Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

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Tapology
Tapology
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02.07.2022 | 10:57 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
Bout   Info
Alexander Volkov   defeats   Jairzinho Rozenstruik   via KO/TKO, Punches   2:12 Round 1 of 5 Bout Page
Movsar Evloev   defeats   Dan Ige   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Lucas Almeida   defeats   Michael Trizano   via KO/TKO, Left Hook to Ground Strikes   0:55 Round 3 of 3, 10:55 Total Bout Page
Karine Silva   defeats   Poliana Botelho   via Submission, D'arce Choke   4:55 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Ode Osbourne   defeats   Zarrukh Adashev   via KO/TKO, Counter Right Hook to Ground Strikes   1:01 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Alonzo Menifield   defeats   Askar Mozharov   via KO/TKO, Elbows From Crucifix   4:40 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Karolina Kowalkiewicz   defeats   Felice Herrig   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   4:01 Round 2 of 3, 9:01 Total Bout Page
Joe Solecki   defeats   Alex da Silva   via Decision, Majority   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Damon Jackson   defeats   Dan Argueta   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Benoit Saint-Denis   defeats   Niklas Stolze   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   1:32 Round 2 of 3, 6:32 Total Bout Page
Tony Gravely   defeats   Johnny Munoz Jr.   via KO/TKO, Uppercut to Ground Strikes   1:08 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Jeff Molina   defeats   Zhalgas Zhumagulov   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Rinat Fakhretdinov   defeats   Andreas Michailidis   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Erin Blanchfield   defeats   JJ Aldrich   via Submission, Standing Guillotine Choke   2:38 Round 2 of 3, 7:38 Total Bout Page

Page 115

DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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06.05.2022 | 3:57 AM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 695 Points   |   Tied for 1356th

The thing is that favourtes winning fight is still about 60% , so one card where the favorites go 13/14 or 92% prove nothing, It like a coin flip, If you get 9 heads in 10 attept, A coin landing head on the 11th attempt is still 50%, Not 90%, So one card when the favoutes win, They're a card where more dogs win, But it does average out to  about 60%

60% of the time is not that reliable of betting favoutes, 

"Quack quack quack"

Baldric Eggling
Baldric Eggling

06.05.2022 | 4:38 AM ET

Predictions: 10 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 630 Points   |   Tied for 2012th

Favourites win much more than 60%. They win between 67%-68%.

Here's what I'm going to do:

Before each UFC, I am going to run every UFC bout featured on the card through this algorithmic picker some dude just randomly created in Python. It hovers around 70% accuracy.

I'll post those results prior to the event happening, And afterwards. Because that's what it's going to take for you people to finally understand that there's no point to any of this whatsoever.

https://ufcmmapredictor.herokuapp.com
TARTARA
TARTARA
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06.05.2022 | 4:55 AM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 655 Points   |   Tied for 1741st

All of you just like to *****ing around, you just like to play it like you are experts, but in reality you just cherry picking
a few fights here and there and you are only bla bla bla !

On the other hand :
Probably i have picked up all the events the last month or so, and all the events that are now live on Tapology (240) and my picking percentage hasn't dropped at all, im always in between 69.7 - .8  - .9 ! And probably the last two weeks i go somewhere 80.000 points ( 1400 - 1500 per day) ! 

With all this knowledge that all of you lay down you should have over 80% ! But you ain't nothing, some of you are even below my persentage... ! Just L☻L !

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

KyleH
KyleH
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06.05.2022 | 4:59 AM ET

Predictions: 13 of 14 Winners, 5 Perfect, 840 Points   |   Tied for 130th

@tartara your ufc percentage is 57.3… 

"There's 3 things in life that excite me. A woman, of course. Dinosaurs, and the violence of the Octagon" - GSP

TARTARA
TARTARA
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06.05.2022 | 5:08 AM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 655 Points   |   Tied for 1741st

@Kyleh


Read my previous post again, and don't cherry picking whatever you like !

My picking percentage is 69.8 !

And about my UFC picks :
I prefer to support the fighters that i like, even that i almost know that i will take the L !

Do i made myself clear... !?

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

Lisac
Lisac
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06.05.2022 | 5:15 AM ET

@Tartara

Predictions: 10 of 14 Winners, 2 Perfect, 580 Points   |   Tied for 2367th

So.. you're literally picking these other organizations to increase your pick % meanwhile "losing on purpose" in UFC to "support" fighters you like, but then you talk **** to people who have a lower % then you saying they cherry pick lol... nice mental gymnastics 




This user is suspended from posting until 9 years, 1 month, 2 weeks, 6 days, 5 hours, and 3 minutes from now.
TARTARA
TARTARA
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06.05.2022 | 5:30 AM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 655 Points   |   Tied for 1741st

@Lisac


I was talking about the "*****ing experts" ! 

But yet again like all the others you just understand whatever you like... !

Im trying to pick up all the events because i like the whole process, and so far im pretty good with my stats - results ! And also i have some other special numbers... ! My best one is 7 , if you know you know ! 

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

TARTARA
TARTARA
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  • Post Score: 65

06.05.2022 | 5:44 AM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 655 Points   |   Tied for 1741st

There you go... 

16 of 20 Winners, 3 Perfect, 990 Points

probably some of you will never gonna pick up an event like this... ! Just L☻L !

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

TARTARA
TARTARA
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  • Member Since: 2021.02.01
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06.05.2022 | 7:56 AM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 655 Points   |   Tied for 1741st

There you go...

15 of 20 Winners, 3 Perfect, 925 Points

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/88658-versus-mma-7/predictions-leaderboard


Probably we are less than 100 acaunts that we really make picks... ! 

You Little Tropical Beaches ... L☻L !

Go ahead, dislike and *****ing around as much you want !

"KURZHAAR - Tomorrow Never Comes Until It's Too Late"

njrp77
njrp77
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06.05.2022 | 8:20 AM ET

Predictions: 10 of 14 Winners, 2 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 2487th

"hope not.. Evloev and Blanchfield are my 2 strongest parlay pieces this card

Ige gets out wrestled by korean zombie but Evloev isn't gonna do the same? mmmkayyy

JJ lost to Mazo and got finished by Barber.. she is going to beat Erin? Blanchfield is not low/mid tier wmma"


:)
njrp77
njrp77
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06.05.2022 | 8:21 AM ET

Predictions: 10 of 14 Winners, 2 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 2487th

"Erin over JJ is the lock of the year"


^ this got 3 downvotes and 0 upvotes lol
CheckLeftHook
CheckLeftHook
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06.05.2022 | 9:54 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 14 Winners, 2 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 2511th

you care about internet points that much? 3 people took the time out of their day to actually momentarily give a **** and read what you wrote, what's so bad about that?

"🏴 No Quarter Given 🏴"

Erison
Erison
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06.05.2022 | 10:52 AM ET

Predictions: 10 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 640 Points   |   Tied for 1924th

Yeah, I'm still not following Baldric. Existential crisis vibe aside, you're saying the bookies are "too good". I dunno man, -150 for Volkov was good money. -190 for Ode, -250 to bet AGAINST Michaledis, and even when it got greasy -160 Solecki came through and -170 Molina. Menifield was -170 against a guy who literally didn't have a verifiable record.

This card, of all cards, was a feast if you parlay any of those together. It's so weird to see y'all talking like it's time to put the gun in your mouth now, of all nights. This was the night WE were right. Nothing was confusing, everything made sense. How you go from that to "there's no point to any of this. Bookies are too good, pick rates don't matter, all is lost" is beyond me. You're clearly using this to explore a different thought. Take a beat, distill that thought down, and present it on it's own platform when its ready.

As far as I can tell you're mostly just mad that people enjoy the picks functionality of this website and... whatever.

* Edited at 06.05.2022, 11:49 AM ET *

Hyrm
Hyrm
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06.05.2022 | 1:57 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 14 Winners, 4 Perfect, 670 Points   |   Tied for 1625th

We probably have Rozenstruik vs Daukauss and Volkov vs Romanov next

"Never go down without a fight"

flying_frontkick
flying_frontkick
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06.05.2022 | 2:10 PM ET

Predictions: 0 of 0 Winners, 0 Perfect, 0 Points   |   Tied for 3607th

Just watching the main event

The stoppage seemed early but he was hurt bad and was just covering up and turned his back, that's a fair stoppage to me. Not one you wanna admit if you are on the receiving end of it. 

"For no particular reason beat up everyone"

AyyLmaonnaise
AyyLmaonnaise
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06.05.2022 | 2:17 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 14 Winners, 2 Perfect, 490 Points   |   Tied for 2932nd

Volkov vs tai once he gets his ass kicked by gane would be a sick fight 

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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06.05.2022 | 5:02 PM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 3 Perfect, 695 Points   |   Tied for 1356th

The thing is that favorites win about 63% of the time, Give or take a few percentage, But using one card where most of the favorites wins as an example isn't alway accurate, because they're alway be a card where all the dogs win to balance it out to about 63%, Can't use the extrems to say what the average is. Just is misleading

Also betting favourites or betting underdogs doesn't make profits, Because the bookies usually have the lines pretty accurate, They're a reason why bookies make profit, They line the fight good and half the people are on one side, And the other half is on the other side, They tax 5-10% of they're money each bet and profit

The only way to beat the bookies is to know where the values is, Could be a value favorite, Value Underdog or Value prop, Because the bookies isn't alway right, But they're a reason why no one really make money gambling, Is because they ususlly pretty close to right most of the time

* Edited at 06.05.2022, 5:07 PM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

theproishiphop
theproishiphop
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06.05.2022 | 5:02 PM ET

Predictions: 11 of 14 Winners, 5 Perfect, 740 Points   |   Tied for 938th

These results all make sense if you break them down.

"Sir, ARE you ready? Sir, ARE you ready? FIGHT!!!"

Joshjeffords
Joshjeffords
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06.06.2022 | 3:22 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 450 Points   |   Tied for 3085th

Roze stoppage was terrible he back imediatley.
I do feel volk might have got him again but could easily swung other way.

"“I took no damage,” Hill said. “Most of the fall was me falling down"

njrp77
njrp77
  • Member Since: 2016.09.23
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06.06.2022 | 10:33 AM ET

Predictions: 10 of 14 Winners, 2 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 2487th

"you care about internet points that much?"


nope just found it interesting people thought JJ had a chance to win that fight

Page 115


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