Aldo vs. McGregor

This is the official discussion thread for Aldo vs. McGregor. Let's see what you've got.

Dana White ‏@danawhite  2m2 minutes ago

Just an FYI this is why u should never read or trust BJ Penn. Com. This is literally the MGM right NOW!!

When I hear banners and posters taken down, I'm thinking throughout the inside of the MGM, not the huge ******* marquee advertisements that take serious planning to get down.  Those wouldn't at all be the first anyone would think to pull.

So how does Edgar feel?

28 months since his only 145 title shot and on a 4 fight win streak.

Mendes at 8 months since his second 145 title shot and on a 1 fight win streak.

I don't like it, if I'm honest. I wanted this fight like everyone else, but if Aldo is at risk of not being 100% here, he should not risk it. That's not an "excuse", it's a legitimate point of discussion. Aldo's rib was hurt enough that him and his camp thought it was broken or fractured, and the injury was bad enough that for 24h+, the fight looked to be just short of being cancelled. I don't like this, and will now probably pick McGregor. Aldo's ribs are hurt. Broken, bruised, it doesn't matter. They're hurt, and McGregor knows it. Not good.

* Edited at 06.24.2015, 10:24 PM ET *

Mendes vs McGregor is much more promotable and Edgar only has one more shot in his career if you ask me, he probably shouldn't have it be on short notice. 

I don't think Aldo would have any problem at all pulling out with a day or two left if he felt he was hampered enough that it could affect him holding onto his belt.  He could just back out of the fight and retain his title while Conor and Mendes fight for an interim belt and a fight with Aldo around the end of the year.  He really has no reason at all to go into the fight hurt enough to make a difference when he has the option to sit out and retain the title.  Unfortunately or fortunately, depending how you look at it, everything is in place for him to back out last minute without pissing off the boss.

He really has no reason at all to go into the fight hurt enough to make a difference when he has the option to sit out and retain the title.

I disagree. Aldo has a great reason to go into the fight: money! That's why he's gonna fight injured.

* Edited at 06.24.2015, 10:51 PM ET *

Haha, you could be right.  A definite risk/reward decision.

It's possible Aldo is just extremely smart about when to pull out.

Say he's making about 150k/150k right now which is I imagine nearly on point, and he wins and pulls $300k.

These are his last few pull-outs, with the last one unknown, being UFC 189:
Pulls out of UFC 149, Changed to UFC 153: Pulled out of a Canada card, scheduled for a Brazil card.
Pulls out of UFC 176, Changed to UFC 179: Pulled out of a Las Vegas card, scheduled for a Brazil card.
Pulls out of UFC 189?, Changed to ?: Pulled out of a Las Vegas card, scheduled for ?


So if we take a $300k income, if he'd fought any of the three fights in Vegas or Canada, he would've been taxed an extra 25-30% as he'd get hit with the US or Canada tax on his income, so he'd enter Brazil with (saying 25%) $225k left.  Once back in Brazil, he has to pay taxes there which would be around 25-30% so another $60k drops off and he's left with $165k.


Pulling out of the US/Canada cards to fight on cards in Brazil, he avoids the double tax and only gets hit with the 25-30% tax in Brazil so he pulls in $220k instead of $165k because he fought at home.  That's a significant difference of $50-60k for someone already unhappy with the new system of pay for sponsoring fighters and the money he'll be losing because of the Reebok deal.  I'm not suggesting he's not hurt at all by any means right now, but just for him realistically, fighting out of Brazil is not the financially smartest thing to do.  Maybe the injury will give him some leverage to get the UFC to kick in a PPV tier based system into his contract for the event like Conor has, or an extra $100k+.  He'll only have this level of bargaining power for the next few weeks if he wants to use it.  This all being if money is his primary motivator above how much of a detriment his injury might be, as suggested.

The stage is set for a rematch.  Smart money move.  

300k is his salary, not counting PPV money which can easily be more than another 300k, sponsors which before Reebok was more than 300 in sponsors money. They any backroom bonuses, fight of the night bonuses and such. He still deserves more...GSP was making more than 12million a fight, Jon Jones more than 5million a fight. If all Aldo is making is 900k before taxes a fight that's depressing.

I just saw, they apparently re-did his contract for this fight.

Aldo is scheduled to get $500k to show, $250k if he wins.

Conor is scheduled to get $300k to show, $250k if he wins.

Conor also has a tier based PPV contract ($3 per PPV sold if in the 300k-500k range, $4 per if in the 500k-750k range, $5 per if in the 750k+ range).

So if the PPV does 800k buys, Conor gets 4mil plus 300k to show and 250k if he wins.

Again, the PPV doing 800k buys, Aldo gets 500k to show and 250k if he wins as he has no tier based PPV contract.

That is where he needs to use the leverage he has right now if he ever plans to.  He's the champ and Conor is about to walk away with near 5mil while Aldo doesn't clear 1mil.  I can't imagine he's happy about the situation and probably wants his contract amended to include a tier based PPV escalator.

The UFC is claimed to be the greediest multi billion dollar sports organization in the world, giving it's athlete's a smaller percentage of net profits than the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, NASCAR, Soccer ect. I don't know this to be true however. 

Aldo definitely needs to leverage, he deserves a lot more. Of all the champions right now he's the longest reigning.

He's about to defend in the UFC for the 8th time, not counting the WEC, and he's about to be out-earned around 5mil to 1mil by a newcomer.  That can't exactly sit well.

Kpro, your comment implies Aldo does not get PPV points. That's not true at all. All UFC champs are entered into the tiered PPV pts category if they're headlining. Aldo stands for make in the millions on PPV revenue before purses. 

Aldo will make a LOT of money in this fight and as skelli pointed out the majority of it will be PPV revenue cut (not counting sponsorships because I haven't the faintest what he makes from sponsors). 

Aldo also knows that if he loses, he'll get an immediate rematch no matter how close it is or isn't on account of him fighting through an injury and his next fight may even do better numbers.

Thing is, he's got one man to thank for that, Conor worked his ass off to promote the fight while as Aldo just showed up. That said, being the amazing champ that he is and not being the one to be willing/able to generate such interest himself, I think he was due a guy to finally put him in the fight that'll pay him what his excellence deserves.

2-3 fights with Conor and Aldo can easily walk into the sunset with the 3 biggest pay days of his career by far, so if his injury is managable I can totally see why he's willing to risk it. He's got his champion's confidence he can do it anyway, he knows he'll get an immediate rematch if he wants one, Dana is probably lining up his pockets with even more dosh for doing so and in a weird way, not that I think he wants it to go down like that, but a loss is worth way more to him than a win since it will potentially bring on a rivalary that both creates millionaires and builds legacies. 

Again, not that I think Jose wants to lose to Conor in any way, I just think that the desperation-mode that would maybe deter him from fighting specifically Conor at anything less than 100% may be numbed by the fact that this isn't do or die.

Ahh, I just knew he didn't have it in his specific contract.  I wasn't aware they had an encompassing tiered scale for champs.  Thanks for clarifying.

* Edited at 06.25.2015, 2:38 AM ET *

I hope Conor loses badly as he talked his way into this fight.  I have never routed for Aldo but will this time. 

* Edited at 06.25.2015, 6:55 AM ET *

Among guys who've won at least 2 in a row, that haven't lost to Aldo or Conor yet, the only other guy even among the top dozen guys at 145 like that is Charles Oliveira.  And he's facing Holloway next to see who joins Aldo, Mendes, Edgar, & McGregor in the top 5.  I do like some of the guys entering the top 15-20 right now a lot though like Mirsad Bektic, Brian Ortega, & Chas Skelly.  Maybe we'll even get Lance Palmer over someday.  Some solid talent should be joining the 5-10 range by stringing together another win or two over the next year.  Should spice up the division with new matchups.  Plus we can always hope for a Cody McKenzie return.