UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Pitter-Patterson has a lot of holes in his game but I think this is a setup fight for him. He's certainly beaten several fighters that are a step above Huberman Jr.
I'll take him by first round sub, he's good at snatching necks defensively in the grappling, particularly against shorter guys and there should be an 8 inch height difference here. Tap and contender series says he's 6'3 but he's 193 cm which is 6'4. Ashmoz is claimed to be 5'9 but he looks 5'7-5'8 at the most to me so that's 8 inches.

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R2
Easy win

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R1
Easy win

Nothing about ashmoz really impresses me. He’s solid everywhere but doesn’t wow me anywhere. Pattersons striking defense is awful but I don’t really think a 5”7 guy is gonna be the one to expose him (like Gilese said, when you watch him fight, he really looks like 5”6-5”7) 

* Edited at 03.14.2023, 6:19 PM ET *

To the guys betting Dolidze.. Consider playing his decision no bet prop. It's essentially a free -115 play as Vettori is a proven decision-ator.

* Edited at 03.14.2023, 6:25 PM ET *

Edwards vs. Usman III
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Usman will revenge Leon 50-45

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, DEC
Two warriors but Fiziev will win close dec.

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R2
Nelson will find way to RNC

Maia vs. O'Neill
Casey O'Neill, TKO, R2
King so good

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
Vettori too much for Dolidze

Shore vs. Amirkhani
Jack Shore, SUB, R3
Jack more gas tank

Duncan vs. Morales
Omar Morales, DEC
Omar better

Patterson vs. Ashmoz
Sam Patterson, SUB, R1
Sam Sub for Sure

Mokaev vs. Filho
Muhammad Mokaev, DEC
MOKAEV will dominate

Murphy vs. Santos
Lerone Murphy, DEC
VERY FUN FIGHT

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R1
CLD KO FOR SURE

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, DEC
Hadley win

Wood vs. Carolina
Joanne Wood, DEC
very close fight

Herbert vs. Klein
Ľudovít Klein, DEC
Klein take down and top control

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, DEC
Easy for Miller

I know this will be an unpopular opinion as Duncan is kinda ****, but I think there's value in his dec no bet prop as well (-150) unless you think Morales gets a finish (which he hasn't done since 2019).

Ashmoz is training at k dojo which is full of Russian/ Dagestani wrestlers. One of the more notable fighters currently at this gym is Azamat Murzakanov, also k dojo was one of khabib first gym when coming to America. This match up is super interesting because you have Patterson,who will want to fight at range and use his jab, and will use his footwork to keep it at distance, but like you said rusty, Patterson leaves so much opening to be hit, especially that right side. The one thing I hate the most with his defence is how he exits the pocket with his hands to his chest. Ashmoz is an unknown fighter, but has good grappling, and even better ground and pound. He looks for body locks and trips to get you to the mat and has good top control. The one thing I found interesting is that he stands/sits in full guard when on top landing gnp, he will have to be aware of Patterson submission and scrambles. Ashmoz striking isn’t the greatest but it is all to break the range to begin his grappling, he really likes to fight in a phone booth with a lot of pressure, the complete opposite of Patterson. He main weapons when striking is his hooks, a shot that Patterson seems to be hit by a lot. If Patterson wants to win I think he needs to keep this fight at distance and pick him apart. Ashmoz needs to do the opposite and make this fight ugly. Imo very winnable fight for both men. Great fight 

that's a good tip (decision no action bet for dodlize). I'm leaning vettori but not betting on that fight. dodlize explosive but if vettori starts pounding away, might see a finish 

Herbert vs. Klein
Ľudovít Klein, DEC
Big step up for Klein. Ive liked his style early on, but this one is going to be a tough ask. Jai

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, SUB, R2
Will be an interesting round 1 if it stays standing. After that its most likely Millers fight. Wondering if Hardy has cleaned up her striking and is more composed, if so this will be a good fight for wmma

I know Dolidze took the fight on short notice but his striking looked horrible during the Hermansson fight he basically only won because Jack went for a takedown, and Vettori was able to easily outstrike and defend every one of Jacks's takedowns in their fight so as long as Vettoris fight low iq doesn't show itself again he got this

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
Tough fight to pick siding with Vettori here although I don’t think Vettori is that great his IQ is low and that worries me against such a world class bjj killer in Dolidze I just think if Vettori can keep this fight stand witch I think he can Roman doesn’t have the best takedowns he

Barberena was gonna retire if he lost that fight to Matt Brown but Dana gave him a NEW contract after that fight which im thinking is for 3 more fights. Meaning this will be his last fight on his contract and hes retiring. And im sure we all know when a fighter is gonna retire they MOST of the time if not all the time gets finished. So do you think its a really high chance gunnar gets the sub???

Italians have always been chinny in the UFC and Marvin Vettori’s time is coming soon I think Marvin gets pushed up against the fence after his takdown gets defended and good slugfest will happen and one of them gets ko’d im picking Dolidze to get this upset by ko again but whoever Dolidze fights after vettori he loses. Every keeps counting him out and when he makes people a believer thats when he will let us down lol ROMAN by KO

Edwards vs. Usman III
Kamaru Usman, DEC
pass

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, TKO, R3
pass

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R2
pass

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
pass

Shore vs. Amirkhani
Jack Shore, SUB, R3
pass

Patterson vs. Ashmoz
Sam Patterson, SUB, R3
pass

Mokaev vs. Filho
Muhammad Mokaev, DEC
pass

Murphy vs. Santos
Lerone Murphy, DEC
play

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, SUB, R1
pass

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R1
I don’t think Duskos chin will last long . Duncan will be a fade down the track but Dusko Chin I just can’t pick him

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, SUB, R2
Hadley should be good enough on the ground here younger by 10 year I think we can. Forgive the nassimento fight after we have seen how good that guy actually is . Gordon has shown a willingness to play in guards and it’s just to dangerous here

Wood vs. Carolina
Joanne Wood, DEC
Both terrible fighters im siding with the 29 year old with the reach advantage Woods last win was 2 years ago and before that it her last win came 4 years ago in a split decison over Andrea Lee

Herbert vs. Klein
Jai Herbert, TKO, R1
Havnt done much tape on this fight and really can’t be ****** won’t be betting this fight only reason I haven’t gone back and done tape but I’m picking Jai Klein isn’t that impressive and Jais reach advantage is ******* huge we have seen he can clip anyone but has a avg chin I think when we see these to on the scales 5”7 Vs 6”1 is going to look crazy . Jai clips Himj

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, SUB, R2
Both trash Miller could get clipped rushing foward like a spaz but hardy hasn’t looked good in a single fight and gets finished often it’s been almost 3 years since we last seen her I think she gets finished in this one even tho miller isn’t any good

Anyone else think that Maia is going to humble O'Neill? She's a tough veteran that only loses to the elite, and this matchup is a big step up for O'Neill especially since she's coming off an ACL injury. I think that she has great grappling, but we have to remember that Maia is a pretty damn good grappler herself and held her own on the feet against Shevchenko and Fiorot. 

Also a lot of good dogs on this card. Starting with Leon, I think the altitude of Salt Lake City played a factor for both fighters in that fight, and I personally think that Leon is skill for skill a better MMA fighter than Usman when they are both fresh. Jai Herbert is also a good dog even tho he looked dog**** in his last fight (he still won). Dolidze probably has the best BJJ in the middleweight rankings right now, and Vettori is more of a wrestler with decent boxing. The Chris Duncan vs Omar Morales fight is not worth betting, but they both are dog****, so you might as well pick the dog in that fight.