Jose Aldo faces Chad Mendes at UFC 142 in Brazil

http://mmajunkie.com/news/25894/ufc-featherweight-champ-jose-aldo-faces-chad-mendes-at-ufc-142-in-brazil.mma?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+mmajunkie+%28MMAjunkie.com+Feed%29

I was planning on Mendes grinding out a boring decision against a Jose Aldo that has outgrown (physically) the featherweight division.  Now that this fight is happening in Brasil, I think Jose will have enough motivation. 

Aldo by outclassing another member of Team Alpha Male

 This is a tough one to pick, Mendes is for real. I'll be rooting for Aldo though.

@Wolf: For one thing, Aldo is a much better striker than Diaz from a technical standpoint and has much better takedown defense, and a ton more KO power for his weight class. I did say I might pick Aldo, but I think Mendes has a good chance of upsetting him. Not only is GSP a far better wrestler than Nick Diaz, but I also think he's a way better striker. Diaz uses his hands only, while GSP uses black belt level Karate and Kickboxing, utilizing all eight weapons (fists, elbows, knees, and feet) when he fights. He'll beat Diaz wherever the hell he wants.

@skelliher. i just hope your friend franklin has 350 dollars to pay me when he loses. both fighters who beat gsp were in their thirties. diaz will still be 28 years old and at his peak. gsp was stagerred by one punch that just clipped him by serra. i can only imagine what one liver strike will do to the great gsp. plus i read in the news section that people saw gsp walking just fine at the ufc 137 event . he might have a small injury but thats it. you guys will be eating crow when this is over.

 

gsp a better striker. he sure  showed that against shields. talk about someone who has no ko power. he could not even knockout kos with a broken orbital bone and kos could not even see out of one eye. another thing if daley would have hit gsp with the same strike he hit diaz with gsp would be knock out. diaz the much better chin. gsp can inflict punishment but he can't take it. that will be his down fall. plus lets see how he does when he has a hostile crowd towards him. matt hughes said it perfectly. georges main weakness is his mental game. diaz is the better striker, tougher, better chin, better BJJ and much tougher mentally then the "play it safe" gsp.

* Edited at 11.01.2011, 11:41 AM ET *

I slightly tore my MCL and walked normally...Its painful and the knee is unstable.

well thats all fine and dandy. lets see if georges can fight thru some pain for once in his life. diaz will inflict "the pain"

This is off-topic, so I'll end it now. Debating with you @wolf doesn't usually go anywhere productive concerning Diaz. We'll see what happens. I just hope you man up when Diaz loses. How about my Avatar bet? I said if GSP wins, I get to choose your Avatar pic and you can't change it until Diaz wins another UFC fight. Same goes for me if Diaz wins.

And about GSP fighting through pain for once in his life...um, he tore his abductor in the third round against Thiago Alves in 2009 and continued to utterly dominate him. But okay. Let me know when Diaz beats a top five WW and we can talk.

* Edited at 11.01.2011, 11:44 AM ET *

i do sig bets only. 5-0 in sig bets on here. my wolf is here to stay. there is a 50/50 chance of the outcome IMO but i will always take the underdog when money is concerned when i think its even on who will win. everybody wants my wolf avatar. :- }

Okay so you think it's a 50/50 fight and yet you are convinced Diaz is going to win? That makes no sense. 

GSP broke his nose in the first round against Penn (the first fight) and he received a thumbs in the eye in the same first round.

As skelliher said, he tore his abductor in the third round against Thiago Alves in 2009. (I think it's round 4, but whatever)


And finally, he wasn't able to see with his left eye for rounds 3-4-5 against Shields.




He still won all those fights.

well that leaves rounds one and two where he could have knockout shields who basically has no standup. as for the 50/50 comment of coure gsp has an even chance to win. he is great. see i won't put down other people's opponents. i figure diaz will be at least a +240 when the moneylines come out. maybe someone has seen an early one. another example of striker defeating the much better wrestler just happend at ufc 137. barticus destroyed tyson griffin and he was a +275. look at the comment section of a guy named MMAPICKER on here. you will see i took bart p. on that moneyline because i thought that was an even matchup. see i saw  bart p. live vs anthony pettis and i saw some very good skills from him.  you need to take risks when money is involved to beat the handicappers.

* Edited at 11.01.2011, 12:01 PM ET *

@wolf: That's not the point. You are extremely inconsistent. In one thread you go on and on about how Diaz is going to win the fight, how GSP plays it safe and can't strike with him, then you go back on that and say the fight is 50/50 and that GSP is just as good a striker as Diaz. This fight isn't 50/50 and we'll all see why on Superbowl weekend. 

But back to Mendes/Aldo, I have a feeling it could be a relatively boring fight is Mendes gets his way. If not, if should be great. 

last post to skelliher today. have you ever wagered on mma? if you have you would know that betting on gsp is not the good option your money is better used on other fighters. matt serra was a +750. if you just wagered 100 dollars you would have 750 dollars for that one fight. gsp is 90% around -300 thru -900 moneylines when he fights. i'll let you figure out how many fights gsp would have to win to earn you back that same 750 dollars. its all about the moneylines in nevada   you just see it as a fight between two fighters and it is but i want to make money on every ufc event. i take calculated chances and many times i'm right. this one guy on here asks me who i think the upsets will be. first one was henderson vs fedor. hendo was +215. he won easily so he wanted more advice. he now says 75% of his bodog account is b/c of the picks i gave him. i'm the only one that writes on his comment section  so you cant miss it. its jonjones with some numbers after it . i cant remember exactly of the top of my head but i will find out.

* Edited at 11.01.2011, 12:19 PM ET *

I understand how betting lines work, wolf. That's besides the point as well. The point is, thinking Diaz is a good bet and thinking he will actually win the fight are two very different things. 

It's not about betting on the underdog, it's about betting on the EV+ option.

Let's say I roll a dice and you have those lines to bet on :
I'll roll a "1" : -515
I'll roll a 2,3,4,5 or 6 : +400

You'll win 515$ with a 100$ bet 1/6 times betting on the 1. EV = 2.50$
You'll win 25$ with a 100$ bet 5/6 times betting on the "2,3,4,5 or 6". EV = 4.17$

With those odds, betting on the +400 is the better option, even if you only have 25$ back.

and if you roll dice all night and play your way and i roll double sixes once i win alot more money than you. same with zeroes in roulette. you play it safe and people who play it safe lose money in nevada. its the people who take risks who win. thats especially true in live  "cash" play poker which is my other pastime. you would wait for a good hand while i'll play jack/ eight and see what hits the flop. you of course can go too far in taking a risk. never play keno. worst odds in any casino game. i don't touch lottery's or the big six wheel either. terrible games for risk

* Edited at 11.01.2011, 12:43 PM ET *

Wolf you are confusing people.  This thread had nothing to do with betting odds and where you think there is value on underdogs. 

Your first couple posts were all about how much GSP is faking an injury, can't take a punch, can't handle pain, has worse boxing, worse BJJ, worse everything, and Diaz is going to win.

A few posts later you admit you think the fight is 50/50, and therefore see value in betting the underdog.

You're jumping around.

i said he had a small injury instead of something more serious and i never said diaz was better at everything. certainly not wrestling. i'm done with this thread and everything i said about moneylines and competitive underdogs is true.

Wolf, it has nothing to do with taking risk, it's about the Expected Value of a bet.

It's the same thing in a poker game. Each hand, in each position (BB, SM, UTG...) has an expected value based on the other players, your stack, ect...

But it's not true that playing agressive in a poker game is always the best thing to do in a cash game. The basic rule is that you want to be LAG (Loose agressive) when the other players are tight, and you want to be TAG (Tight Aggresive) when the other players will open any hands. 


It's not about taking risk, it's about understanding the betting odds. Yes, sometimes the best move is to take risks, but sometimes the best move is to go with the betting favorite.

The only thing that you can say against that is if you have a limited amount of money to bet on an event. In that case, it's true that betting on the favorite will hurt you in the short term. 

* Edited at 11.01.2011, 1:13 PM ET *

90% of the people who win the WSOP or WPT titles are aggressive players. read books by doyle brunson and phil hellmuth. agrression and calculated risk taking pays off. thats all.