Prediction:
correct
Emeev
correct
Decision
Ramazan Emeev win via decision or submission over 2.5 rounds OR Alberto Mina win by KO in rd 1. Tale of the tape: Alberto is 35, 6 ft, with a 77.5 inch reach. Ramazan is 30, 5’10 or 5’11, with a 76 inch reach. Alberto is 13-0 & is 3-0 in the ufc. His record is padded. It is notable that ⅔ of his ufc opponents were 40 years of age… basically, he’s had easy opponents in the ufc that aren’t competitive anymore. Alberto made his mma debut in 2005 but does not fight frequently. Alberto hasn’t fought since July 2016. From 2008-2016 he fights only once per year. Ramazan comes from a sambo background & started training in freestyle wrestling at age 6. Alberto comes from a jiu-jitsu background. Ramazan made his ufc debut in the middleweight division where he beat Sam Alvey by decision. This fight will be at welterweight. Alberto is probably going to have ring rust since in all 3 of his ufc fights he has ring rust, endurance suck, & was very sloppy in his striking (or is his striking generally sloppy to begin with?) Who’s the superior striker? Answer: Neither, hard to tell… since Alberto rarely fights. Defense - slight edge for Ramazan … mainly because he has better endurance, head movement, & judgement in distance to evade punches. Offense - slight edge for Alberto due to higher volume, more variety, carries more power in his punches/kicks, & aggression. Ramazan is an aggressive grappler but not an aggressive striker. Between the two, Alberto is more comfortable in striking with his opponents as he likes to engage in brawls while Ramazan is hesitant & throws more feints than actual punches. Would not be surprised if rd 1 Alberto gets the better of the exchanges in the stand-up with his brawl but then gas out and rd 3 Ramazan takes over with his grappling & get the stoppage victory. Summary of Ramazan’s striking: His striking is very one-dimensional & can be a bit boring to watch mainly because of his low volume, too much feints, & either throws jabs or hooks… he has little variety in his strikes. Ramazan fights at an orthodox stance, chin tucked sometimes, a lot of hand gestures (feints), very flat-footed as he walks forward usually pressuring his opponents with his takedown attempts, low volume in strikes thrown, uses more feints than actual attacks thrown (this is a huge problem), almost no combinations, all his shots are usually jabs or step-in hooks, over head hunts… does not mix punches to the body, rarely throws any kicks, does not check leg kicks, likes to use his jab or step-in hooks to immediately close the distance & clinch with his opponents & then transition to takedowns. His striking is awful but his feints are good. He’ll rush in for step-in hooks leaving his chin exposed & he doesn’t time his punches. In an ideal fight, Ramazan would like to use his jabs to close the distance into the clinch position & then secure a takedown against an opponent with no takedown defense or has bad endurance. Ramazan’s striking isn’t much of a threat if he can’t go for takedowns. The only two area of his stand-up that I’m impress with are: 1.) his feints 2.) defense / judgement in distance. He has good judgement in distance which allows him to move slightly just out of harm’s way & head movement. Summary of Alberto’s striking: can’t say much since he hasn’t fought since mid-2016 & fights on average only 1x per year. Alberto fights at an orthodox stance, explosive in rd 1, & has terrible defense with little head movement. He likes to lunge in with his torso overextended & chin high up throwing punches repeatedly from the same arm which can catch opponents off guard but it leaves him vulnerable to takedowns & counter-punched. He has a lot of variety in his attacks from step-in elbows, uppercuts, body kicks, leg kicks, flying knees, fake a takedown & follow up with an overhand right, does not know how to pace himself… by rd 2 he’s completely exhausted. Who’s the superior grappler? Answer: Ramazan Emeev… mainly because he has the wrestling advantage, endurance, & is the more frequent fighter. Alberto Mina might be the superior jiu-jitsu fighter, but in mma jiu-jitsu once you add in strikes, wrestling, & endurance I would say Ramazan has better mma jiu-jitsu. Ramazan actually does a good job fighting off his back when taken down… from videos I’ve seen back when he was in M-1 Challenge. I don’t think Alberto has the endurance to outgrapple Ramazan. The longer the fight goes + more grappling = better for Ramazan. Although Ramazan likes to take the fight to the ground, he’s not a dangerous submission threat or known for heavy ground & pound. He prefers to maintain top control. Who has better endurance? Answer: Ramazan… by a lot. Again, from 2008-2016, Alberto only fights once per year. He hasn’t fought in nearly 2 years & when he does fight it’s only once per year. In all 3 of Alberto’s ufc wins he was gassed out by round 2. 2014 he makes his ufc debut…. he gassed out in rd 1 beating Shinsho Anzai by KO… both were tired, on wobbly legs, & wasn’t technical at all. A year later, 2015, he fights 40 year old Yoshihiro Akiyama and beats him by split decision. In that fight in rd 3 he was completely gassed out & was in survival mode as Yoshiro was on top of him landing punches. He got saved by the bell. A year later, 2016, he fights 40 year old Mike Pyle & KO’s him in rd 2 with a flying knee. I believe endurance & grappling will be the deciding factor of this fight. Who has a better chin? Answer: Ramazan… even though Ramazan has 1 loss by tko it was in the 4rth round after he took a heavy beating on the feet… to his credit he was still on his feet standing as the ref stopped the fight… he was never knocked down or unconscious. Alberto’s questionable gas tank, wobbly legs when he fought Shinsho, barely survived rd 3 against Yoshihiro, & 35 years of age makes me believe he won’t recover if he’s rocked. However, Ramazan isn’t a dangerous striker so I don’t think Ramazan can KO him on the feet… Ramazan is more likely to wrestle him down to the ground & land ground£ on him causing the ref to stop the fight by tko. Who’s more likely to get a stoppage victory? Answer: Alberto Mina. Why? He’s explosive. Out of his 13 wins, 12 have come by stoppage… 6 tko/ko, 6 submission, & 1 by decision. Whereas Ramazan fights pretty safe… out of his 16 wins he has 10 stoppage victories… 3 by tko/ko, 7 by submission, 6 by decision. How I see the fight going down: 2 possibilities: I’m going with b.) Ramazan wins & Alberto’s 0 will go. a.) Alberto KO’s Ramazan in rd 1 with his explosiveness. Doubtful… Ramazan has a good chin & good judgement in distance. b.) Ramazan scores takedowns in every round & lands a few ground & pound. Alberto won’t be able to stand-back up if taken down in rd 2 or 3 because of his cardio. Maybe in rd 1 when he’s still explosive. Ramazan will make Alberto carry his weight, drain his cardio by constantly grappling with him, Alberto has ring rust, & from rd 2-3 it’s a one-sided domination on the ground as Alberto is too tired to mount any offense. Ramazan will either get a stoppage victory in rd 3 or win by dominant decision because of his top control … not even bias judges can steal a win for Alberto if it goes the distance. If this fight goes the distance, I can’t imagine Alberto winning because of his terrible cardio.