UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Edwards vs. Usman III
Leon Edwards, DEC
Ok guys, hope you have all been well. I have been absent for a while because of personal stuff but I am back and going to be doing this every week. Going to make this year a good one and I am restarting betting on MMA because I have figured out my strategy again. I really like this card for betting and I am confident about my picks. Still have some tape study to do so may change one or two but I don't think I will be changing much. Main card breakdowns first. I know a lot of people will be picking Usman. And I get it. He was winning till he lost. But he did lose, and badly. I am not sure at his age he will recover from that kind of blow to his chin and his confidence. A lot of his game dependend on being able to go forward and clinch and know he can't be hurt doing that. I think the way he lost is going to play with his confidence and he is going to try and get in close and keep it close and tight against the cage. Now this is where it gets interesting. If you remember Leon won the first round and in fact probably out grappled Usman. And then in his own words "he didn't know what happened to him, he just slowed down" after that he was pretty much fighting to survive. I think it was one of two things, possibly both. The altitude at Salt Lake City or an adrenaline dump. Neither are going to affect him this time and if he fights like he did in round 1 he can easily win 3 rounds. Usman is not getting a finish. The other factor that I think will play in is that as I mentioned before Usman will try and keep it close and clinch. And that may be a big big mistake, because Leon has some of the nastiest clinch strikes and elbows in the game. I think Usman is on the decline, and also had issues with his hand. Add that to his knees and his new found mortality and I think Leon wins a clear decision. Easy bet for me.

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Justin Gaethje, DEC
Again, I think there are 2 themes to this card that the UFC want to happen. A spot light for UK fighters, who I am not always high on, and a culling of the old guard and prospects being fed to fighters on the decline. And very sadly I think that is what Gaethje is now. He is getting more hittable, getting rocked more, and collecting more damage every fight. Fiziev will be faster, more precise and be able to counter Gaethje's leg kicks. I think he can also out wrestle Gaethje who really is not a wrestler any more. I think Fiziev could finish him late but more likely win a clear cut decision.

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R2
I am still not sure what to make of Gunnar. He did not impress me as much as I wanted him to on his return fight after a long layoff against a fighter who has no grappling. Again he is being fed another fighter who has poor grappling defence. The main difference here is that if Gunnar who does not have fantastic takedowns cannot get it to the ground he could really get pieced up by Barberena who is a total dog. That said I do expect Gunnar to get it down at some point and that will probably be wraps. Bet with caution on this one. Maybe the Fight does not go the distance is a good bet.

Maia vs. O'Neill
Jennifer Maia, DEC
Hmmm. Casey is the prospect here and Maia is the veteran. The difference here being that I still rate Maia and think she has a lot left to offer. I actually think her boxing may be better than Casey's and Casey's wrestling is not as polished as I would like. I have a feeling that this could be a veteran lesson dealt out to Casey who has promise, but I don't think is the finished product yet. Over 2.5 looks a good bet.

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
Very very interesting fight. I have to say I have under estimated Dolidze recently. THAT SAID, I think his recent wins are due to his opponents giving him exactly the fight he wants. Marvin has a head like a block of cement, he is not getting knocked out. So Roman has one less path. He is not going to out wrestle Marvin in my view so that is another problem. If Marvin keeps it on the feet and out volumes and out paces Roman I can see him getting tired and frustrated. Roman has been outstruck by Hermanson and Trevin Giles. All Marvin needs to do is avoid the clinch and the ground and he should win this.

Shore vs. Amirkhani
Jack Shore, DEC
Here are the rest of the picks. I don't know what to make of Jack Shore. I was high on him, especially when he beat Hunter Azure with an arm injury that prevented him striking much. But recently I have become less and less impressed. And getting out struck by Ricky Simon was NOT a good look. If Makhwan had even slightly better cardio I would pick him. I think he is the better wrestler and his front choke series is really really slick and nice. But the issue is that he is facing another wrestler who will give him resistance and that will tire him and slow him, And if he does not get a finish in R1 I think Shore will start to take over. This is very much a set up fight for Shore and as much as I think he is over hyped I think he does win this. Definitely not betting this fight.

Duncan vs. Morales
Omar Morales, DEC
Again this should be a setup fight. But I have not been very impressed with Duncan. He is very hittable and probably chinny. I do not think he has the power to knock out Morales who also has the better BJJ. Morales has only really lost to very good fighters like Pearce and he looks much much better at lightweight without a drastic weight cut. I think this is another spot where the veteran wins over the prospect. Maybe Duncan proves me wrong but I need to see it. I am picking Morales.

Patterson vs. Ashmoz
Yanal Ashmoz, DEC
Hmmmm. Ok going against the odds here. Patterson has some promise and is massive. But he is so, so hittable. And Ashmoz is actually really good. He is short, stocky and powerful and should crash the pocket and lay in with body shots where Patterson can't use his reach. And he is the much better wrestler. If he gets it to the ground I do not see Patterson getting up. In fact his length will probably prevent him using sweeps to get up. I think Ashmoz is a really good bet.

Mokaev vs. Filho
Muhammad Mokaev, SUB, R3
Filho is good, and Mokaev really really has some work to do before he becomes the prospect he thinks he is. That said this one is a setup for him to showcase his dominant chain wrestling against someone who won't be able to prevent getting taken down and as he gets tired will likely get subbed or tkod.

Murphy vs. Santos
Lerone Murphy, TKO, R1
Again Santos is good. And gets better as the fight goes longer just as Murphy tends to fade. But really I think Murphy is really really good. And I think he gets a finish early.

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R1
This doesn't need a breakdown. Total mismatch.

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, TKO, R2
Again a setup for Hadley. Ground games will cancel out but the main problem is Gordons chin. He is going to get sent to space.

Wood vs. Carolina
Luana Carolina, DEC
I cannot beleive this. I am picking Carolina. I have always disliked her and thought she was horrible, but she has shown improvements in both striking and grappling. I have always liked Wood and thought she has been on the wrong end of some very bad decisions. But I really, really did not like her last 2 fights and I think she is almost ready to retire. I think she will quit if this gets tough. I am actually going to bet Carolina for the first time in my life. and thats against a fighter I like. Damn

Herbert vs. Klein
Ľudovít Klein, TKO, R3
For me the hardest fight on the card to predict. I like both of them though they have both cost me money. I just think that with Herberts chin concerns Klein is always live for a damaging blow. And the worst thing is that Herbert knows it. Which is going to stifle his game and make him do things differently just like he did against Nelson. I think Klein will not have those concerns and he will be facing a different Herbert after the Topuria KO. He will fight his style and likely win.

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, TKO, R2
No breakdown needed. Setup fight to get a highlight finish for Miller who the UFC thinks will be a star. I am not so sure about that but she wins this one easily.

The description suggests you pick Fiziev, not Justin.

--
ChLD + J. Miller = lock

* Edited at 03.14.2023, 6:27 AM ET *

NO RUSTY NOW IM REALLY WORRIED ABOUT MY PATTERSON BET

IMO, I think the safest bets here are: Ľudovít Klein, Sam Patterson, Jack Shore, and Usman. Sure, Usman lost to Leon, but the path to victory is pretty simple. Usman just has to avoid getting kicked in the head again, and then wrestle his ass off.

Wood vs. Carolina
Joanne Wood, DEC
Wood should win this fight but she's on an awful losing streak and yeah it's to mostly very good opponents but it's still a losing streak. Carolina is athletic but isn't really a good fighter. This fight will play out very close.

Herbert vs. Klein
Ľudovít Klein, TKO, R2
I've never been high on Herbert. He has massive durability issues and has low IQ. Klein should be able to high kick him in the head and finish him. Herbert would be smart to grapple here but I don't think he does.

Hardy vs. Miller
Juliana Miller, SUB, R1
I think this is gonna be an extremely quick fight. Miller is trying to get her career going in the UFC while Hardy is coming back after a long layoff. I think Miller can sub her with ease and bully her.

* Edited at 03.14.2023, 7:39 AM ET *

Edwards vs. Usman III
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Usman will take the rematch. Edwards has his moments in round 1 of their last fight and then obviously finished him with the head kick but Usman is the better fighter and will get his belt back.

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, TKO, R1
Fiziev by anyway he wants, unless Justin wrestles. Justin is way too wild on the feet and I see Rafael rocking him with something huge and putting his lights out.

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R1
Nelson gets him down and subs him. Barberena is such a fun fighter I wish he would stop taking fights against grapplers and just fight strikers.

Maia vs. O'Neill
Jennifer Maia, DEC
O'Neill looked terrible against Roxanne and she even got busted up by her. Absolutely horrible look. Maia will be able to piece her up on the feet just as bad, if not worse. O'Neill has a lot of potential but I don't think she gets this one done unless she goes for takedowns consistently.

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
There are levels to this and I don't think Dolidze will ever break into the top 5. Vettori will outwork him in every aspect.

Shore vs. Amirkhani
Jack Shore, SUB, R2
Shore will sub a gassed Makwan. I actually like watching Amirkhani fight in the first round. He has a nasty anaconda choke.

Duncan vs. Morales
Omar Morales, TKO, R2
Duncan has crazy power but Morales can bang too. Morales has looked awful lately but honestly I'm taking him to get the finish in this spot. Duncan has no striking defense and gets dropped every fight. This will be close but I'm taking the vet.

Patterson vs. Ashmoz
Sam Patterson, SUB, R1
Easy takedown and sub for Patterson but I think both of these guys aren't very good. I don't expect them to be around too long in the UFC, especially Yanal.

Mokaev vs. Filho
Muhammad Mokaev, SUB, R1
Easy takedown and sub for Mokaev. I didn't like his performance vs Gordon but he still got the finish.

Murphy vs. Santos
Lerone Murphy, DEC
Santos is good but there are levels to this and Murphy is better than everyone Santos has fought regionally. Murphy is very good and I wish he was more active cause he's skilled.

Duncan vs. Todorović
Christian Leroy Duncan, TKO, R1
I never thought I'd say it's gonna be an easy debut for a new fighter but I will say it now. Dusko is mediocre everywhere and literally doesn't move his head when he strikes. He's gonna get knocked out badly.

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, SUB, R2
Hadley has bad takedown defense and likes to work off of his back too long sometimes and even though Gordon has durability issues as well as bad striking, he has very good jiu jitsu and if Hadley isn't careful he could get subbed. I think Hadley finished Gordon with a club and sub in round 2.

Now thats an insight thats useful, now I don't feel that bad about picking Leon

Edwards vs. Usman III
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Kamaru is mentally strong man. So will be Edwards in his own crowd. Close fight 48-47 I am leaning fw Usman. Also I see Usman Ko'ing Edwards like he did to Masvidal, but... Let's wait

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, DEC
I don't underestimate Gaethje and Wittman and I don't see Fiziev running through him. Maybe 29-28.

Hadley vs. Gordon
Jake Hadley, DEC
I don't think Hadley will finish him. The fight will be closer than a lot og people think.

Herbert vs. Klein
Ľudovít Klein, SUB, R2
RNC 2nd pound. Same like Moicano did

Edwards vs. Usman III
Leon Edwards, DEC
I think Leon's striking will be far more potent this time around, with him hunting after Kamaru's legs and absolutely battering them within a few rounds at most. Given the wear-and-tear on his knees, I'll be surprised to see Usman score any takedowns after one or two rounds of leg kicks. I think Leon cruises in this fight provided he doesn't shell up or break under the pressure.

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, TKO, R2
I wouldn't back Fiziev against the actual top names of the division (like Poirier or Oliveira, for instance), but this is a great matchup for him here. Oliveira read Gaethje's leg kicks very easily and I'll be very surprised if Gaethje can stand in striking range and be competitive with Fiziev. I've seen people say that Fiziev is overrated, but if anything, I think people put too much stock in Gaethje's finishing abilities and I honestly don't think he'll touch Rafa during the kickboxing stints of the fight.

Nelson vs. Barberena
Gunnar Nelson, SUB, R1
Barbarena has zero resistance to takedowns. Should be over quickly.

Vettori vs. Dolidze
Marvin Vettori, DEC
Dolidze's calf slicer on Jack was very clever, but I think a lot of it was brute force. Vettori isn't the smartest fighter, but Roman isn't top 5-ready just yet and I doubt that he juggernauts his way through that blockheaded Vettori.

if shore gets D'arced in the first round im gonna scream

Jai definitely has poor wrestling and TDD but where did the perception come from that he has no chin? 

He was beating Trinaldo until he got caught with a bomb that skimmed the top of his head. Didn't even get hit in the chin. He had Topuria seriously on the ropes until he pulled the demons out of that beast and got himself flattened. Hard to hold a loss to arguably the future FW champ against him. He never had a shot against someone like Moicano, which was obviously way too big a step up and just a win to get Moicano back on the horse. His only other loss is technically to a welterweight.

If the perception is tied to the fact that he only loses by finish, I get that. That's fair. But he's literally been "chinned" one time. I think him being a one dimensional striker against a much more well rounded opponent is the real narrative.

Which brings me back to my point that even as limited as he is, Jai hurt Topuria bad in their fight. That's still the most damage I've seen Topuria take in a fight. I DO NOT think Klein is built like Topuria and I refuse to believe it's a coincidence the UFC keeps giving Jai blown up featherweights to fight, albeit fairly talented ones.

My honest opinion is that the UFC likes Jai's striking but are realistic and understand that he's a frail LW. He has the frame to be a WW but he's just too skinny. So to balance it out, they're trying to even the playing field and give him smaller guys that he ends up having tons of reach against. 

Damn...theyre doing Dusko dirty. Getting served up on a silver platter to be absolutely shadow realmed. Yikes. 

Gaethje vs. Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev, TKO, R3
A True chin test for Fiziev. Shavkat already passed his chin test vs Geoff Neal pretty easily and I don't expect Fiziev to go recklessly chasing a Knockout over smn like Gaethje. And for Justin himself, he is The Highlight for a reason. He can spark you with 1 shot but he can also be put out cold easily, or he can be pieced up by guys with good boxing like Dustin Porier for example. I expect Fiziev striking masterclass to result in late R2 TKO. Don't count Justin out though, he still has crazy as **** power that can shut anyone's lights out.

I think I'm with you that on Joanne Wood. I pretty much can't back her against anyone at this point. You'd think being 37 and 2-5 in your last 7 would be enough indication your times probably done. 

Then again, I pretty much said this same thing about Lipski last week. It's un-ranked WMMA. Who knows.