Carwin vs. Dos Santos Predictions

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Carwin vs. Dos Santos. Let's see what you've got.

@Wolf.. I think you only get an award once.

really. you should be able to pick up as many as you like. maybe its a space thing. too many ribbons. they could just add a number to that one ribbon. say if you had 4 or 5 moderate upset picks. just have the number 4 or 5 on that ribbon. i don't know if thats hard to do or not. not good with inner workings of computer blog stuff.

@wolfman it's a little complicated but hopefully something we could add in the future

Nice idea wolfman.

dos Santos by furious knockout

A rusty Carwin won't be able to land his big punch.

"Rusty" Shane Carwin would be a cool nickname.

I've got JDS by Seagal front kick ko number 3.

@Minotauro I'm hoping we'll get to see a crazy Seagal punch instead of the front kick!

I don't know really who to pick on this fight, because I really like both guys. Carwin has the clear cut size advantage, but JDS is really dangerous on the feet. I think that this fight will come down to if it makes it out of the 1st round or not, and who has the best chin and stamina. I really like Shane Carwin, and I can see him winning this fight in the first round, but I'm going with JDS.

i dont care who wins this fight, i just hope carwin puts jds on his back so jds fanboys can get some proof whether or not hes good off his back

Wow! almost 3 to 1 for Dos Santos!? Give me the slimmed down Carwin with a classic 1st round KO

carwin is up to 28% from a low of 18%

@ hero. if carwin's camp is smart that is what he should do first. go for the takedown immediately.

Ya just to get JDS thinking about it you know...

@Gregory... Lmao . Rusty Shane. Honestly though his nickname should be the architect.

I thought Carwins Record was 12-1?

@thiago nice catch, he is 12-1.  We had a duplicate fight in there with the same date and opponent. Fixed, and 100 points headed your way.

Cool man Nice one .. thank you!..

Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin is a very difficult fight for me to pick, because I am a huge fan of both fighters. They are both very likeable. Both are very respectful and humble competitors. They each have a great stand-up game respectively, and on the ground I feel both fighters are very good, but in different categories. Junior Dos Santos trains with Team Blackhouse, so I would imagine that he's got fantastice BJJ, and Shane Carwin is a Division II Collegiate Wrestling Champion.

Here's my 10-point breakdown of the fight.

1. Mental Strength/Confidence/Gameplan - JDS 8/10, Carwin 7/10 - Junior Dos Santos coming into this fight is riding a 7 fight win streak that with 6 of those wins coming over very highly respected and tough opposition. Like JDS, Shane Carwin is also 12-1. Carwin's last fight was on July 3 of last year which was his first and only loss at the hands of then UFC HW Champion Brock Lesnar. Carwin had a very dominating 1st round, but quickly faded, which eventually led to his 2nd round submission loss to Lesnar. IMO, this is still going to weighing heavily on Carwin's mind. Making sure that he can still be effective outside of the 1st round, will that make him afraid to pull the trigger? Both fighters were prepared to face different opposition, but due to Brock Lesnar pulling out of his fight JDS, Shane Carwin was named Lesnar's replacement as JDS' opponent, so neither fighter is going to have a great amount of time to prepare their respective gameplans for who they are both about to face. Carwin will carry the definitive size and strength advantage, while JDS will probably carry the striking and cardio advantage. With this analysis here, in this category, I have to give JDS a slight advantage.

2. Experience/Level of Opposition - JDS 8/10, Carwin 6/10 - Both fighters are 12-1 coming into this fight, but IMHO, JDS has faced much better opposition. He holds KO/TKO wins over world class, top ranked, legends such as Fabricio Werdum (the man who was the first to snap Fedor's winning streak), Mirko Cro-Cop (Cro-Cop actually submitted to punches, but in my book that's a TKO), and Gilbert Yvel. That's a great resume for any fighter to have, but JDS also holds wins over tough contenders like Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve, and Gabriel Gonzaga. Carwin has a TKO victory over GG as well, but that's just one of only 2 fighters (the other being Frank Mir) that Carwin has faced that has any kind of a respected or known name in MMA. That is why I give a clear cut advantage to JDS.

3. Heart/Determination to win - JDS 8/10, Carwin 6/10 - We've never seen JDS in any trouble or have to overcome adversity, but he has shown that he will do whatever it takes to win a fight. He showed this against Roy Nelson. He had Nelson in trouble in the early going of their fight, but once JDS realized he wasn't going to dispose of Nelson easily, he took his time, picked his shots, and conserved himself to be able to finish the fight. Something Carwin didn't do against Brock Lesnar. In Carwin's only loss, we saw him gas out, give up, and allow himself to be put into a submission by a guy who's submission ability is not what he's known for. Once Carwin was in trouble in his fight against Lesnar, he rolled over and gave up.

4. Stamina/Cardio - JDS 7/10, Carwin 4/10 - I've seen JDS slow down in fights, yes he can go a 3 round distance, but he's not quite as effective in the 3rd as he is in the 1st. JDS has a tendency to lose zip in his punches as the fight continues. Carwin has shown that he can't even get outside of the 1st round, along with a long lay-off from his last fight, I think that Carwin's cardio is in serious question coming into this fight.

5. Endurance/Toughness - JDS 8/10, Carwin 9/10 - Both fighters can take a punch and recover, but because of Carwin's size and from what I've seen in both fighters' fights, I had to give Carwin a slight advantage here.

6. Overall Striking - JDS 10/10, Carwin 9/10 - JDS probably has some of the best technical and powerful striking among the HWs in the UFC, while Carwin's punching power and clinch fighting is probably 2nd to none. During Carwin's 12 fight win streak, he never had a fight go outside of the first round. JDS has 8 KO/TKOs, Carwin has 7 KO/TKOs. I have to give JDS a slight advantage in this category.

7. Wrestling/Overall Grappling - JDS 7/10, Carwin 9/10 - When Carwin is fresh, his wrestling is comparable to Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez, but as a fight wears on, his overall grappling tends to fade drastically. JDS' takedown defense has shown to be pretty effective at this point in his career. I only say this because at this point, I haven't seen JDS taken to the ground and held there for very long. Carwin has a good advantage here, but JDS does train with Mark Munoz, so we might see some dramatic improvement in JDS' overall wrestling and grappling.

8. BJJ/Submissions - JDS 9/10, Carwin 8/10 - Both fighters have won fights via submission, but JDS has only won one fight by an actual submission hold. His other submission victories are due to exhaustion and strikes. Carwin on the other hand has finished 4 opponents by a submission hold (2 RNCs and 2 Guillitone), but they are against lesser opposition. Both fighters only losses are by submission. Both fighters train with very good ground fighting camps, but JDS does train with the Nog brothers, so I have to give a slight advantage to JDS in this category.

9. Strength - JDS 7/10, Carwin 10/10 - Carwin has shown just how strong he is in many fights, while JDS relies more on technique. Carwin outmuscled Brock Lesnar in the early going of their bout back in July of last year. I gave Carwin a clear cut advantage in this category.

10. Speed/Athleticism - JDS 7/10, Carwin 9/10 - Though Carwin is the bigger fighter, I think that he is the faster more athletic fighter. JDS moves smart, but Carwin for a big man moves very quickly. I had to give Carwin the advantage in this category.

Total Score = JDS 79/100, Carwin 72/100

So it looks that on paper JDS is the better fighter, but that's only on paper. Carwin's striking IMO is not as crisp or technical as JDS', but there's the power factor, and Carwin has a clinch game that reminds me of Randy Couture's. Someone with size and strength like that, is very dangerous for any fighter. Especially when you weigh about 30 lbs. less than your opponent at fight time. Also you have Carwin's wrestling ability and athleticism. Good news for JDS, is that this will more than likely only be dangerous for the 1st round, actually (if it goes like the Brock Lesnar fight) the first 3 minutes.

Prediction - If JDS can survive the early onslaught, then I see him pulling out the TKO or submission in the 2nd round. If Carwin comes out tenative becasue he's afraid blowing himself out early, then I see JDS winning the 1st two rounds, and getting the UD. I also see Carwin coming out with something to prove, and if he comes out the way he did against Frank Mir, and muscles JDS around the same way, and JDS doesn't know how to respond, then I see Carwin earning himself a 1st round TKO. Personally I'm going with JDS by 2nd round submission or TKO.