UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Some people here scoffed at me earlier in the thread for noting that I would've bet Elise Reed at +230. The market has now moved her to around -125. Is the market just completely wrong and 2-4 Frey with 0.61 TDs at 33% accuracy at 38 years old is absolutely guaranteed going to destroy Reed? Thoughts?

You are not wrong. Reed should win this. But WMMA 🤷‍♂️

I'm not even saying she's gonna win, just trying to understand the mindset of someone that would consider Reed at +230 a bad bet in this spot.

For the record I'm sceptical that odds even ever existed but it was claimed by someone I forget who in this thread. The highest I've seen on BestFightOdds is +150 and that's on some of the less known british books, not even something I personally had access to.

* Edited at 05.27.2023, 11:21 AM ET *

I remember that Gurams fights were kinda XD to score. 1st time I watched his fight with Gamrot I scored it for Gamer. After my bias wore off I had it Guram, watched this I think Guram got robbed, rewatched it without commentary and then I was like "Nah **** that I can't get the score right" 

The Gamrot fight I always thought Guram won even live. The Ismagulov fight I don't remember that well.

* Edited at 05.27.2023, 11:47 AM ET *

I personally don't care about odds. If I think someone wins and it's not unplayable then I bet them. And I've already bet Reed.

A winning bet is a winning bet, regardless of the odds

* Edited at 05.27.2023, 3:07 PM ET *

I've always thought and will continue to think you don't mean that in absolute terms. If I offered you 20 to 1 on Frey would you hedge your Elise Reed bet? How about 100 to 1?

A winning bet is a very profitable bet or a piss in the river, odds depending. A risk taken is a great risk or barely no risk at all. That's the spectrum.

Oh dont get me wrong. I'm not stupid. For example I knew Ya Zhi was winning yesterday at Road to UFC and I definitely would not bet him at -1000.

What I mean is that I bet in a different way. I select who I think will win and bet them. I dont care about their odds or how the line has moved. In fact if the line moves down I like it, because that usually means sharp bettors are also thinking the same. I never think "oh the line has moved this much, therefore I can't bet that person" or "I will bet this person if they reach this value". You are missing the good opportunities if you do that.

So if someone's odds are not fantastic but I think they will win, then I just parlay them with someone else who I think will win. I have never understood why people don't bet on someone they think is likely to win because the odds aren't what they expect them to be or bet a dog because the value is good, even though they don't think that person is likely to win.

And I think comparing "probability" on odds is the biggest lot of nonsense. End of the day you are comparing a made up "win probability" number against another made up number from the bookies. Which also often gets bet down if you are on the right side. I don't believe in betting on made up imaginary numbers. I bet who I think wins. 

Made a lot of money doing that. Worked for me. Though I imagine people who can't pick fights like JR would go broke doing that. So I guess it does depend on the person. That said your picks are great so I assume you would have a lot of success betting that way too. I definitely am not in the business of betting on numbers provided to me by the bookies.

* Edited at 05.27.2023, 10:05 PM ET *

I think people are being scammed. Betting on "value" and "odds". This is all controlled by the bookies and they push the narrative of lines and odds. In fact they often boost odds to tempt you to pick a losing bet and limit odds on a winning pick. Betting on odds and value loses you money in the long term in my opinion. Maybe I just think differently but I have had success doing it this way 

* Edited at 05.27.2023, 10:03 PM ET *

One thing I hear people say all the time is "Oh I liked him at +300". 

No you didn't. You just liked the +300 which is an imaginary made up number.

If you liked the fighter then you would bet him regardless of the odds. I bet fighters. Not numbers. 

If I really don't like the number or am not sure about the fighter I will pass.

* Edited at 05.27.2023, 11:14 PM ET *

Disagree, they no easy way to make money gambiling because if they’re were gambling companies wouldn’t exist because they basically become charity untill they go under, best betting advice is don’t do it unless you either really good at it or enjoy doing it 

The way the industry works is that they line fights correctly but take 5% off the payout , so whomever wins they win money 

* Edited at 05.28.2023, 2:59 AM ET *

What are we thinking is the best way to bet this one, Santos finish only? I'm not too confident to bet him finish straight, as i could see munhoz doing what he did to nate maness ( I thought he won all three rounds). He likes double legs and throughout santos whole career people get him down with double legs.Submission also a possibility for munhoz, maybe fdgtd?

you’re very mistaken on your gambling opinions. +300 is not a made up number, this number is an indication of the chance a fighter has… I’m aware you don’t know what +300 indicates in terms of chance, i’ll inform you that +300 = 25%. You mention that “if you like a fighter to win, you would bet them regardless of the line” Incorrect again, this is what squares do, people like yourself. It’s statistically proven that 98% of sports bettors are losing bettors longterm, you absolutely are within this 98%. I’m in the top 2% that are actually profitable longterm. I’m banned on multiple sportsbooks that I have posted on my instagram, I also have 15K+ youtuber subscribers with 200 UFC breakdowns, I know what i’m talking about, and this is why i’m informing you that you actually don’t know what you’re talking about. 

You make it seem like gambling = just pick the winner! sure… right… in an ideal world right? unfortunately this isn’t an ideal world, and you’re not psychic. So, if i’m correct in saying this isn’t an ideal world and you don’t have special powers, then surely all we would do is make bets based on what’s a good offer and what isn’t a good offer…. right? does this make sense to you?

if it doesn’t make sense, don’t worry, i’ve got a dummy proof example for you. 

let’s say you liked albazi to win this weekend… maybe you’ve watched albazi’s career? maybe you’ve watched kai’s career? who knows, only you know… but let’s say hey i’ll give you albazi at -400, 80% chance of winning! as a ufc fan and a gambler AND somebody who can think rationally, unless your risk management skills are literally pure garbage, you should understand that kai kara france with the experience he has…. has a better chance than 20% (+400) so, although you like albazi to win, you would say no, i understand his chances are less than 80% -400, so therefore i’ll PASS on betting his inaccurate odds, because i understand that in order to make profit longterm I cannot be giving up value to the bookmaker, i must only take their value.. which obviously albazi at -400 wouldn’t be value would it? unless you’re assuming that albazi would win 8 times out of 10 against kai? lol.. i’ve destroyed your “you’ll pick them regardless of the line” ignorance. 

now, obviously you’re not somebody who takes any profit longterm, but maybe if you read this and try to really concentrate, you’ll actually get somewhere, no need to thank me. 

oh and btw… here’s a website to help you understand the “made up numbers” https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

stopped reading at the part where you started shilling and advertising your social media and paid services


no offense but i'm 100000000000 times more profitable than you, 1000000000000 times richer than you, 100000000000 times more successful than you all in a way shorter timeframe in mma betting and i've NEVER EVER shilled a paid service, a youtube channel, an instagram page or anything of the sort

everything i've said on this site and on the discord channel is absolutely free of charge because I'm not a poor person who feels the need to shill and beg for people's subscription money, which sadly is something you feel the need to do

* Edited at 05.28.2023, 4:41 AM ET *

to further help you! 

-999000) 10/10 - we know that a 100% chance is something that actually doesn’t exist. 10/10 doesn’t exist. -999900000 is a betting line you haven’t seen pre fight, and you’ll never see that line pre fight because we know that 10/10 100/100 or even a thousand out of thousand isn’t plausible at all in 1v1 combat. If i’m right in saying nobody has a chance in winning 10/10 times at the highest level, then we’ve already begun to cap the chances someone has correctly!

-900 (9/10) - typically UFC level it’s VERY rare to cap a fighter winning 9 times out of 10, which is -900.. I think off the top of my head the closest I got to capping someone at that % was Montel Jackson recently, i capped him winning 8.5/10 vs rani, which is 85% which is -567

-400 (8/10) - I would assign this percentage to mismatches. for example, miranda maverick vs shanna young, i think it’s pretty fair to assume miranda would win that fight 8 out of 10 times, shanna done well round 1, or as well as she possible could, but then it showed to be a complete mismatch for the remaining 10 mins, so i guess the -400 (80%) price-tag would be consider mismatches. 

-300 (7.5/10) - 75% is obviously less than 80%, but it’s not far from the mismatch %, so i guess this percentage would be assigned to fighters you think do well most of the time against their opponent, but maybe you’ve noticed a couple potential weaknesses in the fighter you cap at 75% -300, although you don’t exactly assume their opponent will expose those weaknesses. 

-233 (7/10) - 70% I love capping someone’s chances at 70% and seeing their line LESS than 70%! because that’s value! i think they win 7/10 times which is 70% which is -233, but hold up! the bookie is offering me -175 RAH bro… and we know that -175 is 63.6%… that’s +6.4% of value! that’s how value works… getting a better line than what you’re capping…. 

-186 (6.5/10) 65%

-150 (6/10) 60% - when you cap a fighters chances at 60% essentially you’re siding with them slightly… for example, this weekend I actually think Zaleski wins around 60% of the time, which is interesting because the bookmaker actually opened zaleski at 60% -150… but now he’s -110? which is 52.4%, so now based on my opinion there’s atleast +7% of value here… If I cap someone’s chances at 60% obviously i’m looking for a line better than 60% right? 

-122 (5.5/10) 55% - this percentage is basically a pickem percentage, for example Jin Yu Frey vs Elise Reed… i’m actually slightly leaning towards Frey here.. I think she beats one dimensional, bad cardio, bad grappling, bad pretty much everything except taekwondo kicks elise reed. So if I slightly favour Frey at 55% which is -122, then it’s safe to say her ML at +110 which is 47.6%… again, finding myself value! 

+100 (5/10) 50% - i’m sure you know +100 = 50%. this is a coin flip, we call it a coin flip because it represents the same odds as a coin flip… 50/50… so if i say someone has a 50% chance and 50% = +100, again I want better than +100, so give me 40% +150 on a fighter i’m assuming has a 50% chance!! can you see how value works rah? can you see this brother? 

+122 4.5/10 45%
+150 4/10 40%
+186 3.5/10 35%
+233 3/10 30%
+300 2.5/10 25%
+400 2/10 20%

the aim of the game is to make bets on lines that you believe have a better chance than the implied chance (line) i can see how that would be difficult to understand, especially when you think these are made up numbers lol, but hopefully this just helps you understand the game better, and if it doesn’t, i’ll be happy to answer any of your questions. 

@baremaras - that’s fine, my comment wasn’t posted for you. 

5 bucks says your arguing with a bot..anybody got odd for that.

it's a public forum bro, no need to get upset


i think it's pretty obvious that your paid services aren't actually worth the money you're charging if you're UNIRONICALLY assigning probability percentages and looking for tiny value in the lowest skill level WMMA fight thats been booked in 2023 in Reed vs Frey and also forgetting to mention the fact that Zaleski is old as dirt without having fought in almost 2 years coming off of a PED suspension... did your "value finding system" account for those things?

* Edited at 05.28.2023, 4:57 AM ET *

@baremaras - they’re examples… zaleski has also had multiple knee injuries too along with the layoff due to usada, i still think he deserves a 60% pricetag over a 52% pricetag.. what do you cap the fight at? 

If you were making real money, you wouldn't be on here arguing with people you don't know getting upset. It's going to be okay guys, noone has the perfect betting system.