Topic: UFC 291

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

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Tapology
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05.13.2023 | 11:40 AM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC 291
  • Saturday 07.29.2023 at 07:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ABC
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: Vivint Arena
  • Location: Salt Lake City, Utah, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Joe Rogan
  • Ticket Revenue (live gate): $6,556,444
  • Attendance: 18,467
  • MMA Bouts: 11
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Justin Gaethje   defeats   Dustin Poirier   via KO/TKO, Head Kick   1:00 Round 2 of 5, 6:00 Total Bout Page
Alex Pereira   defeats   Jan Błachowicz   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Derrick Lewis   defeats   Marcos Rogério de Lima   via KO/TKO, Flying Knee to Ground Strikes   0:33 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Bobby Green   defeats   Tony Ferguson   via Submission, Arm Triangle Choke   4:54 Round 3 of 3, 14:54 Total Bout Page
Kevin Holland   defeats   Michael Chiesa   via Submission, D'arce Choke   2:39 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Gabriel Bonfim   defeats   Trevin Giles   via Submission, Guillotine Choke   1:13 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
CJ Vergara   defeats   Vinicius Salvador   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Roman Kopylov   defeats   Claudio Ribeiro   via KO/TKO, Head Kick   0:33 Round 2 of 3, 5:33 Total Bout Page
Jake Matthews   defeats   Darrius Flowers   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   2:37 Round 2 of 3, 7:37 Total Bout Page
Uros Medic   defeats   Matthew Semelsberger   via KO/TKO, Spinning Backfist to Ground Strikes   2:36 Round 3 of 3, 12:36 Total Bout Page
Miranda Maverick   defeats   Priscila Cachoeira   via Submission, Armbar   2:11 Round 3 of 3, 12:11 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 6

CheckLeftHook
CheckLeftHook
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07.05.2023 | 2:47 AM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 460 Points   |   Tied for 3079th

sparring videos don't mean **** 99% of the time. you can just watch Izzy take and hold him down to know what Jan will do to him.

"Through the Gates of Hell"

CrimsonChinGuru
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07.05.2023 | 4:05 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 530 Points   |   Tied for 1690th

Well no **** Sherlock, but for someone who is pulling for Pereira regardless on a delusional level seeing Dillon Danis take him down was earth shattering.

"They killed Jesus for speaking the truth..."

Sabbath
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07.05.2023 | 1:52 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 8 Winners, 3 Perfect, 465 Points   |   Tied for 3054th

I’m with
@AyyLmaonnaise 
on this one. I’ve always been a critic of Miguel Baeza and his half-assed stone wall defense, and now he’s suffered two major upsets in a row against far less technical brawlers just because he can’t stop going to the ******* squared philly shell. 

Tbh, I think he has more of a shot against Jake Matthews, since both of them are pretty flawed and Miguel is well-rounded enough to hang with him both on the feet and on the ground. I have to watch more tape before I come to that conclusion though.
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AyyLmaonnaise
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07.05.2023 | 1:53 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 665 Points   |   Tied for 160th

If baezas chin wasn’t destroyed I’d probably pick him to win here tbh 

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

Sabbath
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07.05.2023 | 1:55 PM ET

AyyLmaonnaise

Predictions: 6 of 8 Winners, 3 Perfect, 465 Points   |   Tied for 3054th

I dunno if I’d call it “destroyed”. Khaos and Fialho are exceptional heavy hitters. In fact, it’s more or less the only thing those two are good at. 

If he gets knocked out by Jake Matthews, then I’ll have to take your word for it because that’s sad af 
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AyyLmaonnaise
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07.05.2023 | 2:07 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 665 Points   |   Tied for 160th

Yeah I suppose that’s fair. But, his ability to take a punch definitely degraded after that war with ponzi. He fought a lot more timid against Khaos & then got slept. I could see Jake clipping him; he’s not the best striker but he does hit deceptively hard 

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

DamienHandel420
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07.05.2023 | 7:37 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 620 Points   |   Tied for 401st

Hard to belive his chin is destroyed after fighter Ponzi, I think it more he's chin is not good to begin with, Baeza got dropped by Matt Brown who in his 40 before he's Ponzi fight, 2 other ufc fights were Sato and Hector Aldana,

I don't belive one fight at this stage of his career will destroy his chin that bad

* Edited at 07.05.2023, 7:39 PM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

AyyLmaonnaise
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07.05.2023 | 7:51 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 665 Points   |   Tied for 160th

He got dropped against brown because of his shoddy defense, not the durability. He dropped his hands while brawling with Matt brown which is just not an intelligent thing to do. When you have wars like the one he had with ponzi you usually aren’t the same again; he took an incredible amount of damage in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of that fight. Now getting starched in his last two hasn’t helped it much either. Maybe his chin isn’t glass yet but he’s clearly taken a lot of damage at an early age

And I agree that normally one tough fight doesn’t affect the chin but he got absolutely battered in that fight. You should rewatch it (also because it was a sleeper FOTY in 2020) to see what I mean. That was a brutal fight

* Edited at 07.05.2023, 7:52 PM ET *

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

CrimsonChinGuru
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07.05.2023 | 7:56 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 530 Points   |   Tied for 1690th

Matt Brown being 40 has 0 to do with his power, dude still putting ppl out.

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DamienHandel420
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07.06.2023 | 2:11 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 620 Points   |   Tied for 401st

Also Khaos and Fialho has that power, i don’t know if Ponzi ruin his chin,  I just don’t belive one fight will ruin you as a fighter, becuase if it did, people will be dead by now lol

I say this, Jake don’t have the power of Brown, Fialo or Williams 

* Edited at 07.06.2023, 2:16 AM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

AyyLmaonnaise
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07.06.2023 | 6:39 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 665 Points   |   Tied for 160th

I don’t think your understand how badly one war can affect your career. Look at Rory Macdonald for example, he was never the same after the lawyer rematch 

"“Unfortunately you can’t talk like that on FOX” - Joe Rogan"

el222
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07.06.2023 | 11:06 AM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 505 Points   |   Tied for 2246th

a good recent example is Dan Hooker, he has not been the same since the Poirier fight. one war can def change everything

* Edited at 07.06.2023, 11:06 AM ET *

2023.07.06 11:26 PM ET

bout status update

Semelsberger vs. Lainesse Changed from Confirmed to Cancelled
Kniferusty
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07.07.2023 | 9:44 AM ET

Predictions: 2 of 2 Winners, 0 Perfect, 130 Points   |   Tied for 5918th

I often wonder if getting badly choked unconscious several times is as detrimental as getting KO'd several times

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2023.07.07 2:05 PM ET

bout announced

Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic at 170 lbs (77.1 kg)
Joshjeffords
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07.07.2023 | 2:28 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 515 Points   |   Tied for 1989th

Ones like what Jones did to Machida have to cause permanent damage but in general, I doubt the damage is close.
Chokes seem the least damaging of all subs, really people shoulders, knees, ankles, arms break etc, never seen a broken neck.

"“I took no damage,” Hill said. “Most of the fall was me falling down"

banjo47
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07.07.2023 | 4:04 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 595 Points   |   Tied for 625th

Anybody know if the move to 170 is permanent for Medic or just taking a short notice fight to get back in the mix. Actually had high hopes for him at 55

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Amettxpc
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07.09.2023 | 3:26 AM ET

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 555 Points   |   Tied for 1311th

The problem that Baeza has is lacking of Fight IQ in Key moments:
- Baeza managed to hurt Khaos with calf kicks and was leading in the third round picking his shots until he decided to go wild with a power puncher like Khaos Williams.
- Baeza managed to hurt Fialho in the first round and he last minute of the first round instead of picking his shots, managing the advantage and looking for the finish in the next round, he wanted to exchange with Fialho giving him the space to catch him with a good hand that sent him to the canvas.
The worst of the case is that against Khaos his corner clearly told him not to seek an exchange with Khaos before the final round began and against Fialho the coaches told him to keep his composure and not neglect his defense.

Mathews is an experienced opponent, but Baeza seems to me like he has potential to be a Top 15 fighter before this losing streak, if he doesn't win the fight he'll end up out of the UFC.

* Edited at 07.09.2023, 3:26 AM ET *

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Grogers70426
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07.09.2023 | 4:17 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 465 Points   |   Tied for 3007th

Wood vs. Cachoeira
Priscila Cachoeira, TKO, R2
I like JoJo but Cachoeira is powerful and hits like she has bricks in her hands. I

Matthews vs. Baeza
Jake Matthews, TKO, R2
Not confident in this one

"Keep on keeping on"

Standard_Split
Standard_Split
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07.09.2023 | 11:37 AM ET

Some interesting early odds on this card:
Semelsberger only a -150 fav against Medic ? ...imo Semi should be around -250+ ...Medic is moving up a weight class on somewhat short notice (~6 weeks I think?)
Paulo Costa a dog (+105) against Aliskerov? ...recency bias, and Aliskerov is extremely hittable. 
Thoughts?
PiggyBank
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07.09.2023 | 3:31 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 525 Points   |   Tied for 1770th

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ahki718
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07.11.2023 | 1:49 AM ET

Locks

Matthew Semelsberger and Gabriel Bonfrim are locks

Page 6


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