UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Aldana is good and I think the match up will be good I’m anticipating a good fight

hope they can find a replacement for rountree

card is starting to thin

Oliveira vs. Dariush
Charles Oliveira, SUB, R2
This should be a very good fight.

What's going on with this card? 11 fights? There's only been 5 cancellations, pretty on par with modern standards. Usually they keep these cards stacked at 14 or 15 fights so that they at least hit 12-13 fights.

I assume they'll add some more last minute fights it is not a fight night after all.

I think they’ve given up on Canada. Also they’ve gotta keep some people on standby incase fights fall out for the big july cards 

Can't say I blame them if that's the case. I expend more energy watching Aimeann Zahabi fight than he expends during his average UFC fight.

Luckily he has a good dance partner in AQ so hopefully he finishes him or makes Zahabi fight a good fight 

Don't know why Zahabi is coming back so soon though, it's only been 11 months since he fought. He needs to be careful to not rush back into the octagon too soon.

He usually takes a break for 2 years between fights and here he is back in less than a year. Desperate for money? What is going on?

* Edited at 06.03.2023, 12:29 PM ET *

I guarantee you I'll  be turning this off after the co main.

I seriously have a book offering me Qileng at -126. Shouldn't he be a moderate favorite at least here, not close to a pickem? He is a lot younger with a lot more experience under his belt, literally 3 times as much with 33 pro fights to just 11 (although chinese records are always sus to be fair). To me he looks a lot better in the striking than the very passive Zahabi. Qileng closes the distance fast and throws fast from a lot of angles, targetting the low leg the head and the body all. Not sure how Zahabi's counterstriking is going to keep up with that. 
Qileng even beat Durden pretty clearly if we are to actually follow the scoring ruleset imo so held his own against a pretty legit grappler. 

Furthermore he is with Fight Ready which is just one of the best gyms out there compared to Zahabi tranining under his brother that imo is one of the most overrated MMA coaches in the UFC having struck gold with GSP and then never made any waves again. I mean alright they have Arnold Allen, I'm sure someone else I'm forgetting but Firas is constantly refered to as some MMA wizard trainer. Probably mostly Rogan hyping him up time and again.

Maybe this is just the world of early capping I've been missing out on. Not used to seeing this much value on favorites, hence I seldom bet them.

The only thing that concerns me at all here is that we're in Canada and the judges might be biased, if not on their own accord then subconsciously to the crowd cheering for Zahabi.
Aoriqileng has shown at times when he's gassed he'll just stand and slug which is pretty low fight IQ but when was the last time we saw Zahabi brawl? The guy is about as defensively minded a fighter as you can find.

I think AQ should be like -250

I think outside Canada yes, but it's a good chance this goes the distance since Zahabi never commits and I don't fully trust the judges to get it right. But -200 or so doesn't seem unreasonable.

Well I think even stylistically Aq should easily win this. Zahabi just counterstrikes & is very low power. AQ is gonna March him down and land power shots. Even visually this is an easy fight for him. Idk why it’s lined so close; Zahabi doesn’t have good wrestling to hold down AQ, he won’t crack the chin, and he doesn’t fight at a high enough pace to gas him out

Aimann reminds me of his brother dad or whatever the relation is, meaning he will point fight run away and hopefully get badly exposed.

Yes, Firas has trained Aemann to fight like he is the greatest counterstriker on earth. Never take the initiative, always stay on the outside circling and wait for the opponent to strike then counter.

Problem is he is barely UFC-level and a 35 years old bantamweight that fights once per year at best.

AQs camp Fight Ready has the complete opposite approach. Be first, throw often. Which is sound advice for 95% of fighters. How often do we see defensively good counterstrikers? Meaning they are skilled and fast enough to react to strikes and consistently dodge them and fire back before the opponent is out of reach.

Mostly when we say someone has good striking defense we mean they have their guard up and block a fair amount of shots as opposed to letting their arms hang by their sides. But to actually be a good defensive striker, to be able to sit in the pocket and avoid most shots like Dustin Poirier, is very rare.

It's much easier to get good at using your athleticism to fire off punches and kicks and be accurate enough to land. The defensive fighter is going to be at a disadvantage here in most cases. The attacker poses the question and the defender has to answer it or get hurt. The attacker risks a lot less and it looks better in the eyes of the judges. Not to mention any damaging shot will actively diminish what the defender can then fire back as the fight rolls on.

I just think Firas style of fighting should be reserved for an elite fighter. Not for his unimpressive brother. That is not even mentioning the risk of getting cut from the UFC if you aren't of special interest to them unless you win all your fights since the UFC don't like fighters that don't ever take risks to get a finish.

* Edited at 06.03.2023, 5:56 PM ET *

Nunes vs. Aldana
Irene Aldana, TKO, R3
This card is a travesty. Weirdly though, I'm looking forward to the main event. I think this is a mental battle and Aldana is coming in hungry. Nunes has struggled with in-tight brawls virtually her whole career. Sure, she slept Cyborg, but not without getting caught on the entry herself. Aldana should be able to bite down on the mouthpiece and go to war; difference being, Nunes can't take many bombs from Aldana. She has laser-precision and near perfect timing. Aldana's a consummate counter-striker and I think she can work that left hook on the chin of Nunes.

Oliveira vs. Dariush
Charles Oliveira, DEC
This is a very close fight. Dariush's striking leveled up in his last outing against Gamrot, and his scrambling abilities are probably the best in the division outside of the champ. One thing is that Oliveira's going to be pushing forward, and doing that will mitigate the risk of getting taken down or countered to hell. Dariush has power, but Oliveira has a speed advantage and he's more technically refined. Besides the head movement being an issue, I think he can take away Beneil's best tools and do the damage. Should be a good fight where Oliveira has a slight edge imo.

Malott vs. Fugitt
Mike Malott, TKO, R2
I get the whole hometown hero thing, but this takes a main card spot of Imavov-Curtis? Really? Fugitt is good, but I don't think that'll matter when Mike eventually finds his chin. It's bound to happen.

Ige vs. Landwehr
Dan Ige, TKO, R1
Landwehr is a very kill-or-be-killed guy. Ends quickly, in wacky way.

Imavov vs. Curtis
Nassourdine Imavov, DEC
This will look similar to the Jack Hermansson fight where Imavov uses all of his tools to shut down Curtis and dominate him across the boards.

Nunes vs. Aldana
Amanda Nunes, DEC
Well that was an interesting card! I did warn everyone that I thought the main event was a setup fight for Albazi to win, looks like I was right! Even though I picked Albazi, I have to agree it was a robbery (though I will take it because of all the predictions I have lost because of robberies). I hope there is enough outcry to finally do something about judges like Chris Lee, Doug Crosby and Sal D'amato. They are ruining the sport and affecting the lives of the fighters. No good. Anyway I thought I would drop my picks early for this card. This is pre-tape so I could change some and I am going from what I know of these fighters, but I think I have a pretty good read on most of the fights. Main event breakdown - Nunes wins.

Oliveira vs. Dariush
Beneil Dariush, DEC
This will be a banger. But I really feel that Oliveira has been a little exposed on how to beat him, and Dariush is definitely someone who can. Dariush can be a little chinny but Oliveira is too. Both have amazing BJJ but where Dariush will pull away is the wrestling. I think he will be the one on top landing the ground and pound and he is too good to get submitted.

Malott vs. Fugitt
Mike Malott, SUB, R2
Fugitt did well and exceeded expectations to beat Kino****a last fight, but I think Mallott will be too much. Mallot is better everywhere and I think his grappling is a level above.

Ige vs. Landwehr
Dan Ige, DEC
As much as I love Nate the Train, I think Ige is a step above his past opponents. The striking I give to Ige and the wrestling and grappling abilities should cancel each other out. Ige has really only lost to the best and I think he takes a relatively close decision here.

Anders vs. Barriault
Eryk Anders, DEC
Anders is improving, especially being at Fight Ready. He is participating in grappling contests, his striking looks better and even his cardio looks improved. While MAB will have the better cardio I think unlike Julian Marquez, Anders is not going to just shell up. I think Anders will push the wrestling, clinch and grappling and will win out a close decision.

Imavov vs. Curtis
Chris Curtis, TKO, R3
Really interesting fight. I do really like Imavov and I think he has very legit skills. However what worries me the most is his cardio. Also though he has good grappling he is not the best wrestler and this will likely play out on the feet because Curtis has such good takedown defence. So if it stays on the feet who wins? I have to give it to the better boxer with better cardio. I can see a late KO. Need to watch tape on the two Buckley fights again, but my initial lean is towards Curtis.

Jasudavicius vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Maverick is the better striker by far and a better grappler, and at least an equal wrestler. MAverick wins.

Zahabi vs. Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng, DEC
Zahabi beat Turcious last time because that was the kind of striking affair he wanted. Here I think AoriQ mixes in the wrestling and striking and wins out a decision.

Bilder vs. Nelson
Kyle Nelson, DEC
I need to watch tape on this. I remember being remarkably unimpressed with Bilders win over Shane Young, if I remember right (and I could be wrong here) he lost the first round (or was it the last?) and I was not impressed. Nelson has had a bad run for sure but his wrestling and grappling seems improved and his striking is always a threat initially. His cardio has looked better recently as well from memory. This is a fight I need to study more (and I could change my pick) but from initial thoughts I think Nelson could win

Dvořák vs. Erceg
David Dvořák, DEC
Erceg has some good wins on his record, but I think Dvorak really is one of the top fighters in the division. He should win this one.

Belbiţă vs. Oliveira
Diana Belbiţă, DEC
I think Belbita has the better striking. From what I remember she has some nice combinations and good volume. Oliveira has never been someone who impressed me. But then again I always get the first fight of the night wrong so I am sure Oliveira will win.

Sirs, I’ve watch no tape yet and this is just my first thought, so take this with a grain of salt. Part of me wants to take Fugitt, I don’t like Mallot’s striking defence and when he leaves his chin too high in the air after throwing his own, and Fugitt does have some pop behind his shots. Could be an upset, maybe. Anyone else worried about Mallot’s striking defence 

No