UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I'm now in 3 nearly identical challenges on a card where I made my picks at a first glance and won't be putting any more thought into. Let's go Tafa!

Yan vs. Esparza
Carla Esparza, DEC
Claudia Gadelha completely dominated Xiaonan Yan on the ground in the first round and probably would have managed to subdue her had she sought any submission attempts. I have learned the hard way that Carla Esparza should not be underestimated when making predictions, not only for being a former champion of the category but also for having been chosen by the judges in 3 consecutive closed decisions, it is Really debatable the fact that if Esparza managed to defeat Alexa Grasso, Michelle Waterson or Marina Rodriguez, since although she was overcome in the standing fight Esparza managed to carry and control her last opponents on the ground. Carla Esparza has better cardio than Claudinha and probably her strategy against Yan is the same that she used against her last opponents in order to achieve the same results. I think a Thug Rose vs. Carla Esparza 2, the fight against "Cookie Monster" would be a more logical option for Namajunas than an immediate rematch against Zhang Weili.

Tafa vs. Vanderaa
Justin Tafa, TKO, R1
Justin Tafa showed good KO power against Juan Adams and Carlos Felipe showed that he can fight smart using leg kicks, volume of blows and good movement (a shame about the decision of that fight against the Brazilian). Vanderaa's strategy depends a lot on looking for a takedown and finishing with ground and pound and against a fighter like Tafa I think he's more likely to get knocked out if he comes out very desperate for the takedown or if he decides to trade punches.

Medeiros vs. Hadžović
Yancy Medeiros, TKO, R2
Medeiros hasn't won a fight in 3 years, but the opposition he has faced in his last 5 fights is clearly higher than Damir Hadžović's level. Hadžović has been defeated by opponents who have brought him to the ground through a strategy of takedowns and was subdued in his last relatively easy fight by Renato Moicano (Moicano is a high level fighter, but his fight against Damir was a clear missmatch to favor of the Brazilian). Because Medeiros is not a fighter who usually takes the fight to the ground, Hadžović will find himself on Saturday in the distance where he has performed best during his run in the UFC, although the Bosnian is a striker I think Yancy Medeiros will be able to knock him out of the same way as he did with fighters like: Alex Oliveira and Erick Silva. Medeiros has several UFC submission wins so I'm not ruling out who can submit Hadžović if Medeiros hurts Hadžović on his feet.

@Tosh I get your point and in most cases I agree. But this is more like watching a bunch of drunk idiots trying to piss into a bottle across the room. If it were two competitors duking it out, you’d be 100% correct, but for this? The more pissers the funnier the show.

Think Cody Garbrandt has seen his peak and he will become another Jeremy Stephens at this point. Journyman gate keeper. After each loss he will make some speech how he will be back stronger then ever and continue until he is champion again. Then get knocked out every couple fights and have some wins here and there. Rinse and Repeat.

Rob Font, gonna find that Chin in 2nd or 3rd round.

Yeah I can definitely see NoChin end up as a gatekeeper, because I'm not sure he can even do well at 125 due to everyone being so fast, and these days they all seem to be hitting harder and harder

Yeah this feels like the wrong matchup at the wrong time for Cody. I see him getting clipped eventually.

Picking Dvorak vs Paiva this week for a prop finish at 2.60 (+160). Great value over the bookie here.

PredictionsUFC.com

Font(-125) (large) round 1.or 2
Tafa (-200) (large) round 1 or 2
Spencer (-125)(small)

Carla-Yan over 2.5/Ismagulov/Silva parlay is prob only play this wk...saving money for next 2 upcoming cards. 

Everytime I ever taken a huge betting hit, it’s always cause of a damn wmma sub when betting the over though *cough* Andrea Lee...Jennifer maia *cough* 

Is Yan ANY threat submission-wise from the bottom here?

I really like Hermansson in this fight. We saw Edmen fold like a lawn chair when Brunson was still in front of him after four minutes. And the things Brunson did, take him down and ground and pound him, are two things Hermansson is known for. It wont be blast double legs, and Joker isn't as good a striker on the feet. So the way he gets there will be different. But he will get takedowns, and he has brutal ground and pound when it gets there. And if that last fight was representative of Edmen's gas tank in general, the submissions will open up.

Hermansson, Bruno Silva, and Ismagulov, who says no?

Тофик крутит лампочку между моргальников Вундера. Серёжа вылепил вмятину и отверстие, искусственный художник. Бей в колокол, сынок, обед на столе, двойная Coco-Cola и суперглубокий сыр.

Justin Tafa, силейший KO, 1 RounD

Tafa vs. Vanderaa
Justin Tafa, TKO, R2
Volano Cazzottoni TAFA 100% KO finish rate

Dvořák vs. Paiva
David Dvořák, DEC
Dvorak imbattuto in UFC

Hermansson vs. Shahbazyan
Edmen Shahbazyan, TKO, R3
Finalizzatori entrambi, Shahbazyan giovane e gran Knockout Power

yep, that andrea lee submission ruined my big parlay. i had the fight going to decision.

100% Agreed. Cody will never be champion as long as Killers such as Petr Yan, Sterling, Dvalishvilli, Sandhagen & Font are there to take his head off or choke his ass out !

* Edited at 05.19.2021, 8:49 AM ET *

You won the prop finish in Mazany fight, That's very impressive. Congrats 👏

Pinnacle, Parimatch, Betonline, BET365 & 22Bet in order have the best betting lines. Right now I am getting Rob font at -108 on Parimatch. Haven't checked out others. Hope it helps alot of people here.

* Edited at 05.19.2021, 9:00 AM ET *

I see you lost your big bet on Schnell. Wishing I do have made my mind to help you right there but I was not feeling so generous back then. It really bothers me now. You bet on Schnell, honestly bets like these are very risky & unfortunately you ended up losing. I don't hand out my premium picks for free but if you want your lost money back I am handing it out for free this time. Only bet worth big dollars this month is Rob font. Pick Rob font vs Garbrandt. No props whatsoever but most likely Cody will get finished. But Rob font straight up at -108 on Parimatch is a steal. He should have been around -250. If you can manage to get together some cool nice amount after that big hit last week, you might just get it all back & then some more on top depends how much you bet. Everyone else reading this, I advise betting 21% of your total roll on Rob font. If you don't feel confident, Go ahead as you see fit.

My previous 3 premiums were Usman & Valentina Parlay UFC 261 , Jake Paul & Francis Ngannou UFC 260.


This is one of my premium picks which I charge money for but this time generosity has over taken me.

Final Note : According to me, Cody has slim chance to win so there is a small risk involved so that's why I advise you to don't go all out & bet 21% of your roll or whatever suits you. You will bet on your responsibility & In case you end losing this bet, I am still here to help you further. Meaning I will give one or may be couple more cool picks next month for you to recoup what you have lost but only in case you lose. So that's it.

Don't judge me from my tapology record because I don't predict full lineups & have just started doing that from last two weeks. Have a good game, Gentlemen.

How much one should bet on the picks you suggest every week ? For example, How much to bet on Dvorak vs Paiva for a prop finish ?

https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-fight-night-font-vs-garbrandt-predictions-and-bets