Contender Series 2022: Week 8

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Lewis vs. Marcos
Daniel Marcos, TKO, R2
Pretty sure Daniel has the speed advantage. Brandon throws great combos and has great IQ, but doesn't execute. Very difficult to predict since

Begosso vs. Basharat
Farid Basharat, DEC
Fairly convinced basharat is legit but he is getting a way tougher opponent here. Begosso is very explosive and Farid has shown to not have a fantastic chin. I think his diverse skillset should be enough to avoid the kill shot. Upset wouldn’t surprise me

Aliskerov vs. Sousa
Ikram Aliskerov, SUB, R1
Poor sousa. I think he’s a good fighter but the ufc is giving him that Aaron Jeffery treatment

Lewis vs. Peek
Malik Lewis, SUB, R2
People are overrating peek like crazy. A ko over Khama is nothing special considering his chin is glass. Malik has much more ways to win this fight

Brasil vs. Mann
Bruna Brasil, DEC
Mann is no good

Lewis vs. Marcos
Brandon Lewis, DEC
Marcos really isn’t that great tbh. Lewis isn’t fantastic but he’s much more proven. Unless marcos has somehow magically improved after the three year layoff

A bunch of shade on Mann and her Lfa match. She beat a tough** opponent whose only other loss is a decision to Tabatha Ricci (7-1). Several** videos of Brasil on her back for long period of with opponents not nearly*** as strong as Mann. Watch the fight of Brasíl and Thainara. Taking down several times until her opponent gassed. Another fight she was being completely controlled with a very similar build to Mann until Brasil was injured. I could be wrong. But live dog for sure. 

That is true, but you have to look at the improvements she’s made. Her tdd is bad but that thainara fight was when she was 2-2 

Begosso vs. Basharat
Allan Begosso, TKO, R1
This will be a very dangerous fight for Farid. He'll need to stay sharp at all times. I'm pulling for Farid, but he has a tough matchup here. Allan covers distance well and is very strong. they are pretty even on the feet skill wise, but the movement/different styles of entries seem to play to Allan's favor. I would say Farid has the edge on the ground, but you cant be sure due to the strength advantage for Allan. Another great matchup. Love this card on paper.

Aliskerov vs. Sousa
Ikram Aliskerov, DEC
Ikram should make quick work of Mario. Not a very good matchup for Mario. Hope he pulls it out somehow.

Lewis vs. Peek
Malik Lewis, TKO, R1
Trevor is overhyped IMO. Lewis has way better footwork, hands, kicks, wrestling, cardio. From film, this seems like a complete mismatch. Dont know why so many have Trevor...Please let me know thoughts, got to be missing something.

Brasil vs. Mann
Marnic Mann, TKO, R2
for WMMA this is a great matchup. A technical striker vs a pure brawler and powerhouse. Gonna go with the brawler and powerhouse. Bruna wont be able to control the distance and Marnic will be too strong in the clinch and inside IMO. Bruna does set up the high kicks well and Marnic is short.

Why do you think Mann is no good? She's showed a ton of potential and is fairly young. Brasil does not have the best defense for the hands/forward pressure either.  She appears to be a very live dawg. 

Brasil doesn't seem to have really any grappling, think Mann absolutely devours her.

Arnesen has decent scrambles and grappling IQ, neither which I think Brasil has. 

Solid underdog here in Mann but you can say that for almost every WMMA underdog now adays.

* Edited at 09.13.2022, 12:17 AM ET *

Just my twocents on this fight. I have absolutely no idea why Peek is such a big underdog. I have laid a big bet on him and I like my chances of cashing. It's a pretty even fight and I give the edge to Peek. Those odds make zero sense to me.

The biggest knock against Peek that everyone is mentioning is that he is a round 1 KO or bust fighter. How have people come to this conclusion? Have they actually watched the fights?

Peek is literally a wild man. Very fast. Comes out swining huge overhands and hooks, kicks and just blitzes combinations. He can get taken down but seems to have good reversals and his takedown defence is actually not too bad. He sometimes lands his own takedowns and then lays out devastating ground and pound. 

As for his cardio? It really does not seem so bad. Sure he is explosive and slows down a little, but I have seen him go 3 x 3 minute rounds and at 2 rounds etc and does not look very tired at all despite lots of counter wrestling and grappling. And he just continues to swing, to scramble and to overwhelm his opponents. In fact by the end of two rounds its often his opponent who looks dazed and tired. He seems to have a decent chin too though he can get hit.

As for Lewis, I like him too. rangy, good combination blitzing striking too and has good chain wrestling, though mainly bodylocks against the cage or grinding cage fighting. His ground control is not fantastic. Cardio is on point. Nice knees and body shots. I like his striking but I can easily see him getting clipped by Peek. Also I feel he is open to getting caught in a submission when attempting takedowns, he almost got caught against Vinicius who got his arm, but being against the cage helped him. And I think Vinicius may even have been winning the fight until he pulled a rookie stunt and got caught in a triangle from the bottom. Should never have happened.

Close fight, maybe even a relatively even fight. Lewis is the bigger man. But I can see Peek being faster, landing the leg kicks and blitzing and completely overwhelming Lewis. I will take a shot on the dog money here,

They both could get a contract. Both seem great.

Also interesting thing I noticed, see if you agree. Lewis feints a lot. And he shakes his head as a feint when he is not about to throw, and keeps his head still when he actually throws. Lol, its pretty obvious on tape though probably not in the heat of the moment.

From all the comments being posted here it looks like the next fight to look into is the Mann/Brasil fight.

I got burned last time by betting on that horrible WMMA fighter Silva by just listening to what everyone was saying and not actually watching enough tape myself. Everyone I heard was saying what a brilliant prospect she was and she was about as god awful as I have ever seen. 

Not making that mistake again, won some money last week with a nice parlay with Walker, Khamzat submission, Almeida ITD, Alatang and Tuiliulin where I cashed a decent amount. I don't want to lose that,

Will post a breakdown when I am done. Thinking of a parlay of Peek ITD, Aliskerov ITD and whichever of the WMMA fighters I like. Probably not going to touch the Basharat fight because the odds are ridiculous.

* Edited at 09.13.2022, 12:35 AM ET *

Trevor loads up a bunch on a lot of his strikes, Lewis is so smooth.

Wouldn't be surprised if Peek KO's him early, but I think Lewis has a WAYY better game and showed a lot more so far of an all around MMA game.

* Edited at 09.13.2022, 1:14 AM ET *

I actually do not see Peek KOing him early. I see him putting the pace on him, wearing him out and then getting a late R2/3 KO or even a decision, I think this whole thing about Peek being a R1 or bust fighter is nonsense. Peope just haven't watched tape. Either could win it, but I think it will be at least over 1.5 rounds unless Peek catches him with something crazy.

* Edited at 09.13.2022, 1:18 AM ET *

Peek didn't seem to slow down too much from what I've seen so I can't say he's a 1 round fighter.

But I do like Lewis's distance management and clinch game early to tire Peek out, also Lewis just didn't get touched much from what I saw; am a lil worried about his chin

* Edited at 09.13.2022, 1:20 AM ET *

The Ben Brewer vs Peek fight is very worrying, Brewer had 0 grappling and 1 double leg in the tank; was able to get Peek down with ease.

It's a close fight bto. Going to be a banger

@Rusty

Hell ya! All these fights are close this week after watching film, gonna be a good one tmr night!

* Edited at 09.13.2022, 1:43 AM ET *

** Brandon Lewis 2nd Round Sub

* Edited at 09.13.2022, 2:29 AM ET *

Lewis vs. Marcos
Brandon Lewis, DEC
Marcos has been pretty inactive, hasn't fought in nearly three years.

Begosso vs. Basharat
Allan Begosso, DEC
Both fighters have an akward unorthodox fighting style. I feel like Begosso had better competition. If I had to pick, I pick Begosso because he keeps his hands high and actually has a gaurd contrary to Farid, he definitly can be wild too however he has better composure and fight IQ + decnt BJJ, I believe, not a confident pick though.

Aliskerov vs. Sousa
Ikram Aliskerov, SUB, R2
Ikram's sole loss is to Khamzat and you see how that ages...

Lewis vs. Peek
Trevor Peek, TKO, R1
Peek has the power, granted the 2 fights before Khama he didn't look very good nor solid, but apparently he was recovering from covid and a lung infection apparently so + Malik really didn't impress me at all in his pro fights, it should be near even for both honestly, but i'm taking Peek as a underdog here.

Brasil vs. Mann
Bruna Brasil, DEC
Brasil takes it and if not, she should retire haha, crazy height advantage.

Lewis vs. Marcos
Brandon Lewis, TKO, R2
Picking the guy who is actually very decnt, very hardworking and durable aggainst somoene who's okay 12-0, but the dude was inactive for over 2 years...come on..

Typed a massive breakdown for this and of course my computer shuts down and I lose it all. Cannot be fussed typing it all again.

Basically this is again a very close fight. Brasil has excellent striking especially her kicks and knows how to use her length. Really impressed with her striking and distance/range management. She almost reminds me of a female version of Bahamondes from memory. However she tends to be arrogant and from what I have heard from interviews she is not afraid to take it down to the ground with much better BJJ artists. Not a smart move. Especially against a wrestler/grappler like Mann. However closing distance on Brasil will be very difficult with her array of kicks, tepes and straight strikes. Not sure how she is when moving backwards when pressured and fighting off the back foot but her in - out style makes this less likely to happen and she is very mobile which also helps to avoid take downs. However her takedown defence is not good and I can see her getting stuck on her back playing BJJ. Main worry is if she goes forward, clinches and gets taken down. 

Mann is short, powerful and has good takedowns, judo and trips. Could get out muscled by a larger stronger girl but she does manage to control things well on top and has good ground and pound. Does get pushed backwards on the feet but if she clinches, especially against the cage she is very dangerous. Could also see her catching kicks even though Brasil is fast. Striking is nothing much to write home about. Brasil is the much taller, lengthier girl but Mann has fought similar sized opponents before, albiet without the same amount of footwork and mobility. Cardio seems on point for both girls. And both seem to have good chins.

Basically a very close fight and I would advise not to put too much money on it. Could either be a striking clinic and potentially a KO by Brasil or a clinch/takedown and control the round on top kind of win from Mann. Likely to go to the scorecards though and who knows how the idiot judges will score it.

Usually take the wrestler in these kind of match ups but I really do like the smooth striking and range control of Brasil. As long as she keeps it there and does not rush forward and clinch and get taken down and then stay on her back I think she wins this. But especially being WMMA and seeing Brasil's arrogant approach to some dangerous opponents (it's not a fight IQ issue, its over confidence) I could see this ending badly for her. Pick is Brasil but this is a very dangerous fight for her.

* Edited at 09.13.2022, 6:24 AM ET *