UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@dfox it definitely looks a lot better. People also way overrate marinas tdd, it’s not good at all. But even more, Virna will pull guard & force girls to play into her game. In the first round against hill, she couldn’t get the takedown against the cage, so she went for a heel hook & won the rest of the round with control. We’ve seen time and time again that when marina gets taken down, she does not get back up & against better grapplers, she gets totally dominated when on the ground. Virna is a serious sub threat & I think if she gets Marina down at all, she’s gonna stay there the whole round 

Zhumagulov vs. Estevam
Rafael Estevam, DEC
lock

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Joseph Holmes, SUB, R2
high ceiling 6,4

Santos vs. Munoz Jr.
Johnny Munoz Jr., DEC
usa in this hoe

Was reading back through some comments and you said Henry hasn't fought anyone in their prime at 135 and that is just not true. 

Marlon Moraes was at his peak when Henry fought him and finished him. He was 22-5-1, still 31 years old (Younger than Aljo's is now), and was on a 4 fight win streak with 3 1st round KOs. One of those KOs being one of the most vicious KOs I have ever seen on Aljo.

The win doesn't look as big in hindsight, but we had not seen the quit in Moraes or his chin issues until that fight. That was a big win that is being looked at poorly because Moraes fell off the click after that fight.

Jandiroba submission. Free cash

* Edited at 05.04.2023, 12:59 AM ET *

Here's a question for all of you to chew on. Do you think a prime Demetrious Johnson would beat Alja Co Main Sterling?

Muhammad vs. Burns
Belal Muhammad, DEC
So insanely shocked that Burns is getting 67% of the votes at the time of writing this. Absolutely insane.

Lol cringeboy lost twice to dj robbery of the decade.
First time he got murked by one of the least powerful strikers in mma.

Belal gets hit alot, even Brady was landing clean in round 1. He's there to be hit.

I have to say I am stunned. I've always wondered why these so called expert cappers on YouTube are always selling their crappy picks. I now understand. 

Just was listening to a very popular podcast with thousands of viewers. And they were talking about their "Units". Apparently their units are $100. And as usual they were talking big about value and line moves etc etc and how they won't bet someone now the line has moved by 0.3 decimals. 

Then they picked an underdog. And said they were going to play a 1/4 unit on this amazing pick of theirs. I was like... hold on... 1/4 unit? $25 bucks? To win  $25? On your amazing underdog play?

So on the very few bets you actually hit you are making what... $25 bucks? Minimum wage? Are you actually kidding me. 

I cannot believe that these people spend so much time analysing fights and picking losers just to throw $25 at their amazing pick. I am actually astonished. 

Guys listen to me. I am not knocking anyone for the unit value they play. Not everyone has money. But if your unit is anything less than $1000 you need to be playing parlays to make any kind of money.

Don't listen to these *******es talking about value and line movement. Pick a few locks, add in a good underdog and a few props and parlay them. Don't play for pennies and lose those pennies. Make some actual money.

Listen to Andrew and Bananas on here. They will tell you how to actually make some real money. Not $25 bucks on the one dog pick that hits while you lose $100 on all your other ****** picks that don't come through. 

These guys were boasting about how they were up 25 units for the year. I was like thats decent. But now I realise thats $2500 in a year. No wonder they sell their ****** picks. I make that with one small throwaway bet. Don't listen to these morons. Parlay.

* Edited at 05.04.2023, 3:54 AM ET *

This whole thing about "units" and "value" and how you only bet if the "value" reaches a certain amount... who do you think made up these rules? The idiot cappers on YouTube and Twitter who keep quoting these theories like it's gospel? Do you guys actually think they came up with any of these ideas themselves? They are parroting what they have heard other people say and repeat. And talk it up as if it's their own theory they made themselves. 

These are all theories and ideas made by the bookies. The same people who set those "lines" and determine the "value". Then they get popular touts like Gianni the **** who are sponsored by them to spread these theories with vague statistical data (all of which is fudged and never proven in any kind of statistical analysis). And these foolish cappers gobble up this crap and present to everyone as their own ideas, research and theories. Just don't fall for it. Absolute nonsense 

* Edited at 05.04.2023, 4:01 AM ET *

If that's what I said then you're right, Moraes does count for that. I was more thinking of the fact that Aljo has beaten Yan and Sandhagen which are both a tier above anyone Henry has defeated at 135 (since Dom was past his prime).
I would say 125 as well since imo Henry lost to DJ twice, but that's another can of worms.

Rah123 I don't understand why people talk stats in MMA betting, just bet on the winner and get money. 

If betting was that easy, Bookies will not exist because people won't be losing money, They're no easy way to win money, If you have a system that work, Do that, But most people shouldn't gamble unless you enjoy doing it and be responsible, also, People like to speak like they cool on the internet and lie because it easy, But they not making the money you think, If they were have betting things to do then talk on a forem

the way gambiling compiny work is that they line the fight correctly, But take like 5% of the line,  And If you think about it, Every favourtes should be the same size as the dog if you use the Amercan system Eg +200,-200, -123, +123, So don't think they an easy way to win money

* Edited at 05.04.2023, 4:47 AM ET *

After Sterling put a terrifying beating on Cejudo. You may loss your sleep and then reconsider my pick advice

A prime mighty Mouse will still lose to prime sterling. Too small.

Bro you just said the smartest thing Ive heard all week on this forum.

It really is that simple. Watch tape. Bet who you think will win. People over complicated everything and half the people who bet just look at stats and tapology records.

Most people on here won't get or understand what you are saying though. That I promise you.

@Zion Don’t dissapear brother for long time after UFC288. I understand you have confidence and belief in Aljo , even though Cejudo will win . But there is nothing bad in that having that kind of Conor McGregor mindset like you have 😁 dont worry we will not tease you a lot about your Aljo pick after the fight ends 😊 Only love , only positive energy brother 

Я давно не писал, прошлый раз налепили мне плохой отзыв.Остановитесь!

Король душевой кабины имеет последний шанс сделать грязным соперника. Также судьба была против, сейчас она помощник.Тёмный потом белый (сейчас светлый).

Жалгас алга!Взрыв на макаронной фабрике очень ровный! 11/10!Все молодые будут забиты локтями!

Zhalgas Zhumagulov,DEC