NIck's chances in this fight.

Does anyone actually think Diaz ins this fight? Both Nick and Nate have a history of doing poorly against good wrestlers, and Nick is going against a guy in GSP who is the best wrestler in the Welterweight division, by far. I think GSP will take him down every round and control him for the 50-45 UD. I think his Jiu Jitsu is good enough to hold off Nick's submissions as well.

So, anyone who has Diaz winning, how do you think he wins, and why?

Zero.

With odds at -400 for GSP, that's an implied 80% chance of winning. So that leaves Diaz with a 20% chance according to the money. Sounds about right to me.

The odds are that low because Diaz has a lot of believers that'll bet on him. The real odds should be around -600 for GSP.

Nick struggles against big, strong wrestlers. Just look at Riggs and Sherk. GSP is gonna take him down and work him over for the UD

I certainly am not counting Nick out of the fight, but I definitely don't think his chances are very good.

Nick has to land something big to win, cause he's not going to win rounds against GSP, and it's very unlikely that he'll submit him either.  

Only problem with that, is Diaz is a volume striker, not a power striker.  That pretty much narrows DIaz' path to victory down to.....landing a big liver punch maybe?

Diaz is very durable, and has a great guard to defend himself on the ground, so I don't think he'll get finished.  There just won't be anything he can do to stop GSP from hitting double legs all night long.  

Mayhem14...People always bring up the Riggs and Sherk fights when talking about Diaz' wrestling, which is funny cause those fights barely went to the ground at all.  

Diaz actually outgrappled Sherk pretty handily, but lost the stand up exchanges.

* Edited at 01.02.2013, 10:44 AM ET *

I won't get my hopes up the way I did it with Conduit, too many disappointments for me with my fav. fighters in the last couple of month.

But I still hope Diaz wins it, and I'm probably gonna pick him but GSP is the favorite in this fight by a mile or 10...

But I think he's going to spend much of his time trying not to get taken down and will get pointed to death. I don't think this is going to be a fun fight to see.

Everyone has a puncher's chance.  But that's not the way to bet.  Nick lost to Diego Sanchez and Karo Parisyan back in the day.  Neither of them could hold a candle to GSP.

Nick will face someone who he has never before come remotely close to fighting.  Nick's chances of winning are, to me, less than 15%.  He will need for GSP to make a terrible mistake.  GSP makes fewer mistakes than anyone else.

I predict a similar fight as GSP vs. Condit, or Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz.  Nick has a lot he brings to the table in terms of skills, tools and resources.  But they will all be too little, too few, too futile.  Nick's face will look like raw hamburger lunch meat at the end of 5 rounds.  

 But, he will be rich.  Maybe $1.5m dollars rich.  Not a bad evening for that kind of payoff.

* Edited at 01.02.2013, 11:29 AM ET *

I don't think he even has a punchers chance. I mean whats he doing to do? Play patty cake with a smart wrestler. I thing not. Zero chance he wins...................... and the GSP camp knows it. They praying Johny loses against burger. 

@Anik No doubt, by the time fight week is here we will see GSP -550 to -600 I'm sure. I don't bet real money on that heavy of favorites (learned my lesson with Rich Franklin getting KTFO) but GSP is a lock here.

People who think Diaz has even the slightest of chances need to get off his ballsac.

I'm a huge Diaz fan and I realize his chances are not that great to dethrone GSP but it is a fight and anything can happen. Nick knows how to finish fights and is tough to finish himself so to say he has absolutely no chance is just silly.

20% sounds like a good assessment. I don't see him getting dominated. I think this'll end up something like Condit/GSP. A clear win for GSP, but Diaz will have a moment or 2

I cant wait for the fight.. Gonna be a tough test for GSP....   GO GSP GO

 It is wrong to say that Nick can't win.  I give Nick about a 15% chance of scoring an upset.  But if you think about it, 15% is a terrible bet.  Would anyone bet with only a 15% chance of winning and an 85% chance of losing?  Of course not.  That would be a fool's bet.  

For me, the fun will be that moment when Nick realizes that he is in WAY over his head.  Most guys, when they fight GSP, have that moment when they realize, "What the hell have I gotten myself into?"  

When Nick finally faces GSP in that first round, and he tries to do his usual, and walk GSP down, he will get the shock of his life when GSP stands his ground and starts popping his jab into his face over and over and over, and Nick has no defense.  The look on his face will be priceless.  One of those "Oh ****!" moments.  

Honestly, i would say his chances are about 10%. GSP is better in every aspect of the game maybe except "pure jitz". GSP can outstrike Diaz with jabs, push/leg kicks, superman punches, high kicks. He can take him down at will, and tire Diaz out so his submission attempts wont have any force behind him. GSP has vicious elbows from the guard as seen in the Condit fight, and we all know Diaz's face cuts easily. This fight can end in many ways. Decision, submission, GnP TKO, but Diaz will always be on the receiving of the beatdown anytime he fights GSP. Only advantage Diaz has in this fight is **** talking, and middle fingers. 

I expect this fight to go much the same way as Henderson vs. Nate Diaz.  Or Condit vs. GSP.  It will be very lopsided.  

I love Nick and am very, very happy that this fight is finally happening.  Nick deserves this fight, but maybe not at this very moment.  He vacated his Strikeforce title to get this fight.  Nick is a great fighter.  I have been his fan ever since he lost to Diego Sanchez in 2005.  

This will be a typical GSP fight of dominance and Nick will look just awful at the end of it.  To those who doubt me, I say a big, "Fooey, you're full of hooey."

And this summer, when GSP gives Johny Hendricks his earned title fight, it will be no different.  Johny will pose no special problems for him.  GSP will give him the same drubbing.  He may opt to take it to the ground but I don't think GSP will fear standing and banging with Johny, just to prove to the entire world, who the Alpha Male of Striking is in the UFC WW division.  If he decides to stand and bang with Hendricks, the world will see who the better striker is.

GSP has more striking tools than Hendricks.  There is far more to striking than raw power, as JDS recently found out.  Striking has an entire galaxy of skills and tools and GSP's are more advanced than those of Johny.

Just in case anyone doubts it.

* Edited at 01.02.2013, 9:35 PM ET *

Huge Diaz fan but I don't think his odds are good.