Topic: UFC Fight Night
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
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01.16.2024 | 10:38 PM ET
Responses Page 6
04.16.2024 | 7:18 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 7 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 405 Points | Tied for 3415th
Karine Silva, SUB, R1
Karine too physical here I think, she seems to be on the up as a fighter. Lipski improving too and probably wins a striking battle but I think Karine imposes herself on her physically early and finds a sub.
04.16.2024 | 7:22 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 7 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 405 Points | Tied for 3415th
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R1
Seems fairly simple, Lane way too chinny and not good enough at wrestling for this one. Of course things can happen at HW but I'd be shocked if a striker as good as Diniz loses here.
04.16.2024 | 7:24 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 7 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 405 Points | Tied for 3415th
David Onama, TKO, R2
Pearce is gonna get cracked trying to push the pace here I think. Of course he could wear Onama down to a decision if he can avoid that but Onama has spirit and carries his power well late in fights. I don't see Pearce being able to come back like Nate the Train. Onama could also get a decision based on some big moments with Pearce struggling to hold him otherwise.
04.16.2024 | 8:38 AM ET
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points | Tied for 4065th
04.16.2024 | 11:30 AM ET
04.16.2024 | 12:35 PM ET
@DevinM34
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points | Tied for 875th
04.16.2024 | 12:57 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points | Tied for 4065th
* Edited at 04.16.2024, 2:40 PM ET *
04.16.2024 | 2:09 PM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 415 Points | Tied for 3312th
Gabe Green, DEC
No clue on this one honestly. I’m goin Green because I don’t trust a Peruvian with a sus record. But Gabe Green also isn’t the best so I wouldn’t be shocked with either result l
04.16.2024 | 3:11 PM ET
Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 455 Points | Tied for 2756th
04.16.2024 | 3:37 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points | Tied for 4065th
* Edited at 04.16.2024, 3:37 PM ET *
04.16.2024 | 3:57 PM ET
Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 455 Points | Tied for 2756th
04.16.2024 | 4:19 PM ET
@DevinM34
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points | Tied for 875th
Might be different depending on strategy but if you bet dogs livebetting is very profitable because the swings are always out of proportion.
04.16.2024 | 4:21 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points | Tied for 4065th
04.16.2024 | 4:27 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points | Tied for 4065th
* Edited at 04.16.2024, 4:29 PM ET *
04.16.2024 | 4:38 PM ET
@DevinM34
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points | Tied for 875th
It comes down to me not playing tight enough on those bets because I find there is usually more leeway on dog bets. A dog bet where the line is wide has a lot higher EV than a favorite that is underplayed, that's just how the mathematics of odds play out. A fighter that is lined at 20% implied chance to win but should be 25% is at a 25% EV but a fighter that is lined at 75% implied odds but should be 80% is only a 6.4% EV.
Because most people don't care about what I just said or don't take the long view you get FOMO driving dog odds up before matches start and FOMO during livebets massively overreacting to one fighter getting the upper hand where it might not be warranted.
04.16.2024 | 4:48 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points | Tied for 4065th
04.16.2024 | 5:01 PM ET
@DevinM34
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points | Tied for 875th
04.16.2024 | 5:06 PM ET
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points | Tied for 4065th
04.16.2024 | 5:16 PM ET
Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 455 Points | Tied for 2756th
04.16.2024 | 5:31 PM ET
@DevinM34
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points | Tied for 875th
Let's see if Llontop is any good or not, Green will always fight hard for your money and is an enormous step up from the bums on the Peruvian regional scene I spent the last couple of hours watching Llontop grind out wins against.
I really liked Green's performance vs Garry watching in particular watching back his UFC run just now.
The only concern for him is moving down to 155 and how he succeeds with the cut but he's had 11 months to get ready for this one.