PFL 2021 #4: Regular Season

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Pettis vs. Martinez
Anthony Pettis, TKO, R1
If my boi showtime dont win this, he should retire

Khaybulaev vs. Moraes
Movlid Khaybulaev, TKO, R1
this will be a massacre, pfl match making is weird sometimes

Jenkins vs. Moffett
Bubba Jenkins, DEC
it wasnt a good fight at all but bubba jenkins still turned me into a fan by beating lance palmer 30-27. **** lance palmer

* Edited at 06.07.2021, 7:32 PM ET *

Shields vs. Elkin
Claressa Shields, DEC
Shields wins easily but Elkin is Wyoming tough. So, no KO.

Pettis vs. Martinez
Anthony Pettis, DEC
Might have to cancel "Showtime" if he can't get it done here. I'd cancel Showtime if it weren't for Desus & Mero. Okay, Black Friday is pretty dope, too.

Jenkins vs. Moffett
Bubba Jenkins, DEC
Bubba Jenkins/Bobby Moffett sounds NASCAR af. "Hey, y'all, watch this!"

Loughnane vs. Diamond
Brendan Loughnane, TKO, R1
When in doubt, bet against Team Alpha Male, right? (unless the fighter is female) or, This rough Diamond needs a little more polishing...

Collard vs. Lutterbach
Clay Collard, TKO, R3
"open up ya pores like a plate fulla COLLARDs"..... Please stop calling yourself "Cassius" tho. Maybe "crazy Cracka".

Held vs. Aubin-Mercier
Marcin Held, SUB, R2
I like "Hand" Held here. Also have a rule against picking dudes* with hyphenated last names. *=combatants that don't identify as broads

Aliev vs. Radzhabov
Akhmed Aliev, DEC
Both last names end in "v". Shee-yat! Jaguar Paw wrapped up in Butcher's paper.

Khaybulaev vs. Moraes
Movlid Khaybulaev, TKO, R1
Neckbeard>Mugshot Model

Wade vs. Ospanov
Arman Ospanov, DEC
"countries ending in -stan, fighters w/ last name ending in 'v' "- rules in effect for this pick. *based on ZERO research

Shields vs. Elkin
Claressa Shields, TKO, R1
Here's a question for ya... Lol. KO by way of the hands or head kick?

Pettis vs. Martinez
Anthony Pettis, DEC
Man. Pettis having some real bad times lately. Now 24-11. Idk. This kid will give Pettis issues if the same Showtime shows up. Idk what it is. It's like he doesn't believe in himself fully that he can still go out there and win fights. But, Idk man. This kid very well might surprise alotta ppl

Loughnane vs. Diamond
Brendan Loughnane, TKO, R2
Fight of the Night almost a lock. Loughnane is ******* legit tho. UFC was ******* stupid not picking this guy up.

Held vs. Aubin-Mercier
Olivier Aubin-Mercier, DEC
Interesting....

Khaybulaev🔒
Loughnane🔒

Shields vs. Elkin
Claressa Shields, DEC
Easy first fight for Claressa Shields in her MMA debut. I don't think she'll find a KO though as she mostly out-boxes people in the ring so I'd assume that she'd adopt the same style in the cage. I hope that this fight goes to the ground at some point though as I'm curious to see how well her ground game is coming along. I've seen a few of her training videos but what you do in training doesn't necessarily translate to an actual fight so it will be interesting to see what level she's at in that field.

* Edited at 06.08.2021, 10:06 AM ET *

BetsbyJ, the definition of a "lock" is Lance Palmer. He is currently anywhere from -800 to -1000, and rightfully so.


It's interesting to see how the odds for Shields have changed dramatically over the past few days. When the odds first came out, she was anywhere from -550 to -670. Now she is -246 to -350. All of you guys who think she is a lock to win might want to take advantage of that.

Personally, I'm going to stay far away from Shields. It's almost like people are forgetting this is MMA and not boxing. I don't think it would be crazy to assume that Shields' takedown defense is probably awful, considering she has never had to worry about defending a takedown until now. I'm sure even a ****** grappler can take her down easily. Furthermore, if Shields does get taken down, I picture her looking as confused as Ngannou when Stipe took him down in their first fight. She will have no idea what to do. If the fight stays on the feet, Shields will win. But that is a BIG IF. I think Elkin just needs to get one takedown and the fight could be over very quick. Submitting Shields won't be difficult if she is taken down. She's probably not even familiar with all the ways she can be submitted.


I also think Elkin will have more time to work than people believe. Shields is not a KO artist. 2 KOs in her 11 wins. People are acting like she is as fearsome as a young Mike Tyson.

+250 odds for Goes the Distance for Shields vs Elkin, Not bad really, I kinda have a feeling it will so might put a bit of money there

Shields vs. Elkin
Brittney Elkin, SUB, R2
Striker vs. Grappler obviously, there's just so many unknowns with Claressa. How good did that takedown defense get training at Jackson Wink? And what happens if she happens to get taken down? Has she trained enough jiu jitsu? Does she even have get ups? ... Shield's wasn't much of a KO artist in boxing either, but maybe the 4oz gloves might make a difference. But, if not, can she survive 3 rounds in there with an experienced grappler? I don't know, so I'm thinking Elkin finds the sub eventually after pressuring Shields enough. This will probably be one of those fights where Shields loses her debut, but then comes back way stronger and goes on a tear.

Pettis vs. Martinez
Alex Martinez, DEC
Call me crazy, but I think Martinez lays on Pettis for 3 rounds. Pettis hasn't looked like his championship self in a while, and he just took a lot of damage a month ago against Clay Collard, and almost got knocked out. Pretty quick turnaround after the beating he took.

Jenkins vs. Moffett
Bubba Jenkins, DEC
Wouldn't be surprised at all if Moffett locks up a D'arce though

Collard vs. Lutterbach
Clay Collard, DEC
Clay's striking and pressure was definitely impressive against Pettis. I think the ground game might be a bit of an equalizer for Lutterbach, but I still think Clay should be able to hold up and get a decision win.

Schulte vs. Manfio
Natan Schulte, DEC
Former teammates and they're friends, so probably a lot of familiarity with each others' games. Schulte might be able to lock up a sub, but I'm guessing Manfio will be wise to his setups. But, I definitely think this is a dominant unanimous decision in the making. Manfio's level of competition prior to his last fight pales in comparison to Schulte, a PFL former champ.

Palmer vs. Stirn
Lance Palmer, SUB, R1
-1000 favorite, sheesh!

Held vs. Aubin-Mercier
Marcin Held, DEC
Aubin-Mercier fought Gilbert Burns and didn't get subbed, so pretty sure he can avoid getting subbed by Held. Still think Held manages to take a decision though. Olivier's been out almost 2 years, while Held just beat a former champ, his confidence is gonna be sky high.

Aliev vs. Radzhabov
Loik Radzhabov, DEC
OK I know MMA math doesn't always work out, but hear me out... PFL 2019 season, Radzhabov beat Chris Wade by unanimous decision, while Aliev lost to Wade by unanimous decision. Then, Radzhabov loses to that season's champion Natan Schulte, while Aliev got subbed by Schulte. All that adds up to me thinking Radzhabov will sc**** up a decision, might even be a split.

Loughnane vs. Diamond
Brendan Loughnane, TKO, R2
Leg #1

Collard vs. Lutterbach
Clay Collard, DEC
Leg #2 for -105 odds

Schulte vs. Manfio
Natan Schulte, DEC
It's a safe bet to add in Schulte as well.

Wade vs. Ospanov
Chris Wade, DEC
Wade is worth the juice as a straight bet imo.

Shields vs. Elkin
Claressa Shields, SUB, R1
Armbar, just to make a point

Schulte vs. Martinez
Natan Schulte, SUB, R2
Schulte is a ******* bulldozer, short notice doesn't mean anything

Collard vs. Lutterbach
Clay Collard, TKO, R1
I'm really enjoying Collard's career resurgence

Palmer vs. Stirn
Lance Palmer, SUB, R2
At least he isn't beating up poor Alex Gilpin again

Held vs. Aubin-Mercier
Marcin Held, DEC
This is a rough comeback fight for the Canadian, but huge if he can pull off a win

Aliev vs. Radzhabov
Akhmed Aliev, DEC
It's so hard to pick against Radzhabov, I thought he won that last fight. But Aliev has fought absolute monsters for a long time and I think he'll be more than ready

Khaybulaev vs. Moraes
Movlid Khaybulaev, TKO, R1
Honestly wouldn't be shocked if Moraes either retires after this fight or doesn't step in a cage for 2+ years after. This is going to really hurt

Shield's opponent is the definition of hand picked to win, her opponent is less than stellar. This is a fight they basically picked for her to win with the least risk of losing. I do not expect her opponent to be athletic, something Shields is.

I have no background info on where Shield's has been training, but I seriously doubt her opponent submits her or even makes a fight out of it. Hannah Guy recently upset Valerie Loureda, but she was much more experienced. I don't think this turns out like that for Elkin.

Schulte vs. Martinez
Natan Schulte, DEC
Interesting rebook here, Schulte is gonna be a much tougher out for Martinez. Martinez might find some success considering Schulte did just lose to Marcin Held, a primary grappler, but I think Schulte's championship experience gets him the later rounds. I'm thinking 29-28

Shields has been training at Jackson Wink.

Ah, thank you @Blackbet25

She's in good hands

Shields as probably become the master of jab-jab-run now.
Maybe Jones teached her some trick about throwing with open finger.

* Edited at 06.09.2021, 3:58 PM ET *

Moraes vs. Stirn
Jesse Stirn, DEC
Thank god, at least Moraes probably won't get knocked out again.

I'm so pissed right now. I live in Ohio where there is no sports betting. So this morning I made a 90 minute round trip to a sportsbook in Erie, PA. I bet $2k on a parlay with Lance Palmer and Movlid. It would've been the easiest $700 I ever made. Now I find out that BOTH of the fights I bet on are cancelled.

* Edited at 06.09.2021, 8:25 PM ET *