UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I mean I probably wouldn’t wanna fight muniz on short notice either lol

Hopefully Muniz gets short notice opp so we can make easy money

Kevin holland 

Or brad Tavares if his injury is healed up 

Doubt Muniz gets replacement..would be too good to be be true. He works over anyone outside top 5 easy

Idk holland could probably give him trouble on the feet

Holland at ww now though. Guys like muniz are why he ran 

* Edited at 04.02.2022, 4:53 PM ET *

I called Strickland v Pereira but Muniz should of got that fight with Sean 

Holland said he wants to fight in both divisions. He knows he’s not gonna be a title challenger so he wants to be like cowboy

They should work it in 273 at catchweight

So Imavov's issue was visa and not health related right?  Why not get the visa issue worked out for the April 16th card and have him fight Muniz since he was already training for a fight?  The rest of the division is already somewhat booked.  

Adesanya/Cannonier, Whittaker/Vettori, Strickland/Pereira, no chance Paulo Costa makes weight this quickly, Kelvin Gastelum is injured, Till/Hall will probably happen later this year, too soon for Brunson and Hermannson to come back... this leaves Imavov who was already training for a fight and had to pull out because of visa and not health issues.  Imavov vs Muniz would be a hell of a fight.  

Two prospects going at it in a very interesting matchup that is guaranteed action.  Either an Imavov TKO or a Muniz SUB.  

* Edited at 04.03.2022, 5:25 AM ET *

Idk if they could get his visa that fast but it would be good 

After all the insane line movement for the big favorites, usually closer to fight time, over the past while...I've decided to get these parlays figured out way ahead of time so i can lock in at least the bigger plays while the lines are reasonable. Even with that i missed a little initial line movement, but im already ready to lock in the next weeks when odds come out. Only problem with doing it early like this is when a fight gets called off or someone misses weight badly, you're stuck with the parlay with that leg pushed. Not a big deal if its a latter leg but could be trouble if its one of the anchors. 

 Anyway, lets get into the play. Basically its a set of parlays, that keeps the picks from the previous parlays and adds on further legs in order of pick confidence, money being risked, and potential return. Set up so as long as the Anchor (2 most confident fighters in parlay) you will at least break even.




Anchor: Sabatini (-350) + Klose (-420) -  -170ish - $100 to win $59.18:


Sabatini: Sabatini has looked phenomenal in his UFC run so far, besides some questionable moments on the feet against Emmers, who is solid. Laramie, replacing Tucker, is sorta a over-hyped young prospect who really isn't that great. Gets a bit of a push because Canada doesn't have much talent. He's also been out for a while, and building a concrete company which takes a **** ton of time and effort. They both have the same sorta game but Pat will show the levels to that game. He's also the much bigger person. Gimme Sabatini probably finish on ground but maybe very dominant decision. 


Klose: Jenkins is not at all UFC caliber. He has like a good use of his big frame to sometimes land a good knee or elbow, which is how he won a lot of his regional fights, but most of those he was losing until that point. He's one of these got a contract because took a last minute fight kinda deals. Klose is very solid wrestler, who would definitely outwrestle Wrong Shoe, who more or less ragdolled Jenkins in his last fight. Klose has shown a good chin against good strikers so i think he survives any possible big knee or elbow possibilty. He probably just does what Shoe did, strike for a little than get takedowns and finish him late. Gimme Klose by late submission. 




Second Ticket: Sabatini (-350) + Klose  (-420) + Kianzad (-310) + Baeza (-175)  -  +230 - $20 to win $46.17


Kianzad: Lansberg is over 40 now, and has not had the most impressive career when she wasn't. Kianzad in her prime age. Such a huge advantage at distance, way better and faster striking. Where she has had problems is against girls who are decent wrestlers, girls not over the hill, and she still manages to do enough to win those fights even if its quesionable. I really doubt Lansberg can offer enough grappling or wrestling to win here. On top of all that, they already fought when Kianzad was just beginning and Lansberg was at prime age (even though also new), and Kianzad KOed her. Give me Kianzad UD. 


Baeza: Baeza looks better in so many areas of this fight. Hes also arguably undefeated, I thought he beat Ponz and if he was allowed to fight through the Khaos KD and survive he would have won that decision 29-28 (not that it was a bad stoppage just saying if). Fialho may be competitive at distance, but has a big weakness to Baeza in grappling and wrestling. Also has a bad gas tank going way before the late notice Pereira fight. I think Baeza gets back on the winning column here. Give me Baeza by late stoppage.




Third Ticket: Sabatini (-350) + Klose  (-420) + Kianzad (-310) + Baeza (-175) + Alateng (-185)  - +415 - $20 to win $82.91


Alateng: Lets start with the obvious, Croom is going down to 135. Croom already gasses and throws labored strikes at 145. Seems like a clear case of things not going as planned in UFC, move down and try to weight bully. It doesn't usually work out. Croom always comes out hot which is usually a factor in him being noticeably different after round 1. Also not great takedown defense, and Alateng is a solid wrestler even though he doesn't use it much, but if Croom is jabbing his head off at range i'm confident he will. Which btw is the only real way i see Croom winning, just enough staying outside and jabbing to win. The size advantage is keeping Alateng from being higher up to be fair. Also don't think anyone Croom has fought hits as hard as Alateng even at 145 and 155 (in UFC anyway). Give me Alateng by a late stoppage or UD.




Fourth Ticket:  Sabatini (-350) + Klose  (-420) + Kianzad (-310) + Baeza (-175) + Alateng (-185) + Hughes (+167)  - +1270 - $10 to win $127.39


(Keep in mind before you go in on how one of the below were stupid picks, I already made decent profit and now i'm looking at possible value dogs to get crazy odds for the last small percentage of bettable money.) 


Hughes: The biggest problem with Nunes is she has a glaring hole in her game where if you get her down she has no answers. Not just the Carnalossi fight but previous as well. On the feet she is solid, i wouldn't make this pick if this was a kickboxing fight, and even then though, i think Hughes would be somewhat competitive. But you know its finally a fight on Hughes level, versus mostly short notice fights against some of the best in the division. And shes had her moments in these fights as well. The other thing I like about Hughes is when i watch her tape from old to recent you can see such a clear evolution in her skills. If you like live betting you can probably get her for a juicier price halfway through the first of end of first, shes usually a slow starter, but i think she wins the last 2 rounds clearly once she gets the wrestling going. Give me Hughes by UD or maybe a late sub.




Fifth Ticket:  Sabatini (-360) + Klose  (-420) + Kianzad (-310) + Baeza (-186) + Alateng (-190)  + Hughes (+165) + Hall (+175)  - +3500 - $6 to win $209.20


Hall: Well nevermind about this one completely since its been called off, basically the $6 just goes into the above leg. The reason i was going with Hall, for one never been subbed in his career, somewhat decent takedown defense/get ups as well. Muniz doesn't really pressure hard on the feet which may have leg to a more willing to strike Uriah. Muniz shown cardio issues if he can't get early sub as well. What really put me over the edge is seeing Uriah being able to survive Shoeface sub attempts and win the fight from what he did elsewhere (i say Shoeface still won that fight but not important now). Would have taken Hall, probably by KO. 




Hail Mary Ticket: Sabatini (-360) + Klose  (-420) + Kianzad (-310) + Baeza (-186) + Alateng (-190)  + Hughes (+165) + Hall (+175) + Yanan (+280)  -  +13500 - $3.18 to win $430.24


Yanan: First of all, the odds aren't as good without the Hall leg, probably around +5000, So, does Silva probably win this fight? Yes. But the public has lost their ******* mind betting her up to -400. Shes going up a weight class, fighting Yanan who is going to be a bigger stronger girl, and is still in the young fighter age range of potential big improvements. Yanan who is on a losing streak has been competitive in her fights against established 135ers. Yanan has a potential big wrestling advantage being that Silva gets outwrestled in most of her 125 fights (but usually wins via her striking or submission). In my mind this is like -200 for Silva at the max, so close to +300 is exactly what i'm looking for, for the Hail Mary leg. Give me Yanan, by controversial SD.

@DCpredictions, do any of these 5+ leg parlays ever hit for you?  

Only second week doing it, would have hit 8 legs last week but askarov ****** it up. 

Couldn't think of a worse way to bet. Sabatini or klose lose and every single bet is ****** 🤣

* Edited at 04.04.2022, 4:46 AM ET *

my parlay probably gonna be klose-buday-ogden. outside of some random ****, i dont see their opponents winning

I had a parlay locked up with Muniz but ******* Uriah pulled out 

dont trust wmma its ******

The PRP works. I made bank with it. It sounds dumb but it's very effective.