Topic: UFC Fight Night
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
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11.10.2022 | 10:12 PM ET
Responses Page 34
02.23.2023 | 10:43 AM ET
@Waste
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 420 Points | Tied for 1764th
I'd never encourage anybody to stray away from wanting to learn about themselves but I would be careful with giving your DNA away to any of those companies. Personally, I've done it and used Ancestry.com and don't regret it but I do worry that my genetic information is now just floating around the ether. Just do some research before you start spitting in tubes.
02.23.2023 | 10:43 AM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 0 Perfect, 280 Points | Tied for 3485th
02.23.2023 | 10:49 AM ET
gregory
Predictions: 7 of 10 Winners, 4 Perfect, 505 Points | Tied for 497th
"Jarno Errens, Damir Hadzovic"
02.23.2023 | 10:51 AM ET
Predictions: 5 of 6 Winners, 1 Perfect, 315 Points | Tied for 3179th
02.23.2023 | 10:55 AM ET
Prediction Comments
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points | Tied for 2679th
André Muniz, SUB, R2
for anyone interested in the display of high level BJJ, this fight right here should be a treat regardless of the outcome. this fight IMO, as weird as it sounds, reminds me of the grappling version of Fiziev vs Gaethje. two very chaotic strikers/grapplers but one side's madness (Muniz - Fiziev) is described by actual technicality and methodicality while the other side's madness (Allen - Gaethje) mainly exists because they often fail to ascend to the level of technicality that their opponents offer.
I'll do it differently this time and talk about value bets for this matchup at the very end of the breakdown.
starting off with Andre Muniz, there's no other way to put it other than the fact that Muniz might genuinely be the best BJJ player in the entire UFC right now and when you really closely examine it, it's probably not even close either. to go along with his BJJ wizardry, he's got decent, methodical wrestling and elite clinch work up against the fence. the only "blemish", obviously, is his striking which IMO isn't that big of a deficit as people are making it out to be. he has basic striking with a couple of very obvious flaws but at the same time, he seems to be aware of incoming threats and his situational awareness doesn't seem to be too bad either.
offensively, beginning with his grappling, Muniz is a very very unorthodox BJJ player who succeeds in turning his unorthodox qualities into unique angles, looks and opportunities for submissions or positional advances. Muniz does have the ability to turn his opponent's mistakes (mainly them overswinging or throwing slow telegraphed kicks and them being caught) into successful takedowns but, on top of that, his actual wrestling is very methodical and reactive and it can be broken down in concrete logical steps. Muniz will usually gauge the distance with a leaping check right hook and depending on how his opponent reacts, he will quickly level change into a single leg. this is where the reactive part of Muniz's wrestling comes into play. if his initial single leg is defended well, he is very precise in making the decision to turn it into a high crotch single leg and then run the pipe. if his opponent is still showing good balance and takedown defense by isolating Muniz's off-hand wrist (which IMO is the most successful way to deal with Muniz's singles because if he locks his hands on your leg, you're most likely going down), he moves into the next steps of his wrestling and either starts looking for trips or turns the single leg into a double leg. if his opponent is still successfully defending his takedown attempt, he is aware enough to abandon the double leg and quickly secure a body lock, using his size and capitalizing on the incorrect hip movement reaction to a bodylock that a lot of fighters make to drag his opponent down. again, if the takedown attempt is still somehow unsuccessful, Muniz's wrestling bag is still not empty and this is where his elite clinch work comes into play. he is ridiculously good at establishing the butterfly hooks up against the cage and a lot of the time fighters, in fear of being dragged down, will make mistakes during this exchange which usually leads to them turning their backs to Muniz, giving him the opportunity to backpack them.
moving on to his actual BJJ and ground game, like I said, he can very easily be characterized as a very unique and unorthodox grappler. what makes him so unique and unorthodox is his insane fixation with arm hunting. everything he does from the moment the fight hits the mat is done with the intent of isolating his opponent's arm. the craziest/weirdest thing about his fixation with arm isolation is that he sticks to it in positions that you generally do not really want to be doing it. more specifically, he will purposefully ignore neck attacks from the back position and slowly try to set up the armbar instead. additionally, even from full mount he makes it a point to try and set up triangles and armbars instead of maximizing his ground and pound damage output. obviously, this isn't necessarily a bad or wasteful thing as he does it at such a high level that, even in the odd positions that he goes for it, it ends up being successful way more often than not and, most importantly, it becomes the most dangerous when Muniz is operating in open guard or half guard. in relation to arm isolation, a small tactic that very high level bjj players like Aspinall and Muniz use in the half guard position is they will posture up and give their opponents two choices: either get massively ground and pounded or be forced to reach up to try and control their opponent's posture which in turn means they're exposing their arms to kimura attacks (lots of the time the kimura attack is a fake, leading to positional advancement into side control or full mount). lastly, muniz's love for arm attacks from the back position usually leads to him prefering the seatbelt position over the body triangle which in itself is a pretty interesting choice.
as far as his striking goes, I won't sugarcoat it and make it out to be better than it really is. it's very very basic with some very easily noticable flaws. starting with the positives, he has modified his striking to compliment his wrestling and grappling very very well. he has decent kicks out of the southpaw stance and will keep pestering you with them until you make a mistake that he can capitalize on with his grappling. his reaction time to incoming shots is decent and he has developed the leaping check right hook as a way of closing the distance. moving on to the negatives which, unfortunately, outweigh the positives. his footwork isn't exactly great and in isolated moments he makes it seem like he's flatfooted/off balance. he has low activity with his hands and his wide stance potentially exposes his lead leg to calf kicks. on a more technical note, his mechanics aren't great and a lot of the time he will overswing his punches. additionally, he has the bad habit of dipping his head to the right for absolutely no reason (especially when he's throwing the left cross), making him susceptible to the left high kick or left hook counters (Allen doesn't really throw those strikes that much though). another bad habit he has developed is his inability to consistently maintain his left hand guard in place, foolishly dropping it at times (in combination with his habit of dipping his head to the right, the opening for a right cross counter over the top as Muniz is bringing his head back into position after dipping it is definitely there - requires perfect timing though). lastly, he appears to struggle with defending the kicks to the body (this might end up being crucial in this matchup as Allen loves throwing the right kick to the body) and the verdict on how good his chin is still isn't out (Arroyo staggered him with a front kick to the face but Muniz seemed to recover really well on the stool inbetween rounds)
it's time to talk about Brendan Allen now and it's fair to say I'm not really impressed with him. he has very sloppy striking and terrible striking defense (was getting pieced up by Sam Alvey for almost a whole round before finally knocking him down), he has very questionable takedown defense and he seems to lack the appropriate clinching game to successfully defend takedown attempts (Malkoun was repeatedly finding success with the butterfly hooks up against the fence and with the high crotch single leg) and, to his credit, he has very very good BJJ. he is a very inconsistent fighter and, as weird as it sounds, he has looked way better in his losses than he has in his wins. more specifically, his recent run has been very underwhelming as he was getting clocked again and again by Sam Alvey of all people, he was taken down at will by Malkoun and then ended up winning the fight with a terribly wrong decision and Jotko was having his way in the half guard position (a position in which Muniz excels) until his subpar fight IQ kicked in and Allen managed to secure a sweep into a reversal and eventually into a submission victory.
on a more technical note regarding his striking, he possesses decent right kicks to the body (very important in this matchup), right high kicks, oblique kicks and calf kicks (also very important in this matchup) but at the same time they appear to be slow and telegraphed, making them very catchable and very open to counters over the top. his jab is thrown scarcely and lacks the mechanical smoothness of a good striker. additionally, he overswings his punches and ends up dropping his right hand guard very blatantly. regarding his grappling, he's a very chaotic BJJ player who is always looking for sweeps, reversals and if he feels like he has the striking advantage and you choose to grapple with him, he will create endless scrambles to try to get back up to his feet (something that might end up costing him this fight is the frequency of his scrambling and how predictable his body movement and the direction he turns his body to during scrambles becomes). the specific areas and techniques he struggles with are defending the high crotch single leg, clinch-fighting, defending the butterfly hooks (largely due to his long legs) and, at times, he seems content with being taken down and allowing people into half guard.
time for my prediction and I gotta say it's not exactly the most straight-forward matchup ever. a lot of the weaknesses that Brendan Allen has play exactly right into Muniz's biggest strengths - more specifically: Allen struggles badly at defending the exact takedowns and the exact clinch-fighting techniques that Muniz is going to deploy against him (single leg - high crotch single leg - butterfly hooks), Allen appears to be content with people staying in half guard against him (Muniz is at his best and the most dangerous when he is operating from the half guard), Allen's grappling is characterized by a lot of scrambles during which he loves turning his body into a specific direction and with a specific pattern (the more scrambles, the more movement and the more body turning that Allen does, the more predictable it becomes and high quality openings for a submission like the armbar are created for an elite bjj player like Muniz), Allen is prone to dropping his right hand guard (Muniz could look to expose that with his pattent left high kick). on the other hand, two of the most glaring weaknesses that Muniz has in his striking game, could potentially play into some of Allen's standup strengths - more specifically: Muniz struggles with defending the right kicks to the body (one of the most used striking weapons of Allen is the right kick to the body), Muniz has a wide stance with his lead leg exposed (Allen possesses the calf kick and the oblique kick in his arsenal and in theory could chop up Muniz's lead leg), Muniz dips his head to the right a little too much and lastly I tend to believe Allen is the more durable fighter with a slightly better chin and slightly better cardio. there's many scenarios that could potentially play out in this fight and I think most of them, in theory, result in Muniz winning the fight. IMO the most probable scenario is Allen having momentary success on the feet with the calf/oblique kicks (capitalizing on Muniz's wide stance and exposed lead leg), continuing said success on the feet with the right kick to the body until he randomly overextends, makes a mistake and Muniz easily closes the distance with the feint leaping check right hook, grabs ahold of a single leg and slowly works his way into a takedown (described Muniz's wrestling approach above). from the takedown and onwards, Muniz should be able to easily get into half guard and start dictating the pace of the fight, potentially leading to a submission (most likely armbar or modified triangle). it's worth noting that Muniz could also win a dominant unanimous decision victory instead of snatching up the submission (this is largely due to him "failing" to submit Uriah Hall but at the same time it's worth mentioning that the reason he didn't get the submission in that fight is because of how incredibly sweaty Hall was - a lot of these elite high level BJJ players spend a lot of time grappling in the Gi and end up getting caught off guard by the amount of sweat involved in MMA grappling exchanges).
in terms of betting value on this matchup, I think both the ML on Muniz and a few of the props are borderline treasures. some of the bets I like the most:
1) Muniz wins and over 0.5 = 1.80 - IMO this is the most valuable prop in this matchup (Muniz has gone over 0.5 rounds in every single one of his UFC fights except one, Allen has never won or lost a UFC fight in under 0.5)
2) Muniz ML = 1.46 - managed to catch it at 1.54 on a single bet (definitely worth sticking on a secondary parlay)
3) Over 0.5 = 1.22 - you very rarely get this type of value on over 0.5 bets (better value than Solecki, Suarez, Magomedsharipov, Kelly, Clarke, Mokhonoana etc etc)
4) and lastly if you WANT to bet on Muniz but you are unsure, you can always hedge with any of the Allen bets as there's really high odds on them (I don't think I will be hedging because I'm high on Muniz)
me personally, I'm looking to stuff Muniz ML at ~1.46 and the Muniz wins and over 0.5 prop at 1.80 odds on my secondary and third parlays and at the same time I'm acknowledging the fact that I'm a bit biased towards Muniz in this breakdown
* Edited at 02.23.2023, 2:58 PM ET *
02.23.2023 | 10:56 AM ET
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points | Tied for 2679th
* Edited at 02.23.2023, 10:58 AM ET *
02.23.2023 | 10:56 AM ET
Predictions: 7 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 425 Points | Tied for 1645th
Yeah the story of the tribes of Israel and the lost tribes of Israel is one of my favorite historical episodes, and also how it has all been distorted... Funnily ancient Israel and those holy stories seemed to coincide with the arrival of these obscure invaders, "The Sea People"
Thanks yeah I get you but I need to find out who I really am ya know
* Edited at 02.23.2023, 11:05 AM ET *
"I am the greatest blonde man in the world. I am Tru Viking." - Alexander Gustaffsson / "The world must bow to my glory. I am a God amongst mortals. They must pay me tribute in wine and concubine for my deeds." - Jon Jones "
02.23.2023 | 10:56 AM ET
Predictions: 7 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 425 Points | Tied for 1645th
"I am the greatest blonde man in the world. I am Tru Viking." - Alexander Gustaffsson / "The world must bow to my glory. I am a God amongst mortals. They must pay me tribute in wine and concubine for my deeds." - Jon Jones "
02.23.2023 | 11:07 AM ET
I like turtles
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 415 Points | Tied for 1862nd
This is for sure a randomly constructed UFC card. You never know though a lot of times cards like that produce some entertaining scraps.
"Beat ya into a living death"
02.23.2023 | 11:10 AM ET
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 420 Points | Tied for 1764th
But man, I definitely don't love the idea of betting against a decent fighter like Sakai who will be fighting like a man possessed trying to end the skid he's on. The damage he's taken on that skid is what's causing me serious pause.
02.23.2023 | 11:13 AM ET
@Gregory
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 405 Points | Tied for 1949th
I guess I'll take my betting advice elsewhere.
* Edited at 02.23.2023, 11:17 AM ET *
02.23.2023 | 11:19 AM ET
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 425 Points | Tied for 1675th
02.23.2023 | 11:20 AM ET
I LITERALLY HAVE GIVEN YOU GUYS 9 FREE WINNING PLAYS IN A ROW. LIKE IT OR NOT
02.23.2023 | 11:21 AM ET
andrew
Predictions: 5 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points | Tied for 2679th
I don't think anyone can fill in for your absence or even come close to offering nearly as good of an insight as yours
you and rah are a large reason why I visit this site and I would greatly appreciate it if you ignored gregory's inability to properly warn/punish jack, I know when you're as successful as you are it's kind of hard to swallow your pride for people like Jack but I think for my sake and rah's sake it has to be done..
* Edited at 02.23.2023, 11:21 AM ET *
02.23.2023 | 11:21 AM ET
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 430 Points | Tied for 1605th
02.23.2023 | 11:24 AM ET
Andrew1047
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 450 Points | Tied for 1288th
Let me help you with that. Write your betting advice on a piece of paper and roll it up, lay on your left side, lift your right leg up and slide the paper inside your rectum.
02.23.2023 | 11:29 AM ET
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 430 Points | Tied for 1605th
02.23.2023 | 11:30 AM ET
baremaras
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 405 Points | Tied for 1949th
That was a great breakdown on the Muniz fight, it was worth scrolling through that garbage by foppa and toilet waste wanderer to read it. I'll have him in a few of my parlays.
@SoftGregory 🖕
* Edited at 02.23.2023, 11:33 AM ET *
02.23.2023 | 11:48 AM ET
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 3 Perfect, 425 Points | Tied for 1675th
"There's 3 things in life that excite me. A woman, of course. Dinosaurs, and the violence of the Octagon" - GSP
02.23.2023 | 11:49 AM ET
@baremaras
Predictions: 6 of 10 Winners, 2 Perfect, 420 Points | Tied for 1764th
I'm really interested to see what you'll have in your parlays.
Any thoughts about the Charles Johnson fight ?