UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Holy **** balls..but your not wrong :>! 

Dern vs. Hill
Mackenzie Dern, SUB, R2
I think Angela Hill isa

What I meant to say is I think Angela Hill is a good person, but that doesn't mean that she will win this fight.

I'm going to bet Shahbazyan here, the only question that I've been figuring out for the last few hours of capping is how much will I bet.
The line is outrageously tilted toward Fluffy over where I believe it should be but at the same time Edmen has not been a reliable fighter up until this point.
However that I'm going to bet him as a big dog in this spot is beyond a shadow of a doubt.

That right feels more like a pick ‘em to me. -320 fluffy is hinestly criminal. I get he’s good & a nightmare matchup for Edmen, but he almost gets ko’ed in literally every fight. Edmen is extremely live for a ko in round 1

This flight is rescheduled to July 1st

Dern vs. Hill
Mackenzie Dern, SUB, R2
Hill can out point her if she can keep it standing but I don't see it happening over the course of an entire fight, and I don't think she has anything in her striking arsenal to finish Dern. Even if Dern has to eat some shots I think she's the bigger girl and she will just find a way to smother Hill and get her down and submit her. Hill can do some damage, but I think her getting taken down is inevitable in this fight.

Fialho vs. Buckley
Andre Fialho, TKO, R2
I think Fialho is more technical and I'm going to lean on skill over power in this one. But if Buckley touches him he's probably out for a while lol

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Michael Johnson, TKO, R2
I think Johnson still has deadly hand speed and it will shine in this fight. I also think his take down defense will hold up.

Hooper vs. Fiore
Chase Hooper, SUB, R2
looks like they are trying to give Hooper a free UFC win

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Takashi Sato, TKO, R1
hoping Sato's chin isn't gone

Dern vs. Hill
Angela Hill, DEC
If Dern had better takedowns I definitely pick her but her wrestling sucks which is Hills biggest weakness. Hill is much better on the feet

Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez, SUB, R3
Originally thought this would be an easy pick but Edmen can definitely get a first round finish so I'm staying away from betting on Hernandez. If this fights makes it out of the first round it's over for Edmen

Ducote vs. Godinez
Emily Ducote, DEC
I wanna pick loopy but she's terrible when he fights on short notice.

Fialho vs. Buckley
Joaquin Buckley, TKO, R2
Fialho is a walking punching bag. I don't really trust Buckleys chin especially cutting down to welterweight but he has tremendous power and fialho walks forward with 0 head movement

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Diego Ferreira, SUB, R1
Johnson always fights to the level of his opponents good or bad but he struggles against high level grapplers.

Maheshate vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, DEC
Slava is the better striker in a mostly stand up fight. I don't think Maheshate has good enough wrestling to win

Kowalkiewicz vs. Demopoulos
Vanessa Demopoulos, DEC
This fight means nothing. Going underdog

Cosce vs. Urbina
Gilbert Urbina, DEC
Both trash but I always fade the cosce brothers

Latifi vs. Nascimento
Rodrigo Nascimento, DEC
Going with the younger more improving fighter

Hooper vs. Fiore
Nick Fiore, TKO, R1
I can't believe the majority are going with Hooper. He's ******* terrible. Fiore made it somewhat competitive on short notice against rebecki

Leonardo vs. Silva
Natália Silva, TKO, R2
Complete mismatch. Silva is top 5 talent wise & Leonardo is trash

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Themba Gorimbo, SUB, R2
Sato has terrible grappling defense

* Edited at 05.13.2023, 6:13 PM ET *

Dern vs. Hill
Mackenzie Dern, SUB
Dern via Sub. She’s due for a submission win.

Hooper vs. Fiore
Nick Fiore, DEC
Fiore DEC. Never heard of Fiore but Hopper is really bad, doesn’t move his head.

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Takashi Sato, DEC
definition of a mid off here. You've got trash vs garbage, however I think sato is better (slightly). my issue with sato is he is too basic. Now the basics are fine, but he has nothing else. He is from the Henri Hooft school of KISS (keep it simple stupid), but he has no variation. on the feet he only throws straight punches & his best weapon is his 1-2. his 1-2 is actually pretty powerful & he throws it straight down the middle. he will mix in some leg kicks occasionally as well. the worst part of sato's game is his wrestling. Now, he has a judo background, so sometimes he's able to defend, but when someone reshoots or cuts angles, he's falling right down on his back. To make matters worse, he has almost nonexistent bjj. I will never understand how he survived being backpacked by Gunnar nelson for three rounds, yet gets subbed instantly by belal. Now, however bad sato may be, I genuinely think gorimbo is worse. Diversity hires are never a good thing anyways, but in mma they are really really bad. I don't know how Jason house managed to convince dana to sign this guy because he is just plain awful. For his good qualities, ill say that he's lanky and has a long reach. For his bad qualities... oh boy where to start.

Maheshate vs Borschev  Borschev KO RD 2
I love this fight; such good matchmaking. Both guys are great strikers with poor ground games, so they will compliment each other well. Maheshate is someone i like a lot. Hes a tall and dynamic striker with a lot of power. I love his willingness to get into firefights and i really like his composure when facing adversity. One thing i dont like about him is his tall mans defense. He is there to get hit but hes got good recovery and shells up well. He will also fireback when getting pressured. Slava ont he other hand is a fantastic striker with the worst wrestling ever. Everyone tries to take down slava because his hands are lethal. He is a very disciplined striker and hits hard as ****. His best weapon is his body shots. Much like Maheshate, im not a fan of slava’s defense either. I dont think hes as accustomed to fighting in 4oz gloves, so his defense is lacking. However, as much as i like maheshate, i dont see many people outside of the top 25 beating slava in a pure striking match. Im also rooting for slava because it would suck to see him lose his job; hes very fun

Kowalkewicz vs Demopolous  Demopolous DEC 
This fight really just speaks to how bad the womens divisions are; the winner of this fight gets ranked and yet both girls are not top 15 level at all. Well, maybe karolina was 6 years ago, but this is not 2017. I was actually amazed the ufc kept her around after dropping 5 in a row. Shes got a winstreak going, but that consists of wins over the ghost of herrig & a razor close fight (that i thought she lost) vs gomez juarez who is also not ufc level. Now vanessa on the other hand, i just do not get. She was always an overachiever (imo) but she then weirdly left fight ready to factoryX. I really hate that move. Fight ready was causing her to improve tenfold & she up and left them due to a change in management. ONe thing fight ready helped her with was gameplanning; they made her fight like less of an idiot. Now at another gym with significantly worse coaching (facx is still good but not nearly on FR’s level) so idk how shes gonna look. On the feet, KK is the much more experienced striker & has higher output, but the current day KK hates to get punched. Vanessa on the other hand has improved her striking a lot. She was never that good, but learned how to fight aggressive. KK has now turned into a grappler & i really have a hard time seeing her outgrapple vanessa. Vanessa does do stupid things like lie on her back, but her guard is very dangerous. I think she otugrapples kk in a very dull fight 

Cosce vs Urbina  Urbina DEC 
I honestly really dont know where to go with this one. Both guys do not belong on the ufc roster & both hardly fight so its really difficult to know where theyre at. Starting with cosce, i am sooo unimpressed with him. He is unatheletic and lazy. Watching his striking is painful. He is a stationary target & throws these ugly looping shots. It really looks like hes drunk when he tries to strike. I will say, he does at least have power, but thats about it. His wrestling is decent but nothing to call home about. Urbina on the other hand i really have no idea what to think. Hes only in the ufc because the ufc likes the family (history of urbinas on TUF). Now watching his tape, i honestly think hes a better fighter pretty much everywhere. His striking is much cleaner; he throws a variance of strikes from kicks to knees & has serviceable grappling. My issue with him is the striking defense, the takedown defense, and the cardio. He just walks forward like an idiot with his chin in the air. Now, i dont really know if cosce can take advantage because hes such a **** striker but at the same time watching urbina just walk right into the power shots of gore was just painful to watch. Similarly, a gust of wind could knock urbina over. I havent seen any bjj from cosce so i think urbina is safe on the ground (in fact, he was able to survive sean brady on the ground so i think hes ok) but my main worry is does he get up if taken down. Finally, both guys have dog**** cardio. I ahve to give the advantage to cosce because every urbina fight i see he just death gasses after 1.5 rounds. For a pick, i have to lean urbina just because i think hes a better fighter, but its hard to know what his motivation is. Hes a ghost on social media so i dont know what hes up to, and im pretty sure he just trains with his brothers in some local gym. The activity is what really concerns me. He fights like once every 2 years & looks worse each time. He looked quite decent in the brady fight, then dog**** at the tuf house & final. He gave battle hell then death gassed and quit. Ill probably weight till weigh ins before i settle on a final pick 




Latifi vs nascimento  Nasicmento KO RD 1 
In a fight like this, theres really only one way you can go, and thats nascimento. I really dont know how anyone is picking ilir here. To kick things off, i couldve sworn he retired after his last fight & he made it seem pretty clear he was done fighting. Now that hes back, whats his motivation? Does he actually want to win the fight or is he just fighting out his contract? Furthermore, he has seen his best days. Ilir is a 205er who does want to cut weight anymore & man has he looked bad recently. He only wins fights byb wrestling and nothing else. On the feet, he throws maybe 1 strike per round and look just plain awful on the feet. Watching that oleinik fight was actually cringeworthy; he was timid and scared to throw against geriatric oleinik, who may have been the worst striker at 265 at the time. As for his grappling, he used to be really scary on the ground, but the ilir of today just lies on top of you doing 0 damage. Now, despite being a grappler, i have a sneaking suspicion nascimento is a fish out of water on his back & doesnt get up when you take him down. That is my only worry here. Otherwise, i expect him to just cook ilir on the feet. Now, nasicmento is far from a good striker, but all he has to do is throw some volume & he wins easily. Ilir is not a good striker & hates getting hit. Not to mention nasicmento is a big hw where ilir is a fat lhw. I think nasicmento smokes him on the feet, but it is hw so who knows. I just cant pick ilir against anyone whos not 40+ and almost retired at this point 


Hooper vs Fiore  Fiore DEC 
Man what an ugly fight we have here. Two guys who are way too green for the ufc, likely fighting for their job. Hooper has been such a disappointment. He hasnt evolved really at all. We all thought he turned a corner in the colares fight (where he legitimately looked great) annnd then showed us hes still the same guy against garcia. Hooper is just a bjj nerd with the body of a pre teen. He has had 0 evolution throughout the ufc & hasnt grown into his frame like everyone has said. Thats the main reason why i think the 155 move is just ******* stupid. The issue wasnt the weight class, its hoopers lack of striking and muscle. If he was getting bullied by featherweights, what difference is there gonna be up a weight class? Especially 155, where the average amount of weight cut by people like 30-35 lbs. Now on the other hand, weve got fiore. Now, i have a little bit of bias as he is a NEC guy, but fiore is a talented guy who got to the ufc way too early. He had faced little resistance against bums and barely been tested. Even watching the rebecki fight you could just see he had no idea what he was doing. He showed some counter striking, but was too scared by the constant pressure of rebecki. In fact, its hard to really get any read on fiore other than hes a tough sob with a bjj black belt. The reason for this is the only footage you can find is from old ammy fights, or his fight against jay ellis, which tells you nothing about his skillset. However, training at NEC, being a black belt from a gracie school, and being an actual lightweight is enough for me to pick hooper. I think fiore can survive whatever chase has to offer on the ground & will probably let his hands go a little more since chase has amateur level striking with 0 power or muscle. 

Victoria leonardo vs Natalia Silva  Silva KO RD 1
This is about as big of a mismatch as you can get in the ufc (outside of arman vs silva). Youve got one of the best prospects in wmma vs one of the worst fighters on the entire roster. Leonardo is just simply awful. Shes a soccer mom that happened to pick up the sport during a cardio kickboxing class. Shes not an athlete, and i dont think she grew up doing any combat sports. The only way shes won fights at the ufc level was against girls who cant grapple. She was never supposed to be in the ufc in the first place but she fought a kickboxer with no grappling. Now, im sure this is the last fight on her contract & the ufc wants to make sure shes gone. Thats the only reason i can glean from this matchup being made. Natlia silva is just a phenom. Her regional tape was not good, but those three years off clearly changed her. In that time, shes developed an intense taekwondo striking style. She hits insanely hard and has very powerful kicks. Her striking is just ferocious; watching what she did in her last two is something you dont see from most girls at the ufc level. Leonardo wont be able to win this fight because shes not taking silva down either. Silva already defended takedowns from two very good wrestlers, so i doubt leonardo has any success. Even if she somehow does (by some fluke) silva will just sub her off of her back. This is quite literally silva by however she wants. Its rare to say theres a lock in wmma, but this is as big of a lock as it gets. 

Sato vs gorimbo  Sato DEC 
definition of a mid off here. You've got trash vs garbage, however I think sato is better (slightly). my issue with sato is he is too basic. Now the basics are fine, but he has nothing else. He is from the Henri Hooft school of KISS (keep it simple stupid), but he has no variation. on the feet he only throws straight punches & his best weapon is his 1-2. his 1-2 is actually pretty powerful & he throws it straight down the middle. he will mix in some leg kicks occasionally as well. the worst part of sato's game is his wrestling. Now, he has a judo background, so sometimes he's able to defend, but when someone reshoots or cuts angles, he's falling right down on his back. To make matters worse, he has almost nonexistent bjj. I will never understand how he survived being backpacked by Gunnar nelson for three rounds, yet gets subbed instantly by belal and baeza. Now, however bad sato may be, I genuinely think gorimbo is worse. Diversity hires are never a good thing as it is, but in mma they are really really bad. I don't know how Jason house managed to convince dana to sign this guy because he is just plain awful. For his good qualities, ill say that he's lanky and has a long reach. For his bad qualities... oh boy where to start. His striking is pretty bad; he doesn't know how to use his reach and he has ****** defense. Just about every fight I watch him gets chinned. Despite having a large frame, he tries to grapple pretty much every fight. Now, sato vs a grappler i would call the grappler a lock, but gorimbo is a ****** grappler too. He tries to use bjj, but i think his knowledge is pretty limited & he makes constant mistakes on the ground. I also am not sure if his wrestling is good enough to takedown sato, and thats saying something. Im not confident in sato, but i will never pick gorimbo to win a ufc fight. Hes utter garbage 

Hill vs Dern  Hill DEC 
Ive already said my piece on this fight last week & in this thread already so ill keep it short (or try to lol). Dern has incredibly elite bjj, but nothing else. IN fact, she hasnt improved one bit since coming into the ufc. She cannot strike & cannot wrestle whatsoever. I wish she would just pull guard more (see round 2 of the torres fight) because her wrestling is just simply not good. Mma math says dern should beat hill since she got dogwalked by virna, but the difference there was virna has improved her wrestling tenfold & would also pull guard or a sub attempt if she couldnt get the takedown. If dern doesn get this to the ground, hill is gonna light her tf up. The difference between hill & derns other oppoennts is the volume. Hill is a volume machine & against someone like dern with little to no striking, i think shes gonna put on a striking masterclass. However, if dern has made any improvements, she should win. I just dont think she has the wrestling. Hill has legitimately very good tdd, where derns last three oppoennts have not. Also, shes on a three fight L streak, that torres fight was a total robbery.

Shahbazyan vs Hernandez  Shahbazyan KO RD 1 
This is the parlay buster of this week. So, i totally understand why hernandez is the favorite (asnd rightfully so) but -300 is criminal. Fluffy is a fantastic fighter & a nightmare stylistically for edmen, but he can very well lose this fight, heres why. So fluffy likes to break you with his pace. He gets right in your face instantly & tries to create a brawl, then grinds you out with his wrestling. He has never ending cardio & pushes just an insane pace. Now, that sounds like edmen has 0 chance because he has **** cardio & outside of the first cant defend takedowns at all, but on the feet i think its actually edmen all day. Now, fluffy is not going to give edmen the technical striking battle that he wants, but what he does do is give edmen a stationary target to hit. In almost every fluffy fight, he gets hurt badly, specifically the body. Edmen is not someone you want to be hittable against at all. I know hes a busted prospect, but hes still got lethal power. What i really liked from him in his comeback fight was the body kicks. Fluffy’s biggest weakness is his body. Its really weak & he hates getting hit there. Both of his losses have started with him getting hit in the body & hes been hurt there in other fights as well. Also honestly, edmens tdd looks really good in the first round. He will gas if he gets pushed hard enough but when hes fresh he does really well defending. I hate to bring up training but one thing i actually think will help edmen is his sparring sessions with strickland. Strickland is a menace to spar with and doesnt step off of the gas once. Not only should that help edmens cardio, but that in-your-fafce, wont-****-off style of strickland could be really beneficial for edmen given that fluffy is all aggression all the time. If edmen doesnt get the finish early, he will 100% gas and get finished. However, i think this could be a repeat of battle vs green from today. Fluffy gets right in his face, but leaves himself open to get hit & edmen sleeps him. Im willing to take a risk here because im not 100% sold on fluffy just yet. His cardio and pace is very impressive but hes still quite sloppy & not ready for top 15 yet imo.

Ducote vs Godinez  Ducote DEC 
Its funny because i think godinez is the better fighter, but i HATE godinez on short notice. Idk why she takes all these short notice fights; sure, the ufc loves it & it gets her paid, but she is a totally different fighter without a camp. Without a camp, she has no gameplan & her wrestling honestly looks bad. Actually, i think he wrestling in general is overrated. She ragdolled carnelossi (36% tdd btw) and lookboonme (muay thai fighter) but who else has she wrestled? I dont think shes had much success outside of those two fights. Another thing too is i dont think shes made any improvements since the hill fight. Her fight with washed calvillio was shockingly close & even there she couldnt take her down. Now, her striking is definitely solid, but more technical girls will beat her every time. I think ducote is underrated. Yes, her last performance was awful, but hill did quite literally the exact same thing to loopy so…. Yeah. the stats make it seem one sided (and it was) but watching that fight it wasnt as bad as it looks. Ducote looked the part, she just couldnt get off her bike & hill never let her find her range. What i like about ducote (in her other fights) is consistency. I know what im getting with her everytime; great tdd, great jab, and lots of low kicks. And guess what? Thats exactly what was giving loopy trouble in her last fight. She made the right adjustments, but the fight was close because of calvillo using the jab and low kick to set the pace. I really strongly dislike loopy on short notice, and i dont think she will have wrestling success here. 

Fialho vs Buckley  Buckley KO RD 2 
Another fantastic fight right here. Much like slava vs maheshate, this is great matchmaking for both guys. Buckley to WW is actually a good move. He was always undersized at the weight class & i think 170 will compliment his skills a lot better. Now, i never like to see a guy who gets koed a lot go down, but buckley is an odd case. Hes not really chinny and can take a punch, but he just has **** defense; its weird. Not that it will mater here, but i think his tdd is gonna be even better at 170. Buckley isnt the world best striker but hes athletic, dynamic, and hits hard which carries him a long way. Fialho on the other hand just pains me. His fight against pereiera fooled me into thinking he had improved but nope, hes the same exact guy he was 2-3 years ago. Much like his teammate sato, fialho is all about the basics and nothing else. Hes a boxer with good power and okay defense, and thats where the good qualities end. After round 1, fialho turns into one of the worst fighters in the ufc. His cardio completely falls off of a cliff & he becomes a punching bag. When i saw he throws no output i genuinely mean it. Watching his last fight was honestly painful, he just let salikhov beat the **** out of him. This will be a great striking battle in the first, then in the second fialho will just die and buckley is gonna finish him. Buckley is my most confident pick this card. 


Johnson vs Ferriera  Ferriera SUB RD 1 
I love everything about this fight. I wanted to see this fight after johnson lost to mullarkey and now the ufc has actually booked it. Johnson is such a weird fighter. Sometimes he looks like a god and other times the worst fighter in the ufc. As of late, hes found a patch of consistency (well, as consistent as MJ can be). At his best, johnson is a sick boxer with super fast hands. His footwork is pretty good and when he gets going, he is really hard to outstrike. His tdd is also good. However, what i think johnsons issue is, is he has mental lapses in the cage. What i mean by this is he will start off hot, get into his rhythm & build a lead, then take the foot off the gas and start to fall behind. For example, he will find his groove striking & then he becomes flatfooted and gets hit with a big shot. Same goes witgh his tdd. His defense looks fantastic, then he makes one mistake & gets taken down. Then on the other hand we have CDF. CDF is one of my favorite fighters & in his prime, i thought he was one of the dark horses of 155. Now on paper it looks like deigo is in awful form; hes losing fights, pushing 40, and starting to get finished in every fight. BUT, if you look into his fights, you will see hes having very competitive & insanely high paced fights with top contenders at 155. Diegos hands are just as clean as johnsons, just not as fast. He also throws a lot more kicks. His grappling is a thing of beauty. Diego is a 2nd degree black belt & not scared at all of pulling guard to get the fight down. Watching his scmrables against gamrot and gregor was some of the best grappling ive ever seen in mma. So this fight comes down to is diego washed or not? I can see a world where johnson avoids the grappling and lights him up on the feet, but i can also very clearly see diego just pulling guard and subbing johnson out of nowhere. Thats one thing thats always consistent with johnson; his bjj is and has always been dog****. If diego was looking bad in his fights, i would pick johnson no question. BUt all of diegos fights have been super competitive & against wayyyy better competition than johnson. Give me diego here 

Dern vs. Hill
Angela Hill, DEC
Dern's takedown accuracy is atrocious, and I just don't see her being able to enter grappling range at a high enough frequency to take the back and essentially finish each round early. I do see her taking a round or two, but for the most part, I just see Hill keeping her at bay and piecing her up.

Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez
Edmen Shahbazyan, TKO, R2
A little risky here. It is very possible that Hernandez puts him in crucifix and pounds him away, but I'm going out on a limb and saying Edmen's improved enough to use his superior angles on the feet and eventually put Fluffy away.

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Michael Johnson, DEC
This should've happened a long time ago, but it doesn't feel all that weird that it's happening now. I think Diego Ferreira, both at their best, is a much better fighter than MJ all-round. But right now? The injuries are evident. I think MJ can take a split on this.

Leonardo vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
Silva's an absolute prospect. I don't say this too often, but I'm stoked to see how far she can go at 125.

* Edited at 05.14.2023, 2:23 AM ET *

Chase Hooper and Nick Fiore (Fury to american commentators apparently) is an interesting matchup. I think the UFC is trying to help Hooper here. It's a small cage and Fiore is a Renzo Gracie black belt from the New England Cartel that might just choose to grapple. What I've seen of his striking is of a strangely low level given that he trains with people like Kattar and Font. He didn't jab at all vs Rebecki in his debut for example and was throwing a lot of lead elbows with no setup.

That said, Hooper is probably the most soy guy on the entire UFC roster and his striking is just atrociously bad. I have to assume Fiore will have the advantage there. Also it's a LW fight which Hooper did fight in some in 2017 and 2018, but I assume he just didn't cut weight at that age given what we know of his physique. 
Fiore has fought at catchweight of 160 and 165 and once at welterweight and is 25 years old where Hooper is 23 (with the body development of a teenager last we saw) so he should have the size advantage here.

I do think that the fact it's a small cage and Hooper probably being the better grappler will aid him though. Fiore looked awful from the bottom against Rebecki, at no point did he do anything except close guard and try to hold on, he looked like he had 0 game there.
Still, I don't know that I can back Hooper after how he's looked in his last couple of fights, especially going up a weight class. He was already too weak for the featherweights he fought.
If Hooper suddenly shows up to the weigh ins looking like Thor I might change my pick here but for now it's a hesitant Fiore for me.

* Edited at 05.14.2023, 3:47 AM ET *

@****les usually the more downvotes you get, the more correct you are🤣 I just take it as a sign my breakdowns are spot on & it angered some of my enemies 

* Edited at 05.14.2023, 8:40 AM ET *

@gilese I’ve seen videos of him in the gym. He’s weightlifting, but doesn’t look like he’s gained any muscle. He needs to do steroids if he wants to compete with the guys at 155. He just doesn’t have the body composition to fight 

As long as Lupita Godinez face is periodically on TV, Robin Williams may he rest in peace will not be forgotten.