Alvarez vs. Aoki

Forum for Bellator 66 main card fight Alvarez vs. Aoki..

Thoughts?

Matter of time on that sub. Statistically Alvarez should win, but he won't because he doesn't train with anyone that can mimic Aoki's craftiness.

Agreed. What do think the actual outcome of the fight will be?

I think Alvarez won't throw a kick without setting it up, I can tell you that much, haha. Neither of these guys loses a lot though so its hard to tell. My thoughts are these: Aoki has only lost 5 times out of 35, 3 of which were all 1st RD T/KOs. However out of his 35 fights he's won 19 by submission, (over 50%). Alvarez has 12 T/KOs in 25 fights (about half of his fights he KOs his opponent). But of his 3 losses he was subbed twice (66%) including his last fight against a guy that really had no signature wins prior to the bout. Aoki hasn't been KOd since 2009, just over 3 years, despite 11 fights with the likes of Hansen, McCullough, and Kawajiri, while Alvarez was subbed in his last outting.

If Michael (only has 4 sub wins) Chandler can sub Alvarez I don't see what he is going to be able to to stop a much more sub savvy Aoki. Matter of time. Since most of Aoki's subs take place in the 1st round that is what I would wager on. Aoki is 8-2 in decisions and Alvarez is 3-0. I think if it went the distance that would be a greater indicator that Aoki failed to impose his will so Alvarez would get the nod.

So three most likely outcomes  by my estimation:

1. Aoki sub RD 1

2. Alvarez T/KO RD 1

3. Alvarez Dec

Out of a combined 60 fights these guys have seen the judges 11 times, roughly I in 6. Aoki's last fight went to decision but he had four subs prior to that. Since 2008 Alvarez has only had one decision, that's in his last nine fights, but the decision was two fights ago. That would indicate to me that statistically neither fighter is due for a decision. Since Aoki finishes MORE of his opponents (including Alvarez) via sub than Eddie does via TKO I have that as the most likely outcome.

Why is alvarez the favorite?!?

Seems crazy doesn't it?

@The_Tester i would love Aoki to win, but i could see how a guy like Alvarez could fight like melendez and pull a decision. I hope he doesnt.

alvarez is a good fighter that's why. Aoki is good too but dont seem him pulling it off.

I see Alvarez using a very safe boxing style to get the decision.

Won't be shocked at all though if Aoki gets a sub.

Ill pick alverez because i dont much like aoki but this fight could easily go either way.

I like @dannotheman's prediction, safe boxing en route to a decision.

Aoki needs to stay in Japan where he can crush cans.

Alveraz should be able to dominate this fight pretty hadily

Neither of these guys really go the distance often, I wouldn't bet on it in this fight.

They don't usually go to decision but Eddie will be too fearful of the groundgame to open up. I don't see him getting a T/KO in this fight. Only finish I foresee would be Aoki by sub, or my pick which is Alvarez by decision.

I was just over at MMA Junkie and saw a comment here as well about Aoki being a can crusher. Really tired of these ignorant statements being thrown around because Aoki is from Japan, like no one can fight there. List of guys that Aoki has defeated since losing a decision to the SF champ: Rich Clementi, Rob McCullough, Lyle Beerbohm, Marcus Aurelio, and Kawajiri, most of whom are UFC vets.

List of guys he defeated before that loss: Joachim Hansen (X2), Vitor Ribeirto, Caol Uno, Jason Black, and Eddie Alvarez.

Usually Alvarez takes two gimme fights against no names after a loss but I guess he is motivated this time. Could he suffer back to back losses for the first time in his career?

@Danno: Eddie shouldn't fear opening up as long as he is smart about his set ups.

* Edited at 04.19.2012, 6:35 PM ET *

This is going to come down to whoever happens to make a mistake first, just like the first fight.  Either guy could quickly finish the other.

* Edited at 04.19.2012, 6:57 PM ET *

Aoki could definitely take a decision over Alvarez.  Eddie will have to close the distance because of Aoki's reach advantage (And yes Aoki's striking has improved and he's learned to use his reach), and Eddie may be too hesitant to close the distance often enough because of the danger of a clinch or takedown and get outpointed at the end of Aoki's jab and kicks.

The last person to knock out Aoki was


I think Eddie's got this Melendez style if he doesn't ko him by the 2nd

If this fight ends in a decision I will dress like that idiot above and post the pics. Sub Aoki KO Alvarez, no other viable ending.

* Edited at 04.19.2012, 7:07 PM ET *

That is K1's only crossdresser Nagashima and he ko'd Aoki early in the first round at Dynamite 2010 why it doesn't show on his record is crazy because it was 1 of those weird rules matches k1 and mma

* Edited at 04.19.2012, 7:19 PM ET *

Nagashima KO'd him early in the 2nd round.  The first round was K1 rules and Aoki ran like Forrest Gump the entire round, often diving halfway out of the ropes and intentionally falling to his back on almost every kick attempt and stalling getting back up.  The second round was MMA rules and Nagashima KO'd him within 10 seconds with a knee on a shot.  Irony.

Ya lol watching it again now it's been awhile missed seeing the dropkick flops 

Alvarez vs. Aoki (first match for those who haven't seen it)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ3jz_z8YJ8