UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

This fight card is so good. Maybe the best we had in the last 5 years. CAN'T WAIT FOR SATURDAY

Dern vs. Hill
Mackenzie Dern, DEC
The pick Is Dern but I just don’t know what she will look like in the 4/5 if hill is pushing a pace need to go watch some more tape on this one before I lock in a bet

Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez, DEC
Don’t sleep on Edman man’s built like a kitten with huge rib cage but has the heart of a lesbian . Edman is gonna coming out hard in that first round with huge kicks and one , twos down the pipe but he can get cought we have seen it way to much and Edman is more then willing to rolling . But fluffy has toughed out some hard round with like the likes of Marc BARRIAULT & BJJ world champ Viera who he beat at his own game . I think this fight is harder then it looks on paper I think Edman should be respected a little bit more kids 25 years old been fighting in the UFC against power punch’s like Brunson & Brad Tavares he broke his loosing streak witch I’m sure felt like a weight off his back his not at the top fighting killers as a kid anymore but his got a tough fight here . it’s a coin flip for me I think Hernandez survives some early adversity nearly gets subbed himself and ends up getting the 29/28 split decisions win

Ducote vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, DEC
I just don’t really care for woman’s mma I’m not going to sit back and watch hours of tape on either fighter when I have seen them both fight and havnt been impressed but I think Loopy has looked the better of the too . If you see something let me know about bets

Fialho vs. Buckley
Joaquin Buckley, TKO, R2
Down in weight for Buckley agaist another Kill cliff fighter he will have the reach advantage and I think it shouldn’t be to bad of a weight cut for him . I think his power will come down well at welterweight but I think someone’s getting put out here

Johnson vs. Ferreira
Michael Johnson, TKO, R3
This my Dog of the week I think I just think Michael Johnson boxing will be to good Ferreira . I know Johnson has been subbed a fair few times in career and Ferreira has a heaps of submission wins but I just don’t think he has the best wrestling to get it where he wants and Johnson has awesome TD defence I think Johnson gets it done in 2-3 rd .

Maheshate vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, TKO, R3
Anther 50/50 imo from what we have seen from both men but Borshchev accolades say he should be much more Russian world champ kickboxer but we just havnt seen it but I think he should be fine in this one against Maheshate if rafa garica wins a decision win he should atleast scrap this one inn

Kowalkiewicz vs. Demopoulos
Vanessa Demopoulos, DEC
Siding with the fav in Kowalkiewicz what ever it is and I couldn’t care less hate this fight kinda of Milfs but

Cosce vs. Urbina
Gilbert Urbina, DEC
Look I want to pick Urbina I really do brother was a older day UFC fighter young went threw the TUF house at I think age 22-23 fought some decent comp there was a late replace for the finale where he looked good agaist Bryan battle who is on a solid run since winning the showing only getting wrestle ****** by a Russian and loosing his taken almost 3 years off and been traning non stop in the PI since then I think the improvement will be awesome but I just don’t know how he will go against such a solid hype pace wrestle in Cosce . I was picking Cosce but I’m backing flipping while I write this **** it ! Only a pick no bet

Latifi vs. Nascimento
Rodrigo Nascimento, DEC
Nasicmento should be strong enough and sauced up enough to keep Latifi off him I thought he retired anyway I’m not picking him it’s just a money grab if I’m being honest . Siding with the better striker , stronger fighter much younger I think if he can just keep him at bay for 15 mins with the 1,2 not rush anything and give Latifi his hips he gets this one done /29/28 could be boring

Hooper vs. Fiore
Nick Fiore, TKO, R2
I know Nick Fiore is very green in his UFC career but he took on Rebeki in his last fight on short notice betters had him to get knocked out in every Parlay and showed he could hand with the much bigger more stronger fighter who imo would run straight threw chase hopper inside a round . Hopper come into the UFC as BJJ wiz kid but his wrestling just isn’t good enough to get to we’re he can dominate with his BJJ in the past when chase has surprise most is when his been getting smoked by a full grown man and he grabs a sub but I just don’t think his got stand up to be in the UFC maybe with the right fights he can stay here and build a career for a bit longer or maybe I’m wrong and we see massive improve his only 23 things can switch on out of nowhere and start clicking when your that age and it almost seems overnight but I just think Fiore showed he can stay in these grinding fights with much stronger opponents I think Nike find a round 1/2 KO and chase is shooting legs like Ryan hall . Someone needs to get chase on a juice cycle and get him strictly look at how big O’Malley got

Leonardo vs. Silva
Natália Silva, TKO, R2
Simple pick here Leonardo is trash and Silva is decent I think Leonardo is only going to try and grapple and we see a stoppage in this one . The last 3 times she’s been Knocked out was all in the 2nd round Silva is coming off a round 3 KO I think the best play here betting wise is Silva round 2,3 maybe we get a decent price early .

Sato vs. Gorimbo
Takashi Sato, DEC
Aw man tough one here . I honestly think that Sato is the better all round MMA fight I know his on a massive skid being 1-4 in his last five but his still on 32 he has shown awesome grappling ability against the like the likes of Gunner Nelson Belal Muhammad as of late. It’s do or die for Sato Imo Themba Gorimbo to me is more of a BJJ fight then opposed to a striker like a lot of people seem to think because his so big for the divisions but he only has one KO back in 2017 . I really wasn’t impressed with him at all in the AJ fletcher fight giving up some very easy and dominant positions when grappling and I just think if you do that with Sato he will jump on you with heavy ground and pound . I think if Sato can use good head movement and keep this fight standing he will be the much better off fighter . I think he has the ability to scramble and catch a wizzer with his high level Judo . It’s a 50/50 fight imo and so do odds makers . I think it goes the distance but Gorimbo has been finished by KO in the second twice now . There is a chance Gorimbo catch’s Sato with a high kick that wraps around like battle did but I just don’t see it and his had a good 9 month break since that bad KO

@Gregory 

Unblock @FishRat account !

Strange that people are on Michael Johnson as a dog. Just because Ferreira is on a 3-fight skid, is 38 years old, hasn't fought in 18 months and hasn't won a fight in 40 months and has a brawling pressure style where he breaks people down in the pocket, a style that taxes the physicality of a fighter to its limits.. wait a minute those are pretty good reasons to fade someone.

* Edited at 05.16.2023, 7:01 AM ET *

The parts you reference about his style are on point, but there's really no comparing the last 4 opponents for each of these guys. Ferreira has fought way better competition in pretty much the same time frame. Michael Johnson is exactly the kind of opponent he should be fighting at this point. 

Johnson is a scorecard away from being on a 3 fight win streak though, which is definitely hard to ignore. Really is a very hard fight to call. I think I have to lean Johnson. 

Yeah I'm still capping the fight, might end up on either side of it. I don't think it's strange if people are on Johnson though. This is going to be tough to predict no matter what with Ferreira's away time and his age with the way he fights which is a young man's fight style. Johnson is always unreliable to add to the mix.

If Ferreira was getting outclassed in his last three, I’d say Johnson all day. While he is clearly on the decline, those last three fights were all insanely competitive. I’ll cut him some slack on the gillespie fight; he took that short notice & missed weight, as a result he got broken by the pace. On a full camp, his cardio is more than okay & he can fight at a maddening pace for three rounds. I highly recommend everyone watch his current losing streak; not only is it super entertaining, but man the scrambling he was able to do in his old age, against someone like gamrot is pretty insane. The one thing that’s remained consistent throughout Johnson’s inconsistent career is his grappling. He’s got half off his loss by sub & his grappling as a whole is hilariously bad. Ferreira on the other hand, is a second degree black belt, and has bjj so good he can just pull guard & subsequently create a scramble to take the back. After seeing Johnson vs Moises, I will never trust Johnson against anyone with competent grappling. I could quite literally see a scenario where CDF can’t get it down, so he just pulls guard and subs Johnson out of nowhere

@andygonzalezmma2 go ahead, keep talking back.

Natália Silva is definitely going to  win by Knockout ... because she is a knockout !!   Victoria will have to put her ugly mug on the canvas.  Better luck next time buttercup

I'm at a crossroads with this one. I've been contemplating Dern for a few weeks , but after meticulously analyzing tape for the past 6 hours, I was finding it easier to make a definitive choice on this one. Dern’s stand-up game appears to be quite rudimentary, relying primarily on a basic 1-2 combination, with her chin held high and her forward pressure . She seems to just walk fowards no mater what with little head movement it’s almost like she just wants to hand fight to pull guard or she’s just praying you don’t angle off the cage so she can get a clinch and pull guard or just make you carry her weight . This style seems to align well with Hill's approach, and I've noticed many people pointing out that if it were a three-round fight, Hill would be the obvious pick. However, the fact that it's scheduled for five rounds doesn't carry as much weight for me. Although Hill has shown signs of fatigue in earlier three-round bouts, in her recent fights, she has maintained a high pace for the full fifteen minutes and still had some gas left in the tank. Additionally, the high pace she was gassing out at was against opponents who couldn't demand the same level of cardio as Dern. Therefore, I don't believe Dern possesses the ability to push Hill's cardio to its limits. I believe Hill will maintain distance and establish a higher work rate in this fight. In her most recent bout, she landed an impressive 180 significant strikes, while Dern typically lands around 75 on a good night. When Dern presses forward, Hill should be capable of keeping her back off the cage and angling out, utilizing her footwork and movement. Moreover, Dern's clinch game appears to be a weakness. She often absorbs solid knees to the body and impactful elbows during exits. This poses a significant vulnerability in her takedown attempts, as she frequently absorbs strikes en route to getting her opponents to the ground. Nevertheless, it's worth acknowledging that Dern demonstrates resilience in taking those shots, albeit considering the competitive nature of the women's strawweight division. After conducting thorough research, I am confident in selecting Hill as the underdog fighter in this matchup. With Dern's low 11% takedown accuracy and Hill's solid 70% takedown defense, I anticipate Hill being able to keep the fight standing, land effective strikes, and maintain mobility while avoiding being pinned against the cage. While Hill can engage in the clinch to some extent, she must be cautious of Dern's guard pulls or potential body triangle attempts, which can be detrimental and force Hill to carry Dern for a length of time or until she gets it to the mat. Additionally, Another reasons I favor Hill in this matchup is Dern's inability to land significant damage.We've seen that judges are now not rewarding effective grappling if damage is not scored mere lay-and-pray tactics fail to secure victories. Taking all these factors into account, I predict a close fight with Hill edging out most of the rounds on pure output and Dern not having the ability to get the fight we’re she needs it .48/47