Contender Series 2023: Week 7

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Gaziev vs. Velasco
Shamil Gaziev, TKO, R2
Ugly slopfest even for HW

Jones vs. Allen
JaCobi Jones, TKO, R2
Odd matchmaking..or is it.

Kruschewsky vs. Mantello
Dylan Mantello, TKO, R2
I'll take the upset better comp.

Did you do tape study on Mantello?
Watch Mantello's most recent loss and Kruschewsky's most recent win and tell me if you still got Mantello

Gaziev vs. Velasco
Shamil Gaziev, TKO, R1
Easy

Jones vs. Allen
JaCobi Jones, DEC
Close fight

Alencar vs. Luciano
Talita Alencar, SUB, R1
Another sub to brasil in the dwcs fem

Kruschewsky vs. Mantello
Kaynan Kruschewsky, SUB, R1
Mantello is so bad

da Silva vs. Silva
Igor da Silva, SUB, R2
Da Silva looks so good

First time trying to really study tape and do handicapping for fights so hopefully this isn't too messy. Might not have time to get to Alencar vs. Luciano but hopefully can get Jones/DJA and Gaziev/Velasco done before tomorrow night. Any feedback is appreciated. Mods if this is too long or boring just tell me to **** lol.

Igor da Silva vs. Jhonata Silva (Pinnacle: Igor da Silva -234, Jhonata Silva +192... 67.17/32.83 no vig % odds)
Wasn't particularly impressed with either of these guys as far as flyweight prospects go.

Igor had pretty average athleticism and flashed some hand speed when he wanted to enter the pocket and throw, but his striking overall lacked precision and control. He had decent takedowns and seemed competent enough on top to maintain position, but his ground game didn't stand out as particularly imposing. I thought his submissions were interesting - he is creative and has good enough body control to make quick adjustments while working to lock things up.

Jhonata had a very similar athletic profile, but I was a little less impressed with his ability in other areas. He has a good chin and a tricky head kick, but his hands are slow and inaccurate. If they get in the pocket and start throwing I think he takes harder shots but has a better chance of standing through it than Igor. His takedown defense looked absolutely miserable though. He is quick to scramble and has the balance to get free on occasion, but if Igor gets top control and maintains it in R1 he should coast. Look for that as a tip-off in live betting.

I think Igor's path to victory is consistent pressure in the clinch and on the ground with the potential for a submission.

Jhonata's path will be patience with the standup and hopefully setting up that head kick or catching Igor in a brawl. It would surprise me if Igor ends up pursuing that type of fight, but I would slightly lean Jhonata if they end up just standing and banging.

Most likely outcome
Igor da Silva by Unanimous Decision

The combination of similar caliber stand-up and athleticism makes me think it will be hard for one to pull away standing barring someone getting clipped. The historical rates of fight win method skew very heavily towards decision at flyweight and I don't think either of these guys have the type of dynamic ability standing or on the ground to push those historical rates too far to the side.

Igor by sub is the second most likely outcome in my opinion, as Jhonata's lack of takedown defense makes me think he could get steamrolled on the ground. If Igor doesn't just grind him down over 3 rounds then it's probably because he caught him with a sub somewhere throughout the process. I think the DWCS contract factor will boost the odds of chasing a sub or going for something big too.

Probability estimates
Igor da Silva win: 69%
Jhonata Silva win: 31%

Igor da Silva KO: 12.42%
Igor da Silva SUB: 24.15%
Igor da Silva DEC: 32.43%

Jhonata Silva KO: 9.92%
Jhonata Silva SUB: 2.48%
Jhonata Silva DEC: 18.60%

Betting
Not enough value here to warrant betting on the ML listed above IMO. I think the possibility of Jhonata clipping Igor or that they pursue a stand-up fight are just a little too high to put money on Igor. If the line gets down to like -160 Igor or something in that ball park I'd love it though. I don't know if anything distance or method will interest me unless Igor Sub +360 is available. If Jhonata hits +250 ML it could be worth a play on the hopes of stuffing the TD and keeping things standing. Again - I'd pursue this as a live bet once I think that question gets answered. If Jhonata stuffs a few attempts and is +150 ML or something then it could be an interesting play.

Final Thoughts
Hope Igor wins. Younger, more potential, better overall fighter, won't get exposed instantly on the ground vs. UFC caliber guys. If Jhonata flatlines him and gets a contract he's going to get absolutely dusted by the first grappler he faces. Ideally Igor wins, gets a couple years to improve his game, then comes back when he is a little more ready. He's an interesting prospect but he's a little too green right now I think.

(Broke these two predictions up just so my word wall isn't as bad)

Kaynan Kruschewsky vs. Dylan Mantello (Pinnacle: Kruschewsky -243, Mantello +198... 67.86/32.14 no vig % odds)
Really interested in this fight and think it will be higher level than the flyweights.

I really liked Kruschewsky's striking. He isn't particularly agile or athletic but he has a really diverse tool set as a striker. Mixed kicks, knees, elbows, and punches together in unpredictable ways to tear up his last opponent. He's more of a "walk you down and tee off" type of guy than a distance striker but he has good power and won't overextend while throwing combos. Good chin. Just really well-rounded regardless of where he strikes and how he does it. I think he's an adequate athlete with decent conditioning and toughness even though he isn't necessarily a top end guy in terms of his physical tools. His ground game and clinch game were a bit lacking and he doesn't present much of a threat in those areas, but I don't think he's going to struggle with those against Mantello. It would be hard to see him finishing it on the ground w/ a sub though.

Video on Mantello was rather limited so I had a hard time getting a feel for his ability on the ground or in the clinch. He was absolutely toasted trying to stop takedowns against Archie Colgan but lack of recent video means it's hard to tell how much he has improved since then. Not too sure on his ground game either, so there's some uncertainty in this prediction once it hits the ground. I'll assume he isn't going to sub Kruschewsky though. As a striker I had very mixed feelings. He has good length and a long jab that he can work behind, but he is incredibly incredibly hittable. He gets connected with almost every time in longer exchanges and every time it looks jarring when he takes a shot. He has a good head kick that comes out relatively quickly and he can win on the outside with the jab/straight or kicks but those weapons get mitigated very quickly once he gets in pocket. I worry about the chin.

I think Kruschewsky's path to win will be to put on the pressure, put him against the cage and open up with body shots, then connect with something high to put Mantello out. Mantello's hands are consistently way too low and Kruschewsky's aren't, and I think if he starts landing leg kicks and body shots he's going to get Mantello to drop them even more and open himself up.

Mantello's path to win will probably be to either introduce something new/unseen in the grappling in hope of finding a sub or to simply manage distance very effectively and poke the jab until he can start following it up with straights and kicks. If he starts throwing the real wide hooks he likes he's going to put himself in danger. I think it's a very tall order vs. Kruschewsky to maintain that distance and find a shot to hurt him with though.

Most likely outcome
Kaynan Kruschewsky by KO - probably a hook or elbow once he gets him against the fence in R1 or R2

Probability estimates
Kaynan Kruschewsky win: 78%
Dylan Mantello win: 22%

Kaynan Kruschewsky KO: 39%
Kaynan Kruschewsky SUB: 9.36%
Kaynan Kruschewsky DEC: 29.64%

Dylan Mantello KO: 4.40%
Dylan Mantello SUB: 2.20%
Dylan Mantello DEC: 15.40%

Betting
Little bit more to chew on with this one. I think the uncertainty of Mantello's ground game will likely keep me from doing too much with this, but I'm going to throw a little bit on Kruschewsky ML if the price gets a little more favorable (like -230). Kruschewsky by KO or Mantello by DEC could be other interesting options at the right price. I doubt the Kruschewsky price is as friendly as KO +200 but that would be a play for me. Mantello DEC +750 or better would also be interesting - Kruschewsky's chin is strong enough that I think he hangs on even if Mantello starts tearing him up with the jab and straight. We'll see when props start dropping but those are what I'd be looking for.

Final Thoughts
Rooting for Kruschewsky here from a quality of fighter standpoint. Way more developed striker and I think he could hold his own against a good portion of the division in the stand-up. I doubt he's the type to ever crack top 15 without improvements to his grappling and takedown defense but he could have a cool 5-6 fight run with some big KOs. Certainly the type of guy I'd want to see testing future prospects. Mantello on the other hand seems like he'll get smoked by anyone who has decent power and won't back down to the reach difference. If he hasn't improved his grappling he'll get crushed that way too. 

@Rah123 

you’re like the good terminator going back in time to save us from AI cuck picks or MMA “cappers” like MMAcuckteller

@Volkan 

you are not seriously comparing Archie to Kaynan I hope.

@AyyLmaonnaise 

and has a horrible gas tank that's made worse with wild hooks that he keeps missing. 

* Edited at 09.18.2023, 7:17 PM ET *

@*****_swaggins 

Clean up your knees and zip Rah's fly up when you are done.

I stand by my little quote at the bottom

Silva vs Silva is this week’s head scratcher. Silva is a cage warrior Brazilian? Is that even possible?

@DRstoppage 

Brazilians are everywhere in MMA nowadays. There's even some in the ACA! And that's in Russia!

@CrystalOctahedron 

watch some tape.

* Edited at 09.18.2023, 9:17 PM ET *

@Volkan 

I watched all tapes available on both fighters, did you? 

@CrystalOctahedron 

I watched all the tape I found. As there was not so much tape on Mantello. I saw that he got touched up by anyone he fought, while Kaynan had a few rough fights, where he finished all of them after overcoming the adversity. I also saw that Kaynan increases a lot between fights. He is a complete different fighter than he was 5-10 fights ago I witnessed. 
Kaynan was also piecing up his opponent before getting KO'd

* Edited at 09.18.2023, 10:12 PM ET *

Gaziev vs. Velasco
Shamil Gaziev, TKO
Gaziev has the experience advantage + has fought more people with experience than Velasco. It's obese heavyweights man one of them is gonna get knocked the **** out.

Jones vs. Allen
JaCobi Jones, SUB, R1
Jones has fought more people with actually winning ******* records?????

Alencar vs. Luciano
Stephanie Luciano, DEC
IDK man I think Luciano has been fighting more higher caliber opponents, seemingly due to the fact the combined record of her last five foes are 12-1-1 in comparison to Alencar's, who's entire combined foe's record is 4-5-1.

Kruschewsky vs. Mantello
Kaynan Kruschewsky, TKO, R2
Experience advantage and less of a journeymen fought at the time concentration.

da Silva vs. Silva
Igor da Silva, DEC
Two guys named Silva. Da is from a Chute Boxe though so iId prolly look at him more favorably.

Gonna be at least 3 good fun fights maybe all like last week!

@AyyLmaonnaise 

Isn't Lapilus juiced one against Kaynan?