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so you really think JDS will win

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skeet2b
skeet2b
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05.14.2011 | 12:33 AM ET

so everyone thinks that JDS will get the win.  did everyone notice carwin has only lost once and thats to Brock.  The reason  why i think carwin will win is that he is a beast, he will always win

"A true champion, face to face with his darkest hour, will do whatever it takes to rise above. A man fights, and fights, and then fights some more. Because surrender is death, and death is for *******"

Responses

wolfmanhowl
wolfmanhowl

05.14.2011 | 12:39 AM ET

it is funny that the wagering public is putting there money on carwin but the people on here are favoring jds 81% to 19%. i have carwin to win in second round b/c he hits harder than jds. so i got carwin with second round ko.
BodyModifier
BodyModifier
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05.14.2011 | 12:43 AM ET

I'm with Wolf. I think it'll be a stand up war for the first round and JDS will get stopped in the second. It's risky this prediction but I'm going with Carwin. 

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

Gregory
Gregory
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05.14.2011 | 12:43 AM ET

Well, I've made it no secret what I think about this fight.  For me it's all about speed and athleticism.  I see JDS getting his punches off first every time and being athletic and quick enough to keep the fight where he wants it.

"I live, I die, I live again."

BodyModifier
BodyModifier
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05.14.2011 | 12:46 AM ET

If Carwin didn't take this fight on short notice I'd definitely be confident in my pick, but it's a toss up to be honest. JDS will be quicker but Carwin if he lands it could hurt JDS. Also if he tried to take it down to the ground or anything after getting rocked Carwin will sprawl. Then keep punishing him....If Carwin comes in 100% or close to it. I'll be more confident in my pick.
If Carwin does in fact start losing the stand up battle which I don't see either of them dominating one or the other on their feet. He should take JDS down with his wrestling and control him and tire him out as much as possible.

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

skeet2b
skeet2b
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05.14.2011 | 12:47 AM ET

you really think it will  go to JDS?  remember JDS barely beat roy nelson, how bad do you think Mir would beat Nelson

"A true champion, face to face with his darkest hour, will do whatever it takes to rise above. A man fights, and fights, and then fights some more. Because surrender is death, and death is for *******"

bklettke
bklettke
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05.14.2011 | 12:53 AM ET

Barely beat Roy Nelson? What ******* fight were you watching? He dominated Roy Nelson. The only guy to stop Big Country was Arlovski and that was after an arsenal of punches, kicks, and knees. As Gregory stated, and i did earlier, JDS will win with superior technique and speed.
BodyModifier
BodyModifier
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05.14.2011 | 12:54 AM ET

JDS honestly didn't impress me in the Roy Nelson fight. He has just as touch of a challenge facing him as much as Carwin does, but Carwin has power....also a huge guy. With a solid wrestling back ground. If Carwin comes in with a gas tank. I'm confident Carwin will win.

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

BodyModifier
BodyModifier
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05.14.2011 | 12:55 AM ET

much* Damn tired.

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

Gregory
Gregory
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05.14.2011 | 12:55 AM ET

@skeet JDS is my prediction, yes.  JDS beat the snot out of Roy Nelson. The only negative is he got tired in that fight, otherwise there was nothing close about it.   And I don't think JDS has anything to worry about in the cardio department against Carwin.

"I live, I die, I live again."

bklettke
bklettke
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05.14.2011 | 12:57 AM ET

I know Carwin totally blew his wad against Lesnar in the first 3 minutes, but lets remember one thing. It's the only time he's been out of round 1 in his entire career. Lack of activity and speed will lead to Carwins first ever TKO loss.

BodyModifier
BodyModifier
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05.14.2011 | 12:59 AM ET

I don't even know who the heck to pick. Carwin doesn't have much time to train for this fight which is making me skeptical.

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

wolfmanhowl
wolfmanhowl

05.14.2011 | 1:02 AM ET

i think carwin learned a big lesson. he won't blow his wad in the first and i could see him push jds against the cage and pin him there and hit him with the big uppercut like he did to mir. jds hits the canvas and carwin pounces. 
wolfmanhowl
wolfmanhowl

05.14.2011 | 1:04 AM ET

@bodymod. remember jds was training for lesnar and carwin was training for another guy. always go with your first instinct. you will kick yourself if you change and lose.
Gregory
Gregory
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05.14.2011 | 1:04 AM ET

@bodymodified on the point about Carwin's cardio, I don't think you're going to see much difference no matter how hard he works to improve it. 

He's 36 and past his athletic prime, and simply too massive with too much muscle mass to feed in order to have good endurance.  He said he didn't know what happened with his cardio against Lesnar, but the fact is he had never even been to the 2nd round of a fight before.  The longest he had ever gone before that was 3:48 with Mir.  Most of his fights were 90 seconds long.

In Lesnar vs Carwin we didn't see a cardio aberration... we saw his cardio exposed.

In Gonzaga vs Carwin we saw his striking exposed as he was completely lit up and immobile to try and avoid the punches. Gonzaga blew that fight.

I come off like some kind of Carwin hater, which I'm really not.  I just don't like this matchup for him at all.  In fact, there's probably only 3 guys I'd pick to beat JDS...

Alistair Overeem
Cain Velasquez
Jon Jones

"I live, I die, I live again."

Gregory
Gregory
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05.14.2011 | 1:07 AM ET

@wolfman agreed on sticking with your first instinct when making picks.  good rule to work by. 

and... nothing hurts worse than changing your mind and then being wrong about it. 

"I live, I die, I live again."

bklettke
bklettke
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05.14.2011 | 1:18 AM ET

Well said about Carwins cardio - i also like that Frank Mir has realized that size does matter, but it doesn't mean you have to weight 280 to compete. If Carwin would lose enough mass to walk around at 250 i think it'd help him substantially. But as @gregory said, he's just too far along in his age, not his career, to make these types of changes to his body and improve his cardio.

If i had to predict JDSs strategy to success, its going to be his usual complete standup game with a few more body shots thrown to wear Carwin down that much faster. The more i think about it, the more i convince myself Carwin will be TKO'd. He'll be a top 5 HW for as long as he competes, but he'll never be the UFC champion.

BodyModifier
BodyModifier
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05.14.2011 | 1:21 AM ET

I hate the points you guys are making and as reasonable as it sounds. As logical as JDS is the right pick. I'm going with Carwin. Just going to roll the dice and hope I'm lucky. If not I can understand your views and I can see why JDS can win. Very reasonable posts but I'm siding with Carwin.
I like JDS and if he wins I'll be just as happy. It'll be hard to see Carwin lose but these two deserve whatever the outcome is, and it'll be a great fight.

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

BodyModifier
BodyModifier
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05.14.2011 | 1:23 AM ET

I meant I hate your reasonable points in your posts because it was making my decision harder lol.

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

skeet2b
skeet2b
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05.14.2011 | 1:23 AM ET

yea i thought nelson was the man, i thought the szme thing until the JDS fight, when nelson almost won

"A true champion, face to face with his darkest hour, will do whatever it takes to rise above. A man fights, and fights, and then fights some more. Because surrender is death, and death is for *******"

BodyModifier
BodyModifier
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05.14.2011 | 1:24 AM ET

so Gregory if we win the Carwin prediction do we get a pizza party. lol jk.

"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."


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