GSP vs. Johny Hendricks

I searched but couldn't find a thread devoted to this upcoming title match.

I know it has not been set yet, so no official thread can be started.  But that never stopped me before, so let's get on with the business of handicapping and discussing this interesting fight.

Thoughts?  Discuss.

* Edited at 03.28.2013, 8:51 PM ET *

I'd like to start off by going against the conventional wisdom that GSP can't afford to stand with a dangerous striker.  I certainly hoped that GSP dispelled that illusion in his last fight with Nick Diaz.

In his battle with Nick, they stood for 13 of the 25 minutes.  That's over half.  GSP showed absolutely no fear of standing and exchanging.  And he didn't get rocked.  Nick didn't get the best of him.  Nick did hold his own nicely, and I was really wrong on that part of my analysis.

Johny has really short, stubby arms and suffers a reach disadvantage to GSP.  I realize that Johny has a good ability to close distance extremely quickly.  He almost jumps into his punches, like a superman punch.  

Johny will suffer a reach / range disadvantage.  He will need to find a way to get inside of GSP's jab.  If he doesn't, he will get picked apart at the end of a snapping jab.  

So far, both Koscheck and Condit found ways to avoid Johny's big over-hand left. And Johny vaunted wrestling was nowhere in evidence against Kos.  And the ground game with Condit was about even.  Hendricks was not able to dominate Carlos on the ground.

And if he couldn't dominate Condit with his wrestling, there will be no way he could possibly do that with GSP.  GSP dominated Condit on the ground.  

So, the most likely outcome is that Hendricks will be tentative in his striking, for fear of being taken down, just as Condit was more tentative in his striking against GSP.

Johny's most pressing problem is his short, stubby arms.  He will need to move constantly, practice due diligence in guarding against the take-down.  

I forsee this being another routine, orthodox GSP win, and Johny taking a place of honor in the GSP-defeated club.  

I hope GSP is full strength and healthy.  I hope Johny gives him a wonderful, entertaining evening of battle.  I thoroughly enjoy 5-rounds of competitive, back and forth, see-saw, cut, thrust and parry combat.

GSP vs. Johnny Hendricks is a very interesting match-up. GSP currently has the most title defenses of any UFC WW Champion, tied with Matt Hughes for the most wins inside the UFC Octagon, and in many MMA fans eyes, the p4p greatest fighter of all time. GSP is one of the best at preparing for fights, exposing his opponent's weaknesses, extremely well-rounded, athletic, strong, and is currently riding an 11-fight winning streak. Highly criticised for having 8 of those 11 fights go the distance, GSP has dominated everyone that he has faced since his loss to Matt Serra back in April 7, 2007 dominating 43 of 46 rounds fought. With all that, GSP has also defeated just about everyone that there is to beat at 170. Except one..................................

Johnny Hendricks has one of the most devastating left hands at 170. Finishing 9 of 15 wins (8 by brutal KO)inside the distance, with only 1 loss, Hendricks has proven to be a serious handful for whoever he faces. Carlos Condit, Martin Kampmann, Jon Fitch, and Josh Koscheck are just a few of the names of top WWs that Hendricks has defeated, and can testify to Big Rig's power and devastating striking. Currently riding a 6-fight win streak, Hendricks has proven himself to be a very deserving challenger for GSP's UFC WW Championship.

When this fight does happen, I know it's going to be in front of a sellout arena with at least a million PPV buys.

The most obvious one that comes to my mind, I see just like how Bill Burgess described it.

Round 1 - Hendricks tries to close the distance quickly, throwing caution to the wind, but GSP utilizes his reach and movement to stay away from Hendricks' power. After throwing a huge left that misses, Hendricks gets taken down by a powerful GSP double-leg. Hendricks gets to his feet quickly, but GSP stays on him like stink on ****, giving Hendricks very little room to breathe. Hendricks lands some punches in the clinch, but GSP is also scoring with knees and elbows in the clinch. GSP drops for another double-leg and scores the takedown, scoring points with elbows and punches from the top, controlling the remainder of the round. 10-9 GSP 

Round 2 - The two meet in the center of the octagon. Hendricks throws a few strikes, but none land flush. GSP tastes Hendricks power, but isn't rocked. GSP closes the distance,  and scores another takedown, landing elbows and punces from the top, but Hendricks manages get back to the feet. Hendricks, now more frustrated goes for a takedown of his own, but GSP shows his fantastic grappling game and takedown defense, much like he did against Matt Hughes in their 2nd and 3rd fight. The two break, but GSP keeps the distance with a fast snapping jab, and some versitile and effective kicking. One of which is the spinning back-kick to the body that GSP is so famous for lands to Hendricks body. Hendricks finally finds a way to close the distance, and lands a good left, but gets taken down by GSP and controlled for the remainder of the round. 10-9 GSP 

Round 3 - Hendricks has his most successful round closing the distance and scoring points on the feet. With a devastating left, GSP is rocked. GSP instantly goes for a takedown. Hendricks defends, but GSP pushes Hendricks up against the fence. GSP regains his composure, and towards the end of the round Hendricks starts to wear down significantly, and is taken down by GSP once again. Hendricks gets to his feet, but only to be taken down and controlled by GSP for the remainder of the round. 1 judge sees it 10-9 for GSP, while the other two score it 10-9 for Hendricks. 

Round 4 - Hendricks now worn down from the pace that GSP has been pushing all fight long, starts to show some serious signs of wear. GSP now opts to stand, tagging Hendricks with jabs, kicks, and stays on the move to avoid any of Hendricks punches. Hendricks desparately throws some haymakers, but they fail to connect. GSP answers with more crisp striking. The jab doing the most effective damage. As the round draws into the final minute, GSP scores another takedown, and finishes the round strong. 10-9 GSP

Round 5 - Both fighters show signs of being in a war, but Hendricks looks wiped out. GSP instantly scores a takedown in the first few seconds of the round. As Hendricks scoots towards the cage to get back to his feet, GSP is landing punches and elbows at will. Hendricks manages to get to his feet, but is held against the cage by GSP, both fighters land strikes on the one another, but GSP appears to be landing the more effective strikes. GSP scores another takedown both fighters landing strikes back and forth. GSP from the top, and Hendricks from the bottom. In the last minute, Hendricks somehow gets to his feet. Both fighters fire shots back and forth. Noone is in their seats. Hendricks lands some good shots that rock GSP again, but GSP lands some good strikes as well. They finish the fight strong with the crowd cheering. Two judges see it 10-9 for GSP, 1 judge gives it to Hendricks 10-9

The decision is read 49-46 on all 3 cards for the winner and still the undisputed UFC WW Champion of the World...............Georges "Rush" St. Pierre.

hendricks round 1 brutal knockout !

Hendricks is indeed a deserving opponent.  He has not been given anything free.  He has beaten Sadollah, Brenneman, Waldburger, Pierce, Fitch, Koscheck, Kampmann and Condit.

Quite a list of scalps on his Totem Pole.  

KO's over Sadollah, Brenneman, Waldburger, Fitch and Kampmann.

Decisions over Funch, Grant, Pierce, Koscheck and Condit.

But even given his power, I just cannot see how he can find a way to beat the champ.  The champ just has too many tools and skills and is too deep-seated in those skills.  Even when they know GSP's game-plan, and they do because it doesn't vary that much from fight to fight, they just can't find ways to go over it, around it or under it.  

* Edited at 03.29.2013, 1:54 AM ET *

I bet this fight doesn't happen in 2013..... next year.  I would love to see Maia vs Hendricks in the meantime though.

There is no reason why this fight shouldnt happen in 2013. GSP is back to training, and now its just a matter of picking the right date, and venue to do it. That fight should go down no later then November.

GSP will time Hendricks sloppy big left hand and take him down in rounds 1 and 2. When round 3 starts Hendricks will be breathing heavy and looking tired as he's had to defend himself for the last 10 minutes from his back. This is where GSP comes out and starts picking Hendricks apart. Hendricks will keep trying to throw his big punch only to miss over and over. Johny has great power but from a technical stand point he's light years behind Georges. Johny has good wrestling but in a mma fight nobody is a better wrestler then GSP. 

GSP has the advantage every where in this fight and he will break Matt Hughes' record of most all time wins in the UFC. I will also make the claim that if Anderson beats Weidman in July GSP will tell Rogan in the post fight interview after beating Hendricks that he's relinquishing the ww title and he wants to fight Silva at a catchweight. It will take place at Cowboys stadium and break every record in combat sports. It will be GSP's last fight win or lose and quite possibly Silva's as well.

I am hoping that the fight happens in the summer.  Maybe June or July.  But I have a feeling that they may schedule it later in the fall.  Maybe August or September.

I can see it happening in Aug-Sept for sure.

Jaykool and I are one on this one.  GSP just has too many ways to win.  He controls the opponent, worries him, scores on TDs, jabs and avoids damage, avoids TDs, avoids getting tagged.

He wins points with his TDs, and top control.  He wears out the opponent with constant pressure, aggression, TDs, and feinting TDs. 

Hendricks will do what Kos did.  He will waste round after round, waiting to unload his big punch, all the while losing points everywhere.   Johny is a good opponent but at the end of the day, all his skills and tools will not be enough to take the title from GSP.  But I still think it will be an interesting, entertaining display of MMA.

I think the soonest the fight will happen is in September, but it could be as late as December. It all depends on how healthy both fighters are.

I didn't start out a huge GSP fan, in fact, for the longest time I absolutely couldn't stand the guy. A lot of it had to do with the Matt Hughes and Matt Serra ********, but whether I liked him or not I've always recognized and respected GSP's skill and attributes as a fighter. After his injury, and not seeing him fight for over 18 months, I realized I missed watching him fight. After he defeated Nick Diaz, in the post fight interview with Joe Rogan, GSP showed me that he is one of the most respectful and gracious winners. As much as I'd like to continue to hate the guy, I just can't anymore. GSP is now in the same book for me as Tito Ortiz, Chuck Liddell, Frank Shamrock, and Fedor Emelianenko. Somebody that I would normally root for to lose, but somewhere along the way, somehow I actually became an admirer of their fighting ability, respected what they've done for MMA, and in the end became a fan.

@ Bill Burgess - You, p4pgoat, and I all see eye to eye on this one. GSP has the most well-rounded game in MMA. I just don't see anything that Johnny Hendricks has to offer that GSP isn't going to see coming. Carlos Condit and Josh Koscheck have laid out a blueprint on how to beat Hendricks, and if I know GSP, he's going to perfect that blueprint like he has against everyone else that he has faced thus far in the UFC. 

* Edited at 03.29.2013, 4:31 AM ET *

At the end of the day, Johny Hendricks is hoping to be the new Matt Serra.  Most of GSP's opponents are hoping to be the new Matt Serra.  They all have a puncher's chance, but GSP is committed to there being NO MORE MATT SERRAs!  Once was enough, thank you.

Just like most of Mike Tyson's opponents hoped to be the new Buster Douglas.  

Buster Douglas defeating Mike Tyson, and Serra beating GSP were 2 of the most shocking sports upsets in the annals of sports!  Almost like the 1914 Boston Braves.  

These kinds of shocking upsets, while occurring every so often, are not the smart way to bet or predict.

Most of the 15% of the house that customarily picks against GSP are anti-GSP pickers who don't like him and keep praying he loses.  Must be kind of sad to be disappointed so consistently.  So, keep your fingers crossed that he makes a horrifying, disastrous mistake or someone gets a lucky punch in.  It CAN happen, ya know.  Good luck.

Folks its not wise to bet against: Anderson, Ronda, Bones, and GSP. If I'm wrong then I must have access to bad inaccurate data.

Buster Douglas is not the same as Serra at all Bill. Serra clipped GSP then finished him. Buster Douglas  beat Tyson ass for 10 rounds and then finished him.

Hendricks is no Matt Serra. He has the wrestling and the punching power. GSP definitely won't be able to rag doll him like he did Condit and Diaz.

Outside of Johny landing a puncher's chance punch, can anyone see a path to victory for Hendricks?

And yes, that would be duplicating the Matt Serra blueprint.  Does anyone actually see Johny out-wrestling GSP?  Or, barring a lucky punch, winning a striking contest with GSP?

I can only see one scenario for Johny to win.  The Matt Serra scenario.  One that failed him via Koscheck, Condit, Funch, Grant and Pierce.  

* Edited at 03.29.2013, 8:56 PM ET *

I think you're making sense only because of a technicality Bill.

Yes, no one sees Johny Hendricks winning outside of landing a flush punch. The difference between Matt Serra and Johny Hendricks though is that Matt Serra is an awful striker who usually uses his wrestling and jiu-jitsu to win fights whereas Johny Hendricks' bread and butter IS that punch.

Johny Hendricks beats GSP if he lands as you would say, a "puncher's chance punch". How much of that is based off of chance when you've seen him use that same punch on at least four other guys? You are acting like as if Hendricks has no shot in this fight; Hendricks definitely has a chance and I would say more so than any opponent GSP has ever faced.

Do not underestimate the punch Bill.

I heard the opening lines for this fight pegs Hendricks at a +210 underdog, that's gotta say something.

@Anik  Johny would have a MUCH, MUCH better chance of landing that punch if it were not so out in the open now.  As it is now, everyone is looking out for it.  

GSP has been looking out for that kind of thing ever since his first fight with Serra.  No one will ever be on higher alert to that weapon than GSP.  

Fitch was not really on alert, which is how Johny ambushed him with it.  Kampmann was just sloppy stupid to let that happen.  

But I did make allowance for that event, didn't I?  I said, that 'outside that'.  I hope that Johny doesn't let a romance with that punch dominate all his thinking for the rest of his career.  He has much more to offer than one big punch.  He needs to develop his all-around game.  The UFC is evolving out of the time when a single weapon can win all fights.

If ever there was somebody that would beat GSP, it's Johnny Hendricks.  People underestimate his wrestling, I hate the argument "oh mma wrestling is different then regular wrestling so his championships don't count!" Yes mma wrestling and traditional wrestling is different, but it's still wrestling, Johnny Hendricks will probably be the best wrestler Gsp has fought since Matt Hugh's.  Yes Johnny Hendricks can't do **** once he gets the takedown but he doesn't need to because he will never take gsp down, he'll use his wrestling to stay standing.  Condit did not  "avoid the sloppy left hand". He got hit multiple times, but Condit has a chin made of stone.  Gsps biggest weakness is baking up when standing. The only time Diaz hot gsp standing was when gsp was back peddling, which Hendricks will make him do, and gsps chin is average at best.  People talk about how Hemdricks is a one dimensional strike, but when you do that one dimension so good why would you change? If gsp gets hit, he's going down, and he won't be able to take down Hendricks at will, so what does gsp have to beat Hendricks? His wrestling is neutralized, so he has his jab, but Condit has the same reach and that didn't stop Hendricks.