Nogueira vs. Schaub Predictions

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Nogueira vs. Schaub. Let's see what you've got.

probably the nelson knockout at tuf finale hurts him in some people's eye's. i sure he wants to fight nelson again. if they both win or both lose their next fights it should happen.

JDS would be too fast...Cain would out wrestle him yes in his prime...Unfortunately as sports progress the athletes that get involved get better and better 

@mino .. I would pick Mir Velasquez JDS Lesnar and Carwin to beat Fedor.. 

@Thiago oh yeah...Lesnar would be way to big and fast and out wrestle him

Is that sarcasm ?? Because I actually agree with what you just said? ha

@mino 3 fighters:

- Cain, who I think is just too well-rounded and too well-prepared
- Bones Jones, who is now so good I don't think it would even be close
And (you are going to kill me)...
- The Lesnar of 2009. Fedor wouldn't have had the wrestling to avoid at least 1 or 2 takedowns, and once on his back he would be trapped under a 50 pound weight disadvantage and TKO'd like Mir.

As for JDS it's hard to say. Both fighters are all about speed, power, and fast reflexes. I think the prime-Fedor was just a little faster and would beat JDS to the punch.

@thiagosilva Would Mir have beat him?

@thiago I don't think Mir or Carwin would have lasted 3 minutes with at-peak Fedor.

Oh I thought we were talking about the Fedor of now??... Id still pick Mir to win but not Carwin.

@Thiago no I absolutely think Lesnar's size speed and wrestling would have owned a prime Fedor

@soccer i agree 100%

@greg, I don't know about Lesnar man. I recently re watched the second Mir fight (everyone should check this out) and Mir rocked Lesnar hard against the fence. Not with the knee as he was getting taken down, but with punches. Lesnar almost turtled up like he did against Carwin and Cain. He recovered by taking Mir down because of his lack of footwork and TDD, but I think Prime Fedor's speed and power would be too much for Lesnar. I also think Fedor's chin is as good as it gets in MMA and he wouldn't have gotten tko'd and I doubt Lesnar would do too well in Pride after that first 10 minute round. 

Velasquez is still untested in my eyes. In 4 or 5 fights (or one really impressive win over JDS) before we see how good he really is. He got hurt bad against Kongo a few times, and out striking Zombie Nog doesn't really show us how good of a striker he is. Outside of the Nogueira and Lesnar fights he has shown a lack of power (whether he's improved that or just fought two guys who can't take punches remains to be seen), and although his wrestling is good Fedor's sprawl, footwork and range control would be tough for such a green fighter to deal with. Cain has the raw skills to be great but at this point we just don't know. 

Then Jones... I just don't buy the hype yet. I think most of his dominance comes from a size and strength advantage rather than a technique advantage, and he wouldn't have that against Fedor. Again, I could be wrong about that, we'll have to see both when he fights some guys he can't rag doll and when he makes the inevitable move to heavyweight. Also when I visualize that fight, I just see Fedor jumping in with those huge looping hooks he used to throw, and just putting Jones out. 

You might be right. We'll never know :(

Yeah, it's all speculation. I'm not a Fedor "nut hugger" by any means like the guys you see on some of these forums. In fact I almost always root against him. When I see someone who I think would beat him, I'll say it, I just think he was way too good. 

Of everyone listed I'd say Cain would stand the best chance, and if he runs through every contender he could change my mind.

When a Fedor fight starts my heart literally starts pounding out of nervousness. Same with Bones Jones.  Also happened in BJ vs GSP 1 when all of a sudden GSP's face was all ****** up.  It was so intense I thought I was going to have a heart attack.

on the subject of fedor in his prime, and fighters who COULD beat him...i go to 3 names...all for various reasons and all with potential to win or get crushed..this is for @minotauro to chime in on honestly..so for the sake of arguement, i'll pick three different fighters than above post.

1. shane carwin - while his 2 losses have put his stock in rollercoasters HUGE drop, he still has a power advantage over anyone...ANYONE...fedor was great at avoiding takedowns, and the ropes in pride wouldve hurt carwins chances for that...however, carwin is MASSIVE..and also would make fedor a little hesitant to get in wild exchanges...carwins chin is solid...he's never been ko'd, which may not always be a good thing (see cabbage vs tim sylvia), but it shows he too has a good chin...in the end, i believe it would be a matter of who gets there first..and most of the time i'd take fedor in that.

2. JDS - i love this guys boxing! he's ****n amazing with his punches! him and fedor would have some vicious back and forth exchanges, and the first one to crack lost...that would be almost 50/50.

3. randy couture - let the eye rolls commence! i honestly believe the couture that just beat sylvia would give fedor the best fight out of anyone...in a cage. coutures one of the best at using the cage to his advantage, but in the pride ring, his dirty boxing and leaning on his opponent would be nullified...couture always came prepared, and thats why i'd give him 60/40 over fedor

thoughts?

Wont get any argument out of me about Couture!!!

I just don't think Couture or Carwin would have been fast enough.  Fedor in his prime was SO damn fast, his timing was off the charts. 

@jersey, of those three, I think JDS would stand the biggest chance. Technique wise, JDS may have the edge, he has a great jab and is amazing at distances, but then I think about the Fedor vs. Cro Cop fight. Fedor out struck prime Cro Cop! It was unbelievable! Of course JDS and Cro Cop have different styles, but I just don't see any heavyweights out striking Fedor (in MMA, kickboxing is a different story). I'd love if JDS won this hypothetical fight, but I would give the edge to Fedor, and set the line at Fedor -200 and JDS +250 or +300.
I don't think Carwin could pull it off. I think Carwin is an awesome fighter and is getting a bad rap because of the JDS and Lesnar fights, but I just think Fedor would be too fast (as Gregory said). Plus Fedor has a chin of granite, and I don't think Carwin could knock him out unless he was able to hit him clean and hard 3 or 4 times. I'd put Fedor at like -500 if I were an oddsmaker.
Finally, Couture. I'm glad you mentioned him because that was the epic fight everyone wanted to see, and I hadn't even thought of it today. Again, I'd have to take Fedor in this fight though. Randy has so much heart and determination you could never count him out of a fight. He also provides a very interesting match up for Fedor because he hasn't faced many dirty boxers. In the Pride ring I'd give it to Fedor hands down. No cage to be bullied against and soccer kicks and knees off failed takedowns. In the UFC i'd give Couture a much bigger hope, but I still think Fedor's hands would be too much for him. I'd put Fedor at around -350 against a prime Couture. 

I added in the odds part because you guys probably know I'd pick Fedor over anyone at this point, so I wanted to make it more a bit more interesting. Should we start a new thread on hypothetical Fedor fights?

@nog appreciated man