UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Locks are imo
1. Nate the train
2. Manel Kape
3. Steven Peterson
4. CJ Vegara

Nate is never a lock. He’s more of a fighter than someone who tries to win if that makes sense. He’s there to entertain and throw down, not do the smart thing to win. Just remember, he got ko’ed by Herbert burns of all people. I don’t think lingo is good but Nate isn’t crazy trustworthy 

I had money on Nate vs Onama and I've never clenched as hard as I did that fight with all of Nate's antics. It was also one of the most exciting matches I've ever watched because of it.

Lingo is dog **** 

These are today's line movements from opening odds:
[Bold indicates Line Movement Direction - NOT predicted winner]

Sandhagen vs. Vera - 31 pts in favor of Sandhagen
Holm vs. Kunitskaya – 62 pts in favor of Holm
Landwehr vs. Lingo– 50 pts in favor of Lingo
Barber vs. Lee – 70 pts in favor of Barber
Perez vs. Kape – 35 pts in favor of Perez
Duraev vs. Njokuani– 293 pts in favor of Ngokuani
Lutz vs. Pineda – 45 pts in favor of Lutz
Alexander vs. Peterson - 13 pts in favor of Alexander
Giles vs. Parsons - 10 pts in favor of Giles
Da Silva vs. Vergara - no movement
Ogden vs. Torres – 40 pts in favor of Ogden
Cowan vs. Vidal – 322 pts in favor of Cowan
https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/odds

* Edited at 03.22.2023, 4:32 PM ET *

Nate Landwheir did the same thing that Kevin Holland did which was let up your opponent when you better off on top of them, People said when Kevin Holland did it, It was the lowest fight IQ, But Landwheir did the same thing, But because he won and maybe less relevent, It isn't as bad, But He almost got KO'd in the third when he could of gotten an easy win

Nate the Train is a meme fighter who looking to entertain the fan, I love to watch him fight tho, But I'm in no rush to bet him as a big favorite  

* Edited at 03.22.2023, 4:32 PM ET *

@taybazza I get that, but trust me you are never 100% with Nate. He doesn’t care about winning he cares about entertaining. I would pick lingo to beat Herbert and yet Herbert ko’ed Nate. This is one of those fights where Nate should roll lingo on paper, but could be a lot closer than it actually should be. Through 5 ufc fights, he’s lsot to guys he should’ve destoryed and beaten guys who were supposed to kill him. You never know what you’re getting 

* Edited at 03.22.2023, 4:35 PM ET *

@ayy true I'll put money on Nate regardless cuz it hunk Lingo is a can and I love Nate 

Lingo is far from a can. People are underestimating him

Lingo is not bad at all. He's not very good at anything but he is very well rounded, no major weaknesses. He does carry major power though and we know the style of fighting that Nate has makes him take a lot of shots - he doesn't move his head much.
I also don't think that Kape is a "lock". His ground game has looked very bad and Perez is a pretty good wrestler. Same goes for the Chidi vs Duraev fight. It is gonna depend a lot of whether Perez and Duraev choose to grapple or if they gonna try to win a kickboxing match and most likely lose then. With both underdogs having clear paths to victory by exploiting their opponents weaknesses I would be careful betting the two favorites here.

Lingo does not carry "major power"

changed my bet from chito to sandhagen. im gonna be super pissed if chito ends up winning...

Go watch his finishes in LFA. He is powerful but he hasn't showed it in the UFC yet.

GILES vs. PARSONS

3 Inch Reach advantage Giles has over Parsons

5.22 Strikes Landed per Min. for Parsons

3.19 Takedown Average/15 min. for Parsons

100% Takedown Defense for Parsons

4.0 Submission Average/15 min. for Parsons

336 Days since Parsons fought inside the octagon.   Parsons needed hand surgery after Elder fight.

90% Finish rate for Parsons

Parsons' loss to Daniel Rodriguez is forgivable - Rodriguez is a beast and too much man for anyone to handle for a short notice debut. Parsons took that fight on 8 days notice.  He hadn’t been on a plane in six years, He'd never been to Vegas.

Giles will not be bothered by the crowds, lights, TV appearance, etc.  The fight is also in Gile's home State of Texas.  Brings up the controversy over the Krause win - Giles' BJJ coach [Eric Williams] was also judge Joe Soliz' BJJ coach (Joe Soliz was the judge scoring that fight that gave it to Giles).

Both are BJJ brown belts. Both started training MMA around 2011.  Parsons is a Taekwondo brown belt.

Typical weight cut for Parsons is about 15 pounds.  For Giles its about 18 pounds.

Giles had a syncopal episode during UFC on ESPN+ 31 wherein his fight against late replacement Kevin Holland was canceled.

-Roman Dolidze was a late replacement fighting on short notice (10 days notice).
-Giles vs Cosce was one of the most boring, inactive fights ever (35 combined total sig. strikes landed throughout 3 rounds).  Cosce was coming off a 2 year layoff as well. Even then, Cosce took Giles' back and almost sunk in a Von Flue then almost sunk an arm triangle choke.  Giles really missed opportunities against Cosce that make one question his fight IQ.
-Bevon Lewis got cut from the UFC...

Parsons is definitely the more active fighter (inside the octagon), possibly the better wrestler, certainly the more dangerous grappler.  Parsons is co-owner of Elevate MMA and is looking to make a name for his gym through a victory over Giles.

Giles is not a major KO threat standing up and will probably try to clinch rather than fight technical.  Parsons has a 100% takedown defense and will use the clinch to take Giles to the mat, where the waterboarding begins...

Prediction: Parsons by Unanimous Decision.


 

* Edited at 03.22.2023, 6:00 PM ET *

Thinking it's a prime "you're not good as we're advertised" win for chidi. And I'm pretty sure I picked against him falsely a few times. But after watching tape this seems like a a well over -200 fav. And it's -145 now. I can see why people would like duraev tho, should I wait for a better line or bet now?

The only bet I have currently is lingo/Landwehr dngtd at -150. Nobody lingo has fought has brought that kinda pressure and sub threat, and meanwhile that style leaves Nate open to get caught and finished like he has been twice, and if nothing else lingo can hit hard. 

Preston Parsons has never beat anyone good in his weight class. He's not a very good striker and grapplers like Chiesa would maul him. He literally got pieced up by Daniel Rodriguez, who is a fringe top 15 talent. I don't see how he beats anyone in the top 15