Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 680 Points
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Tied for 22nd with 3 others
Your guys bar of looking bad are way lower than mine, maybe it comes from having my face. Can't blame you though, sometimes I get a strong gut feeling from weigh ins that is hard to actually justify objectively but which anecdotally seems to hold true in the outcome of the fight more often than not for me.
But people here have an entire list of fighters they think looked bad on a card where noone missed weight and only 2 fighters actually struggled with the scale (Mullarkey and Lacerda). Keep in mind many of them are almost killing themselves from internal organ failure. A bit beady eyes and a sligthly crazed look is to be expected.
For me a bad cut should constitute more than that, like Lacerda's weighing in last minute and looking like a starved zombie.
"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points
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Tied for 3215th
Kara-France vs. Albazi Amir Albazi, SUB, R3 Kai is good at hurting opponents but struggles putting them away. Albazi may get hurt early but eventually as the fight wears on Albazi will get him to the canvas and finish him.
Caceres vs. Pineda Daniel Pineda, TKO, R2 Everyone loves Caceres because the guy has grown up in the UFC but he isn't much of a finisher and is facing a very dangerous finisher. Those leg kicks of Pineda are going to give Alex real trouble and eventually render him a static target for Pineda to unload on.
Miller vs. Butler Jim Miller, SUB, R2 Butler has a nice submission game but Miller even at his current age is just levels ahead. On the feet this is a pretty even fight and Miller's recent opponents have been touching him up before being finished.
Elliott vs. Altamirano Victor Altamirano, TKO, R1 Elliot tends to do clownish ****, like dropping his hands and turning his back, when opponents begin landing on him. Altamirano with his akward yet quick movement is the wrong dude to do that against because he will chin you.
Silva vs. Souza Ketlen Souza, TKO, R2 Karine is a dangerous finisher for one round. Once that first round ends she will be there to be finished and Souza who has some nice boxing will be happy to oblige her. Souza has looked noticeably improved in every single fight I have seen of her.
Zaleski vs. Nurmagomedov Elizeu Zaleski, DEC Maybe we will see a new man out there today but unless Zaleski has fallen off majorly he should be able to outwork Abubakar who will be content going the distance. Abu just doesn't have that dog in him that his carried his relatives to great heights.
Santos vs. Munoz Jr. Daniel Santos, TKO, R3 Munoz has slick BJJ and some nice striking when his opponents give him room to work. Munoz may hurt Santos early, possibly even drop him, but eventually the pressure and pace of Santos will break Munoz who has a history of fading late in fights.
Arlovski vs. Mayes Don'Tale Mayes, TKO, R1 Mayes does have it in him to walk opponents down and unload. Usually when he does this it is late in the third round, in fights he is losing, but if he decides to go for it when he is still fresh he can get Arlovski out of there.
Castañeda vs. Gafurov Muin Gafurov, DEC Nathaniel Wood smoked Castaneda and Eddie Wineland was putting it on him as well before being finished. If Gafurov is in shape he should win this fight as long as he isn't sacrificing dominant positions for low percentage submission attempts.
Mullarkey vs. Naimov Jamie Mullarkey, TKO, R3 Naimov has good top control so if he can find his way to a dominant position in 2/3 rounds he can ride it out and win. He has looked better post DWCS but I still have concerns with his durability especially up a weight class on short notice.
Yu Frey vs. Reed Jinh Yu Frey, DEC The last time Reed fought a Fortis MMA fighter she was outgrappled for three rounds and I can see the same happening here. Jinh used a similar gameplan, to the one Sam Hughes used against Elise Reed, when she fought Gloria de Paula.
Lacerda vs. Blackshear Da'Mon Blackshear, DEC Lacerda has excellent BJJ but is a terrible scrambler, while Blackshear has terrible BJJ and is an excellent scrambler. Going with the guy who appears more durable and dangerous on the feet even if he is may be at a slight technical deficit.
Grishin vs. Lins Maxim Grishin, DEC Lins is going to need to knock Grishin out to win and the only man to do that in the last 12 years is Ankalaev.
Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 465 Points
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Tied for 1420th
Kara-France vs. Albazi Albazi, SUB KKF will hang with Albazi for 1-2 rounds before he realizes that Albazi can strike just as well as he can grapple. I see Albazi really taking his time knowing that KKF has pretty good TDD and counter wrestling. I truthfully don't know how Albazi will look late in the fight, but if Albazi has the success grappling that I think he will I don't see KKF lasting more than 15 minutes. His striking is wildly inaccurate and he relies on throwing a ton of volume to keep him afloat in many situations. I don't think he's going to be able to do that if he's had to get up 2-3 times in the first few rounds. KKF is super tough so I could see him going 25 minutes and not getting finished, but I will be impressed if the decision went his way. I think he probably needs a finish here which is not at all out of the realm of possibility. In easily his best performance to date, I think he finishes Askarov if that fight had championship rounds. I think his path to victory here is a similar scenario: hurt Albazi early before he can really implement his grappling. The more damage he inflicts early, the more likely it is that he wins. It will make it easier to defend takedowns and continue to throw the kitchen sink at Albazi in terms of volume. I see the opposite happening first. I think Albazi's striking has improved a lot and could just as easily see him dropping KKF and subbing him. Again, I think he takes a pretty patient approach and finds a late sub after KKF is to tired and damaged to continue. I'd say 70% confident here; I think Albazi is the real deal. I think the UFC is pretty much dying for a new contender at flyweight after showing their fanbase nothing but rematches as title fights for years now. Albazi will at worst be a fight away from the title with one of Royval/Figgy/Moreno after this if not the #1 contender.
Caceres vs. Pineda Pineda, SUB Skill for skill these guys are pretty even but I thought Pineda looked great in his return against Lutz. I simply see a power difference here and Cacares getting subbed, which is how he seems to lose half of his fights. If this fight hits the 3rd round it will definitely be interesting given the fact that Pineda is 37 and has known cardio issues. He got Lutz out of there right at the 1.5 round mark, so hard to gauge if he's truly been able to improve in that area at all. There's two narrow paths to victory here for Cacares: by decision or pretty late sub. I just think Pineda's pressure and grappling will get to Cacares before that.
Miller vs. Butler Miller, KO/TKO I haven't been able to find a lot of good tape on Butler but he actually seems decent. However, this is an all but impossible task up a weight class on super short notice for your UFC debut. Jim Miller is in a very good position to find a bonus somehow in this fight. Butler has good jiu jitsu but he would be a fool to try and engage Miller there. I see him starting off well but he will slowly but surely get pieced up on the feet. Not getting finished would be a win for Butler here. He's got some skill and seems pretty tough but there's obviously levels to MMA and Miller is several tiers above him.
Elliott vs. Altamirano Elliott, DEC This is a big jump in competition I'm not sure Altamirano is ready for. He will make a good showing of himself but I think the stars aligned really nicely for Elliot here after previously getting booked against Albazi and Nascimento. Mid-level confidence here because I genuinely think Altamirano has a shot given that his TDD is actually pretty good and he throws a ton of volume.
Silva vs. Souza Silva, SUB Silva is a tank. People will nit-pick her game but she's got a bread and butter and she seems pretty committed to it. She's going to win a lot of fights off of her physicality and her above average jiu jitsu/grappling. Souza seems decent but this is a rough first UFC fight and a loss I see aging well on her record.
Zaleski vs. Nurmagomedov Nurmagomedov, DEC I didn't really love how Zaleski looked at weigh ins. He's battling the long layoff and apparently no longer on PEDs but at least looked good physically on the scales. He just seemed kind of awkward/uncomfortable during their faceoff. I think this is a pretty tough fight for him coming off of the long layoff once you step back and realize he hasn't won a fight against a good WW in 3 years. Abubakar is kinda under-rated and should be able to hang with Zaleski wherever this fight ends up. I do think the best version I've seen of Zaleski probably finishes Abubakar but I just have no idea what I'm going to get coming off the layoff. Close fight but I think Nurmagomedov ends up taking 2 rounds.
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 515 Points
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Tied for 775th
Kara-France vs. Albazi Amir Albazi, DEC can never count kai out, but i'll say the big shot doesn't come up tonight and amir just like bearhugs him.
Caceres vs. Pineda Alex Caceres, DEC alex is probably gonna be too rangey to get caught by pineda's big entries and too slick to get stuck clinching and tripped.
Miller vs. Butler Jim Miller, DEC i'll say jim controls range early as butler adjusts to the big stage, question is what happens in r2 if nobody takes it to the ground?
Elliott vs. Altamirano Tim Elliott, DEC kinda wanna say tim finds a sub, but i'll stop short and say he gets some td's. victor is gonna be ripping kicks though so tim is gonna have to be careful dipping his head.
Silva vs. Souza Karine Silva, SUB, R2 i always wanna pick decision, but fiiiiiiine i'll take sub for the girl with 100% finish rate this time, fine.
Zaleski vs. Nurmagomedov Elizeu Zaleski, TKO, R2 abubakar is probably the most underwhelming fighter with the last name nurmagomedov and this is the first time the ufc has lined him up with someone coming off a win. i'm gonna ride with zaleski, he's been fun regardless of the doping, and he's still the dude who ko'd strickland.
Santos vs. Munoz Jr. Daniel Santos, TKO, R2 feeling like munoz is gonna get stuck striking with santos.
Arlovski vs. Mayes Andrei Arlovski, DEC i don't expect mayes to bully andrei grappling so andrei can probably win this as a sparring match.
Castañeda vs. Gafurov Muin Gafurov, DEC i think gafurov is gonna push striking early, but really wants to wrestle.
Mullarkey vs. Naimov Jamie Mullarkey, TKO, R2 name is intimidating, but it's short notice, up a weight class, and he's had mediocre competition. so that means i'm gonna take jamie for a highlight reel.
Yu Frey vs. Reed Elise Reed, DEC i'm terrible with both of these ladies, but i feel like jinh always needs her opponents to fade in order to win and elise's main talking point is her heart.
Lacerda vs. Blackshear Luan Lacerda, DEC feeling like luan will be sharper standing and offer more, eventually forcing blackshear into bad shots where can scramble.
Grishin vs. Lins Maxim Grishin, DEC seems destined to see scorecards, can't see either guy really turning it on, guess i'll say maxim comes with more volume?
Predictions: 5 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 300 Points
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Tied for 3601st
Kara-France vs. Albazi Kai Kara-France, DEC Originally had Albazi by Sub but I switched. I just feel that Kai has fought the tougher competition and seems to have made some significant improvements in his game. If he can stay away from the grappling exchanges, he should be able to out strike Albazi here.
Elliott vs. Altamirano Victor Altamirano, DEC I want to badly ignore Elliot's chaotic personal life and just strictly analyze from a matchup perspective but it's hard to. This is a fight that Tim Elliot can win but not sure where his head is.
Santos vs. Munoz Jr. Daniel Santos, TKO, R1 Should be a fun scrap here. I look for Willy Cat to bring that pressure.
Arlovski vs. Mayes Andrei Arlovski, DEC As long as the UFC continues to sign Arlovski to these middling Heavyweight greasers, I am going to side with him. He always seems to have the knack to squeak out a greasy decision. I don't see much upside from Mayes to finish this fight. I see Arlovski to edge out another one.
Yu Frey vs. Reed Elise Reed, DEC We all lose here.
Lacerda vs. Blackshear Luan Lacerda, SUB, R2 aWish I could back Blackshear because I genuinely like this guy as a prospect but basically has been chewed up through the UFC with two tough matchups. I see no change here. I see Blackshear matched up against a strong grappler who should be able to get to the takedowns and control Blackshear. Lacerda should be able to get to a sub here.
Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 425 Points
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Tied for 2057th
Kara-France vs. Albazi Kai Kara-France, DEC This is a really hard fight to predict. KKF has good takedown defense and he's great at defending chokes when someone is on his back. He has a brick of a right hand, too. Albazi has got pretty good takedowns and top control and he slides in and out range really well. Sometimes he does too much waiting on the feet though. I think KKF lands more damage on the feet and will be able to stay safe on the ground. Really close fight
Caceres vs. Pineda Alex Caceres, DEC The biggest problem here for Caceres is the leg kicks. Yusuff chewed up Caceres' leg and Pineda has got powerful leg kicks. Caceres is much taller and longer though, and he's pretty evasive. Pineda also doesn't have a very good gas tank so I see Caceres taking over late.
Miller vs. Butler Jim Miller, SUB, R2 Ngl i know nothing about Butler. I'll just choose Miller because Butler took this on 2 days notice and is fighting up a weight class against a crafty vet.
Elliott vs. Altamirano Tim Elliott, DEC Big jump in competition for Altamirano. He looked pretty underwhelming last time out. I think Elliott should win this convincingly by mixing in the wrestling with his unorthodox striking.
Santos vs. Munoz Jr. Daniel Santos, TKO, R2 Santos should win with pressure I think, maybe even mixing in the wrestling. Munoz is much longer than him though and he's got good punches down the middle.
Mullarkey vs. Naimov Jamie Mullarkey, TKO, R2 Mullarkey has got a great chin and he's pretty powerful. I don't know much about Naimov but I think Mullarkey should take this.
Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points
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Tied for 484th
Kara-France vs. Albazi Amir Albazi, DEC Not alot of decisions tonight. The trend continues with a Unanimous Dec. 49-46, 48-47x2. Amir puts it on Kai, I think it stays close although Amir really wins the damage department. Great fight.
Caceres vs. Pineda Alex Caceres, DEC 29-28x3 Uni really entertaining, and close fight and I'm sure some will think Pineda takes this one. I think He could but leaning Leeroy.
Miller vs. Butler Jim Miller, TKO, R1 A pissed off Miller is coming. I think he makes quick work of an opponent he should make quick work of. vicious Right hook.
Elliott vs. Altamirano Tim Elliott, DEC 29-28x3 Uni. Close first round but Tim takes over throughout the fight, a game Magnifico keeps it close. controversial dec.
Silva vs. Souza Karine Silva, DEC 30-27, 29-28, 28-29 Split dec. Ketlen takes over in the 3rd round and creates a scary scorecard announcement.
Zaleski vs. Nurmagomedov Abubakar Nurmagomedov, DEC Split Dec 30-27x2 28-29x1
Santos vs. Munoz Jr. Daniel Santos, TKO, R2 Huge combo sends Munoz Jr. Unconscious.
Arlovski vs. Mayes Andrei Arlovski, DEC 30-27x2 30-26 Uni by Andrei.
Castañeda vs. Gafurov Muin Gafurov, TKO, R2 TKO late 2nd by a body shot that leaves Mexi hurt on the cage. Punches, ref steps in .
Mullarkey vs. Naimov Jamie Mullarkey, TKO, R3 Elbows and ground and pound.
Yu Frey vs. Reed Elise Reed, SUB, R2 RNC
Lacerda vs. Blackshear Luan Lacerda, DEC 29-28 Uni x3
Grishin vs. Lins Philipe Lins, DEC 29-28x2 28-29 Split Dec, Ugly but grueling fight.
