Maldonado vs. Kingsbury Predictions

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Maldonado vs. Kingsbury. Let's see what you've got.

Fight Metric (correctly) scored the fight for Maldonado. Overall it was close, but Maldonado was much more effective everywhere.
What is very impressive about this performance for Fabio is that he was battling a virus earlier this week. I think that may have played into his lack of aggression in the third round when he had Kingsbury hurt. I think he has a bright future, his grappling was slick as hell, as was his boxing, of course. 

Here's the link to fightmetric:
http://blog.fightmetric.com/2011/06/kingsbury-vs-maldonado-official-ufc.html

The Fightmetric report shows that you could still score Kingsbury the 29-28 decision depending on which fight aspects you value more. Kingsbury outstruck Maldonado by a small margin in total strikes in rounds 1 and 2, but by a bigger margin in significant strikes in those rounds. However, he had to fight off a guillotine attempt in each round. Also in those rounds, Kingsbury passed to half-guard once in each round, and Maldonado swept Kingsbury in round 2. Kingsbury's striking advantage was greater in round 1 than it was in round 2. Overall to score those rounds, it's striking versus guillotine attempts. What's more valuable? Fightmetric gives rd1 to Maldonado and rd2 to Kingsbury, since the rd1 striking disparity wasn't as great as in rd2. Also, Kingsbury took Maldonado down twice in each round. In round 3, Maldonado got more takedowns than Kingsbury (2-1 to Maldonado in takedowns). What makes the round Maldonado's though, is that he simply outstruck Kingsbury. I don't think the margin is so high that it should be 10-8 Maldonado. Over the course of the whole fight, Kingsbury landed slightly fewer strikes than Maldonado due to getting beat up in round 3. However, he landed more significant strikes.

Basically, it was an even fight. Maldonado clearly took round 3, which you could maybe score 10-8, though I definitely wouldn't. The other two rounds ask the question: "What is more valuable; a slight striking edge, or a guillotine attempt?" I value submission attempts more when there isn't much damage in rounds, but that's not the case here. This fight was basically a striking match. However, the striking edge was only small in round 1. Still, I score it 29-28 Kingsbury, because I still give him the first two rounds. It's one of those fights that shows the flaws in the 10-point must system, in that Maldonado won round 3 more than Kingsbury won rounds 1 or 2. Another thing worth mentioning is that Kingsbury LOOKED like he took worse of a beating. I honestly don't think this is very meaningful. There were many heavy strikes landed by both fighters, and they both took beatings, and showed that they could take a good deal of punishment. 29-28 Kingsbury, 29-28 Maldonado, and even 30-27 Maldonado are understandable scores. If you score round 3 10-8, then there's 28-28 Draw, 29-27 Maldonado , and 30-26 Maldonado as possibilities.

Yeah, don't get me wrong, it was very close, I just thought Maldonado took it. Most of those knees were blocked, and met with a brutal body shot.

I agree with some other people who're saying he should drop to 185. 20 pounds would not be hard for him to lose and I think he'd be a serious contender at 185 since that division lacks a lot of wrestlers and even then the size advantage would be much less to overcome.

My jaw dropped to the floor when they read the decision. Ya, I wouldn't say either one of those guys deserved a W after that piss-poor performance, but I thought Maldonado was clearly the winner.

You just never know what the judges are looking at.

I too would like to see Maldonado at 185. He was a chubby 203, so he should be able to make it fairly easy. Kingsbury ever comment on whether those body shots during the clinch were tearing him up? Certainly looked like it.

@Blackwork - Heres a quote from Kingsbury, “We watched a lot of film on this guy,” Kingsbury said. “We knew he had great body shots, but until you get in there, you never really know what a guy is packing. He’s devastating.”

And ouch, Kingsbury gonna be out awhile...

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Kingsbury-Suffers-Broken-Orbital-in-TUF-13-Finale-Triumph-32902

@geez, who had a piss poor performance? That was an awesome fight, it won FOTN.

@ mino. i agree. that was the best fight of the night. @ blackwork. i agree on the weight cut for maldonado. the middleweight division needs a fighter like that.

@Black.. absolutely.. guy weighs in at 203 w/out a weight cut... he would be a beat at 185.  I think he coulda finished Kyle in the 3rd if he woulda been more aggresive.. but I agree w/ @Mino AGAIN!  That was a great fight.

Yeah, that fight was great. At middleweight Maldonado could be a force. His jiu-jitsu is clearly very, very good (he landed so many awesome sweeps on a guy that big), and his boxing is as good as it gets in mma. He could get top 10, maybe even top 5 in the middleweight division. I'd love to see him fight Stann. 

Watching the fight for the first time right now and all I can say so far is....Are you kidding me!?! That size difference is insane!

i was guessing kingsbury was 230 -235 for that fight and 4 inches taller.