Lawler vs. MacDonald II

This is the official discussion thread for Lawler vs. MacDonald II. Let's see what you've got.

If you're planning to bet Lawler, now's a great time. Getting him as a dog in this fight is insane value.

If you're planning to bet Lawler, you'll lose money. 

Though I am leaning Rory, it far from a forgone conclusion that Rory will win.

I'm not trying to say Lawler definitely wins, but he's the champ, has more five-round fight experience, and has a win over Rory. Those factors pretty much guarantee the line flips to show Lawler as more likely to win than not. Right now at +135, that suggests that Lawler is 42.55% likely to win. Some places have him as low as +141 that I've seen. Even if you think he'll lose, I doubt you'd rate his % to win that low. That's where the value is.

Red King?

60 % for MacDonald? I don't believe it.

Lawler will get thouroughly dominated. 

And people who try to bet on fights/sports based on VALUE, are the people who always lose their cash. You bet on who will win. It's pretty much that simple. 

I think it depends which Lawler shows up.

"And people who try to bet on fights/sports based on VALUE, are the people who always lose their cash. You bet on who will win. It's pretty much that simple. "


I don't often agree with messiah but when I do it's because he is right. Value is a useful tool to avoid bets though. Even if you like Rory you should not like him in this fight enough to give that many points away.




As for the fight. Robbie is the better striker and wrestler. Rory's best weapon, his jab, is negated by Robbies southpaw stance. Lawler is just a better fighter than Rory. How ever his age is a factor for me. At some point he will go down hill and there is no telling when it happens. In MMA that "hill" is usually a steep cliff. I'll take Lawler to beat any WW until he goes over the cliff though.

Here's an article that does a good job explaining why value is the best determining factor.

To qualify, this is only over the long-term. So, short-term, you guys are right, but I'm assuming people who bet one-off bets don't care that much.

I was following Fury's picks since October 2014 ... I've down to 20% of my original bankroll off of his bets. I'm 1-0 on personal bets, so I'm going solo starting with the Maia/LaFlare card. 

We shall see how I do.

Ugh, I follow Fury on twitter. Dude is SALTY when he loses a bet. 

@Slam I think valuation has a place in betting, but as I said it is more useful for normal folks to use as a red flag to avoid a bet. If you have a proven system and bet on lots of events then valuation has value...pun intended. lol.

I don't personally advocate tailing anyone's bets, because everyone is susceptible to ignoring their own bias. For example I saw that Fury bet Pettis, so tailing him on that would've been disappointing. But most of these successful guys don't bet according to a system, just because there are too many factors to control for. Getting a good read on a fight is the most important thing, I think. Sometimes on the MMA Oddscast, Fury's prediction podcast, he says things like, "I just think he's too skilled, too athletic" and those plays are always more likely to lose.

I probably shouldn't have said a system, but lacked a better term. I don't mean a system like a blackjack system, because like you said too many variables. Everyone that is successful betting on sports has a system though, even if that "system" is just breaking down fights and picking who they think will win based on what they see. If its proven to work they stay with it. 

I think determining how athleticism, speed and strength will effect a fight are some of the toughest things; determining the game plan is right up there too. If you find someone that can determine those things we can make a fortune. Pettis, IMO, is more skilled and more athletic than RDA; but that didn't matter because RDA had the better game plan and was close enough in the skill department to overcome the athleticism/speed of Pettis. Had this fight taken place in the center of the cage at a distance I would bet anything it'd be different. Fights like McGregor/Aldo and Werdum/Cain are a few more coming up I think can go either way depending on a few "intangibles". 

I think that Rory is the best 170lb fighter right now in UFC.

so do i

Rory is harnessing his inner psycho. Dude got a new haircut, because he 'feels like a killer'




Article

He does look like a "killer" but not in the Vitor Belfort sort of way, he looks like the kind of guy who would show up in a lurid tabloid article as the guy who killed a fellow member of his Satanic cult while high on PCP.