UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Lmaoooo Abus is the play? The dude with a solid 4 mins of cardio

First look at the card and wow, 14 fights? Also, Boralhio against Abus, ***? How is this competitive 

@crimson this is the same guy who said Ricky Glenn was a lock over dober so he’s not all there yknow

Why is the gap between events until this card so big ? Can anyone say why there is not going to be a card next weekend ?

@VicStrk 

UFC will skip a week sometimes because of holiday, or to not go head to head with another event. 
Ngannou Vs. Fury next week BTW

Got it. Thanks for the answer man !

Anyone seen film on kaue fernandes? I wonder why they signed him & not the undefeated dude that beat him. 

@mothswords Kaue is really bad. He has explosive kicks but poor boxing & can’t wrestle well. He has really bad cardio too. I have no idea why the ufc signed this guy; they must have a deal with nova uniao because they signed Luan Lacerda (a nova uniao fighter) the last time they went & he isn’t ufc level either. I know they’re in Brazil but imo it seems like the ufc is giving Diakese a layup for the headbutt that led to the Joel loss 

* Edited at 10.22.2023, 2:45 PM ET *

I thought I'd post here early, because I know a lot of you will start making unbelievably stupid picks on here like picking Anshul Julie in the last card.

Don't do that, just wait for me to drop my picks and you will all be ok. I am going for a perfect card this time. The card is so easy to pick correctly 

Rah what are your thoughts on Rodolfo vs Armen

Someone actually asking my opinion? There is hope for the world still !

Like Volk I am a champion and I have to keep analysing MMA and making picks or I can't survive.

This is an interesting fight. Armen is obviously levels above on the feet and Rodolfo has levels higher grappling but the question is who has the advantage. Rodolfo had horrible cardio in the Fluffy fight but I think that was more an adrenaline dump and it was Fluffy. His cardio has looked better since if he can pace things but I am still not convinced. We know Armen gets taken down, my question is can he get up like he usually does. The issue is when he gets down can Rodolfo lock him down and proceed to a submission. Personally I think Armen has shown enough to suggest he can survive good grapplers and stand up and I think he will target Rodolfos body and legs and he will gas later on.

Armen by late TKO is my excellent pick 👍 

My heart says Blackbeast 1st Round KO with a crazy post celebration but my mind saysAlmeida 1st Round Sub

Gabriel Bonfim 1st Round Sub

Ismael Bonfim 1st round KO (you know when the bros are competing together, they're stronger)

Elves Brener 2nd Round KO

Vitor Petrino 1st Round KO

thank you Rah. you are a gentleman and a scholar

@el222 

what's happening right now ? Are you trying reverse psychology or something ? 

On the fights this card I have never watched the guy that is opening the event but tapology seems to be high on him, Is Daniel Marcos really that good ? Cuz i tought that Victor Hugo was good from what i saw. 

I just checked and this dude had a fight in the aspinall vs tybura card.

Either the fight was **** and i blocked it from my memory or he is that easy to forget about because I completely forgot he existed after watching that event. 

Someone talk me out of taking Lucas Alexander as a dog over Onama. He looked really good his last fight and there's no shame in being submitted by Brito. If this fight stays standing he could pick Onama apart at range. Onama is going to have to turn into a wrestler or catch him if he wants to win this.

@VicStrk 

 He's got pretty crisp striking. He looked like a future star in his debut and had a close fight against Davey Grant in his 2nd fight, even though some think he lost. If Hugo wasn't taking this on short notice and cutting to 135 for the second time in a month I might take him, but this is a tough debut opponent under weird circumstances.

It's not reverse psychology, it's enlightenment 🙏

Petrino vs Bukauskas 
Petrino KO RD 2

Petrino is the definition of an ape. Everything he does is based on his physicality; he is a massive human & is all muscle. Every fight he has is a brawl, his only gameplan is to walk you down and throw bombs. He just plods forward with his hands low & allows himself to get hit so easily. His technique is pretty good but all he wants to do is take your head off. He throws all his power into every shot and leaves himself open for counters constantly. Hes able to win fights because hes just so damn physcial that once he lands it can change the fight in an instant. He doesn’t have to be more technical & is willing to get hit just to land a bomb. A new wrinkle to his game is wrestling. His wrestling is not that good but his insane strength allows him to ragdoll most people. Same goes for his grappling; his bjj is not very good but he is able to just muscle his way past peoples guards. While he has this crazy physical strength, he is honestly not a good fighter at all; he goes to war with everyone, he gasses himself out every fight from overswinging (yet he does always fight through it), and almost every fight he gets chinned. Petrino has a lot of flaws but there is just as much to dislike about modestas. Modestas is on his 2nd ufc run after a very poor 1-3 run. He hasn’t improved at all really but has just been facing people more on his level. Modestas is a pretty good striker but his problem is output; he wants to drag you into a boring sparring match where he can pick you apart. He’s got solid low kicks and sharp punches & I think his counter punching is great, especially his check left hook. The problem with his counters is that I feel as if he doesn’t throw anything with full power, probably because he doesn’t want to over swing. I think this fight is going to be very similar to modestas’s last fight with zac pauga. Pauga fought very similarly to how petrino does; he marched modestas down & tried to brawl with him. Pauga ended up losing because he was not pressuring the entire time & modestas was making reads on his striking. The difference between pauga and petrino is pauga lacks the size, strength, athleticism, and power that petrino has. The striking in this fight is going to be ugly & close (as it always is with petrino) but i think his ability to make the fight ugly & his power is going to get him the win. Modestas is a much better striker but he doesn’t react well to punches at all. Petrino can also mix in wrestling if he wants. I dont know how much success he will ultimately have on top but he can win minutes at worst with his takedowns. I would not be shocked with an upset but I just don’t like a lot about modestas. 



Hill vs Gomes  
Hill DEC

This is a tricky one for me because I can never pick Hill fights correctly. Every time I think she is going to put on a vet lesson she gets her ass kicked & vice versa. Similarly, I have been fading gomes because I hated her pre ufc tape, yet she has been looking very good in the ufc. However, despite my inability to make reads on both these girls fights, I really think gomes ufc run is going to end here. When it comes down to skills, Gomes is not that good. She does come from a muay thai background & while she has an aggressive style and crazy power, she has no defense at all & walks you down. She will often just throw things to throw them & leaves herself to be hit. However, she has dog in her which we have seen time & time again wins you so many fights in wmma. Her power and the ability to tank damage has made her able to beat girls who are much better technical strikers than her. I will say, her boxing in the pocket is slick but she does still leave a lot of openings. Hill is coming off of the worst beatdown of her career. Dern really shocked me, not only because she beat hill but because she beat hill everywhere. On the feet she was hurting hill badly & on the ground just toyed with her. Getting dominated in the grappling is to be expected but what was a little concerning was how when dern made the fight ugly, Hill was lost. She turned it into a brawl & hill just could not keep up. My original thought was gomes can enact this same gameplan & while gomes is a brawler, she does not move nearly the same as dern. Dern ran right into angela’s face throwing straight punches & creating chaos, Gomes plods forward throwing overhands & looping punches. It should also be noted there is a huge speed & skill difference between dern and gomes. Dern was also doing a good job of track where angela was moving & cutting her off, gomes doesnt do that. Instead, she just stalks you. With how hittable she is i think hill will be able to jab and leg kick her as she pleases. I think a really important thing to note here is the level of competition; Gomes is looking great but she is beating very inexperienced girls, both of whom have poor defense to boot. Her wins will age well but she beat these girls before they had ever really been in a fight before. Now she’s going against one of the most experienced women on the roster, who has fought every champion in the weight class. Yes, she got dominated in her last fight but dern is a top contender. I think hill should be able to put a vet lesson on the aggressive, yet very sloppy gomes. Then again, im not super confident here since I can never pick hill fights correctly. However, she has always shown that she can beat this level of fighter before so unless the dern fight made her washed I believe she can do this. 



Alexander vs Onama  
Onama SUB RD 1

This is really weird matchmaking. I do like that the ufc is slow rolling onama but I think they couldve given him someone a little more challenging. I mean, on the feet alexander is much more technical, but onama isn’t going to give him the fight he wants so I don’t think this is going to be a close fight. Alexander looks terrible on paper but his striking is actually pretty solid. Alexander is a very lengthy fighter & pairs this length with a very dynamic striking style. He knows how to use his reach advantage & likes to stay on the outside picking you apart with his weapons. Alexander is always giving out different looks & constantly switches stances. He prefers kicks but has good hands as well. He kicks the legs a lot but attacks all parts of the body with his kicks. While he is not a knockout artist, his kicks do a ton of damage; he butchered peterson’s leg last fight & Jacob Kilburn broke his arm blocking a body kick from alexander. So, if you don’t figure out a way to get past his kicks, they will add up and do a lot of damage. The biggest flaws of alexander is pressure & his grappling. If you pressure alexander, his whole game falls apart. When hes not at striking range, he can;t get off a lot of his kicks & while his boxing is solid, its not the best part of his game. His grappling is also very bad. He doesn’t have great takedown defense & once you get him to the ground he has very poor submission defense. Onama’s main flaw is his defense. Every fight of Onama’s is the same; he makes it an ugly fight & relies on his durability and power to break you. Onama reminds me of a featherweight luque. He gets rocked in almost all his fights due to poor defense but he has very good recovery and is super tough. While defense is not his strong suit, I don’t think he is going to respect the striking of Alexander (because he doesn’t respect anyones striking) and just start brawling with him. Alexander doesn’t really have the power to hurt him unless Onama gets caught with a head kick. But even then I don’t think the kicks will be a problem since onama is going to keep this fight at close range. Onama can beat alexander on the feet but if he grapples I think this fight gets a whole lot easier. While its not his plan A, Onama is a pretty competent grappler. He knows how to wrestle & his technique is decent but that’s more than enough to beat alexander. Onama more than likely puts him out but I think he is going to grapple here & give alexander his 4th sub loss.


Conejo vs Moura  
Moura SUB RD 1

I said it before moura fought on dwcs but when you’re given limited tape on someone, you’re only left with questions, not complaints. On the tape i’ve seen she looks like a beast; its ironic she trains with jailton because she is literally a female version of him. She is huge for the weight class, chiseled from stone, and appears to be an incredible grappler. Her dwcs fight was short but sweet, she stood for 5 seconds, shot a td, and proceeded to maul that girl with suppressive top control & high level bjj. One concern I have is her striking; it did not look good on the limited tape I saw & i didn’t like how high her chin was when striking on dwcs. However, that is a worry for another time because conejo has no striking. My other concern is Moura’s cardio. Her only decision is a split against a negative record journeywoman. Now, it should be noted that 1. This girl is hard to finish & 2. Almost every notable wmma brazilian has fought her. There’s also no footage so we don’t know if it was a clear dec that someone tried to fix, or if it was a robbery where she won the first and gassed. Given all her other fights are first round finishes, im going to assume the latter. And honestly, thats my only worry in this fight, that conejo is too tough & moura gasses herself out. We saw Conejo is clueless on the mat but she can take an ass whooping (those subs were tight af too but I do have some doubts to amorim’s sub ability). Conejo has one move, the classic wmma head and arm throw. She has nothing else to offer besides that & should be at atomweight. She is massively undersized & outskilled here. Outside of moura gassing i don’t see how she can win this fight. 

Fernandes vs Diakese  
Diakiese DEC 

Idk why the ufc keeps signing Nova Uniao prospects & debuting them against journeyman. I'm all for new faces in the ufc but they keep taking people who aren't ready & throwing them into the mix. I think fernandes is really talented but he doesn’t seem ufc ready to me. Everything Fernandes does is fast twitch; from his movements to his takedowns, everything is done very quickly. His striking is very explosive but honestly not that impressive to me. He has insane power & has a great highlight reel but his strikes are really looping. They’re super fast but he chambers everything & puts all of his strength into each shot. I really like his leg kicks but his punches don’t do it for me; he throws them too looping & he's just putting too much power into them. If he toned down the explosivity like 30% i think his stirling would be a lot more effective. His grappling is pretty good. Much like with his stirling, he's very explosive with his transitions. He is very easily able to move position & his takedowns are solid. His lone loss to luann sardinha is an odd one. He lost the fight, but the real reason he lost was due to his gas tank; he was clearly in control for the first 8 minutes but death gassed hard in the end of round 2 which cost him the fight. Because of how explosive he is, Kaue does not have a good gas tank. Even after round 1 he was clearly very tired but was able to get to the clinch. When his cardio goes, kaue looks awful. He still has power & speed on his punches but they lack that crispness they do early & he becomes extremely hittable. His grappling & wrestling seems okay but I have a feeling a good wrestler is a horrible matchup for him. I hate everything about diakiese. When he first came to the ufc he was this super dynamic striker but as he's lost fights he has almost regressed in the striking. He's still got athleticism & some flair but he's lost all his confidence on the feet. He doesn’t seem to trust himself as much anymore & he never throws combos, just 1-2 punches/kicks at a time. One thing that diakiese does consistently well is wrestling. His wrestling is horrible to watch because he wet blankets you the whole time, but he is a very good wrestler. On the feet I think kaue will be able to have his moments; diakese doesn’t have great defense & leaves himself so open any time he throws a leg kick. But, diakese can definitely hold his own; its not like hes a bad striker he just lost a lot of his flashiness. He throws good leg kicks (& knows how to check them) and his boxing is solid; i was shocked how well he was holding his own against a much bigger joel alvarez. Diakeise’s grappling is going to be money here. He is just going to keep wrestling until kaue gets tired & wet blanket him. I would love to see him get koed but sadly i think this is too soon for kaue. 

* Edited at 10.22.2023, 7:44 PM ET *

Hugo vs Marcos 
 Marcos KO RD 2

I still don’t know where to rate hugo. His record looks great on paper; hes got a huge winstreak, great record, and lots of finishes but when I watch his fights I am so unimpressed. He is a powerful striker but he is very poor technically. His striking consists of two things hooks and leg kicks. Hugo is very explosive & puts all his power into these shots but hes pretty predictable. He telegraphs his leg kicks a lot & he misses a lot on his hooks because he just winds up. Despite having the nickname “striker” hugo loves to grapple; in fact i'd say it's his main gameplan. I really don’t know what to think of his westling. Honestly, his technique is good but its so hard to tell where his level is at because hes facing people who don’t know how to wrestle. Much like his striking, there is not much nuance with his wrestling, its pretty much all blast doubles. When hes on top he is mostly just a wet blanket. He doesn’t throw a ton of gnp and he doesn’t look to advance for subs. I don’t think ive seen someone more content to go for leg/heel submissions. I hate people who give up top control for subs & hugo does it constantly. He loves heel hooks, kneebars, calf slicers, etc. basically any form of leg attack you can think of, hes got it. Me personally, I think this is an extremely low level gameplan but it is unorthodox, so he can catch opponents who are unprepared. I was also not impressed with his dwcs fight. Hugo looked very tired after round 1 & his opponent fought a terrible gameplan by engaging in the grappling first & basically giving him the kneebar. Marcos is in a weird position; he has the 15-0 record but is coming off of a very flat performance. In all fairness, davey grant was a crazy push for only being Marcos’s 2nd fight but Marcos didn’t look great. On second rewatch, I honestly thought this was a very competitive fight; not a one-sided wash as people say. The issue was marcos’s volume; he was wayyyy too timid. However, he did pick his shots well & his defense was sharp as hell; he had grant miss on 68% of his shots. Think what you may of that fight, but there is no denying marcos is an incredibly slick striker. Idk what it is about him but I see something different when I watch him fight; I just love how he flows out there & he fights with a swag. What I like the most about marcos is his vision in the cage; he sees everything out there. He knows exactly when to counter & when a strike is coming. I think marcos is significantly better than hugo on the feet. What I worry about is the grappling of hugo. Marcos’s tdd has looked very good so far but he has yet to face a wrestler. Hugo’s wrestling looks pretty solid so this will be a test. On the ground I have a weird feeling marcos could get subbed; I am very skeptical of a peruvian strikers ground game. However, Marcos has really good footwork & is always switching stances so it may be hard for hugo to track him. I don’t think silva is very good but he possesses a big finishing threat. Im personally very high on marcos but I do worry that hugo could present problems with his wrestling. As the fight gets extended I favor Marcos because Hugo’s cardio is poor & hes fighting on short notice. 

Bonfim vs Pichel  
Bonfim DEC 

This is the perfect comeback fight for bonfim. While he did get destroyed in his last fight, it’s not aging as poorly as it looked. Also, Bonfim took that fight on short notice so who knows how that would’ve gone with a full camp. Bonfim was at a huge size discrepancy (former fw vs former ww) and honestly did everything right when defending but bsd just swarmed him. Now he’s facing a 40 year old vet striker who has had a multitutde of injuries throughout his career. On the rare chance Pichel actually makes it to the cage, he looks really solid. He keeps his hands low & uses his footwork to walk around the octagon and use his tools to pick you apart. Despite being old, Vinc’s reflexes & athleticism have held up. Hes able to move pretty freely & doesn’t appear to have lost any speed. Despite his hands beind down all the time his defense is pretty good too; he rarely gets hit clean & does a good job of moving around the cage to avoid staying in one place. One thing I dislike about his striking is his output. Pichel doesn’t have volume issues but he only throws one strike at a time. Its annoying to watch a little because his style is always stick & move; he will throw a punch or two & gets right back on his bike circling around the octagon. He also lacks power; its strange because hes not pillowfisted but nothing he lands really has much of an impact. Part of that is due to the fact that hes a big leg kicker & body attacker but also because hes just focused on single shots the majority of the time; he doesn’t throw a ton of combos. Vinc is a pretty good wrestler too but has the worst tdd ever. He doesn’t like to offensively wrestle that much tho. Bonfim is coming off of a disappointing performance however, that loss is aging well. Add in that he took the fight on short notice & was at a huge size discrepancy, and the performance is really not that bad. I think Bonfim is going to smoke pichel. Pichel is a really solid vet but his striking is not on the level of bonfim’s. Bonfim is a much sharper boxer & a very good counter striker. Pichel leaves a lot of openings with his striking & I think bonfim will be able to find counter shots. If Pichel wrestles I think bonfim will be able to defend everything. If he does get taken down he shouldn’t have a problem getting up. Bonfim throws very hard but he is not much of a finisher. Unless he hits pichel clean on the button I don’t see a knockout; pichel is very durable. 



Brener vs Ribovics  
Ribovics DEC

In terms of position in the division, this is a very weird fight; ribovics just got his first win while brener is currently on a massive 2 fight upset streak. Stylistically, this is going to be an insane fight; both these guys are brawlers with very good cardio who never back down. While Brener’s current ufc run is insane, it is important to note the context to his winstreak. While he did looke better than expected against Zuba, it doesn’t change the fact that he won a horrible robbery. Brener did a good job of absorbing the punches & staying composed against a much better striker but Zuba was sniping him and had him guessing on almost everything. He did land a few good shots but was outclassed in that one; and it wasn’t a robbery where the fight was close, he decisively lost that fight but the judges were just blind. Now the Guram performance was genuinely impressive; Brener stood toe to toe with a significantly superior striker & turned it into a dog fight. He was not respecting any part of Guram’s game & broke him down. While this was a phenomenal win & performance, there is some important context. For one, Guram looked very bad. This is not to diminish Brener’s performance but Guram did not look like his usual self. Guram was coming in on short notice after having to pull out a few weeks before & looked compromised from the weight cut; I have never seen him gas like that before. It should also be noted that again, while brener was making the fight more competitive than anyone expected, he was still down 2-0 & likely wouldve lost a 29-28 decision had guram survived. Again, I say this not to make brener seem bad, but he is not some elite prospect despite what his ufc record may tell you. He has that clean brazilian muay thai style that we see from the chute boxe guys. While he does like to brawl, I noticed Brener is a counter striker. He uses counters to land a shot & then opens up with combinations after. He uses a lote of knees & elbows but has pretty clean boxing. He was working the body very well against guram in their fight. Ribovics has also had a pretty wild ufc career. While he has not pulled off any insane upsets, both of his fights were barn burners. Ribovics is a boxer, throwing lots of straights to the head & body shots in combinations. When in the clinch he does a lot of dirty boxing & also attacks the body. His defense is pretty sloppy but he has shown he can take a punch. Ribovics main issue is his takedown defense; he cannot wrestle well at all. He has shown a very good ability to get up (except when kirk got his back round 1) but its still a big hole in his game. However, I dont think Brener is going to wrestle that much despite being the far superior grappler. On the feet i really think this is a coinflip. Both guys have shown they can stand and bang for 3 rounds without getting tired. I think I slightly lean ribovics due to his output; brener is a beast but his counter punching style often leaves him down on the strike count. Ribovics is always pushing the action and throwing a ton of combos. 



Dos Santos vs Fakhredinov  
Fakhredinov DEC 

I was expecting Rinat to get a top 15 after last time out but this is sneaky good matchmaking. Dos santos is 10-3 in the ufc but I really thought he beat both Dalby & Salikhov, making him 12-1 in the ufc in my eyes. That type of consistency in the ufc is very impressive, especially when you consider hes got wins over the likes of sean strickland & BSD throughout his ufc tenure. Its hard to find a comparison to Rinat that dos Santos has faced. I guess the closest would be akhmedov or abubakar but neither are of the same wrestling caliber as Rinat. Zaleski historically has pretty good tdd & knows how to defend well. His sprawl is especially good & he's got great hips when defending takedowns. Of course he can be taken down but not many people have tried to do it. As his nickname would suggest, dos santos brings a dynamic capoeira style to the octagon. He is a kicking master, throwing a ton of kicks from leg kicks to spinning wheel kicks. There's no wasted movements on any strike he throws & everything is thrown with power. While he is predominantly a kicker, Zaleski has hands. He mixes his boxing very smoothly with his kicks & is also a good counter puncher. With Rinat his gameplan is simple yet effective. All rinat wants to do is wrestle you. Every fight he closes the distance immediately & shoots. If he doesn’t get the first shot, hes just going to keep shooting & re-adjusting until he gets you down. He seems to have endless cardio & can grapple hard for 15 minutes no problem. We saw Michalidis give some resistance to his takedowns & Rinat would just keep scrambling and beat him to each position. I could see zaleski being able to defend /scramble out of takedowns early but I don’t think he has the gas tank to do that for 15 minutes. Once Rinat gets you down, he just smothers you & will continue to take you down should he get a hold of you. On the feet I don’t even think the gap is that wide. Obviously, zaleski has the advantage but rinat is going to take away Zaleski’s kicking range immediately. He is heavy on the lead leg so he will have to be wary of kicks but I think immediately pressuring zaleski is going to throw him off. Up close Rinat punches pretty hard as well. He throws fast 1-2’s and has a clubbing overhand. I could honestly see him hurting zaleski in an exchange; zaleski is a great striker but hes never been the strongest boxer + his chin has always been a little shaky. I would not be surprised by a rinat finish but I think he is just going to outgrapple zaleski for 15 minutes. 

* Edited at 10.22.2023, 7:45 PM ET *