3 Mexicans win I will down a bottle of Tequila in one setting and maybe die, lol just kidding it would take a case! 

* Edited at 09.15.2023, 7:53 PM ET *

We'll get a leaderboard available real soon, so that it's not necessary to post to see your tier.

@Joshjeffords 

There are so many better options than Jose Cuervo.  Try this smoky mezcal.

Posting to see tier

Will do sounds good.

Let's see if Kopylov improved his TDD. He had three tailor-made match-ups in a row

There you go.

Edit: Ahh I see you took care of it, well this is my excuse to check my UFC tier.

* Edited at 09.15.2023, 9:35 PM ET *

@gliese58i 

Well, now it's a gold-level recommendation.  Lol.

#TierCheck

I got Grasso at +200, but the line fell so much I'm thinking of arbing it. I can guarantee a 6% profit right now, not the worst against a fighter like Valentina.

I guess I actually have to watch their last fight now. Oh well, I'll be responsible and do it, betting Grasso at +200 was an easy decision. Now I actually have to find out what exactly I think the odds should be.

Mm alright, I give it 60/40 Val so I get about the same return on an arb as letting it ride. Arb it is then, I hate predicting main events.

This is a good matchup between two potential top-15 contenders. Kopylov is coming in hot with a three-fight finish streak (also a crazy head kick KO last fight, check it out) after his rough start within the UFC. Likewise, Fremd also had a rocky start to his UFC run but is now riding a two-fight win streak. I’d assume whoever secures the finish in this fight is likely to be set up to meet a top-15 OPP in their next fight. Will Kopylov find another highlight reel KO or will Fremd grind his way towards a longer win streak? 

Stand Up Phase:

Kopylov (SP) has good fundamental kickboxing. Most of the damage he deals is within boxing range where he uses a fast jab to set up quick, in and out combinations. He’s able to mix up high and low attacks very well and can provide a sustained body attack. His defense is good, keeping his hands high and can roll under punches. Fremd (OX) has a high-volume kickboxing style. He has good power in his hooks and right cross combined with his forward pressure. He throws a lot of variety of kicks and can be seen throwing flying knees. His defense can be predictable and tends to turn away from strikes, not keeping his OPP in his line of sight. Prediction: I see Kopylov being able to keep Fremd at bay with his jab and low kicks until he’s able to time a few combinations. If Fremd is not able to constantly pressure Kopylov from setting up his strikes, he’ll likely be worn down by Kopylov’s boxing or set up for a high kick. 

Clinch Phase:

Kopylov is primarily defensive within the clinch, electing to break grips and return to striking range. He has shown great TD defense in open space and against the cage. He also can shoot for a well-timed TD, but that’s only when he is firmly in control of the stand up. Fremd likes to pressure constantly when OPP is against the cage, shooting for singles and landing strikes on the clinch break. His TD success is a bit lacking, but his consistent pressure tends to wear OPPs down. He’s shown the ability to land quick throws. His TD defense is also a bit lacking, but he makes up for it with quick neck attacks when his OPPs shoot for TDs. Prediction: I see Fremd attempting to keep the fight within the clinch to wear down Kopylov and force him to constantly defend. If Fremd can find success with this strategy it will open chances to land heavy strikes on Kopylov. Fremd must use cardio and pressure to wear out Kopylov since that’s been somewhat of a weakness shown in past fights. 

Ground Phase:

Kopylov’s TD defense has been successful for most of his UFC run. However, when the fight reaches the ground, it hasn’t gone well for him. He’s been shown being controlled in inferior positions very easily and not shown the ability to progress out from these positions before taking heavy damage. Fremd does not have great control when he has taken OPPs to the ground. He’s able to control his OPPs in half guard or full guard and chooses to land GnP instead of progressing to more dominant positions. Fremd does well with Sub attempts and can force OPPs to panic allowing him to progress to a better position. Fremd has good defensive grappling, showing the ability to reverse then secure top position or return the fight to the feet. Prediction: If Fremd can secure a TD, he’ll be able to hold position and land lots of GnP on Kopylov, forcing him to fatigue more quickly. If the opportunity is present, I could see Fremd securing a guillotine for the finish. 

Predictions: Kopylov wins by Third Round TKO 

I believe Kopylov’s TD defense, along with Fremd’s poor TD securing ability, will allow him to stop all of Fremd’s TD attempts. Kopylov will then be able to keep Fremd at bay on the feet with combinations and movement, slowly breaking Fremd down. Due to Fremd superior conditioning, I assume it will take a few rounds for this to happen unless Kopylov is able to land a damaging combination early in the fight. 

Abbreviations:

SP: Southpaw 
OX: Orthodox 
TD: Takedown 
OPP: Opponent 
GnP: Ground and pound

This is a fun matchup between two high action finishers in the UFC Welterweight division. Holland is a fan favorite with an impressive resume facing many popular names in the Welterweight and Middleweight divisions. He’s coming in riding a two-fight finish streak and looking to add another big name on his record. Maddalena is a surging new contender out of Australia who came into the UFC on a four-fight finish streak, all in the first round. After a tough last fight, due to a last-minute opponent change, he’s looking to return to his finishing ways and continue his climb up the rankings. Will Holland’s unorthodox style notch him another thrilling performance or will Maddalena’s vicious boxing bring the Aussie another quick finish? 

Stand Up Phase: 

Holland (OX) has very unorthodox striking, which complements his unique frame, and good power in both hands. He primarily uses kicks or his jab to set up his boxing combinations and can hurt his OPP from odd angles. He has decent defense and can lean out the way of most strikes due to his, often, height advantage. He does tend to absorb a lot of damage but has shown a good chin. Maddalena (SW) has crisp boxing and uses his pressure and accurate jab to corner his OPP against the cage before landing vicious combinations. His defense is great in boxing range with constant use of head movement and slipping punches. His high guard does well to block punches but leaves his body open. He does well with attacking the head and body during combinations. Prediction: Holland’s power and length does make his boxing difficult to deal with, but his unorthodox style presents a lot of holes. I predict Maddalena’s cleaner boxing and responsible defense will be enough to dodge most of Holland’s heavy shots and set him up for quick counters.

Clinch Phase:

Holland likes to use his length and Thai clinch to tie up his OPPs defensively and offensively in the clinch before landing heavy strikes. His TD defense has improved dramatically in recent years, in space and against the cage. He also can use his long arms to find quick neck attacks (D’arce) from poor shots by OPPs. Maddalena has good TD defense against the cage and does well with pummeling for UHs. He’s primarily defensive in the clinch but can use good dirty boxing to land UCs. He’s shown the ability to jump on neck attacks, but doesn’t have great control, allowing them to escape the submission and force him into an inferior position. Prediction: I predict Holland being able to tie up Maddalena and pressure him against the cage before landing good elbows and hooks. If Holland manages to stun Maddalena, forcing him to shoot a TD, I could see him locking up a D’arce or an Anaconda for the finish. 

Ground Phase:

Holland has decent control in top position and has shown good GnP, but typically after he’s stunned his OPP. He’s improved his ability to get back to the feet and does well to control grips before finding the cage to assist him. He also has good scramble ability and has shown good submission defense. Maddalena has decent control in top position, electing to land GnP over maintaining control. He’s not on the ground often but can be controlled in half guard and mount. He doesn’t do well with progressing position to return to his feet. Prediction: I only see this fight hitting the ground unless someone has been hurt and the attacker is going for the finish. 

Predictions: Maddalena wins by Unanimous Decision

I predict Maddalena’s cleaner boxing, tight defense, and linear shots will allow him to find counters against Holland’s wider shots. I could see it being very back and forth with knockdowns on both sides, but Maddalena’s better technique will give him the edge in the exchanges and should give him the win. 

Abbreviations:

OX: Orthodox
SW: Switch
OPP: Opponent
TD: Takedown
UH: Underhooks
UC: Uppercut
 GnP: Ground and pound    

Grasso shocked the world in her last fight, ending the longest championship defense streak in UFC Women’s history. She etched her name in history by becoming the first Mexican-born woman to hold a UFC title. Shevchenko’s legacy is already set in stone with her impressive dominance at Women’s Flyweight and being highly competitive at Women’s Bantamweight. At this point, she’s merely trying to regain her title and erase the stain of a mistake (in her words) from her legacy. Will Shevchenko be able to regroup using her champions grit and all-time great level of skill or will Grasso reassert the idea that the first win was far from a fluke and a new era has arrived in the Women’s Flyweight division?

Stand Up Phase:

Grasso’s (OX) solid boxing and fundamentals allow her to control the close range effectively before finding opportunities for vicious counters and quick combinations. She has great head movement and defense to avoid her OPPs attacks. She setups combinations well by using her jab and timing, this puts her OPPs on the defensive allowing her to rain down more damage. Shevchenko (SP) is a great counter striker with a variety of kicks she uses to keep OPPs guessing before finding opportunities to land quick combinations. She stuns her OPPs with counters, forcing them to be hesitant, and eventually wearing them with a variety of heavy strikes. The linear retreat of her defense is a hole that can exploited with long combinations. Prediction: Grasso’s effective use of long combinations will possibly still be an effective tool in this fight if Shevchenko has not found a good counter to this exploit. Shevchenko could either avoid strikes at an angle or have a well-timed attack for when Grasso comes in with her combinations.

Clinch Phase:

Shevchenko has an effective offensive and defensive clinch game. Offensively, she finds chances for well-timed shots or uses body lock TDs against the cage. She has good TD defense against the cage but is lacking in pummeling and breaking the clinch. Grasso is primarily defensive in the clinch. She has good TD defense against the cage but is lacking when in open space. She does have the ability to shoot for TDs, but typically only shoots when in full control on the feet. Prediction: Grasso’s scrambling ability proved very effective in gaining the initiative and ultimately finishing Shevchenko. I predict Shevchenko using more clinching against the cage to slow down Grasso and find chances to secure TDs.

Ground Phase:

Shevchenko has good control on the ground, electing to control her OPPs in half guard or find opportunities to secure the Crucifix before landing vicious GnP. She has an active guard from the bottom and has shown the ability to find Subs from her back. Defensively, she’s able to progress well from inferior positions and return to her feet. However, she is lacking in defensive hand fighting when her back is taken and has issues with escaping the body lock. Grasso has decent control on the ground, electing to scramble to the back to find the RNC. Her guard has improved dramatically in recent years, and she’s shown competence in creating space and controlling the hips of OPPs to return to the feet. Prediction: Shevchenko will most likely use a more ground heavy strategy since she has a clear advantage but will possibly focus more on control than landing effective GnP. Grasso’s timing with defending shots will need to make a substantial improvement, especially when it comes to maintaining balance and hand fighting, if she expects to make Shevchenko’s grappling ineffective.

Predictions: Grasso wins by Unanimous Decision

I predict Grasso can make enough improvements in defending the TD setups of Shevchenko to force her to remain in the stand up. Shevchenko seems to have lost a step with the sharpness of her striking, along with it being very difficult to alter her striking style to compensate for a hole that can be so effectively exploited by Grasso’s striking. I believe Shevchenko still has enough to not be finished but her Everest-like dominance over the rest of Flyweight division has most likely come to an end.

Abbreviations:

OX: Orthodox
SP: Southpaw
TD: Takedown
OPP: Opponent
GnP: Ground and pound
RNC: Rear Naked Choke 

* Edited at 09.15.2023, 11:45 PM ET *

Holland vs. Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena, DEC
Should be Fight of the Night