UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Fan pirating fights aren't the problem why fighter aren't being paid, The fighter get paid only 13% which is approximately $9 of the $70 PPV, Dana not paying them well is the problem, Dana literlly said, No matter how well the business does, Fighter pay won't improve, Pirating fight mean Dana get paid less, Not the fighter, Fighter pay is roughly the same, No matter how well the card sells

UFC expecting fans to pay $70 an month in PPV,  and only giving 13% to the fighter is the worst thing about the fight business honestly, Especially when they sell they're right to sponsorship for pennies

* Edited at 06.04.2023, 5:21 PM ET *

Nunes vs. Aldana
Amanda Nunes, SUB, R4
I’m kinda surprised at the line tbh. Nunes isn’t what she was in that 2016-2020 stretch. But she’s better than Irene everywhere besides straight boxing. I think Nunes maintains a comfortable lead then puts on the gas in the later rounds and finds an RNC

Oliveira vs. Dariush
Beneil Dariush, DEC
I love this fight. Both guys are absolute dawgs but I think Beneil will just get the better of Charles in most of the exchanges. He won’t be afraid to grapple either which will be a problem for Do Bronx. On the feet Beneil is less technically sound but has some sickening power that will probably put Charles down at some point in the fight. Of course Charles can do the same to Beneil. Still though, I see it being a 29-28 or 30-27 for my man Dariush

* Edited at 06.04.2023, 6:12 PM ET *

Malott vs. Fugitt
Mike Malott, SUB, R1
Interesting main card placement but I’ll take it. Fugitt gets **** on quite a bit but honestly he’s not bad. Decent striking with decent grappling and a very good pace that he keeps throughout the fight. Now Malott skill wise is really good but his durability is what’s cause for concern. I still think that he will do what he pleases and eventually find a finish. I wouldn’t be shocked with an upset tho

Ige vs. Landwehr
Dan Ige, TKO, R1
I love me some Nate the Train. A true wild man in the octagon. However I think that will be his downfall here. While Ige can be tentative when he throws its heavy and fast. I think he clips Nate early and finishes the deal

Anders vs. Barriault
Marc-André Barriault, TKO, R3
This fight is mid as hell. Not sure why it’s on the main card. I think that MAB is better than Ander’s though and will probably find a finish depending on how well Ander’s cardio holds up

Imavov vs. Curtis
Nassourdine Imavov, DEC
Banger. I could see this going like the Hermansson vs Curtis fight but I think it will be closer than that though because Jack has a way better gas tank. And if Curtis manages to steal the 2nd round against Imavov I think he wins

Jasudavicius vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
One of the worst fights on the card. Only picking Maverick because Jasmine is a worse striker. The grappling is fairly even

Zahabi vs. Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng, DEC
This is an interesting one. Initially I was going with Zahabi because of how AQ looked against Perrin. But I think that AQ will make improvements and learn what not to do in those types of scenarios. It’s also a bad stylistic matchup for Zahabi as AQ loves putting on the pressure

Dvořák vs. Erceg
David Dvořák, TKO, R3
Man, I know Dvorak isn’t known for his knockouts. But I emplore you guys to watch Erceg vs Ross. That opened my eyes to some horrific striking defense showed by Erceg. Ross was clipping him with regularity and looked really solid. After the 2:30 mark it was a different story but Dvorak is a legit top 10-15 talent at 125. I think Ercegs grappling won’t get him through what will be a long night

Belbiţă vs. Oliveira
Maria Oliveira, DEC
Thankfully this fight is 1st on the card. It’s gonna be a painful watch. No clue who wins. It’s like picking cow dung or 2 year past expired milk

I think Miranda Maverick is really overrated and Jasmine is underrated tbh

I like Maverick. Her only legit UFC loss was to Blanchfield,no shame in that. The Barber fight was to keep the Barber hype train rollin. Maverick should have been more aggressive the 3rd round but she still won that fight. 

Maverick DEC

I got a feeling this card is gonna go **** for my pics

Quickcobalt   welcome to the club...

Imavov vs Curtis
Imavov DEC
one of the few good fights left on this card, and man should this one deliver. Curtis never has boring fights & he has a good dancing partner here in Imavov. I honestly love Curtis as a fighter; he never says no to any fights, and is one of the few people who have gone from journeyman to legit talent. Now don't get me wrong, Curtis will never break into the top 10 but he has evolved into an incredible fighter. He has some of the best anti wrestling at 185 & his striking has come a long way. As much as I love Curtis tho, his style is very exploitable for the best guys at 185. Curtis likes to play defense, draw you in, and then hammer you with counters. We also saw he can throw down if necessary, but he's always gonna be somewhat behind in that realm. we also saw hermansson write the blueprint to beat Curtis & I think Imavov will take that same gameplan. Now, im gonna be honest, I think Imavov is severely overrated & won't ever be a title challenger BUT he is no doubt a great fighter. I just think his cardio will never be good enough for champ level fights. for two rounds tho he is a fierce opponent. He has that funky savate style striking we see out of the mma factory. very light on his feet, kick heavy game, but also has really good hands. Imavov has improved his grappling a ton but he won't be able to implement it here since Curtis has god tier tdd. I expect this to look like the Buckley fight; Imavov will look very good in rounds 1-2. his footwork and kicks will make the difference to Curtis slick boxing & power shots. However, I have a pretty good feeling Imavov is gonna slow wayyyy down due to the pace Curtis sets & his body work and will subsequently drop round three. this is gonna get ugly as the fight goes on but I think Imavov is good enough to get the better of Curtis in the early rounds. wouldn't be totally shocked by an upset tho. especially since JRey has max bet imavov; honestly makes me want to switch my pick


Jasudavicius vs Maverick
Jasudavicius DEC
I really don't know how to feel about this fight because I don't trust either girl. Maverick shouldn't be -300 against anyone after that horrible showing against young & I just don't like jazzy j because of her inexperience. Now maverick is weird to me because I was really high on her before the maycee fight (which she totally won) but after the blanchfield fight she has not been impressive. I mean she's dominated her last two fights but those are against overmatched opponents who can't grapple. She did dominate against young, but she also looked terrible in that fight. what I mean is she made a lot of stupid mistakes & should've finished that fight on 6 different occasions. Maybe that waS just a classic WMMA moment but either way its a really bad look. To make things worse, maverick is not a good defensive wrestler. Obviously, Erin is 1000x the fighter jasmine is so getting ragdolled by her isn't the worst thing ever but maverick has shown poor tdd throughout her career. And what is jasmine best at? Wrestling. However, that's really all she's good at. She is still relatively inexperienced despite the high level wrestling background & I also don't trust her game planning. She loves to fight, but often times she allows that love to stray her away from her gameplan (which is to wrestle) and do stupid things. Being in her hometown I really worry that she's gonna come in and want to throw hands with maverick, because she won't win that. I also worry because miranda is just a better fighter everywhere outside of wrestling, but at the same I worry that her lack of wrestling could screw her here. ill probably switch back and forth on this one until fight day, but the size & wrestling advantage makes me want to pick Miranda. even if miranda wins, -300 is a ridiculously stupid line.

Zahabi vs Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng KO RD 2
I said some of my thoughts on this fighter earlier but I am really surprised the odds are so close on this fight. I mean zahabi is like a textbook nothing burger. He does legitimately nothing & plays defense the whole fight, being extremely selective with his strikes. In fact, he's pretty much just a counter striker. he stays extremely far away & waits for an opening, then throws a few low impact shots & goes back to playing defense. His grappling is actually pretty decent but he doesn't have good wrestling & most of the time just strikes. AQ on the other hand is someone I like a lot. He has a lot of raw talent and is 2-0 since moving to fight ready. That move to FR was integral because he has looked like a new man since then. Well, he's still shown a lot of things that need improvement but he has also looked wayyy better. The biggest things FR has done for AQ is forced him to fight more technical & improved his tdd. The issue AQ used to have is he gets drawn into brawls & swings wildly. Now, he does have a really bad tendency to go back to his brawler roots when he gets tired; see the Perrin fight for example. In rounds 1-2, AQ looked so sharp. He picked his shots & every time he landed he had a massive impact on jay. He did get taken down but for the most part his wrestling looked vastly improved. as the fight went on, he started to gas & lost the third because he was tired and lost the composure he was keeping early on. Now, im still not sure how his cardio is at 135 because his last fight was at elevation where everyone was dying. Regardless of if its the same or not, Zahabi doesn't fight at a high enough pace to really worry me here. I guess what I do worry about is that zahabi plays so much defense, that AQ could miss a lot and get tired quickly. Besides that, I think he is going to march down zahabi the whole fight & land bombs. Im picking ko because despite the # of decisions, AQ hits like a truck but obviously wouldn't be surprised by a decision here


Bilder vs Nelson
Bilder KO RD 3
I really don't like bilder but he has been proving me wrong since coming to the ufc. Because of the improvements he's made, I feel weirdly confident about him in this spot. His tape outside the ufc is very bad; every fight you see, he's getting his ass kicked & beaten in every aspect of mma before pulling a win out of his ass. Since, dwcs & subsequently his debut, he has looked like a totally different fighter. He has stayed super calm & shown really solid boxing technique. Even though he dropped round 2 to Shane, I was really impressed how he knew when & how to pour on the pressure in the third round. I was also impressed with his cardio since he put out a lot of volume & still didn't look tired (cardio will be key in this fight for him). His wrestling isn't amazing but he is a really solid black belt. He does a very good job of finding openings & has a creative submission game. He's not really a grappler first tho; bilder is a striker who will occasionally mix in wrestling. Nelson on the other hand is an overachiever. I don't wanna say he's improved in his time off (because he hasn't) but more so he's realized the type of fighter he is. He knows his skillset isn't up to par with the rest of the ufc & he knows that he doesn't have the best cardio so he has adapted his gameplan as such. He still can crack, but his killer instinct hasn't been there since his return & he has resorted to point fighting on the feet. Another odd wrinkle to his game is he comes in with a wrestling heavy gameplan, except he can't wrestle well at all so it ends up being a boring clinch fest. Even if the old nelson shows up & he comes out slinging heat, I still am weirdly confident in bilder despite the bad things I've seen in the past. If the old versions of these two come out, then I could see this being a classic nelson fight; he starts off hot, maybe drops Blake, then death gasses & gets slept. If we get the current versions of these two, I think bilder is the much better fighter. He is a better striker & can use his cardio as a weapon here (cardio issues have plagued nelson his whole career; he was gassed in the slow paced choi fight even). Im not sure if Blakes chin actually sucks or if that was just a string of bad luck before getting to the ufc. if nelson tries to wrestle I could see him having some success, but once it hits the ground builder will give him issues. either eway I think binder takes this pretty easily.


Dvorak vs Erceg
Dvorak DEC

interesting opponent change for Dvorak. I rate erceg as a pretty solid flyweight. He's a super tall flyweight & has a well rounded game. His standup is solid; nothing special but its just solid kickboxing technique. He has some decent power in his hands but again nothing crazy. The biggest hole in his game is his defense. Because he's so tall, he relies on his frame for defense (aka tall mans defense) & has nonexistent head movement. Despite being a really skilled fighter, I worry a lot about his lack of head movement. Like I think he could get exposed badly at the ufc level. Steve has shown he can take a punch but the UFC is not the place to test your damage threshold. Despite this glaring flaw, Erceg is a very good grappler. I really like his wrestling; he has a very good shot & level change, and if he doesn't get the takedown, he instantly swings to the back and works from there. His bjj is very good and his control is suppressive. His go to choke is the guillotine, but he's not a guillotine or bust guy at all; more so he just snatches the neck in transitions a lot. Despite all this, I think this is too much too soon. Dvorak is a weird case. he's a very solid guy but flies under the radar because he's not the most exciting. He's a bit of a nothing burger honestly; he has skills everywhere & does a little bit of everything, but he never has a performance that wows you; he just wins a fight by being better. I can't give a fully in depth breakdown because I dint watch tape on Dvorak (I just expected him to walk through schnell who isn't good) but I know he's a much better striker & has really solid grappling. I do also remember that he's very low volume & loves to lull you into his game. He should 100% win the striking since erceg is a stationary target & he is a very talented grappler so I don't see him getting subbed. should be a relatively easy win for Dvorak, but I could see it being close since Dvorak does a lot of nothing at times.

Belbita vs Oliviera
Belbita DEC 

This fight is really bad & super low level but given the styles of these two girls I actually think this could be better than we are all expecting (not very confident in this of course). The UFC did a good job on this one because these girls are almost the exact same fighter; both are lanky strikers who aren very technical & just throw out volume. Both also have horrible fight iq & can't grapple at all, so the one plus about this fight is it will be a striking match. Funny enough, both these girls had fights with GDP & they both went the same way (with differing results). both girls had a very close fight where it was volume vs effective strikes. Both these girls are long & put out a lot of volume but a lot of their shots are ineffective. Its so hard to make a pick here because both girls are honestly really bad. however, one thing I like about belbita is that she seems to be more durable. I can never get that image of Oliviera just quitting on dwcs & then she's been knocked down a few times before which leads me to believe her chin isn't the greatest & she doesn't like to be hit. This fight is gonna be super close but im leaning belbita just because its her hometown so hopefully she gets the nod from the judges should this end up being really close (im very confident this is gonna be a super close fight).

Nunes vs Aldana
NUNES SUB RD 4
Nunes fights are so much harder to call than they used to be now that she's getting older. Of course, she's the GOAT of WMMA and skill for skill still better than any woman in the ufc, but she has taken a decline (as is natural as you get older & spend a lot of time on top). I feel like she also knows she's nearing the end of her career so I do slightly question her motivation coming into this. Aldana is no joke either, well on the feet. Her actual mma game is lacking but she might be one of the best strikers in WMMA. her boxing is very good & its rare to see her koing girls the way she does. Nunes can beat her on the feet, but shes gonna face adversity if she decides to go that route. If she grapples, she will dominate. Aldana has never had good tdd & watching her get borderline 10-8 by Chiasson was extremely concerning. also if she doesn't get that fluke ko who knows how that fight is ending; she was on her back so she could've very well lost that fight. if Chiasson is ******* you up on the ground, nines is going to kill you. even washed nunes should dominate on the ground. if nines doesn't grapple or doesn't have success (id be genuinely shocked if she doesnt) then the blueprint is clear; give her hell on the feet & push her to her limits like Pena did. However, that's much easier said than done; I still think the only reason nunes lost that is because she didn't train due to Pena being a joke of a fighter.


Oliviera vs Dariush
Dariush KO RD 2
the real main event of this card. I love both guys so much & this fight is awesome because their skills compliment each other so well. Both are elite bjj guys who have fallen in love with their hands, but also don't have the best chins. On the feet, I favor Charles. Now, benny can absolutely hold his own but Charles is simply better. Charles really popularized that Brazilian Thai style of all aggression all the time. he walks you down from beginning to end throwing heat. Not only has his striking improved, but the power and accuracy he throws with is scary. Benny on the other hand has also turned into a scary striking, however he's not as athletic as Charles & has an awkward style as a result. Its very high level striking don't get me wrong but when he gets drawn into a brawl (which this fight will be) he doesn't move his head that well. The difference in chins is what will make the biggest difference tho. Beneil has the much worse chin. he's been brutally put out cold before & has never had the best reactions to shots. Charles chin isn't actually as bad as people say, its his defense. he wants you to hit him so that you follow him to the ground. he can actually take a punch, but he just has shoddy defense. he will also play possum a bit too (see gathje or dustin fights). However, the reason I think benny cruises is he has the bjj capabilities to screw over Charles. Charles is one of the best sub threats in ufc history and his bjj is incredibly elite, however when you don't show respect to his bjj he starts to fall apart. Beneil is high level enough to not get subbed & he will follow Charles down to the ground willingly. Hell, he might even wrestle charles (Bennys wrestling is actually very good). and on top benny will dominate. he's good enough that he can avoid the sub attempts of Charles & he has killer instinct so he's gonna be firing gnp the second he gets on top. we saw islam expose Charles for this & guys like Kevin Lee have had success just wrestling do bronx before. However, this is not a clear benny win by any means; Charles is very live in this fight, its just gonna have to be won on the feet. I don't see him subbing beneil & he's gonna be the one on his back the whole time so he won't win minutes. I also don't want to hear the "Charles is done" talk if he loses; he can most definitely hang with the elites he's just not champ level anymore.

Malott vs Fugitt
Malott SUB RD 1
fugitt is an overachiever. he has done shockingly well in his last three fights despite the fact that he visually looks like a bad fighter. he's got this awful stance where his chin is right up in the air, poor footwork, and weird kickboxing. nothing he lands looks effective yet he has been competitive with way better strikers. I also don't think his grappling is anything special but he fought very smart against kino****a. In fact, fugitt is a dangerous fight for up and comers because he's very good at exposing weaknesses. Against renfro he took advantage of the fact renfro is a spark plug & sent him down to 155, against Morales he took advantage of his nonexistent striking defense, and against kino****a he took advantage of his nonexistent grappling. So here the gameplan is simple, survive the first round & lets see what happens. I like mallet a lot & he honestly looks very good but there is still an endless amount of questions I have. We still have no idea what his cardio is out of round 1 (I assume he gasses out) and his chin is also really suspect. Now, is fugitt really the guy to expose mallott? honestly maybe since he fights very smart gameplans but I just don't think skill for skill he's better than mallet & therefore won't survive the first round. On the feet, mallott is a way better striker. His boxing technique is actually really clean & he hits very hard. His grappling is the best part of his game by far tho. he is so quick on the ground and so good at snatching the neck. when he locks up a sub, its pretty much game over because he has a very tight squeeze. Again, I think skill for skill this fight isn't close, but given hat fugitt is the prospect killer & malott has an endless # of unknowns I do worry slightly. of course im picking malott tho


Ige vs Landwher
Ige KO RD 1
imo the easiest outcome to predict. Ige is the definition of a gatekeeper (I don't mean that in a bad way) he's not good enough to beat the upper echelon but he smokes everyone he faces who isn't top 15 level; and as fun as Nate is, he's not close to top 15 level. For what its worth, Nate is a lot better than people give him credit for. Yes, he fights stupid and yes, he has some ****** losses but he has skills. The caveat of his style is he's a fighter first, not a winner. he's there to put on a show and make fights a crazy brawl not win them. However I don't see that style beating ige at all. Nate gets hit way too much for my liking & against someone like ige I don't see a world where he doesn't get brutally slept. he is gonna come in guns blazing & ige just has to land one counter and its lights out. I think ige is just such a better striker. I think Nates only chance at winning is by getting a finish, but even then how do you finish ige? his durability is ******* ridiculous. I have round 1 ko but I could see this getting extended & its going to be an insane fight for as long as it lasts. However, ige is gonna show levels once again


Anders vs Barriault
Barriault DEC 

I can't believe this fight is on the ppv opener instead of Curtis imavov. I get they want to promote the Canadians but cmon nobody wants to see this fight. much like the AQ fight, this is one that's lined very closely but im weirdly confident in MAB here. I just think this is the perfect style for him. Anders is on the decline (idk how people are saying he's improving) and imo was never that good to begin with. What makes him special is he's a former football player & a great athlete. He also has a ton of experience against high level guys so that's something. but if you really look into his record its not that impressive at all. he's only beating the absolute worst of the division (gm3 fight was a very bad decision). even that daukaeus fight he was behind on the strikes until the headbutt which compromised daukaeus & led to him getting slept. Anders is a decent striker with good power, but nothing that wows me. He doesn't have much wrestling, only a double leg that he uses from his football days & even then its not that good. I mean 2/23 on tds against the iron turtle is such a bad look. IN fact, that fight is why I think Anders loses this one. he couldn't get the td & death gassed to the pacing of park. And what does MAB excel at? using his cardio as a weapon. MAB is like the definition of average; doesn't excel anywhere, isnt flashy, and besides his cardio has no special qualities. But man, his cardio is something else. He always takes the first round off, then once the opponent is settled he turns it up to 10 and doesn't slow down. he thrives by making fights ugly; he loves dirty boxing and just making fights brawls. he's far from the most technical striker, but he's tough as **** and never stops throwing. I think he's gonna get Anders feeling comfortable riound1, probably get taken down a few times & get back up to gas out Anders. then round 2 he's gonna pour it on and Anders cardio is just gonna slowly fade away second by second. I wanna say I could see a tko but Anders is insanely tough so I doubt it. if he death gasses like he did against park tho he could take an ass whooping in the later round.

Better switch your Imavov pick and any bets real quick.

You know why...

oh no is jrey stanning him

I'm pretty 50-50 on that fight,  I think Nassidine should do what Jack Hermanson did but better against Curtis, Also think Nassidine cardio is bad, Not terrible,Which is more a cause of concern then a instant fade because you can win decision,I think it 8 minute at worst,

Also, With Curtis being pretty much unkillable and Nassindine being the favorite , I don't want to have to relay on Nassidine  winning 2 round with his cardio to win a bet because it such a exact way to win,

Just thinking about it, Betting this fight going to a split could be good

Max bet apparently. Better run while you can

I can tell you the last thing i'm doing is paying for PPV over in the UK when it's always 4am - 6am main event starting time and having a firestick is so easy to have. 

who pays for ppv's these days. Just get a good reliable IPTV

Oliveira vs. Dariush
Beneil Dariush, DEC
Tough fight. Really should be the main event. Dariush takes it because MMA gods think he deserves it more.

Malott vs. Fugitt
Mike Malott, TKO, R1
Malott smacks this guy easily.

Ige vs. Landwehr
Nate Landwehr, DEC
I don't care what anyone says, Landwehr is my new favorite fighter. I'd vote for him for president. He's like a loveable cartoon character.

Anders vs. Barriault
Marc-André Barriault, DEC
Early fight of the night prediction. Going with Barriault here but it could go either way.

Imavov vs. Curtis
Nassourdine Imavov, DEC
I just have an inkling that Curtis doesn't care about this fight and Imamov is still fuming over how much he got emotionally destroyed by Sean Strickland. I think Imamov pulls out a little bit of his French roots and wins in a decision, then kisses Chris slightly on the forehead. Very romantic.

Jasudavicius vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, TKO, R1
Maverick has no business fighting this girl. She is so much better. It won't even be close. KO in less than 2 minutes

Zahabi vs. Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng, DEC
Aoriqileng takes it. Mongolians are tough. Plus his photo on Tap gives me the shivers. He is just staring through my soul.

Bilder vs. Nelson
Blake Bilder, TKO, R1
With a nickname like 'the monster', I was really expecting this guy to look less like a grocery store clerk, but I guess the UFC is full of surprises. Bilder demolishes this guy.

Dvořák vs. Erceg
David Dvořák, TKO, R2
I'm surprised that Dvorak isn't a bigger favorite here. Still going with him to get some sort of redemption over this newcomer with a boring nickname. I think this fight is on the early prelims for a reason.

Belbiţă vs. Oliveira
Diana Belbiţă, DEC
Here's to the UFC for forcing us to suffer through another bottom of the pack female bout at the beginning of this event. Belbita summons Vlad the Impaler and gets a split decision win here.

@rah he said it’s somewhere in the 500 dollar range too…. 

Maybe I should switch 🤔

@duck I see it looking like imavov vs Buckley. Imavov likely styles on Curtis with the better footwork, different shot selection (Curtis is a boxer where imavov will use all available limbs to strike), and the big size advantage. Then he’s gonna slow down in round 3 due to the pace & probably lose that round as well

Imavov wins first 2.