UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I think Randy is the more skilled fighter but it's hard to overlook that Khaos eraser-power; besides, it's not like he lacks skill completely and just swings for the bleachers. So I like his chances to actually connect on the money shot and put Randy away.

Gatto is my one blindbet here, had her vs SIjara as well. Don't know why people keep fading her. Powerful roided physique with a long frame with good grappling. I think the strength advantage will tell in this one like when Robertson grappled with Taila Santos (another roided brazilian).

Thug Rose! Thug Rose! I can't wait for her fight either! A week after Chito too, I personally couldn't ask for better matchmaking, 

🔥🔥🔥🔥

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 10:02 AM ET *

Namajunas vs. Esparza II
Rose Namajunas, DEC
I'm picking Rose Namajunas, but this Carla Esparza has a chance.

Keep betting lauzon y'all, help me out 

2 most confident: Chandler and Fialho

2 best dogs: Gaethje and Newson

FoTN: Gaethje v Oliviera

I agree. Chandler-Fialho is likely a parlay 

This is definitely a first draft...

Oliveira-Chandler (-101)*
add Royval-Fiahlo (line pending)
add Namajunes-Garcia
add Williams-Rodrigues
add Godinez-Roberts
add Dumont-OSP
add Rogério-Gatto
add Cerrone ---POGEY ROB PARLAY PICK---

*Sets up the hedge

I feel pretty good about the top 3 lines but anything can happen.  If you get the top two lines or better, it will be the easiest hedge out ever with Justin Gaethje at serious plus money.  But let's be honest with ourselves.  The last two Oliveira fights we have been gifted plus money odds.  Let's not get too greedy here and pick against him because he is the favorite.  No matter what you do,  if you can hedge at the end... I would hedge on either fighter.  If you pick Gaethje, you probably can get Oliveira plus money by finish to hedge.  Or if you like to gamble, by submission.  I would just be cautious because Justin is a better wrestler than both Michael and Dustin.  

Rogério finally beat his alternating win/loss streak and is getting dog money against a guy who has been so inactive.  In a dog or pass situation, I am just going dog.  If you like the Ivanov side, I don't blame you.  I just won't get over invested in that fight.  

I feel like the UFC wants to get Cerrone a win somehow.  As much as Lauzon sounds like a good time, I can't do it.  I want to but he hasn't fought in 3 years.  So this one I am going to be least invested in.

I hate capping women's MMA.  I even feel I am overexposed where I have Thug Rose, but I hate the price tag on Rodrigues.  While I think Khaos and Danny Roberts should win, I am more confident in Thug Rose.  But Esparza is no joke.  I will have to keep watching film.

I guess I will go with OSP... WAY DOWN THE CARD.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 12:21 PM ET *

that confident in oliveira?

It isn't that he is my most confident pick.  It is that it sets up the hedge out.  I think the price on Gaethje is juicy for a hedge.  If I was to do it by confidence, Oliveira would be my pick but probably middle of the pack.

ok. that fight is 50-50 to me. either oliveira sub or gaethje ko. 

Perfect!

So in this instance, if you felt that way... Put which ever fighter you feel is going to win.  Then when it comes to the hedge, if that is in play, you bet the other side.  If you really have balls you bet Gaethje TKO or Oliveira sub.  Either way, you won't have to wager much to guarantee a profit on the night.  If it came down to it for me, and I had enough tix involved.  I would probably cash out a bunch of them early and let the longest odds parlay ride because my book offers great cashout odds.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 11:35 AM ET *

just bet the under 2.5 on the cowboy-lauzon fight at -137. earlier in the week i bet the under 2.5 on the osp-shogun fight at -135. 

i feel like these are good prices considering all these guys have durability issues and high finish upside.

also 3 out of 4 of these dudes have no gas tank so that'll make it even easier.

Those seem like solid prop bets.  

I actually think Oliveira's best path to victory is his shovel uppercut. Gaethje has shown major vulnerability to that shot in all of his fights. Even Ferguson almost KO'd Gaethje with it. Maybe he club and subs him, but I'd bet dollars to donuts it's an uppercut or knee that leads to a Do Bronx win.

Edit* I'm still picking Gaethje fyi, but low confidence.

* Edited at 05.01.2022, 11:37 AM ET *

i want gaethje by ko. and fight doesn't go to decision(i know its gonna be juiced).

gaethje by ko on some sites are +200 and I think that's a steal

There is no way I am betting Cowboy Cerrone straight up at -170 in 2022.  Not happening lol.  Oh dear God.

i will. just waiting on people to keep betting lauzon.

this is cowboys easiest fight since john makdessi

Cerrone vs. Lauzon
Joe Lauzon, SUB, R1
J-LAU !!